NFL Rankings - 7 Jan

The NFL season is heading into its final weekend, with 11 teams already in the playoffs, but only 1 team, the Packers, know which seed they will have at week's end. There are 5 teams fighting for the final 2 spots in the AFC, and just 2 fighting over the final spot in the NFC, and every seed in the AFC has at least 4 teams who could end up in that spot, making every AFC game this weekend matter when it comes to playoff seeding. Here are my full current rankings, with a breakdown of playoff odds below, and my picks at the bottom:

				Actual		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Buffalo	-8.393	10	6	11	6	A4
2	5	New England	-6.948	10	6	11	6	A5
3	2	Tampa Bay	-6.93	12	4	13	4	N3
4	3	Dallas	-6.906	11	5	12	5	N4
5	4	Kansas City	-6.7	11	5	12	5	A2
6	9	Green Bay	-6.107	13	3	14	3	N1
7	8	Arizona	-5.843	11	5	12	5	N5
8	6	Indianapolis	-5.508	9	7	10	7	A6
9	7	LA Rams	-5.48	12	4	13	4	N2
10	10	San Francisco	-3.793	9	7	9	8	OUT
11	13	Tennessee	-3.729	11	5	12	5	A1
12	11	Cincinnati	-3.616	10	6	11	6	A3
13	12	Philadelphia	-2.553	9	7	9	8	N6
14	16	LA Chargers	-1.586	9	7	10	7	A7
15	18	Seattle	-1.316	6	10	6	11
16	14	New Orleans	-1.249	8	8	9	8	N7
17	19	Baltimore	-0.468	8	8	9	8
18	15	Minnesota	-0.354	7	9	8	9
19	20	Cleveland	0.7858	7	9	7	10
20	17	Denver	0.9253	7	9	7	10
21	22	Pittsburgh	2.0353	8.5	7.5	8.5	8.5
22	23	Las Vegas	2.6314	9	7	9	8
23	21	Miami	2.8772	8	8	8	9	OUT
24	26	Chicago	3.9932	6	10	6	11
25	24	Washington	4.4505	6	10	7	10
26	25	Carolina	5.0238	5	11	5	12
27	27	NY Giants	7.3521	4	12	4	13
28	28	Detroit	7.4028	2.5	13.5	2.5	14.5
29	29	Atlanta	7.682	7	9	7	10
30	30	Houston	8.5953	4	12	4	13
31	31	NY Jets	9.6241	4	12	4	13
32	32	Jacksonville	11.761	2	14	2	15

Playoff Odds

NFC

Green Bay

#1 - 100%

LA Rams

#2 - 57%

#3 - 9%

#4 - 6%

#5 - 28%

If the Rams win, they will be the #2 seed. If they lose and Arizona wins, they will be the #5 seed. If they lose and Arizona loses, they could end up anywhere from 2 thru 4 depending on what Tampa Bay and Dallas do. 

Tampa Bay

#2 - 37%

#3 - 63%

Tampa needs a win and a Rams loss to move up, but they can't move down from #3.

Dallas

#3 - 6%

#4 - 94%

Dallas can technically move up to the #2 seed if they win and the Rams, Buccaneers, and Cardinals all lose, but the odds of that happening are extremely slim. They own the tiebreaker over the Rams, which could help them earn the #3 seed if the Rams and Cardinals both lose while the Cowboys win, but they are almost definitely going to end up at #4.

Arizona

#2 - 6%

#3 - 22%

#5 - 72%

The Cardinals can reach #2 if the Rams and Buccaneers lose while the Cardinals win, and would be #3 if the Buccaneers win instead in that scenario. They own the tiebreaker over Dallas, so they can't end up at #4. If the Rams win or the Cardinals lose, they will end up at #5.

Philadelphia

#6 - 39%

#7 - 61%

The Eagles can move up to #6 if they win and the 49ers lose, otherwise they will be #7.

San Francisco

#6 - 61%

#7 - 10%

Miss - 29%

The 49ers miss the playoffs if they lose and New Orleans wins. They will be #6 with a win, and #7 with a loss, and Saints loss, and an Eagles win.

New Orleans

#7 - 29%

Miss - 71%

If the Saints win and the 49ers lose, they will be #7, otherwise they are out.

AFC

Tennessee

#1 - 75%

#2 - 12%

#3 - 12%

#4 - 1%

The Titans just need to beat Houston to be #1, or they would still get there if Kansas City and Cincinnati also lose. Dropping to #4 would require wins by Kansas City, Cincinnati, and New England, along with losses by Buffalo and Tennessee.

Kansas City

#1 - 18%

#2 - 48%

#3 - 17%

#4 - 17%

If the Chiefs win and the Titans lose, Kansas City will be #1. They earn at least #2 with a win, but could drop as far as #4 with a loss.

Cincinnati

#1 - 6%

#2 - 23%

#3 - 33%

#4 - 38%

The Bengals can reach #1 with a win, plus losses by Tennessee and Kansas City, plus either a win by Buffalo or a loss by New England. 

Buffalo

#2 - 16%

#3 - 38%

#4 - 44%

#7 - 2%

If the Bills lose and New England wins, they would drop to #7. A win or a Patriots loss will earn them a spot anywhere from 2 thru 4, but they can't earn the #1 seed.

New England

#1 - 1%

#2 - 1%

#5 - 74%

#6 - 16%

#7 - 8%

New England can become the #1 seed win a win and losses by the Bills, Titans, and Chiefs. They earn #2 with a win and a Bills loss plus a loss by either the Titans or Chiefs, and can technically earn #3 as well with a win, a Bills loss, and wins by Kansas City and Tennessee. A loss or a Bills win leaves them in a wild card spot.

Indianapolis

#5 - 17%

#6 - 47%

#7 - 25%

Miss - 11%

A loss to Jacksonville would put the Colts in danger, but not out. If they lose, they would needs wins by the Ravens, Raiders, and Dolphins to sneak them back in.

LA Chargers

#6 - 7%

#7 - 54%

Miss - 39%

The Chargers could technically get to #5 with a win and losses by the Colts and the Bills (to the Jaguars and Jets), so they are looking at #6 or #7 win a win, and they are out with a loss.

Las Vegas

#5 - 9%

#6 - 30%

#7 - 2%

Miss - 59%

If the Raiders win, they are in, most likely as the #6 seed. They can still get in with a loss, but it would require the Colts and Steelers to lose as well.

Pittsburgh

#7 - 6%

Miss - 94%

The Steelers need a win plus a Colts loss to get in, and they would be the #7 seed if they make it.

Baltimore

#7 - 3%

Miss - 97%

The Ravens need to win, plus have the Chargers, Colts, and Dolphins all lose in order to grab the last playoff spot.

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(2) Chiefs over (7) Chargers

(6) Colts over (3) Bengals

(4) Bills over (5) Patriots

(2) Rams over (7) Saints

(3) Buccaneers over (6) Eagles

(4) Cowboys over (5) Cardinals

Divisional

(6) Colts over (1) Titans

(4) Bills over (2) Chiefs

(1) Packers over (4) Cowboys

(3) Buccaneers over (2) Rams

Conference

(4) Bills over (6) Colts

(1) Packers over (3) Buccaneers

Super Bowl

(4) Bills over (1) Packers