NFL Playoff Preview - 2022

I've broken down the odds of each team making it through each round of the NFL playoffs and winning the Super Bowl, and this season's playoffs are the most wide-open I can remember, which is something I also said last year. Last season, 4 teams had between a 12% and 17% chance of winning the title, but this year there are 6 teams between 10% and 14%, making this year even harder to predict. That being said, I did correctly predict 7 of the 8 division champions in the preseason, with Baltimore's late-season collapse the only thing standing between me and perfection. Here are the current playoff odds:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

1. Titans - 100% (bye)

1. Packers - 100% (bye)

3. Chiefs - 72.7%

4. Buccaneers - 67.0%

5. Bengals - 66.9%

6. Cowboys - 62.6%

7. Bills - 58.7%

8. Rams - 53.2%

9. Cardinals - 46.8%

10. Patriots - 41.3%

11. 49ers - 37.4%

12. Raiders - 33.1%

13. Eagles - 33.0%

14. Steelers - 27.3%

Home teams are favored in every single game this weekend, though a couple of them could and should be pretty close.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Packers - 56.7%

2. Titans - 56.5%

3. Chiefs - 40.4%

4. Buccaneers - 36.4%

5. Bills - 33.0%

6. Cowboys - 32.6%

7. Bengals - 28.4%

8. Rams - 24.0%

9. Patriots - 22.6%

10. Cardinals - 21.2%

11. 49ers - 16.5%

12. Eagles - 12.6%

13. Raiders - 9.6%

14. Steelers - 9.5%

The #1 seeds get a boost here because of the bye week, so they only have to win once to get this far, and they are followed by the two most recent Super Bowl champs.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Packers - 28.0%

2. Titans - 26.1%

3. Chiefs - 22.9%

4. Bills - 21.1%

5. Buccaneers - 20.2%

6. Cowboys - 18.7%

7. Bengals - 12.4%

8. Patriots - 11.9%

9. Rams - 11.3%

10. Cardinals - 10.0%

11. 49ers - 7.2%

12. Eagles - 4.5%

13. Raiders - 2.9%

14. Steelers - 2.8%

The top 3 seeds in each conference have a little separation here, but nobody is really out of it.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Packers - 14.0%

2. Chiefs - 11.82%

3. Bills - 11.81%

4. Titans - 11.4%

5. Buccaneers - 11.2%

6. Cowboys - 10.6%

7. Patriots - 6.0%

8. Rams - 5.6%

9. Bengals - 5.4%

10. Cardinals - 5.0%

11. 49ers - 3.4%

12. Eagles - 1.9%

13. Steelers - 0.90%

14. Raiders - 0.87%

Green Bay is a slight favorite because of home field all the way to the Super Bowl, but there is a logjam of other teams behind them with legitimate odds of winning it all, and another 4 with a decent chance.

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Chiefs over (7) Steelers

(3) Bills over (6) Patriots

(4) Bengals over (5) Raiders

(2) Buccaneers over (7) Eagles

(3) Cowboys over (6) 49ers

(4) Rams over (5) Cardinals

Divisional

(1) Titans over (4) Bengals

(2) Chiefs over (3) Bills

(4) Rams over (1) Packers

(3) Cowboys over (2) Buccaneers

Conference

(2) Chiefs over (1) Titans

(3) Cowboys over (4) Rams

Super Bowl

(3) Cowboys over (2) Chiefs