NFL Rankings and Weekend Predictions

2 of last week's top 3 teams lost on Sunday, creating 2 openings behind the Broncos, which were quickly filled by teams that have been improving every week. There are now only 3 undefeated teams, each of which has risen into the top 5, and there are also 4 winless teams, 3 of which are ranked at the very bottom this week. Here are the full rankings through week 5, along with each team's predicted final record.

Rank	LW	Team	Rec	Rating	Pred	Change	Undef %
1	1	Denver	5-0	-14.3324	14-2		7.3
2	4	New Orleans	5-0	-11.8111	13-3	+1	3.8
3	5	Indianapolis	4-1	-11.4118	12-4	+1
4	2	Seattle	4-1	-10.5883	13-3	-1
5	8	Kansas City	5-0	-6.99566	12-4	+1	0.4
6	18	Green Bay	2-2	-5.85158	10-6	+2
7	9	Miami	3-2	-5.56304	11-5	+1
8	21	San Francisco	3-2	-4.85592	10-6	+2
9	7	Baltimore	3-2	-4.79067	10-6	-1
10	6	New England	4-1	-3.33345	10-6	-1
11	3	Carolina	1-3	-2.13144	7-9	-4
12	17	Cleveland	3-2	-2.08882	9-7	+1
13	16	Detroit	3-2	-1.69582	10-6
14	14	Dallas	2-3	-1.169	8-8	-1
15	23	Cincinnati	3-2	-1.04921	9-7	+3
16	20	Chicago	3-2	-0.57474	9-7
17	10	Tennessee	3-2	-0.37939	9-7	-1
18	27	Arizona	3-2	0.133662	8-8	+2
19	15	Atlanta	1-4	1.747042	5-11	-1
20	11	Buffalo	2-3	2.41316	7-9	-2
21	13	San Diego	2-3	2.477629	6-10	-2
22	26	Oakland	2-3	2.645634	7-9	+2
23	25	Minnesota	1-3	3.079386	6-10
24	22	Tampa Bay	0-4	3.734453	5-11	+1
25	19	NY Jets	3-2	3.944665	7-9
26	24	Philadelphia	2-3	4.678349	7-9
27	12	Houston	2-3	5.07968	6-10	-3
28	28	Washington	1-3	5.193757	6-10	+1
29	31	Saint Louis	2-3	11.03201	4-12	+1
30	30	Pittsburgh	0-4	11.13544	2-14
31	29	NY Giants	0-5	15.5164	2-14	-2
32	32	Jacksonville	0-5	18.84308	1-15

Green Bay is the best of the 2-loss teams, as the Pack is still perfect at Lambeau but winless in two close road games against good teams. The schedule is not getting any easier, with a trip to Super Bowl champ Baltimore this week followed by a visit from surprising division leader Cleveland. They have already had their bye week, which means no rest until January at the earliest.

One of those losses came against the San Francisco 49ers, who have finally gotten things back on track after losing big back-to-back against Seattle and Indianapolis in September. Their last two wins have come by an average of 28 points, and the last one came against Houston, one of the top teams from last season and still considered a contender by many.

New England is the lowest-ranked of the 1-loss teams, mostly due to the quality of their 4 wins, which have come against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league. Not only did they lose for the first time on Sunday, but Tom Brady also lost his near-record 52-game touchdown streak just 2 shy of Drew Brees' all-time record, which just added to the Patriots' pain.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Rutgers at (8) Louisville - Cardinals by 30
San Diego State at Air Force - Falcons by 12
Arizona at USC - Wildcats by 4

NY Giants at Chicago - Bears by 19

Friday

Temple at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 17

Saturday

South Florida at Connecticut - Huskies by 2
(25) Missouri at (7) Georgia - Bulldogs by 4
Indiana at Michigan State - Hoosiers by 8
Memphis at Houston - Cougars by 16
(12) Oklahoma vs. Texas - Sooners by 13
Pittsburgh at (24) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 14
Eastern Michigan at Army - Black Knights by 17
Nebraska at Purdue - Cornhuskers by 24
Kansas at TCU - Horned Frogs by 31
Iowa State at (20) Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 37
(14) South Carolina at Arkansas - Gamecocks by 9
Navy at Duke - Blue Devils by 1
Western Carolina at Auburn - Tigers by 41
Central Michigan at Ohio - Bobcats by 40
Buffalo at Western Michigan - Bulls by 16
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts - Minutemen by 9
Kent State at Ball State - Cardinals by 29
San Jose State at Colorado State - Spartans by 1
(17) Florida at (10) LSU - Tigers by 11
Virginia at Maryland - Terrapins by 4
Syracuse at North Carolina State - Orange by 6
Boston College at (3) Clemson - Tigers by 32
(19) Northwestern at Wisconsin - Badgers by 22
Troy at Georgia State - Trojans by 28
(15) Baylor at Kansas State - Bears by 34
East Carolina at Tulane - Pirates by 8
New Mexico at Wyoming - Cowboys by 24
(2) Oregon at (16) Washington - Ducks by 8
Rice at UTSA - Roadrunners by 2
(18) Michigan at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 11
Marshall at FAU - Thundering Herd by 10
Akron at (23) Northern Illinois - Huskies by 19
(5) Stanford at Utah - Cardinal by 3
(1) Alabama at Kentucky - Crimson Tide by 12
Middle Tennessee at North Texas - Mean Green by 12
Georgia Tech at BYU - Yellowjackets by 1
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State - Bobcats by 13
Idaho at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 33
Bowling Green at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 18
UAB at FIU - Blazers by 19
Boise State at Utah State - Aggies by 12
Hawaii at UNLV - Rebels by 7
Tulsa at UTEP - Miners by 1
(9) Texas A&M at Ole Miss - Rebels by 1
Colorado at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 31
California at (11) UCLA - Bruins by 35
Oregon State at Washington State - Cougars by 15

Sunday

Cincinnati at Buffalo - Bengals by 1
Detroit at Cleveland - Browns by 3
Oakland at Kansas City - Chiefs by 12
Carolina at Minnesota - Panthers by 1
Pittsburgh at NY Jets - Jets by 8
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 5
Green Bay at Baltimore - Ravens by 1
Saint Louis at Houston - Texans by 8
Jacksonville at Denver - Broncos by 36
Tennessee at Seattle - Seahawks by 13
New Orleans at New England - Saints by 6
Arizona at San Francisco - 49ers by 7
Washington at Dallas - Cowboys by 7

Monday

Indianapolis at San Diego - Colts by 11

Most Confident vs. the Spread

(Spread in parentheses)

College

1. Ohio (-17.5)
2. Texas Tech (-16)
3. Indiana (+10)
4. Air Force (+3.5)
5. Kentucky (+27)
6. Baylor (-19.5)
7. Penn State (+3)
8. Louisville (-17)
9. Ball State (-16)
10. Washington State (-2.5)

NFL

1. Indianapolis (+2)
2. Chicago (-8)
3. Denver (-27)
4. New Orleans (+3)
5. Buffalo (+9)

Prediction Results

College Football: 42-13 (.764) 296-75 overall (.798)
Upsets: 5-4 (.556) 18-31 overall (.367)
Vs Spread: 4-6 (.400) 22-18 overall (.550)
NFL: 5-9 (.357) 45-32 overall (.584)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 6-11 overall (.353)
Vs Spread: 1-4 (.200) 13-6 overall (.684)