NFL Rankings and Weekend Predictions

Denver lost for the first time yesterday to a team that was in the top 5, which would generally make you think that they two teams would switch places, but not in this case. The Broncos maintained the top spot after the loss to the Colts, since the game was on the road and the loss came by only 6 points, but their lead has shrunk from over 2.5 points to just half a point. Here are my full rankings, including each team's predicted final record:

Rank	LW	Team	Rec	Rating	Pred	Change	Undef %
1	1	Denver	6-1	-12.4435	13-3
2	3	Seattle	6-1	-11.8882	13-3
3	4	Indianapolis	5-2	-10.3992	12-4	+1
4	8	San Francisco	5-2	-8.45453	11-5	+1
5	2	Kansas City	7-0	-8.35927	13-3		1.2
6	5	New Orleans	5-1	-7.53831	11-5	-1
7	6	Green Bay	4-2	-7.30463	12-4	+1
8	7	Carolina	3-3	-6.66156	10-6	+1
9	9	Dallas	4-3	-6.57587	10-6	+1
10	14	San Diego	4-3	-2.80993	8-8
11	10	Detroit	4-3	-1.16846	9-7	-1
12	15	Tennessee	3-4	-1.10342	8-8	-1
13	16	Cincinnati	5-2	-1.03779	10-6	+1
14	12	New England	5-2	-1.01928	10-6	-1
15	13	Baltimore	3-4	-0.52337	8-8	-1
16	11	Miami	3-3	-0.42217	9-7	-1
17	17	Arizona	3-4	0.291184	7-9	-1
18	20	Oakland	2-4	1.958274	7-9
19	18	Philadelphia	3-4	2.338097	7-9	-1
20	19	Chicago	5-2	2.494689	8-8
21	22	Atlanta	2-4	3.205182	5-11
22	24	Buffalo	3-4	3.324566	7-9	+1
23	23	Washington	2-4	3.957223	6-10	+1
24	25	Saint Louis	3-4	3.987551	6-10
25	21	Cleveland	3-4	4.401454	7-9	-1
26	30	Houston	2-5	5.770049	5-11
27	28	NY Jets	4-3	7.077847	7-9	+1
28	29	Pittsburgh	2-4	7.475291	5-11	+1
29	27	Tampa Bay	0-6	8.225162	2-14	-1
30	31	NY Giants	1-6	9.831066	3-13	+1
31	26	Minnesota	1-5	10.48461	3-13	-1
32	32	Jacksonville	0-7	14.79856	2-14

Indianapolis has beaten three of the top 4 teams in the league so far, and they are the other top 4 team, so it would seem like common sense that they would be the league's best team, but they are still ranked #3 due to their two losses, which came against Miami and San Diego, ranked #16 and #10 currently. Denver and Seattle, the teams ranked ahead of the Colts, each have one loss, both to Indy, and both on the road by 6 points, making their losses a little less embarrassing than those of the Colts, which has kept them on top for now.

Kansas City fell to #5 despite being the only undefeated team left standing, and the biggest reason is their weak schedule strength. They narrowly beat the Houston Texans on Sunday, a team that hasn't won in over a month, and their only win over a team with a winning record came against Dallas at home by a point, which is not exactly something to brag about. They Chiefs will make the playoffs and perhaps even win a game in January, but they are still not on the same level as the Broncos.

San Francisco has also jumped into the top 5 after winning their 4th game in a row, and the two losses that came before this streak are looking better and better, with Seattle and Indianapolis ranked directly ahead of the 49ers this week. Both losses were blowouts, but the Niners have won by double digits since then, putting them back into the Super Bowl picture that many were counting them out of just a month ago.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas State - Ragin Cajuns by 1

Thursday

Kentucky at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 18
Marshall at Middle Tennessee - Thundering Herd by 11

Carolina at Tampa Bay - Panthers by 12

Friday

Boise State at Brigham Young - Cougars by 13

Saturday

(20) Louisville at South Florida - Cardinals by 33
(19) Oklahoma State at Iowa State - Cowboys by 17
(24) Nebraska at Minnesota - Cornhuskers by 6
Houston at Rutgers - Cougars by 6
Ball State at Akron - Cardinals by 12
Connecticut at (23) UCF - Knights by 42
Northwestern at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 10
Wake Forest at (7) Miami - Hurricanes by 33
Vanderbilt at (16) Texas A&M - Aggies by 13
Georgia Tech at Virginia - Yellowjackets by 20
Pittsburgh at Navy - Midshipmen by 3
Miami (OH) at Ohio - Bobcats by 35
Toledo at Bowling Green - Falcons by 7
Western Michigan at Massachusetts - Minutemen by 11
Temple at SMU - Mustangs by 7
North Carolina State at (2) Florida State - Seminoles by 52
(9) Clemson at Maryland - Tigers by 15
Boston College at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9
(10) Texas Tech at (15) Oklahoma - Red Raiders by 1
UTEP at Rice - Owls by 26
Duke at (14) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 11
Tennessee at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 24
Michigan State at Illinois - Fighting Illini by 3
Buffalo at Kent State - Bulls by 5
Eastern Michigan at (18) Northern Illinois - Huskies by 29
Tulsa at Tulane - Green Wave by 16
West Virginia at Kansas State - Wildcats by 16
Utah at USC - Utes by 2
Troy at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 11
Notre Dame at Air Force - Fighting Irish by 17
UAB at UTSA - Roadrunners by 9
Louisiana Tech at FIU - Bulldogs by 9
UNLV at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 11
Wyoming at San Jose State - Spartans by 9
Furman at (13) LSU - Tigers by 49
(21) South Carolina at (5) Missouri - Tigers by 15
South Alabama at Texas State - Jaguars by 4
(8) Baylor at Kansas - Bears by 46
Georgia State at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 22
(12) UCLA at (3) Oregon - Ducks by 26
North Texas at Southern Miss - Mean Green by 29
FAU at (11) Auburn - Tigers by 24
Idaho at Ole Miss - Rebels by 44
Texas at TCU - Horned Frogs by 5
Arizona at Colorado - Wildcats by 16
Abilene Christian at New Mexico State - Wildcats by 13
Penn State at (4) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 19
(17) Fresno State at San Diego State - Bulldogs by 14
(6) Stanford at (25) Oregon State - Cardinal by 8
California at Washington - Huskies by 39

Sunday

Colorado State at Hawaii - Rams by 3

Dallas at Detroit - Cowboys by 3
Cleveland at Kansas City - Chiefs by 15
Miami at New England - Patriots by 3
Buffalo at New Orleans - Saints by 15
NY Giants at Philadelphia - Eagles by 10
San Francisco vs. Jacksonville - 49ers by 23
NY Jets at Cincinnati - Bengals by 11
Pittsburgh at Oakland - Raiders by 12
Atlanta at Arizona - Cardinals by 5
Washington at Denver - Broncos by 19
Green Bay at Minnesota - Packers by 15

Monday

Seattle at Saint Louis - Seahawks by 13

Most Confident vs. the Spread

(Spread in Parentheses)

College Football

1. Tulane (+3.5)
2. Missouri (-3)
3. Massachusetts (-3)
4. Houston (+7)
5. North Texas (-10.5)
6. Navy (+6)
7. Illinois (-11.5)
8. Utah (+7)
9. Texas Tech (+7)
10. Georgia Tech (-10)

NFL

1. Oakland (+3)
2. Dallas (+3)
3. Carolina (-6)
4. Kansas City (-9)
5. San Francisco (-17)

Prediction Results

College Football: 37-12 (.755) 366-102 overall (.782)
Upsets: 5-3 (.625) 27-40 overall (.403)
Vs. Spread: 7-3 (.700) 30-30 overall (.500)
NFL: 8-7 (.533) 61-46 overall (.570)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 8-19 overall (.296)
Vs. Spread: 3-2 (.600) 17-11 overall (.607)