NFL Rankings and Weekend Predictions

For the second week in a row, the teams ranked #2 and #3 in my rankings went down, giving Denver a bit of a buffer zone between themselves and the rest of the league. The Broncos are still the obvious #1, despite a mediocre performance against the league-worst Jaguars, but they could afford to take the week off this once. Here are my full rankings, along with each team's predicted final record:

Rank	LW	Team	Rec	Rating	Pred	Change	Undef %
1	1	Denver	6-0	-13.4922	13-3	-1	4.1
2	5	Kansas City	6-0	-10.9371	13-3	+1	2.7
3	4	Seattle	5-1	-10.315	13-3
4	3	Indianapolis	4-2	-9.03022	11-5	-1
5	2	New Orleans	5-1	-8.3913	12-4	-1
6	6	Green Bay	3-2	-6.29784	11-5	+1
7	11	Carolina	2-3	-6.07723	9-7	+2
8	8	San Francisco	4-2	-5.62349	10-6
9	14	Dallas	3-3	-5.2952	9-7	+1
10	13	Detroit	4-2	-2.80649	10-6
11	7	Miami	3-2	-2.60955	10-6	-1
12	10	New England	5-1	-2.14438	11-5	+1
13	9	Baltimore	3-3	-1.83697	9-7	-1
14	21	San Diego	3-3	-1.69122	8-8	+2
15	17	Tennessee	3-3	-1.58206	9-7
16	15	Cincinnati	4-2	-0.11445	9-7
17	18	Arizona	3-3	0.103026	8-8
18	26	Philadelphia	3-3	0.885401	8-8	+1
19	16	Chicago	4-2	1.69886	8-8	-1
20	22	Oakland	2-4	1.752048	7-9
21	12	Cleveland	3-3	2.755366	8-8	-1
22	19	Atlanta	1-4	2.919836	5-11
23	28	Washington	1-4	4.355533	5-11	-1
24	20	Buffalo	2-4	4.505555	6-10	-1
25	29	Saint Louis	3-3	4.754362	6-10	+2
26	23	Minnesota	1-4	7.473556	4-12	-2
27	24	Tampa Bay	0-5	7.688666	3-13	-2
28	25	NY Jets	3-3	8.530699	6-10	-1
29	30	Pittsburgh	1-4	8.800662	4-12	+2
30	27	Houston	2-4	9.118033	5-11	-1
31	31	NY Giants	0-6	11.31007	2-14
32	32	Jacksonville	0-6	14.30202	2-14	+1

Kansas City joins fellow AFC West team Denver as the only undefeated teams in the NFL through 6 weeks, but the Chiefs have had a little easier path to get there, which is why they are ranked behind the Broncos still. They have beaten the bottom 2 teams already, and face the third-worst this week, but that will change in the second half of the season, when they play Denver and San Diego twice each and Indianapolis once as well.

Dallas has climbed into the top 10 with a .500 record, and they have done it by being consistent, beating up on bad teams and losing close games to good teams. Two of their losses came to the undefeated teams, so you can't really fault them there, but they should have beaten the Chargers, in which case we'd be making the case for the Cowboys to be #3 right now.

Detroit also reached the top 10 this week, by winning a road game against a division leader, even though the leader was Cleveland, who hasn't made the playoffs in years. The Lions losses at Arizona and Green Bay are looking a little better, as each of those teams has shown improvement in recent weeks, and the Lions are still perfect at home this year, where they play their next two before the bye.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Louisiana-Lafayette at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 8

Thursday

(10) Miami at North Carolina - Hurricanes by 17

Seattle at Arizona - Seahawks by 8

Friday

UCF at (8) Louisville - Cardinals by 14

Saturday

Minnesota at Northwestern - Wildcats by 15
Purdue at Michigan State - Spartans by 32
Southern Miss at East Carolina - Pirates by 42
TCU at (21) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 14
SMU at Memphis - Tigers by 23
(15) Georgia at Vanderbilt - Bulldogs by 12
(16) Texas Tech at West Virginia - Red Raiders by 15
Connecticut at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 26
(11) South Carolina at Tennessee - Volunteers by 1
Navy at Toledo - Rockets by 3
(22) Florida at (14) Missouri - Tigers by 13
Syracuse at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 18
Akron at Miami (OH) - Zips by 9
Army at Temple - Black Knights by 2
Ohio at Eastern Michigan - Bobcats by 21
Charleston Southern at Colorado - Buffaloes by 17
Ball State at Western Michigan - Cardinals by 29
Colorado State at Wyoming - Cowboys by 17
Kent State at South Alabama - Jaguars by 16
(23) Northern Illinois at Central Michigan - Huskies by 12
(9) UCLA at (13) Stanford - Cardinal by 8
Indiana at Michigan - Wolverines by 1
Maryland at Wake Forest - Terrapins by 1
Iowa at (4) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 26
(24) Auburn at (7) Texas A&M - Aggies by 1
BYU at Houston - BYU Cougars by 3
Duke at Virginia - Blue Devils by 1
Massachusetts at Buffalo - Bulls by 23
(18) Oklahoma at Kansas - Sooners by 14
North Texas at Louisiana Tech - Mean Green by 19
(20) Washington at Arizona State - Huskies by 3
(6) LSU at Ole Miss - Tigers by 10
Old Dominion at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 35
Iowa State at (12) Baylor - Bears by 46
Georgia State at Texas State - Bobcats by 28
Arkansas at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 37
USC at Notre Dame - Trojans by 6
Rice at New Mexico State - Owls by 33
(5) Florida State at (3) Clemson - Seminoles by 9
(25) Wisconsin at Illinois - Badgers by 15
Nevada at Boise State - Broncos by 28
Utah State at New Mexico - Aggies by 24
Utah at Arizona - Wildcats by 1
UNLV at (17) Fresno State - Bulldogs by 23
Washington State at (2) Oregon - Ducks by 42
Oregon State at California - Beavers by 11

Sunday

Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Falcons by 9
Cincinnati at Detroit - Lions by 5
Buffalo at Miami - Dolphins by 12
New England at NY Jets - Patriots by 8
Dallas at Philadelphia - Cowboys by 4
Chicago at Washington - Bears by 1
Saint Louis at Carolina - Panthers by 13
San Diego at Jacksonville - Chargers by 13
San Francisco at Tennessee - 49ers by 2
Cleveland at Green Bay - Packers by 12
Houston at Kansas City - Chiefs by 23
Baltimore at Pittsburgh - Ravens by 8
Denver at Indianapolis - Broncos by 2

Monday

Minnesota at NY Giants - Vikings by 1

Most Confident vs. the Spread

(Spread is in parentheses)

College Football

1. East Carolina (-22.5)
2. Memphis (-4)
3. Missouri (+3.5)
4. Rice (-17.5)
5. Auburn (+13.5)
6. North Texas (-6.5)
7. Cincinnati (-14)
8. Texas State (-17)
9. Georgia Tech (-7.5)
10. Wyoming (-7)

NFL

1. Kansas City (-8)
2. Baltimore (+1)
3. Dallas (+3)
4. Carolina (-7)
5. Indianapolis (+7)

Prediction Results

College Football: 33-15 (.688) 329-90 overall (.785)
Upsets: 4-6 (.400) 22-37 overall (.373)
Vs Spread: 1-9 (.100) 23-27 overall (.460)
NFL: 8-7 (.533) 53-39 overall (.576)
Upsets: 1-5 (.167) 7-16 overall (.304)
Vs. Spread: 1-3 (.250) 14-9 overall (.609)