Saturday, October 26, 2013

NBA Preview 2013

The NBA season starts up on Tuesday, so it's time to prognosticate. Which teams have improved during the offseason, and which are tanking in hopes of landing the top pick in next year's highly-anticipated draft? Will the Miami Heat 3-peat? I have analyzed every player move since the end of last season and calculated how each team will be affected, then calculated each team's odds of winning each game this season (1230 total games) to determine each team's predicted finish and playoff seeding, as well as this season's champion. Here are my full preseason rankings:

Rank
LW
Team
Record
Rating
Pred
Change
Playoff
1
3
Miami
66-16
-8.02052
62-20
-4
1E
2
11
Brooklyn
49-33
-7.5749
62-20
+13
2E
3
5
Memphis
56-26
-7.42301
61-21
+5
1W
4
4
LA Clippers
56-26
-6.65294
59-23
+3
2W
5
2
San Antonio
58-24
-5.34647
56-26
-2
3W
6
1
Oklahoma City
60-22
-4.99842
55-27
-5
4W
7
9
Indiana
49-32
-4.97429
56-26
+7
3E
8
7
New York
54-28
-3.67702
53-29
-1
4E
9
6
Denver
57-25
-3.36568
51-31
-6
5W
10
8
Houston
45-37
-2.22605
47-35
+2
7W
11
10
Golden State
47-35
-2.03503
48-34
+1
6W
12
23
Portland
33-49
-0.58555
44-38
+11
8W
13
15
Atlanta
44-38
0.304629
42-40
-2
5E
14
19
Toronto
34-48
0.81226
41-41
+7
6E
15
20
Washington
29-53
1.001166
40-42
+11
7E
16
24
Sacramento
28-54
1.358489
38-44
+10

17
16
Chicago
45-37
1.37757
40-42
-5
8E
18
14
Dallas
41-41
1.578741
37-45
-4

19
25
New Orleans
27-55
2.256902
36-46
+9

20
12
LA Lakers
45-37
2.410893
35-47
-10

21
27
Cleveland
24-58
2.512724
36-46
+12

22
18
Minnesota
31-51
3.594733
32-50
+1

23
21
Milwaukee
38-44
3.80864
33-49
-5

24
17
Boston
41-40
4.597823
30-52
-11

25
26
Detroit
29-53
4.643823
30-52
+1

26
30
Charlotte
21-61
5.326927
28-54
+7

27
22
Philadelphia
34-48
7.778159
23-59
-11

28
29
Orlando
20-62
8.901612
20-62


29
13
Utah
43-39
9.110256
19-63
-24

30
28
Phoenix
25-57
10.33422
17-65
-8


Miami's mantra this offseason? Don't mess with success. The only player missing from last season's title team is Mike Miller, and the only real addition of note is Michael Beasley, who was a disappointment in Phoenix last year. What does that mean for LeBron and his troops? Another 60-win season in a tougher Eastern Conference, and a good chance a 3rd straight title.

Look for Brooklyn to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year, and to challenge for home court advantage throughout the playoffs. The trade they made with Boston was pretty one-sided, even if the three players they received are all well into their 30's. Garnett is still better than Kris Humphries, and Paul Pierce is much better than Gerald Wallace, and Jason Terry was tossed in for good measure. Lopez, Garnett, Pierce, Joe Johnson, and Deron Williams may be the best starting five this league has seen in a long time, and it won't hurt to have Kirilenko coming off the bench.

Memphis is coming off the best season in franchise history, winning 10 more games than they ever had before and making their first ever conference final, and they decided to stick with what they have. They picked up Mike Miller as a free agent but did little else to change last year's best defensive team, and look for them to take another big step forward this season as the best team in the West.

Last year Oklahoma City downgraded their sixth man position from James Harden to Kevin Martin, then downgraded even farther this year by trading Martin to the T-Wolves for basically nothing. With Russell Westbrook still recovering from a knee injury, Kevin Durant will have to carry this team in the early going, and I just don't think they have the depth to fulfill the promise they showed in recent years.

Utah will take the biggest dive of any team this year after losing three starters to free agency and trading away another, leaving them with a roster that started a total of 108 games last year, or basically just one starter, Marvin Williams, the biggest bust of the 2005 draft. Utah is obviously positioning themselves for the Andrew Wiggins-Jabari Parker sweepstakes, and until yesterday I thought they had the best chance at winning it, but then...

The Phoenix Suns traded away the final piece of last season's starting frontcourt, along with their top bench player, to bring in Emeka Okafor, who may not play this season while recovering from a neck injury. They cut Michael Beasley and traded Luis Scola for bits and pieces, but have racked up 4 first-round picks in next season's draft. If this isn't the most obvious tank job since San Antonio in 1997, I don't know what is.

Playoff Predictions

First Round

Heat over Bulls
Nets over Wizards
Pacers over Raptors
Knicks over Hawks

Grizzlies over Blazers
Clippers over Rockets
Spurs over Warriors
Thunder over Nuggets

Second Round

Heat over Knicks
Nets over Pacers

Grizzlies over Thunder
Spurs over Clippers

Conference Finals

Heat over Nets
Spurs over Grizzlies

Finals

Heat over Spurs

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