College Football Rankings - 20 Oct

The race for the top spot in this week's rankings was closer than it has been since September, with Baylor and Florida State piling up points in huge blowouts while Oregon's defense let down their guard a little, allowing those teams to close the gap that the Ducks created over the last 2 weeks. Oregon still remains in the top spot, but must perform well against UCLA this weekend in order to maintain the top spot from a very strong Seminole team. Here are my full rankings, along with each team's predicted final record:

Rank	LW	Team	Rec	Rating	Pred	Change	Undef %
1	1	Oregon	7-0	-41.3082	13-0		66.0
2	2	Florida State	6-0	-41.0312	13-0	+1	82.5
3	3	Baylor	6-0	-39.444	12-0		95.8
4	7	Alabama	7-0	-30.901	12-1	+1	27.5
5	4	Missouri	7-0	-27.7751	12-1		24.5
6	9	Stanford	6-1	-25.7304	10-2	+1
7	6	Miami (FL)	6-0	-25.6989	11-2		0.1
8	18	Arizona State	5-2	-25.6863	9-4	+2
9	19	Georgia Tech	4-3	-25.4114	8-4	+1
10	11	Wisconsin	5-2	-24.293	10-2	+1
11	8	LSU	6-2	-24.0515	9-3	-1
12	5	Washington	4-3	-23.2883	8-4	-1
13	16	Brigham Young	5-2	-21.2085	9-3
14	14	UCLA	5-1	-20.5573	8-4	-1
15	12	Ohio State	7-0	-20.4984	12-1		42.9
16	13	Louisville	6-1	-20.2734	11-1	-1
17	17	Utah	4-3	-20.1017	7-5
18	21	Auburn	6-1	-19.5347	10-2	+1
19	10	Clemson	6-1	-18.8174	10-2
20	23	Utah State	4-4	-18.6704	8-4
21	22	South Carolina	5-2	-18.2342	8-4	-1
22	15	Georgia	4-3	-18.1268	7-5	-1
23	24	Arizona	4-2	-17.8959	8-4	+1
24	20	Florida	4-3	-17.7032	7-5
25	25	Virginia Tech	6-1	-17.0351	9-3
26	26	Oklahoma State	5-1	-15.4694	9-3
27	31	UCF	5-1	-15.2503	11-1	+1
28	30	Texas A&M	5-2	-14.8042	8-4
29	36	Ole Miss	4-3	-13.9626	8-4	+1
30	28	Texas Tech	7-0	-13.8541	9-3
31	32	Houston	5-1	-13.3231	9-3	-1
32	33	USC	4-3	-12.9809	7-6	-1
33	27	Boise State	5-2	-12.7336	10-3
34	34	Marshall	4-2	-12.4851	10-3
35	29	Tennessee	4-3	-12.3969	6-6
36	42	Oregon State	6-1	-12.276	7-5
37	35	Mississippi State	3-3	-11.7036	6-6
38	38	Duke	5-2	-11.2782	8-4	+1
39	41	East Carolina	5-2	-8.92375	9-3
40	44	Washington State	4-4	-8.78869	5-7
41	51	Michigan	6-1	-8.49566	9-3	+2
42	40	Nebraska	5-1	-8.42058	9-4
43	47	Oklahoma	6-1	-8.31977	8-4
44	54	North Carolina	1-5	-8.19751	5-7
45	37	Indiana	3-4	-8.14928	6-6
46	52	Kansas State	2-4	-6.92089	6-6
47	58	Vanderbilt	4-3	-6.84309	6-6	+1
48	43	Penn State	4-2	-6.84281	7-5
49	66	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-2	-6.71233	9-3	+1
50	50	TCU	3-4	-6.52187	6-6
51	53	Texas	4-2	-6.23892	7-5
52	39	Pittsburgh	4-2	-5.9581	6-6	-1
53	46	Ball State	7-1	-5.26709	10-2	-1
54	55	Fresno State	6-0	-5.07565	10-2		8.1
55	48	North Texas	4-3	-4.8255	9-4
56	72	Notre Dame	5-2	-4.75996	7-5	+1
57	69	Iowa	4-3	-4.42979	7-5	+1
58	61	Bowling Green	5-2	-4.31319	9-4
59	56	Navy	3-3	-4.16167	7-5	-1
60	65	Ohio	5-2	-4.01944	9-3
61	59	Boston College	3-3	-3.98671	6-6
62	57	Michigan State	6-1	-3.0838	8-4	-1
63	49	Western Kentucky	4-3	-2.78018	8-4	-1
64	68	Rutgers	4-2	-2.40613	8-4
65	67	Toledo	4-3	-2.1743	7-5
66	64	Illinois	3-3	-1.29313	6-6
67	45	Syracuse	3-4	-1.0942	5-7	-1
68	71	Arkansas State	3-3	-1.06139	7-5
69	62	Virginia	2-5	-0.83643	3-9
70	60	Memphis	1-5	-0.73593	5-7	-2
71	80	Northern Illinois	7-0	-0.40757	11-2	+1	5.7
72	74	Florida Atlantic	2-5	-0.2654	6-6
73	63	Northwestern	4-3	0.086726	6-6	-1
74	78	Cincinnati	5-2	0.54556	7-5
75	75	South Alabama	3-3	0.744157	7-5
76	76	Kentucky	1-5	0.872315	3-9
77	83	San Jose State	3-3	1.424999	7-5	+1
78	79	Rice	5-2	1.512293	9-3	+1
79	70	Maryland	5-2	1.537085	7-5
80	81	Buffalo	5-2	1.69223	8-4
81	77	Tulane	5-2	2.259557	8-4
82	85	Wake Forest	4-3	2.455638	5-7	+1
83	94	Colorado	3-3	2.624982	4-8
84	90	Minnesota	5-2	2.633713	6-6	+1
85	98	Colorado State	3-4	2.820801	6-7	+2
86	82	Middle Tennessee	3-4	3.068457	7-5
87	84	Troy	4-3	3.526936	6-6
88	89	West Virginia	3-4	4.006418	5-7
89	73	Wyoming	4-3	5.609289	5-7	-2
90	88	Arkansas	3-5	6.243602	3-9
91	86	Iowa State	1-5	6.382692	3-9
92	96	Nevada	3-4	6.414012	5-7
93	87	North Carolina State	3-3	6.433896	4-8
94	95	UTSA	2-5	7.702819	5-7
95	106	Southern Methodist	2-4	9.383696	4-8	+1
96	97	Louisiana-Monroe	3-4	9.559909	5-7
97	93	Army	3-5	9.832788	4-8	-1
98	92	Texas State	4-3	10.11546	6-6
99	103	Hawaii	0-6	10.8703	2-10
100	91	California	1-6	10.89776	1-11	-1
101	107	Temple	1-6	11.16809	2-10
102	99	Kent State	2-6	11.23015	4-8
103	104	Akron	2-6	11.44066	4-8	+1
104	101	UAB	2-4	11.84812	4-8
105	102	Kansas	2-4	12.02694	3-9
106	105	UNLV	4-3	12.66976	6-6
107	109	Tulsa	2-4	13.64058	3-9
108	100	New Mexico	2-5	13.81033	3-9	-1
109	108	San Diego State	3-3	13.93306	4-8
110	110	Air Force	1-6	16.7842	2-10	-1
111	112	Louisiana Tech	2-5	17.72497	4-8
112	111	South Florida	2-4	17.76033	3-9
113	117	Purdue	1-6	19.02972	1-11
114	113	Central Michigan	3-5	19.71626	5-7
115	114	Massachusetts	1-6	20.7193	3-9
116	115	Connecticut	0-6	21.44328	0-12
117	118	UTEP	1-5	22.71557	2-10
118	116	Eastern Michigan	1-6	23.66036	2-10
119	119	Idaho	1-6	25.52491	2-10
120	120	Miami (OH)	0-7	26.08158	0-12
121	121	Western Michigan	0-8	26.33654	1-11
122	123	Georgia State	0-7	26.50466	0-12
123	122	Southern Miss	0-6	29.07073	0-12
124	124	Florida International	1-5	32.09288	1-11
125	125	New Mexico State	0-7	37.55144	0-12

Arizona State reached the top 10 this week, making them the highest-ranked 2-loss team, but one of those losses came at Stanford, who is ranked ahead of them, and the other came against an improving Notre Dame team by a field goal. Wins over Wisconsin and USC balance out those losses, but both came at home, where the Sun Devils have been perfect so far. They have been winless elsewhere, a trend they are hoping will change at Washington State this weekend.

Georgia Tech is a surprise inclusion in this week's top 10, especially after three straight losses hurt their standing, but all 3 losses came against teams in my top 25, the last 2 on the road. What they Yellowjackets have done is blow out the best Duke team in memory on the road before wiping out Syracuse yesterday 56-0 in a game that was predicted to be close. If they can upset Clemson on the road next month, they will prove that they deserve such a high ranking.

Wisconsin has been perfect so far against teams that are not currently ranked, but have lost twice to teams that are in the higher reaches of my rankings, and both of those losses came down to the final possession of the game. The Badgers probably won't play in the Big 10 title game due to their loss at Ohio State, which would break a 3-season streak of playing in the Rose Bowl, but I still see them as the top team in the Big Ten.