NBA Playoff Odds - 2022

The NBA Playoffs start for real today, with all 16 remaining teams playing this weekend for a chance to take home the trophy. Based on my data from every game of the regular season, I've calculated the odds of each team beating any other team in any length of series, and the odds of the matchup taking place, to determine each team's odds of winning in each round and advancing to win the NBA Finals, and also made my picks for how the playoffs will turn out:

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Suns - 94.1%

(2) Celtics - 86.2%

(3) Bucks - 77.8%

(3) Warriors - 75.4%

(2) Grizzlies - 70.9%

(1) Heat - 68.9%

(5) Jazz - 64.1%

(4) 76ers - 55.5%

(5) Raptors - 44.5%

(4) Mavericks - 35.9%

(8) Hawks - 31.1%

(7) Timberwolves - 29.1%

(6) Nuggets - 24.6%

(6) Bulls - 22.2%

(7) Nets - 13.8%

(8) Pelicans - 5.9%

Odds of Making Conference Finals

(2) Celtics - 65.0%

(1) Suns - 64.7%

(1) Heat - 43.2%

(3) Warriors - 42.9%

(2) Grizzlies - 39.3%

(3) Bucks - 27.0%

(4) 76ers - 25.3%

(5) Jazz - 25.2%

(5) Raptors - 18.6%

(8) Hawks - 12.9%

(7) Timberwolves - 9.6%

(4) Mavericks - 9.3%

(6) Nuggets - 8.1%

(7) Nets - 4.8%

(6) Bulls - 3.2%

(8) Pelicans - 0.8%

Odds of Making NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 46.2%

(1) Suns - 44.6%

(1) Heat - 19.7%

(3) Warriors - 18.3%

(2) Grizzlies - 15.9%

(3) Bucks - 14.1%

(5) Jazz - 13.8%

(4) 76ers - 8.6%

(5) Raptors - 5.7%

(4) Mavericks - 3.6%

(8) Hawks - 3.5%

(7) Timberwolves - 2.1%

(6) Nuggets - 1.6%

(7) Nets - 1.5%

(6) Bulls - 0.8%

(8) Pelicans - 0.1%

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(1) Suns - 30.0%

(2) Celtics - 24.3%

(3) Warriors - 9.9%

(2) Grizzlies - 8.4%

(1) Heat - 7.6%

(5) Jazz - 7.3%

(3) Bucks - 4.7%

(4) 76ers - 2.5%

(5) Raptors - 1.5%

(4) Mavericks - 1.4%

(8) Hawks - 0.8%

(7) Timberwolves - 0.7%

(6) Nuggets - 0.5%

(7) Nets - 0.3%

(6) Bulls - 0.1%

(8) Pelicans - 0.02%

My Picks

First Round

(1) Heat over (8) Hawks in 5

(2) Celtics over (7) Nets in 5

(3) Bucks over (6) Bulls in 4

(5) Raptors over (4) 76ers in 6

(1) Suns over (8) Pelicans in 5

(2) Grizzlies over (7) Timberwolves in 6

(3) Warriors over (6) Nuggets in 7

(5) Jazz over (4) Mavericks in 5

Second Round

(1) Heat over (5) Raptors in 6

(2) Celtics over (3) Bucks in 6

(1) Suns over (5) Jazz in 5

(3) Warriors over (2) Grizzlies in 6

Conference Finals

(2) Celtics over (1) Heat in 5

(1) Suns over (3) Warriors in 6

NBA Finals

(1) Suns over (2) Celtics in 7