Each playoff series had its first game this weekend, and even though it's only one game, it made a huge difference for some teams as far as their odds of advancing go. Being up 1-0 means that you only have to win half of the games for the rest of the series to advance, while the team who is down now needs to win 2/3 of their games. Here are each team's current odds, with change from pre-playoff odds in parentheses:
Odds of Winning First Round
(1) Suns - 96.7% (+2.6)
(2) Celtics - 91.2% (+5.0)
(3) Bucks - 86.1% (+8.3)
(3) Warriors - 85.4% (+10.0)
(1) Heat - 81.7% (+12.8)
(5) Jazz - 79.0% (+14.9)
(4) 76ers - 71.6% (+16.1)
(7) Timberwolves - 50.4% (+21.3)
(2) Grizzlies - 49.6% (-21.3)
(5) Raptors - 28.4 (-16.1)
(4) Mavericks - 21.0% (-14.9)
(8) Hawks - 18.3% (-12.8)
(6) Nuggets - 14.6% (-10.0)
(6) Bulls - 13.9% (-8.3)
(7) Nets - 8.8% (-5.0)
(8) Pelicans - 3.3% (-2.6)
Minnesota's upset of the Grizzlies had the biggest impact, making the series a virtual toss-up, while the rest of the series openers, all won by favorites, impacted the odds more in series that were projected to be close.
Odds of Making Conference Finals
(2) Celtics - 66.9% (+1.9)
(1) Suns - 64.4% (-0.3)
(3) Warriors - 53.6% (+10.7)
(1) Heat - 51.4% (+8.2)
(4) 76ers - 31.1% (+5.8)
(5) Jazz - 30.2% (+5.0)
(3) Bucks - 28.5% (+1.5)
(2) Grizzlies - 25.2% (-14.1)
(7) Timberwolves - 15.8% (+6.2)
(5) Raptors - 10.4% (-8.2)
(8) Hawks - 7.1% (-5.8)
(6) Nuggets - 5.4% (-2.7)
(4) Mavericks - 5.0% (-4.3)
(7) Nets - 2.9% (-1.9)
(6) Bulls - 1.8% (-1.4)
(8) Pelicans - 0.4% (-0.4)
The Warriors had the best weekend here, partially because of their strong win, but also because Memphis' loss gives them a better chance at home court in the next round.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
(2) Celtics - 45.5% (-0.7)
(1) Suns - 44.5% (-0.1)
(1) Heat - 23.8% (+4.1)
(3) Warriors - 22.8% (+4.5)
(5) Jazz - 16.7% (+2.9)
(3) Bucks - 14.1% (+0.0)
(4) 76ers - 10.7% (+2.1)
(2) Grizzlies - 9.6% (-6.3)
(7) Timberwolves - 3.5% (+1.4)
(5) Raptors - 3.0% (-2.7)
(4) Mavericks - 1.9% (-1.7)
(8) Hawks - 1.7% (-1.8)
(6) Nuggets - 1.0% (-0.6)
(7) Nets - 0.8% (-0.7)
(6) Bulls - 0.4% (-0.4)
(8) Pelicans - 0.1% (+0.0)
The Heat looked strong in their opener, which helped them move a bit closer to the leaders in odds of making the Finals, just like the Warriors in the West.
Odds of Winning Championship
(1) Suns - 29.7% (-0.3)
(2) Celtics - 23.5% (-0.8)
(3) Warriors - 12.4% (+2.5)
(1) Heat - 9.5% (+1.9)
(5) Jazz - 8.8% (+1.5)
(2) Grizzlies - 4.8% (-3.6)
(3) Bucks - 4.6% (-0.1)
(4) 76ers - 3.3% (+0.8)
(7) Timberwolves - 1.1% (+0.4)
(4) Mavericks - 0.74% (-0.7)
(5) Raptors - 0.72% (-0.8)
(8) Hawks - 0.4% (-0.4)
(6) Nuggets - 0.3% (-0.2)
(7) Nets - 0.1% (-0.2)
(6) Bulls - 0.05% (-0.05)
(8) Pelicans - 0.008% (-0.012)
Utah made a big move here by winning on the road in Game 1, stealing away home court advantage, but they were already better than their seed and finally played like it.
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