Every playoff series has now seen at least 3 games played, meaning that all 16 teams have had a chance to play on their home floor, and there are still 2 series that could end in sweeps, with Boston and Golden State each holding 3-0 leads. There are also 2 series in the West that are tied at 2, and 5 of the series are guaranteed to have at least 2 more games, so there is a lot of basketball left in this round. Here are the updated odds of each team advancing through the playoffs and winning it all, with change from Thursday in parentheses:
Odds of Winning First Round
(2) Celtics - 99.0% (+3.4)
(3) Warriors - 98.4% (+5.2)
(1) Suns - 94.6% (+6.6)
(4) 76ers - 91.6% (-4.3)
(3) Bucks - 86.6% (+16.3)
(1) Heat - 82.1% (-8.5)
(2) Grizzlies - 67.3% (+2.2)
(5) Jazz - 56.3% (-9.2)
(4) Mavericks - 43.7% (+9.2)
(7) Timberwolves - 32.7% (-2.2)
(8) Hawks - 17.9% (+8.5)
(6) Bulls - 13.4% (-16.3)
(5) Raptors - 8.4% (+4.3)
(8) Pelicans - 5.4% (-6.6)
(6) Nuggets - 1.6% (-5.2)
(7) Nets - 1.0% (-3.4)
Milwaukee's road blowout of Chicago was huge for them, giving them back home court advantage and deflating the Bulls' confidence in the process. Dallas split with Utah on the road, but still saw a big leap in their odds with 2 of 3 possible games remaining at home.
Odds of Making Conference Finals
(2) Celtics - 71.8% (-1.6)
(1) Suns - 64.8% (+5.7)
(3) Warriors - 58.9% (+2.7)
(1) Heat - 50.4% (-4.5)
(4) 76ers - 40.1% (-0.3)
(2) Grizzlies - 32.5% (+0.3)
(3) Bucks - 26.6% (+5.2)
(5) Jazz - 22.2% (-6.5)
(4) Mavericks - 12.1% (+1.7)
(7) Timberwolves - 8.1% (-1.3)
(8) Hawks - 6.5% (+3.2)
(5) Raptors - 3.0% (+1.6)
(6) Bulls - 1.3% (-2.2)
(8) Pelicans - 0.9% (-0.9)
(6) Nuggets - 0.5% (-1.7)
(7) Nets - 0.3% (-1.3)
Phoenix saw the biggest jump here after they took back home court and saw the Jazz and Mavericks guarantee themselves a long series, giving the Suns more time to rest and get healthy assuming they win quickly. The Bucks made the biggest jump in the East, though they still have just the 4th-best odds in the conference.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
(2) Celtics - 48.6% (+0.1)
(1) Suns - 41.2% (+2.9)
(3) Warriors - 27.5% (+1.0)
(1) Heat - 22.5% (-2.7)
(2) Grizzlies - 13.9% (+0.1)
(3) Bucks - 13.21% (+3.3)
(4) 76ers - 13.19% (-0.8)
(5) Jazz - 10.9% (-3.8)
(4) Mavericks - 4.4% (+0.6)
(7) Timberwolves - 1.9% (-0.3)
(8) Hawks - 1.5% (+0.7)
(5) Raptors - 0.8% (+0.4)
(6) Bulls - 0.3% (-0.4)
(8) Pelicans - 0.11% (-0.1)
(6) Nuggets - 0.10% (-0.3)
(7) Nets - 0.09% (-0.35)
Milwaukee was the big gainer here, overtaking Philly in the East, while Utah took the biggest hit, though yesterday's win kept it from being worse.
Odds of Winning NBA Finals
(1) Suns - 26.3% (+1.7)
(2) Celtics - 25.4% (-0.1)
(3) Warriors - 15.1% (+0.7)
(1) Heat - 9.2% (-1.3)
(2) Grizzlies - 7.2% (+0.1)
(5) Jazz - 5.4% (-2.0)
(3) Bucks - 4.5% (+1.2)
(4) 76ers - 4.1% (-0.5)
(4) Mavericks - 1.7% (+0.3)
(7) Timberwolves - 0.5% (-0.1)
(8) Hawks - 0.3% (+0.1)
(5) Raptors - 0.2% (+0.1)
(6) Bulls - 0.03% (-0.06)
(6) Nuggets - 0.02% (-0.09)
(7) Nets - 0.0147% (-0.06)
(8) Pelicans - 0.0146% (-0.015)
Phoenix retook the top spot as the favorite to win the title after winning Game 3, while Boston remains the favorite in the East, with Milwaukee the only real contender in the East that saw its odds go up.
No comments:
Post a Comment