Each series has now gone at least 2 games, with the 76ers/Raptors series already 3 deep, and half of the series are tied at 1-1, which means that home court advantage has switched to the lower seed in a best of 5 series. Here are each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs, with their change since Monday in parentheses:
Odds of Winning First Round
(4) 76ers - 95.9% (+24.3)
(2) Celtics - 95.6% (+4.4)
(3) Warriors - 93.2% (+7.8)
(1) Heat - 90.6% (+8.9)
(1) Suns - 88.0% (-8.7)
(3) Bucks - 70.3% (-15.8)
(5) Jazz - 65.5% (-13.5)
(2) Grizzlies - 65.1% (+15.5)
(7) Timberwolves - 34.9% (-15.5)
(4) Mavericks - 34.5% (+13.5)
(6) Bulls - 29.7% (+15.8)
(8) Pelicans - 12.0% (+8.7)
(8) Hawks - 9.4% (-8.9)
(6) Nuggets - 6.8% (-7.8)
(7) Nets - 4.4% (-4.4)
(5) Raptors - 4.1% (-24.3)
Philly's extra game made their odds shoot up faster than the rest, Chicago's upset road win was the biggest single win, though Memphis' bounceback wasn't far behind. Higher seeds are still favored to win in every series but one.
Odds of Making Conference Finals
(2) Celtics - 73.4% (+6.5)
(1) Suns - 59.1% (-5.3)
(3) Warriors - 56.2% (+2.6)
(1) Heat - 54.9% (+3.5)
(4) 76ers - 40.4% (+9.3)
(2) Grizzlies - 32.2% (+7.0)
(5) Jazz - 28.7% (-1.5)
(3) Bucks - 21.4% (-7.1)
(4) Mavericks - 10.4% (+5.4)
(7) Timberwolves - 9.4% (-6.4)
(6) Bulls - 3.5% (+1.7)
(8) Hawks - 3.3% (-3.8)
(6) Nuggets - 2.2% (-3.2)
(8) Pelicans - 1.8% (+1.4)
(7) Nets - 1.6% (-1.3)
(5) Raptors - 1.4% (-9.0)
Memphis saw the biggest benefit here, while Milwaukee took a big hit with that loss to Chicago last night, which also gave a nice boost to the Celtics.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
(2) Celtics - 48.5% (+3.0)
(1) Suns - 38.3% (-6.2)
(3) Warriors - 26.5% (+3.7)
(1) Heat - 25.2% (+1.4)
(5) Jazz - 14.7% (-2.0)
(4) 76ers - 14.0% (+3.3)
(2) Grizzlies - 13.8% (+4.2)
(3) Bucks - 9.9% (-4.2)
(4) Mavericks - 3.8% (+1.9)
(7) Timberwolves - 2.2% (-1.3)
(8) Hawks - 0.8% (-0.9)
(6) Bulls - 0.7% (+0.3)
(6) Nuggets - 0.438% (-0.6)
(7) Nets - 0.436% (-0.4)
(5) Raptors - 0.36% (-2.6)
(8) Pelicans - 0.2% (+0.1)
Phoenix took the biggest hit here, with both Memphis and Golden State looking strong while the Suns fell.
Odds of Winning NBA Finals
(2) Celtics - 25.5% (+2.0)
(1) Suns - 24.6% (-5.1)
(3) Warriors - 14.4% (+2.0)
(1) Heat - 10.5% (+1.0)
(5) Jazz - 7.4% (-1.4)
(2) Grizzlies - 7.1% (+2.3)
(4) 76ers - 4.6% (+1.3)
(3) Bucks - 3.3% (-1.3)
(4) Mavericks - 1.4% (+0.7)
(7) Timberwolves - 0.6% (-0.5)
(8) Hawks - 0.2% (-0.2)
(6) Nuggets - 0.11% (-0.2)
(6) Bulls - 0.094% (+0.05)
(5) Raptors - 0.086% (-0.63)
(7) Nets - 0.075% (-0.025)
(8) Pelicans - 0.03% (+0.022)
Phoenix is no longer the favorite to win the title, though a road win tomorrow could possibly swing it back in their favor. My pick to win the East is still looking strong, with Boston taking the top overall odds for now.
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