Thursday, April 28, 2022

NBA Playoff Odds - Update after Game 5

3 more series have been closed out in the past 2 days, leaving only half of the first-round series yet to be decided. Here are the updated odds for each of the 12 teams still alive in the hunt for the championship, with change from Tuesday in parentheses:

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Suns - 93.1% (+9.2)

(2) Grizzlies - 84.0% (+16.7)

(4) 76ers - 77.8%

(4) Mavericks - 70.7%

(5) Jazz - 29.3%

(5) Raptors - 22.2%

(7) Timberwolves - 16.0% (-16.7)

(8) Pelicans - 6.9% (-9.2)

Every game left in this round is a potential elimination game, with Phoenix the most likely to close it out in Game 6 and the most likely to advance in general.


Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(2) Celtics - 67.5% (-1.5)

(1) Suns - 65.3% (+6.9)

(1) Heat - 64.9% (+3.1)

(3) Warriors - 55.4% (-1.4)

(2) Grizzlies - 40.6% (+7.3)

(3) Bucks - 32.5% (+1.8)

(4) 76ers - 28.3% (-0.9)

(4) Mavericks - 21.9% (-3.7)

(5) Jazz - 11.5% (-1.5)

(5) Raptors - 6.9% (-0.3)

(7) Timberwolves - 4.0% (-4.6)

(8) Pelicans - 1.2% (-1.8)

Memphis took a big jump here after pushing Minnesota to the brink of elimination, and that dropped Golden State's odds despite the Warriors closing out the Nuggets last night. Dallas and Utah both saw their odds drop without playing after Phoenix won Game 5.


Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 43.8% (-1.3)

(1) Suns - 40.6% (+4.1)

(1) Heat - 29.7% (+1.3)

(3) Warriors - 26.5% (-2.1)

(2) Grizzlies - 18.1% (+2.4)

(3) Bucks - 16.0% (+1.0)

(4) 76ers - 8.8% (-0.3)

(4) Mavericks - 8.2% (-1.7)

(5) Jazz - 5.4% (-0.8)

(5) Raptors - 1.8% (-0.1)

(7) Timberwolves - 1.0% (-1.3)

(8) Pelicans - 0.2% (-0.2)

Phoenix is the biggest riser here, and they have remained the team with the highest odds in the West throughout the playoffs so far, despite their struggles with the 8-seed Pelicans.


Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(1) Suns - 25.3% (+2.8)

(2) Celtics - 23.3% (-1.3)

(3) Warriors - 14.1% (-1.2)

(1) Heat - 12.8% (+0.1)

(2) Grizzlies - 9.2% (+1.2)

(3) Bucks - 6.0% (+0.3)

(4) Mavericks - 3.2% (-0.7)

(4) 76ers - 2.7% (-0.2)

(5) Jazz - 2.5% (-0.4)

(5) Raptors - 0.5%

(7) Timberwolves - 0.3% (-0.3)

(8) Pelicans - 0.02% (-0.08)

Phoenix surged back to the top of this list after taking the lead in the series, heading into an closeout opportunity tonight.

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