Tuesday, April 26, 2022

NBA Playoff Odds - Update after Game 4

Boston finished off their sweep of the Nets to become the first team to advance out of the first round this season, and they are also the current favorite to win it all again after Phoenix's loss on Sunday. Here are the updated odds for the 15 remaining teams, with change from Sunday in parentheses:

Odds of Winning First Round

(3) Bucks - 96.6% (+10.0)

(3) Warriors - 95.8% (-2.6)

(1) Heat - 95.2% (+13.1)

(1) Suns - 83.9% (-10.7)

(4) 76ers - 77.8% (-13.8)

(4) Mavericks - 70.7% (+27.0)

(2) Grizzlies - 67.3% 

(7) Timberwolves - 32.7%

(5) Jazz - 29.3% (-27.0)

(5) Raptors - 22.2% (+13.8)

(8) Pelicans - 16.1% (+10.7)

(8) Hawks - 4.8% (-13.1)

(6) Nuggets - 4.2% (+2.6)

(6) Bulls - 3.4% (-10.0)

Dallas' blowout of Utah gave them a huge boost and made them the favorite in the series for the first time. Toronto is inching closer to becoming the first team to ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in the NBA, and Phoenix is still struggling to get through their first round series, but is still favored.


Odds of Making Conference Finals

(2) Celtics - 69.0% (-2.8)

(1) Heat - 61.8% (+11.4)

(1) Suns - 58.4% (-6.4)

(3) Warriors - 56.8% (-2.1)

(2) Grizzlies - 33.3% (+0.8)

(3) Bucks - 30.7% (+4.1)

(4) 76ers - 29.2% (-10.9)

(4) Mavericks - 25.6% (+13.5)

(5) Jazz - 13.0% (-9.2)

(7) Timberwolves - 8.6% (+0.5)

(5) Raptors - 7.2% (+4.2)

(8) Pelicans - 3.0% (+2.1)

(8) Hawks - 1.8% (-4.7)

(6) Nuggets - 1.3% (+0.8)

(6) Bulls - 0.3% (-1.0)

Dallas got a huge boost with their win and Phoenix's loss, because they may now end up getting more rest than their next opponent. Miami also made a huge leap with their road win, which pulled down Boston's odds even after the Celtics advanced past Brooklyn.


Odds of Making NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 45.1% (-3.5)

(1) Suns - 36.5% (-4.7)

(3) Warriors - 28.6% (+1.1)

(1) Heat - 28.4% (+5.9)

(2) Grizzlies - 15.7% (+1.8)

(3) Bucks - 15.0% (+1.8)

(4) Mavericks - 9.9% (+5.5)

(4) 76ers - 9.1% (-4.1)

(5) Jazz - 6.2% (-4.7)

(7) Timberwolves - 2.3% (+0.4)

(5) Raptors - 1.9% (+1.1)

(8) Pelicans - 0.42% (+0.3)

(8) Hawks - 0.36% (-1.1)

(6) Nuggets - 0.3% (+0.2)

(6) Bulls - 0.1% (-0.2)

Miami and Dallas are again the big winners here, while Boston and Phoenix both fell a bit. Memphis and Milwaukee also moved up, even though the Grizzlies didn't even play a game in the last 2 days.


Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 24.6% (-0.8)

(1) Suns - 22.5% (-3.8)

(3) Warriors - 15.3% (+0.2)

(1) Heat - 12.7% (+3.5)

(2) Grizzlies - 8.0% (+0.8)

(3) Bucks - 5.7% (+1.2)

(4) Mavericks - 3.9% (+2.2)

(5) Jazz - 2.9% (-2.5)

(4) 76ers - 2.9% (-1.2)

(7) Timberwolves - 0.6% (+0.1)

(5) Raptors - 0.5% (+0.3)

(8) Hawks - 0.1% (-0.2)

(6) Nuggets - 0.1% (+0.08)

(8) Pelicans - 0.1% (+0.09)

(6) Bulls - 0.01% (-0.02)

Phoenix took the biggest hit here, while Miami took most of what the Suns lost. Dallas and Utah switched spots in the lower level of the hierarchy as well.

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