NBA Finals Odds

It's finally down to the final 2 teams. Golden State's players have over 100 games of NBA Finals experience among them, and they are hosting the Boston Celtics tonight in Game 1, which features a roster without a single player who has ever played in the championship round. Boston is also looking to break their tie with the Lakers for most overall championships won, while Stephen Curry is looking for his 4th title, but first Finals MVP. Here are my odds and picks for the Finals:

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 55.5%

(3) Warriors - 44.5%

My Pick

Celtics in 6

NBA Finals Odds and Prediction

The NBA Finals start tonight, with Phoenix making their first appearance in 28 years aiming for their first title ever, while Milwaukee is making their first appearance in 47 years and aiming for their first title in 50 years. The current odds have Phoenix as the favorite, 58.3% to 41.7%, with the most likely outcome being Phoenix in 7 games, with Phoenix in 6 and Phoenix in 5 the next most likely outcomes. 

Taking the overall odds into account, then factoring in the regular season matchups, both 1-point Suns wins, which is basically a wash, and the potential for Giannis Antetokounmpo to miss multiple games, my official pick for this series is:

Phoenix in 6

NBA Finals Odds

The NBA Finals begin this weekend, with the two-time defending champs facing the Toronto Raptors in a very interesting matchup. (By the way, this is the matchup I predicted at the beginning of the playoffs.)

First of all, the Golden State Warriors are only the second team to reach the NBA Finals for 5 straight seasons, joining the Boston Celtics, who reached 10 straight from 1957-1966. The Toronto Raptors, meanwhile, are playing in their first ever championship series, meaning Game 1 will be the first Finals game ever played outside the United States.

This series also boasts 4 of the past 5 Finals MVP's, with 2014 MVP Kawhi Leonard now in Toronto, 2015 MVP Andre Iguodala playing an important supporting role for the Warriors, two-time defending MVP Kevin Durant questionable to play for the Warriors after injuring his leg a couple weeks ago. Though Durant may be the best player on either team, his absence doesn't kill the Warriors' chances. In fact, the Warriors are 33-4 when Curry plays but Durant does not over the past 3 seasons, meaning that Curry is stepping in to fill that void when he is needed.

This series also boasts 3 of the past 4 Defensive Players of the Year, with 2017 winner Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard, who won the award during the two previous seasons, facing off this year. Both are versatile defenders who are usually assigned to the opponent's best player, but the Warriors also have Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala available to defend Leonard, while Golden State's best player is Curry right now, and his speed may be tough for Leonard to cover.

I've broken down the odds of any possible pattern of wins happening in this series, and am breaking it down by winner and length of series:

Raptors in 4 - 3.5%
Raptors in 5 - 9.9%
Raptors in 6 - 10.1%
Raptors in 7 - 15.9%
Raptors total - 39.4%

Warriors in 4 - 9.4%
Warriors in 5 - 14.8%
Warriors in 6 - 21.8%
Warriors in 7 - 14.5%
Warriors total - 60.6%

The first two games in Toronto will be super important. Toronto's best chance comes in a long series, which means they need to win their home games to keep the series going. The Warriors' best odds come in a medium length series, so they will need to steal home court from Toronto, which will be easier to do in the first two games, because a 2-0 road hole is difficult to overcome, though the Raptors proved it was possible just a couple days ago.

Taking everything into account, my prediction for this year's champion is:

Warriors in 6

NBA Finals Preview

The NBA Finals start tonight, and the Warriors are making their first appearance in 40 years, led by league MVP Stephen Curry. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are in the Finals for the first time in 8 years, but LeBron James is making his 5th consecutive appearance in the final series, the first player to do so in 46 years. I've got my odds and pick for the Finals below:

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

Warriors - 79.6%
Cavaliers - 20.4%

Most Likely Finals Outcome

Warriors in 5 - 26.9%

Least Likely Finals Outcome

Cavaliers in 4 - 1.6%

Odds of Team Winning Finals on Home Court

54.7%

Odds of Sweep in Finals

17.3%

Odds of Series Reaching Game 7

25.3%

Best Chance of Cleveland Winning

6 games - 8.1%

My Pick

Golden State in 6

Predictions

Cleveland at Golden State - Warriors by 6

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 49-26 overall (.653)

NBA Season Review and Finals Prediction

In the preseason, I predicted each team's regular season record and how far each would advance in the playoffs in a post you can see here. Just as with my NFL preview, I correctly predicted the two teams that would eventually meet in the championship before the season began. I also had quite a bit of success picking playoff teams and overall records, and some of the results are below:

Eastern Conference Playoff Teams

I correctly predicted 7 of the 8 teams that would make the playoffs in the East, including both Toronto and Washington, who had missed the playoffs the year before. I correctly predicted that Boston and Milwaukee would miss the playoffs after qualifying the season before, but incorrectly picked New York to make the playoffs rather than Charlotte.

Western Conference Playoff Teams

I also picked 7 of the 8 Western Conference playoff teams correctly, including Portland taking the place of the LA Lakers, which was not a very popular pick by the experts. My lone miss in the West was Dallas making the playoffs instead of the Nuggets, who fell apart in the middle of the season, while Dallas sneaked in during the final week of the season.

Eastern Conference Surprise

The Charlotte Bobcats won 43 games this season, 22 more than the season before, and 15 more than my original prediction. Al Jefferson had his best season since the lockout-shortened season in 2009, back when he was still in Minnesota, and his improvement was the biggest reason that Charlotte made the playoffs in their final season as the Bobcats.

Eastern Conference Disappointment

The Brooklyn Nets made the playoffs and even advanced through the first round, but bigger things were expected of a team that bought an All-Star-loaded roster in the offseason, racking up the biggest payroll in the league in the process. The roster was full of disappointments, with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko, Joe Johnson, and Deron Williams each having their worst seasons in over a decade and Brook Lopez spending most of the season injured.

Eastern Conference Perfect Pick

In the preseason I picked the Indiana Pacers to finish with a record of 56-26, an improvement of 7 games over last season, and they did exactly that. They actually did a little better in the postseason than I had picked, making it to the Conference Finals before losing, rather than losing in the second round, as I thought before the season.

Western Conference Surprise

The Phoenix Suns won 48 games, tying the record for most wins without making the playoffs, and they weren't eliminated from contention until the final week of the season, which was much different than my preseason prediction, which had them winning only 17 games and being eliminated by the All-Star break. It certainly helps when you have 3 of the top 10 vote-getters for Most Improved Player on the roster, as well as the runner-up for Coach of the Year on the bench.

Western Conference Disappointment

Denver did not perform well under rookie head coach Brian Shaw, much like Brooklyn under Jason Kidd. Andre Miller's blowup at the coach during their long mid-season losing streak was the lowlight, other than the fact that they missed the playoffs for the first time in 11 years, right after letting George Karl go as coach. Ty Lawson continues to improve, but when journeyman Randy Foye is your second-best player, you know you have problems.

Western Conference Perfect Pick

I predicted that the LA Clippers would win 59 games and take the #2 seed in the Western Conference this season, and I was only slightly off in that pick. The ended up with 57 wins and a #3 seed, but they still lost in the second round, just as I had picked. They are making steady improvement, and with a likely change of ownership coming this summer, they could become an even more enticing destination for free agents.

NBA Finals Prediction

In the preseason, I picked the Miami Heat to score a repeat victory over the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals. I am slightly modifying that prediction now, with the games getting ready to start tomorrow. My official prediction for this season's NBA champion is:

Spurs over Heat in 5 games.

The Spurs will win both home games to open the series, after which Miami will take game 3 at their arena, but San Antonio will close it out with a road win in game 4 and will finish off the series at home in game 5, the first time in 30 years that the format will be changed to allow the team with the better record to play game 5 at home. The Finals MVP voting will be close for the first time in years, with Tim Duncan nabbing his 4th postseason MVP award over Tony Parker.

NBA Playoff Predictions

The NBA Playoffs start today, with 16 teams vying for the title of NBA Champion. While there may technically be 16 teams still alive, how many of those teams have a realistic chance of winning the title, and how many actually have a good chance? I've crunched the numbers for every game for the entire season, factoring in home court advantage, strength of schedule, and momentum, then figured out the odds of any potential matchup and series length to determine which teams you should be watching for this year. In general, the favorites should do pretty well, but there could be some surprises. Here are my odds for each team advancing and my predictions for which teams will win each series:

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Miami over (8) Milwaukee - 96.2%
(1) Oklahoma City over (8) Houston - 84.4%
(2) New York over (7) Boston - 84.1%
(3) Denver over (6) Golden State - 78.9%
(2) San Antonio over (7) LA Lakers - 76.3%
(3) Indiana over (6) Atlanta - 75.7%
(4) Brooklyn over (5) Chicago - 69.0%
(4) LA Clippers over (5) Memphis - 65.0%

Odds of Making Conference Finals

Miami - 82.0%
Oklahoma City - 61.8%
New York - 54.6%
Denver - 46.4%
San Antonio - 40.8%
Indiana - 35.1%
LA Clippers - 23.8%
Brooklyn - 13.8%
Memphis - 9.3%
Golden State - 6.9%
Atlanta - 6.2%
LA Lakers - 5.8%
Houston - 5.1%
Boston - 4.1%
Chicago - 3.2%
Milwaukee - 1.0%

Odds of Making NBA Finals

Miami - 60.8%
Oklahoma City - 47.1%
New York - 20.6%
Denver - 18.0%
San Antonio - 13.8%
LA Clippers - 13.2%
Indiana - 11.3%
Brooklyn - 5.2%
Memphis - 4.1%
Houston - 1.9%
Golden State - 1.0%

Odds of Winning Championship

Oklahoma City - 32.7%
Miami - 31.6%
Denver - 9.3%
LA Clippers - 7.1%
San Antonio - 6.4%
New York - 6.2%
Indiana - 2.8%
Memphis - 1.7%

Odds of Various Finals Matchups

2 Former ROY's - 61.6%
2 Scoring Leaders - 50.2%
2012 rematch (Heat vs. Thunder) - 28.6%
2 Former Sixth Men of the Year - 18.2%
2 Former Finals MVP's - 17.0%
2 Former MVP's - 9.1%
2 Teams with no championships (Nets or Pacers vs. Clippers, Grizzlies or Nuggets) - 5.8%
2 Former MIP's - 3.1%
2 Lower Seeds - 0.2%
2 Former DPOY's - 0.2%
2 Teams that Missed 2012 Playoffs - 0.2%
2010 rematch (Lakers vs. Celtics) (AKA Rebounding Leaders) - 0.004%

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.
Regular season results in parentheses.

First Round

Heat over Bucks in 4 (Heat 3-1)
Knicks over Celtics in 5 (Knicks 3-1)
Pacers over Hawks in 5 (Tied 2-2)
Nets over Bulls in 6 (Chicago 3-1)

Thunder over Rockets in 5 (Thunder 2-1)
Spurs over Lakers in 5 (Spurs 2-1)
Nuggets over Warriors in 5 (Nuggets 3-1)
Clippers over Grizzlies in 6 (Clippers 3-1)

Second Round

Heat over Nets in 5 (Heat 3-0)
Knicks over Pacers in 7 (Tied 2-2)
Thunder over Clippers in 6 (Thunder 3-0)
Nuggets over Spurs in 7 (Tied 2-2)

Conference Finals

Heat over Knicks in 6 (Knicks 3-1)
Thunder over Nuggets in 6 (Nuggets 3-1)

NBA Finals

Thunder over Heat in 7 (Heat 2-0)

There you go. It looks very likely that we will see a rematch of last season's Finals, which has happened 12 times previously in 66 seasons, but only once in the last 23 years, when Utah and Chicago met in 1997 and 1998. I plan to update my odds again after each team has played its first 2 games, so watch for that next week and see what changes come with those results.

NBA Finals Preview

The waiting game is over. Only two teams remain. Miami, eager to make up for last season's disappointment in the Finals, closed out the Eastern Conference Finals with two huge wins over the Boston Celtics. Oklahoma City, a team that has been on the rise for years, came back from a 2-0 deficit and ended San Antonio's 20-game winning streak with four straight wins to advance to their first Finals since the move to the Midwest. It's shaping up to be a very fun and competitive Finals.

Oklahoma City is entering the NBA Finals with three days more rest than the Miami Heat, thanks to their ability to close out their series a game earlier than their new opponent. But how much does rest really matter? In the history of the NBA, 61 teams have entered the Finals with at least a day more rest than their opponent, and those teams have a record of 34-27, for a winning percentage of .557. It's not a huge advantage, but it has been becoming more important in recent years, so that gives a slight advantage to OKC.

There is also a great individual matchup going on in this year's Finals. For only the 6th time in history, the league's MVP is going up against the league's scoring leader for the championship trophy. In the previous 5 matchups, the scoring leaders have a 3-2 advantage, but all three of those victories belong to Michael Jordan, when they beat LA in 1991, Phoenix in 1993, and Utah in 1997. In each of those seasons Jordan probably should have been the MVP, so maybe they shouldn't really count. I would say that the advantage here goes to Miami.

The biggest factor in the series may be home court advantage. In NBA Finals history, the team with home court advantage has won 47 out of 65 series, for a winning percentage of .723. Add to that the fact that Oklahoma City is undefeated on its home court in this season's playoffs, and all they need to do is win those four games and the title is theirs. Big advantage to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Overall, I put the odds of the Thunder winning the series at 55.8%, and my Finals pick is Oklahoma City in 7 games.

NBA Finals Odds - 11 Jun

Dallas won 2 out of 3 games on their home floor to put Miami up against the wall for the first time this postseason, but Miami still has the advantage of playing the final two games on their own court. Should Dallas hold on to win the Finals, they will be only the second team in the past 27 years to win the championship after trailing 2-1, and they are very familiar with the first, because they were on the losing end that year against Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat. Will history repeat itself, or will the Heat hold off Dirk and Dallas again? Here are the odds of each team winning the championship as of today.

Odds of Dallas in 6 - 38.3%

Odds of Miami in 7 - 38.1%

Odds of Dallas in 7 - 23.6%

The most likely scenario has Dallas closing out the series tomorrow night in Miami, but if they should happen to lose, the odds swing squarely in favor of Miami, who would be playing at home and coming off a do-or-die victory to keep themselves alive. If Dallas wants to win the title, they need to have the killer instinct tomorrow, and Miami must play like they have nothing to lose. Whichever team wants to win game 6 more should win the title.

Predictions - 11 Jun

Most Likely MLB Blowouts

Athletics over White Sox

Blue Jays over Red Sox

Royals over Angels

Brewers over Cardinals

Yankees over Indians

Phillies over Cubs

Most Likely MLB Upsets

Athletics over White Sox

Blue Jays over Red Sox

Royals over Angels

Brewers over Cardinals

Twins over Rangers

Prediction Results - 8/9 Jun

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 56-24 overall (.700)

MLB Blowouts: 3-1 (.750) 10-4 overall (.714)

MLB Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 7-6 overall (.538)