In the preseason, I predicted each team's regular season record and how far each would advance in the playoffs in a post you can see here. Just as with my NFL preview, I correctly predicted the two teams that would eventually meet in the championship before the season began. I also had quite a bit of success picking playoff teams and overall records, and some of the results are below:
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
I correctly predicted 7 of the 8 teams that would make the playoffs in the East, including both Toronto and Washington, who had missed the playoffs the year before. I correctly predicted that Boston and Milwaukee would miss the playoffs after qualifying the season before, but incorrectly picked New York to make the playoffs rather than Charlotte.
Western Conference Playoff Teams
I also picked 7 of the 8 Western Conference playoff teams correctly, including Portland taking the place of the LA Lakers, which was not a very popular pick by the experts. My lone miss in the West was Dallas making the playoffs instead of the Nuggets, who fell apart in the middle of the season, while Dallas sneaked in during the final week of the season.
Eastern Conference Surprise
The Charlotte Bobcats won 43 games this season, 22 more than the season before, and 15 more than my original prediction. Al Jefferson had his best season since the lockout-shortened season in 2009, back when he was still in Minnesota, and his improvement was the biggest reason that Charlotte made the playoffs in their final season as the Bobcats.
Eastern Conference Disappointment
The Brooklyn Nets made the playoffs and even advanced through the first round, but bigger things were expected of a team that bought an All-Star-loaded roster in the offseason, racking up the biggest payroll in the league in the process. The roster was full of disappointments, with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko, Joe Johnson, and Deron Williams each having their worst seasons in over a decade and Brook Lopez spending most of the season injured.
Eastern Conference Perfect Pick
In the preseason I picked the Indiana Pacers to finish with a record of 56-26, an improvement of 7 games over last season, and they did exactly that. They actually did a little better in the postseason than I had picked, making it to the Conference Finals before losing, rather than losing in the second round, as I thought before the season.
Western Conference Surprise
The Phoenix Suns won 48 games, tying the record for most wins without making the playoffs, and they weren't eliminated from contention until the final week of the season, which was much different than my preseason prediction, which had them winning only 17 games and being eliminated by the All-Star break. It certainly helps when you have 3 of the top 10 vote-getters for Most Improved Player on the roster, as well as the runner-up for Coach of the Year on the bench.
Western Conference Disappointment
Denver did not perform well under rookie head coach Brian Shaw, much like Brooklyn under Jason Kidd. Andre Miller's blowup at the coach during their long mid-season losing streak was the lowlight, other than the fact that they missed the playoffs for the first time in 11 years, right after letting George Karl go as coach. Ty Lawson continues to improve, but when journeyman Randy Foye is your second-best player, you know you have problems.
Western Conference Perfect Pick
I predicted that the LA Clippers would win 59 games and take the #2 seed in the Western Conference this season, and I was only slightly off in that pick. The ended up with 57 wins and a #3 seed, but they still lost in the second round, just as I had picked. They are making steady improvement, and with a likely change of ownership coming this summer, they could become an even more enticing destination for free agents.
NBA Finals Prediction
In the preseason, I picked the Miami Heat to score a repeat victory over the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals. I am slightly modifying that prediction now, with the games getting ready to start tomorrow. My official prediction for this season's NBA champion is:
Spurs over Heat in 5 games.
The Spurs will win both home games to open the series, after which Miami will take game 3 at their arena, but San Antonio will close it out with a road win in game 4 and will finish off the series at home in game 5, the first time in 30 years that the format will be changed to allow the team with the better record to play game 5 at home. The Finals MVP voting will be close for the first time in years, with Tim Duncan nabbing his 4th postseason MVP award over Tony Parker.
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