The waiting game is over. Only two teams remain. Miami, eager to make up for last season's disappointment in the Finals, closed out the Eastern Conference Finals with two huge wins over the Boston Celtics. Oklahoma City, a team that has been on the rise for years, came back from a 2-0 deficit and ended San Antonio's 20-game winning streak with four straight wins to advance to their first Finals since the move to the Midwest. It's shaping up to be a very fun and competitive Finals.
Oklahoma City is entering the NBA Finals with three days more rest than the Miami Heat, thanks to their ability to close out their series a game earlier than their new opponent. But how much does rest really matter? In the history of the NBA, 61 teams have entered the Finals with at least a day more rest than their opponent, and those teams have a record of 34-27, for a winning percentage of .557. It's not a huge advantage, but it has been becoming more important in recent years, so that gives a slight advantage to OKC.
There is also a great individual matchup going on in this year's Finals. For only the 6th time in history, the league's MVP is going up against the league's scoring leader for the championship trophy. In the previous 5 matchups, the scoring leaders have a 3-2 advantage, but all three of those victories belong to Michael Jordan, when they beat LA in 1991, Phoenix in 1993, and Utah in 1997. In each of those seasons Jordan probably should have been the MVP, so maybe they shouldn't really count. I would say that the advantage here goes to Miami.
The biggest factor in the series may be home court advantage. In NBA Finals history, the team with home court advantage has won 47 out of 65 series, for a winning percentage of .723. Add to that the fact that Oklahoma City is undefeated on its home court in this season's playoffs, and all they need to do is win those four games and the title is theirs. Big advantage to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Overall, I put the odds of the Thunder winning the series at 55.8%, and my Finals pick is Oklahoma City in 7 games.
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