College Football Rankings - 17 Nov

There was only one loss among last week's top 10 teams, leaving the majority of the rankings looking pretty familiar, and keeping the odds pretty high that there will be 3-4 undefeated major conference teams at the close of the season. I'm picking both non-AQ undefeateds to lose in their conference championship games, thereby opening up more BCS slots for teams that actually deserve them, since neither has played any ranked team, and Northern Illinois has just beaten their first opponent with a winning record. Here are my full rankings:

Rank	LW	Team	Record	Rating	Pred	Ch	Undef %
1	1	Florida State	10-0	-43.4404	13-0		100.0
2	2	Baylor	9-0	-39.3081	12-0		83.7
3	3	Oregon	9-1	-38.5906	12-1	+1
4	4	Alabama	10-0	-31.9066	12-1		41.9
5	5	Arizona State	8-2	-28.6973	10-3
6	9	Wisconsin	8-2	-28.1889	10-2
7	6	Ohio State	10-0	-27.873	13-0		82.2
8	7	Stanford	8-2	-26.4966	10-2	-1
9	8	Missouri	9-1	-26.0016	11-2
10	11	Clemson	9-1	-24.674	11-1	+1
11	10	Washington	6-4	-22.7228	8-4
12	12	Auburn	10-1	-21.9952	10-2
13	18	Oklahoma State	9-1	-21.2794	10-2
14	15	UCLA	8-2	-21.2792	9-3	+1
15	14	Brigham Young	7-3	-21.0543	9-3
16	13	Georgia Tech	6-4	-19.8686	8-4
17	17	LSU	7-3	-19.7987	9-3
18	19	USC	8-3	-19.5923	10-3	+1
19	20	Utah	4-6	-19.0279	6-6
20	16	South Carolina	8-2	-18.8891	9-3
21	21	Texas A&M	8-2	-18.5395	9-3	+1
22	22	Utah State	6-4	-17.4563	8-4
23	26	Georgia	6-4	-17.2622	7-5
24	25	Louisville	9-1	-16.1857	11-1
25	23	Miami (FL)	7-3	-15.6095	9-3
26	24	Arizona	6-4	-15.5132	6-6	-1
27	27	Virginia Tech	7-4	-13.8266	8-5	-1
28	28	Houston	7-3	-13.7877	9-3
29	32	Boise State	7-3	-13.7344	10-3
30	30	Ole Miss	7-3	-13.3677	8-4
31	36	Duke	8-2	-12.5828	9-3
32	35	Oregon State	6-4	-12.4855	6-6
33	34	Florida	4-6	-12.0616	5-7
34	29	UCF	8-1	-11.7984	11-1
35	38	Michigan State	9-1	-11.7533	11-2	+1
36	41	Oklahoma	8-2	-11.4606	8-4
37	31	Kansas State	6-4	-11.2424	8-4
38	40	Mississippi State	4-6	-10.8072	5-7
39	37	North Carolina	5-5	-10.7311	7-5	+1
40	33	Marshall	7-3	-10.1113	9-4	-1
41	42	Washington State	5-5	-10.0246	5-7	+1
42	46	East Carolina	8-2	-9.25562	9-3
43	39	Texas	7-3	-8.66718	8-4
44	43	Notre Dame	7-3	-8.58983	7-5
45	45	Texas Tech	7-4	-8.218	7-5
46	58	Bowling Green	7-3	-7.65007	9-4	+1
47	47	Iowa	6-4	-7.51997	7-5
48	44	Fresno State	9-0	-7.44999	11-1		22.5
49	48	Vanderbilt	6-4	-7.31341	7-5
50	53	Michigan	7-3	-6.44187	7-5
51	49	Pittsburgh	5-5	-6.16907	6-6
52	51	Tennessee	4-6	-5.7511	5-7
53	62	Northern Illinois	10-0	-5.17064	12-1		17.3
54	54	North Texas	7-3	-4.98613	9-4
55	61	Navy	6-4	-4.84398	8-4	+1
56	50	Indiana	4-6	-4.77487	5-7
57	59	Boston College	6-4	-4.56982	7-5
58	52	Nebraska	7-3	-4.42392	8-4	-1
59	64	Toledo	7-3	-3.82766	8-4
60	66	Rice	7-3	-3.51032	9-3
61	71	Cincinnati	8-2	-3.35267	8-4
62	63	Minnesota	8-2	-2.8057	8-4
63	57	Northwestern	4-6	-2.73065	5-7	-1
64	60	Syracuse	5-5	-2.64628	6-6
65	67	TCU	4-7	-2.62579	4-8
66	56	Ball State	9-2	-2.52496	10-2
67	55	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-2	-2.52175	10-2
68	65	Buffalo	7-3	-2.10269	8-4	-1
69	68	Arkansas State	6-4	-0.45869	7-5
70	69	Penn State	6-4	-0.34339	7-5
71	77	Colorado State	6-5	0.097079	7-6
72	70	Florida Atlantic	4-6	0.100407	6-6
73	83	Maryland	6-4	0.830924	7-5	+1
74	76	Wake Forest	4-6	1.345798	4-8
75	73	Kentucky	2-8	1.476878	2-10	-1
76	74	Middle Tennessee	6-4	1.580204	8-4
77	80	Memphis	3-6	1.95576	5-7	+1
78	75	Western Kentucky	6-4	2.160095	7-5
79	79	North Carolina State	3-7	2.267326	4-8
80	86	Illinois	3-7	3.434655	4-8
81	85	Virginia	2-8	3.749033	2-10
82	72	Ohio	6-4	3.86594	8-4
83	84	UTSA	5-5	4.073375	6-6
84	81	West Virginia	4-7	4.202915	5-7
85	90	Colorado	4-6	4.275812	4-8
86	78	San Jose State	5-5	4.287296	6-6
87	87	Tulane	6-4	4.292976	7-5
88	93	Nevada	4-7	5.66321	4-8	+1
89	89	Troy	5-6	5.66718	6-6
90	91	Arkansas	3-7	6.086109	3-9
91	88	South Alabama	3-6	6.184151	5-7
92	82	Rutgers	5-4	7.247732	7-5
93	96	San Diego State	6-4	7.81462	6-6
94	92	California	1-10	8.488765	1-11
95	94	UNLV	5-5	8.789804	6-6
96	99	Southern Methodist	4-5	9.065872	5-7	+1
97	101	Temple	1-9	9.424572	2-10
98	98	Louisiana-Monroe	5-5	9.591811	5-7
99	95	Iowa State	1-9	9.661735	2-10
100	105	Kansas	3-7	9.988719	3-9
101	100	Hawaii	0-10	10.51327	1-11	-1
102	97	Wyoming	4-6	10.86996	5-7
103	106	Tulsa	2-8	11.09888	3-9
104	102	Texas State	6-4	11.73837	7-5
105	104	Army	3-7	11.8512	3-9
106	103	New Mexico	3-7	13.58534	3-9
107	107	Akron	4-7	13.64451	4-8
108	108	Kent State	3-8	14.02674	3-9
109	109	South Florida	2-7	15.1187	3-9
110	112	Air Force	2-8	16.78617	2-10
111	110	UAB	2-8	17.16641	3-9
112	111	Louisiana Tech	4-6	17.91838	4-8	-1
113	113	Central Michigan	4-6	18.19966	6-6	+1
114	114	Purdue	1-9	18.56333	1-11
115	115	Connecticut	0-9	19.88365	1-11
116	116	UTEP	2-8	21.51263	2-10
117	117	Massachusetts	1-9	22.49972	1-11	-1
118	118	Western Michigan	1-10	24.25033	1-11
119	120	Georgia State	0-10	26.09289	0-12
120	119	Eastern Michigan	2-8	27.60975	2-10
121	123	Miami (OH)	0-10	27.93065	0-12
122	122	Idaho	1-9	27.94342	1-11
123	121	New Mexico State	1-9	28.24192	2-10
124	124	Southern Miss	0-10	33.0479	0-12
125	125	Florida International	1-9	34.86669	1-11

Wisconsin has moved up to #6 in this week's rankings, jumping 3 spots to land between the two teams that have defeated the Badgers so far this season. Both of those losses came by one possession on the road, and they have dominated nearly every other opponent they faced, but the two losses are causing them to be overlooked by the BCS and the voters, who only had them at #22 last week.

Oklahoma State beat up on Texas yesterday, going into Austin and dismantling the Longhorns 38-13, setting up a huge showdown against Baylor this weekend in a game that will probably determine the Big 12 champion and may be the only chance anyone has of beating the Bears this season. The Cowboys are hosting, but Baylor's offense has shown no signs of slowing down, and Oklahoma State has given up some big scoring games.

Georgia moved back into the top 25 this week after coming dangerously close to upsetting Auburn on the road last night, losing only because of a miracle touchdown on 4th and 18 by the Tigers in the final minute. 5 of the Bulldogs' previous opponents are currently in my top 20, with one more to come, but they've only gone 2-3 against the tough teams, and they've struggled with the average teams on their schedule as well, only going 2-1 with all 3 games being decided by 4 points or fewer.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Portland at Toronto - Trail Blazers by 1
Memphis at Sacramento - Grizzlies by 4
Detroit at LA Lakers - Pistons by 1

College Basketball Winners

Air Force
Baylor
Boston College
Clemson
Connecticut
Florida State
Gonzaga
Hampton
Houston
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
IPFW
James Madison
Kansas State
Kent State
Kentucky
Loyola Marymount
Maryland
Massachusetts
Milwaukee
Morehead State
Mount St. Mary's
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio
Pacific
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Stanford
Texas A&M-CC
UC Irvine
UCF
UMBC
UNC Greensboro
UTEP
Villanova
Washington
West Virginia
Western Michigan

Pick of the Day

Washington State finished off Lamar early this morning, so today's pick will be for 10 in a row. I'm picking:

Iowa

The Hawkeyes face Abilene Christian this afternoon, one of several teams new to Division I this season, so they should have no problem remaining undefeated.

Prediction Results

College Football: 40-11 (.784) 532-145 overall (.786)
Upsets: 3-4 (.429) 45-51 overall (.469)
Vs. Spread: 6-4 (.600) 52-47 overall (.525)
NBA: 8-3 (.727) 88-58 overall (.603)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 17-11 overall (.607)
College Basketball: 65-12 (.844) 453-99 overall (.821)
Upsets: 11-3 (.786) 33-16 overall (.673)