College Football Rankings - 24 Nov

It was not a good week for top teams who faced real opponents, as both Oregon and Baylor lost road games against strong opponents, while Florida State and Alabama scheduled cupcakes to add easy wins to their total and sway poll voters to their cause. Luckily, the computers are able to differentiate a little better and were not swayed by wuss week as much as the voters will be. Here are my full current rankings:

Rank	LW	Team	Record	Rating	Pred	Ch	Undef %
1	1	Florida State	11-0	-43.5256	13-0		100.0
2	2	Baylor	9-1	-36.0324	11-1	-1
3	3	Oregon	9-2	-35.8724	10-2	-2
4	4	Alabama	11-0	-32.0469	12-1		38.4
5	5	Arizona State	9-2	-29.7208	11-2	+1
6	7	Ohio State	11-0	-28.617	13-0		76.2
7	6	Wisconsin	9-2	-27.8289	10-2
8	8	Stanford	9-2	-27.6966	10-3
9	9	Missouri	10-1	-27.0587	11-2
10	11	Washington	7-4	-26.4318	8-4
11	13	Oklahoma State	10-1	-26.0119	11-1	+1
12	10	Clemson	10-1	-25.3234	10-2	-1
13	12	Auburn	10-1	-23.2588	10-2
14	17	LSU	8-3	-22.2661	9-3
15	16	Georgia Tech	7-4	-22.1224	8-4
16	14	UCLA	8-3	-21.924	8-4	-1
17	20	South Carolina	9-2	-20.901	10-2	+1
18	26	Arizona	7-4	-20.4776	7-5	+1
19	18	USC	9-3	-20.3785	10-3
20	15	Brigham Young	7-4	-19.773	8-4	-1
21	23	Georgia	7-4	-19.1834	7-5
22	19	Utah	4-7	-17.9715	5-7	-1
23	21	Texas A&M	8-3	-17.5048	8-4	-1
24	22	Utah State	7-4	-16.8323	9-4	+1
25	25	Miami (FL)	8-3	-16.0028	9-3
26	27	Virginia Tech	7-4	-15.0838	8-5
27	24	Louisville	10-1	-14.7322	11-1
28	35	Michigan State	10-1	-14.6441	11-2
29	39	North Carolina	6-5	-14.1848	7-5
30	30	Ole Miss	7-4	-13.7585	7-5	-1
31	31	Duke	9-2	-13.6873	9-3
32	36	Oklahoma	9-2	-13.4444	9-3	+1
33	29	Boise State	7-4	-12.7995	8-4	-2
34	34	UCF	9-1	-12.3535	11-1
35	41	Washington State	6-5	-12.236	6-6	+1
36	28	Houston	7-4	-12.2044	8-4	-1
37	37	Kansas State	6-5	-11.8299	7-5	-1
38	38	Mississippi State	5-6	-11.605	6-6	+1
39	42	East Carolina	9-2	-11.43	9-3
40	44	Notre Dame	8-3	-11.0986	8-4	+1
41	40	Marshall	8-3	-10.7212	9-4
42	32	Oregon State	6-5	-10.2411	6-6
43	48	Fresno State	10-0	-9.77109	11-1		22.2
44	46	Bowling Green	8-3	-9.68861	9-4
45	43	Texas	7-3	-9.6294	8-4
46	45	Texas Tech	7-4	-9.0867	7-5
47	33	Florida	4-7	-8.88288	4-8	-1
48	47	Iowa	7-4	-8.64778	7-5
49	50	Michigan	7-4	-8.26111	7-5
50	49	Vanderbilt	7-4	-8.12534	8-4	+1
51	53	Northern Illinois	11-0	-8.11817	12-1		45.7
52	51	Pittsburgh	6-5	-7.6546	6-6
53	55	Navy	7-4	-6.2621	8-4
54	61	Cincinnati	9-2	-6.1556	9-3	+1
55	56	Indiana	4-7	-5.99465	5-7
56	52	Tennessee	4-7	-5.84531	5-7
57	58	Nebraska	8-3	-5.8338	9-3	+1
58	57	Boston College	7-4	-5.61865	7-5
59	62	Minnesota	8-3	-4.32661	8-4
60	69	Arkansas State	7-4	-4.30773	7-5
61	65	TCU	4-7	-4.09489	4-8
62	67	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-2	-4.06224	9-3	-1
63	66	Ball State	9-2	-3.4436	10-2
64	54	North Texas	7-4	-3.36718	8-4	-1
65	64	Syracuse	5-6	-3.29423	6-6
66	68	Buffalo	8-3	-3.0385	8-4
67	59	Toledo	7-4	-2.65881	8-4
68	60	Rice	8-3	-2.39105	9-4
69	63	Northwestern	4-7	-1.91948	4-8	-1
70	72	Florida Atlantic	5-6	-1.85884	6-6
71	78	Western Kentucky	7-4	-1.3225	8-4	+1
72	70	Penn State	6-5	-1.23146	6-6	-1
73	71	Colorado State	6-6	-0.93535	7-6
74	77	Memphis	3-7	-0.51943	5-7
75	73	Maryland	6-5	0.143203	6-6	-1
76	74	Wake Forest	4-7	0.587483	4-8
77	76	Middle Tennessee	7-4	0.979898	8-4
78	83	UTSA	6-5	1.126123	7-5	+1
79	87	Tulane	7-4	1.598208	7-5
80	79	North Carolina State	3-8	1.803629	4-8
81	80	Illinois	4-7	2.581982	5-7	+1
82	81	Virginia	2-9	2.589961	2-10
83	75	Kentucky	2-9	2.613511	2-10
84	91	South Alabama	4-6	2.949704	5-7
85	86	San Jose State	5-6	3.364581	5-7	-1
86	85	Colorado	4-7	3.422841	4-8
87	84	West Virginia	4-7	3.657859	5-7
88	89	Troy	5-6	3.699244	6-6
89	88	Nevada	4-7	4.776185	4-8
90	90	Arkansas	3-8	5.316654	3-9
91	93	San Diego State	7-4	5.847685	7-5	+1
92	95	UNLV	6-5	6.035596	7-5	+1
93	99	Iowa State	2-9	6.247743	2-10
94	92	Rutgers	5-5	6.919217	6-6	-1
95	96	Southern Methodist	5-5	7.205161	5-7
96	82	Ohio	6-5	7.676431	7-5	-1
97	94	California	1-11	8.513519	1-11
98	98	Louisiana-Monroe	5-6	9.138021	5-7
99	108	Kent State	4-8	9.22619	4-8	+1
100	103	Tulsa	3-8	9.384778	3-9
101	101	Hawaii	0-11	9.529891	1-11
102	102	Wyoming	5-6	10.4258	5-7
103	97	Temple	1-10	10.49769	1-11	-1
104	105	Army	3-7	11.42233	3-9
105	100	Kansas	3-8	11.73961	3-9
106	104	Texas State	6-5	12.23775	6-6	-1
107	107	Akron	4-7	12.77627	4-8
108	106	New Mexico	3-8	14.05365	3-9
109	109	South Florida	2-8	14.73482	2-10	-1
110	111	UAB	2-9	14.78816	3-9
111	113	Central Michigan	5-6	15.36644	6-6
112	114	Purdue	1-10	16.52746	1-11
113	115	Connecticut	1-9	16.93678	2-10	+1
114	110	Air Force	2-9	17.26725	2-10
115	112	Louisiana Tech	4-7	18.54704	4-8
116	119	Georgia State	0-11	22.15469	0-12
117	116	UTEP	2-9	22.98514	2-10
118	118	Western Michigan	1-10	23.4232	1-11
119	117	Massachusetts	1-10	23.95758	1-11
120	122	Idaho	1-10	26.13582	1-11
121	121	Miami (OH)	0-11	28.21181	0-12
122	123	New Mexico State	1-10	28.31878	2-10
123	120	Eastern Michigan	2-9	29.05998	2-10
124	124	Southern Miss	0-11	32.18849	0-12
125	125	Florida International	1-10	34.25384	1-11

It may seem strange to see Baylor and Oregon still ranked ahead of Alabama after losing yesterday, but when you look at the strength of schedule numbers, it makes more sense. Let's take a look at the top 6 teams:

Florida State
Wins: 12, 25, 52, 58, 65, 75, 76, 80, 90, 121
Losses: None
Margin of Victory: 43.8
SOS: 76
Home Games: +3

Baylor
Wins: 32, 37, 46, 66, 87, 93, 98, 105
Losses: 11
MOV: 36.2
SOS: 65
Home: +3

Oregon
Wins: 10, 16, 22, 35, 56, 82, 86, 97
Losses: 8, 18
MOV: 27.3
SOS: 25
Home: +1

Alabama
Wins: 14, 23, 26, 30, 38, 56, 73, 83, 90, 117
Losses: None
MOV: 30.4
SOS: 55
Home: +4

Arizona State
Wins: 7, 10, 16, 19, 22, 35, 42, 86
Losses: 8, 40
MOV: 16.7
SOS: 2
Home: +2

Ohio State
Wins: 7, 48, 55, 66, 69, 72, 81, 91, 97, 112
Losses: None
MOV: 30.3
SOS: 67
Home: +3

As you can see, Florida State has the weakest schedule among the top 6, but they also have the largest margin of victory by far. They beat the two tough opponents they faced by an average of 46-14, which is why the Seminoles are still ranked #1 despite the weak schedule.

Baylor's strength of schedule falls right between Alabama's and Ohio State's, and while the Bears have a loss on their schedule, it was on the road and against a tougher opponent than Alabama has played all year. Ohio State has one win against a better team than Oklahoma State, but they played Wisconsin at home.

Oregon may have two losses, but both were on the road against ranked teams. Their strength of schedule is much better than those of the other top BCS contenders, and their schedule is the least home-heavy of the six top teams. Since home field advantage is worth about a 5 point difference in college football compared to a neutral site, playing a team on the road causes a 10-point swing in the expected margin.

Alabama likes to brag about their tough conference schedule, but this year 5 of their 6 conference wins have come against the bottom 6 teams in the conference, with only LSU and Texas A&M as exceptions. They did not have to play any of the top 5 teams in the East, but their SOS will improve over the next 2 weeks, with a game against Auburn helping, and with a win there they will play either Missouri or South Carolina. Any of those teams are better than any the Tide have faced so far this season, so we'll finally see how good they really are.

Arizona State has been ranked near the top for quite a while now, and a look at their schedule shows why. They have played 3 top 10 teams, beating 2 of them, 2 things none of the others listed here can say. They are also 5-1 against the top 25, while the others combined are just 8-3, and their #2 strength of schedule makes a 9-2 record pretty impressive.

Ohio State has played only one good opponent all season, with 10 cupcakes as the filling for an undefeated season. Michigan no longer qualifies as a tough matchup, meaning that only the conference championship game against Michigan State will get them another quality opponent, and the Spartans may not even have cracked the top 25 at that point. It's easy to see that FSU winning by 44 against nobodies is more impressive than OSU doing the same but by only 30 per game.

You may have also noticed an impossibility in the predicted final records. I have both Alabama and Missouri going 1-1 to finish the season, which cannot happen, because if either loses this week, it will be their final game, and only one can lose in the conference championship game. The fact is that each has a tough matchup this week, but both are predicted to win in a close game. The odds of each winning this weekend are just above 50%, which means there is a very good chance that one will lose. Whichever survives this weekend will play in the title game against a very good opponent, and no matter the matchup, the odds of a win will be close to 50% for either of them. What that means is that both are favored to win this week, but that one will likely lose, and the other will likely lose the next week. Either way, the SEC will be shaken up a bit over the next 2 weeks.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Detroit at Brooklyn - Pistons by 1
Chicago at LA Clippers - Clippers by 1
Phoenix at Orlando - Suns by 3
Utah at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 15
Sacramento at LA Lakers - Lakers by 5

College Basketball

Kansas State vs. Long Beach State - Wildcats by 8
(19) New Mexico vs. Davidson - Lobos by 14
Siena at Purdue - Boilermakers by 18
Oakland vs. St. Francis (NY) - Terriers by 1
(24) North Carolina vs. (3) Louisville - Cardinals by 11
Longwood at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 26
Bryant at New Hampshire - Bulldogs by 7
FIU at South Carolina - Gamecocks by 12
Florida Atlantic vs. Toledo - Rockets by 15
Georgetown vs. (10) VCU - Hoyas by 5
IPFW at Kennesaw State - Owls by 1
Army at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 21
North Carolina A&T at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 22
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at SMU - Mustangs by 27
Loyola (IL) vs. SIU-Edwardsville - Ramblers by 4
Nebraska vs. Georgia - Cornhuskers by 5
Louisiana-Lafayette at Coastal Carolina - Ragin Cajuns by 1
William Carey at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 43
Richmond vs. Fairfield - Spiders by 5
Hampton at Missouri State - Bears by 9
Central Arkansas at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 15
Houston Baptist at South Alabama - Jaguars by 16
Stony Brook at Detroit - Titans by 1
St. Joseph's (IN) at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 23
LIU Brooklyn vs. Boston - Terriers by 13
Harvard at Colorado - Buffaloes by 1
Northeastern vs. Florida State - Seminoles by 6
Wofford at High Point - Panthers by 15
Sam Houston at Texas A&M - Aggies by 3
North Dakota State at North Dakota - No Nicknames by 1
TCU at Washington State - Cougars by 20
Morehead State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 7
UC Davis at Portland State - Vikings by 6
Hartford vs. Holy Cross - Crusaders by 7
Vermont at (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 19
Charlotte vs. (14) Michigan - Wolverines by 4
UAB vs. Temple - Blazers by 3
Eastern Washington at UC Irvine - Anteaters by 4
Northern Iowa vs. Maryland - Terrapins by 4
San Francisco at (17) Oregon - Ducks by 13
Hofstra vs. Belmont - Bruins by 14
Alcorn State at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 33
Massachusetts vs. Clemson - Minutemen by 3
Providence vs. La Salle - Friars by 11
Chattanooga at (22) UCLA - Bruins by 16

Pick of the Day

Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's hosts Alcorn State tonight, but don't let the Braves' 3-1 record deceive you. All 3 of those wins came against Division II teams, and the Gaels are a top-notch mid-major school. Here's to 17 straight.

Prediction Results

College Football: 44-15 (.746) 576-160 overall (.783)
Upsets: 9-7 (.563) 54-58 overall (.482)
NBA: 7-3 (.700) 125-71 overall (.638)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 22-15 overall (.595)
College Basketball: 68-14 (.829) 760-167 overall (.820)
Upsets: 10-2 (.833) 69-33 overall (.676)