For the second consecutive week, Miami lost a road game against a conference leader, and the result is that the Heat are no longer the top-ranked team in the league. That left the door open for the last two teams to beat Miami, and both moved up this week, but only one could be #1. Here are the updated rankings, counting all games through Sunday, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Chicago (3-0) (40-10) -6.88 (2)
2. Miami (3-1) (35-12) -6.19 (1)
3. Oklahoma City (4-1) (37-12) -4.76 (4)
4. Philadelphia (2-2) (27-22) -4.36 (3)
5. San Antonio (4-0) (33-14) -3.98 (5)
6. Indiana (3-1) (28-19) -1.46 (7)
7. LA Lakers (2-3) (30-19) -1.33 (6)
8. New York (3-1) (24-25) -1.15 (11)
9. Orlando (2-2) (31-18) -0.77 (9)
10. Atlanta (5-1) (30-20) -0.51 (10)
11. Memphis (2-3) (26-21) -0.17 (8)
12. Dallas (2-2) (28-22) 0.05 (15)
13. LA Clippers (2-3) (27-21) 0.40 (12)
14. Milwaukee (2-2) (22-26) 0.701 (17)
15. Utah (4-1) (26-23) 0.704 (18)
16. Phoenix (3-2) (25-24) 0.78 (21)
17. Boston (3-1) (26-22) 1.03 (19)
18. Houston (2-2) (26-23) 1.05 (20)
19. Minnesota (2-3) (24-26) 1.23 (16)
20. Denver (1-3) (26-23) 1.47 (13)
21. Portland (2-3) (23-26) 1.53 (14)
22. Golden State (2-3) (20-27) 2.69 (22)
23. Toronto (1-3) (16-33) 4.99 (23)
24. Sacramento (2-2) (17-31) 5.54 (27)
25. New Orleans (1-2) (12-36) 6.11 (25)
26. Detroit (0-4) (16-32) 6.16 (26)
27. Cleveland (1-4) (17-29) 6.21 (24)
28. Washington (1-4) (11-37) 7.77 (29)
29. New Jersey (1-3) (16-34) 8.11 (28)
30. Charlotte (0-3) (7-39) 13.68 (30)
Memphis would have fallen a lot farther without their road win against the Lakers last night, because the three games before were losses against struggling teams, Sacramento, Portland, and the Clippers. The lone win they had previously earned this week was against Washington, and a 5-point win over one of the league's worst teams at home is hardly something to brag about.
Utah's six-game winning streak ended last night in a quadruple-overtime loss to Atlanta, but before that, they had won games against both the Thunder and Lakers as they crept into the Western Conference playoff picture, replacing Denver among the top 8 teams. Their next five games are either against bad teams or struggling teams, so they could strengthen their position heading into April.
Phoenix has lost only 4 times since the All-Star Break, and three of those losses came on the road against top 10 teams, Oklahoma City, Orlando, and Miami. While none of their victories have been against the best teams, the quantity of wins has finally started to elevate them in the standings and the rankings, with the playoffs within reach.
The moment Ricky Rubio went down was the turning point in Minnesota's season, but not in a good way. At that point they were 21-19 and within a game of entering the playoff race, but since that fateful day they have won only 3 of 10 games and have fallen to 11th place in the West. While they are much improved over last year, it looks like this isn't the year they will break their playoff drought.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Monday
Miami at Indiana - Heat by 2
Detroit at Washington - Wizards by 2
Orlando at Toronto - Magic by 3
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 10
Utah at New Jersey - Jazz by 4
Milwaukee at New York - Knicks by 5
Denver at Chicago - Bulls by 12
Sacramento at Houston - Rockets by 8
New Orleans at LA Clippers - Clippers by 9
Tuesday
Cleveland at Philadelphia - 76ers by 14
Atlanta at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
Minnesota at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
Houston at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
San Antonio at Phoenix - Spurs by 2
Oklahoma City at Portland - Thunder by 3
LA Lakers at Golden State - Lakers by 1
Wednesday
Detroit at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
Orlando at New York - Knicks by 4
Denver at Toronto - Nuggets by 1
Minnesota at Charlotte - Timberwolves by 9
Chicago at Atlanta - Bulls by 3
Utah at Boston - Celtics by 3
Indiana at New Jersey - Pacers by 7
San Antonio at Sacramento - Spurs by 6
Phoenix at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
New Orleans at Golden State - Warriors by 7
Thursday
Washington at Indiana - Pacers by 12
Dallas at Miami - Heat by 9
New Orleans at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers - Thunder by 1
Friday
Philadelphia at Washington - 76ers by 9
Miami at Toronto - Heat by 8
Denver at Charlotte - Nuggets by 9
New York at Atlanta - Hawks by 2
Milwaukee at Cleveland - Bucks by 2
Detroit at Chicago - Bulls by 16
Memphis at Houston - Rockets by 2
Boston at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Dallas at Orlando - Magic by 4
Sacramento at Utah - Jazz by 8
New Jersey at Golden State - Warriors by 9
Portland at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
Saturday
New Orleans at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11
Charlotte at Detroit - Pistons by 11
Cleveland at New York - Knicks by 11
Atlanta at Philadelphia - 76ers by 6
Memphis at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
Indiana at San Antonio - Spurs by 6
New Jersey at Sacramento - Kings by 6
Utah at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
Sunday
Chicago at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 1
Miami at Boston - Heat by 4
Denver at Orlando - Magic by 5
Washington at Toronto - Raptors by 6
Indiana at Houston - Rockets by 1
New Orleans at Phoenix - Suns by 8
Minnesota at Portland - Trail Blazers by 3
Golden State at LA Lakers - Lakers by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 45-20 (.692) 311-166 overall (.652)
Upsets: 5-7 (.417) 49-41 overall (.544)
Monday, March 26, 2012
Saturday, March 24, 2012
NBA MVP Rankings - 24 Mar
The Lakers have started to heat up now that the season is entering its final stages, and it hasn't been just one player pulling the load. Although they have had just one representative on this list for the majority of the season, their current resurgence is due to a couple of big men who have now made this upper echelon as well. The top few players have not changed in quite a while, but there a many players trying to sneak into the top 5 and possibly displace one of the favorites, and they still have over a month to get there, so nothing is set in stone yet. Here are my latest MVP and Most Improved Rankings, with rising players in green and falling players in red and a description of their best recent game.
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 27.0 pts, 8.4 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.0 stl, .539 FG%, .375 3P%, .766 FT%
March 16 at PHI - 29 pts, 7 reb, 8 ast, 2 blk, 2 stl, 12-20 FG (W 84-78)
Miami nearly blew a 20-point lead against a strong 76ers team, but LeBron scored 4 points in the final 90 seconds, two on a pull-up jumper and another two on free throws, to prevent the upset and keep Miami in the hunt for the best record in the East, where they are currently 2.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.9 pts, 8.1 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .498 FG%, .366 3P%, .852 FT%
March 23 vs. MIN - 40 pts, 17 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl, 15-26 FG, 3-6 3P, 7-7 FT (W 149-140)
Incredibly, Durant's 40 points were the third-highest output in this game, and it was the second time this season that Durant and Westbrook had each eclipsed the 40-point mark on the same night. His 17 rebounds were a season-high, and he was very efficient shooting the ball from everywhere, which nearly allowed them to win the game in regulation after his 3-pointer with 3.9 seconds remaining, but Love matched him a couple seconds later and the game continued.
3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 24.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.6 stl, .475 FG%, .338 3P%, .823 FT%
March 23 vs. MIN - 45 pts, 4 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl, 17-28 FG, 2-4 3P, 9-9 FT (W 149-140)
Westbrook was also not the highest scorer in this game, but his 45 points were a career high, and his steal and 3-point play to open the second overtime may have been the play that decided the game. Like Durant, he was perfect from the free throw line for the night, and he also shot over 60% from the field, which is an incredible feat for any point guard, and proof that he belongs this high.
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.5 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.3 stl, .429 FG%, .845 FT%
March 13 at MEM - 34 pts, 9 reb, 5 ast, 11-25 FG, 11-12 FT (W 116-111)
Despite scoring only 12 points in the first half, Bryant turned it on in the second half, scoring or assisting on nearly every important basket as the Lakers came back from an early deficit to defeat the Grizzlies in double overtime. The game kept LA ahead of Memphis in the Western Conference standings, and gave Kobe his fifth 30-point game of the month, a number which has now reached 7.
5. Dwight Howard - ORL - 21.0 pts, 14.8 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .582 FG%, .484 FT%
March 13 vs. MIA - 24 pts, 25 reb, 2 blk, 3 stl, 9-13 FG, 6-18 FT (W 104-98)
Not only did Howard notch his 8th 20-20 game of the season and the 40th of his career, he also led the Magic back from a big deficit to defeat the visiting Miami Heat in overtime. After the game, he announced that he would remain with the Magic for the remainder of the season and that he would not opt out of his contract when the season ends, which seems to have taken a big load off of the entire team.
6. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.6 stl, .505 FG%, .801 FT%
March 18 vs. ORL - 31 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 13-25 FG, 5-7 FT (W 91-81)
Wade scored 14 of his 31 points in the fourth quarter and made back-to-back baskets to stretch a 1-point lead to 5 late in the game as he helped Miami avenge their loss earlier in the week to Orlando. Wade is starting to look like the great player we've know him to be for years, and there is a good chance we'll see him up in the top 3 before too long.
7. Kevin Love - MIN - 26.2 pts, 13.7 reb, 1.8 ast, .452 FG%, .381 3P%, .812 FT%
March 23 at OKC - 51 pts, 14 reb, 16-27 FG, 7-11 3P, 12-16 FT (L 140-149)
Even though Minnesota lost the game, it was a night to remember for Kevin Love. He scored a career-high 51 points, 8 more than his previous high, and his 7 three-pointers were also the most he has ever made. He hit a 3-pointer with less than 1 second remaining in regulation that forced the first overtime, then scored 8 straight in the first extra period before the Wolves collapsed.
8. Pau Gasol - LAL - 16.8 pts, 10.4 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.3 blk, .512 FG%, .762 FT%
March 21 at DAL - 27 pts, 9 reb, 13-16 FG, 1-1 3P (W 109-93)
Pau had a great night from the field, shooting the ball at over 80% for the night, and the Lakers beat the Mavericks for the third time in three tries this season, ending Dallas' 4-game winning streak. One of the biggest shots of the game was a 3-point shot from Gasol, only his fifth of the season, that gave LA a 14-point lead with 8 minutes to go and pretty much sealed the fate of both teams.
9. Blake Griffin - LAC - 20.9 pts, 10.9 reb, 2.9 ast, .527 FG%, .544 FT%
March 11 vs. GSW - 27 pts, 12 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk, 10-19 FG, 7-15 FT (L 93-97)
Griffin's best game over the past two weeks came in a loss to the lowly Golden State Warriors, which kind of sums up how the Clippers' season has been going lately as well. His struggles from the line prevented them from making a comeback, and Griffin has begun to slide downward just like his team.
10. Andrew Bynum - LAL - 18.0 pts, 12.5 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.0 blk, .582 FG%, .664 FT%
March 13 at MEM - 37 pts, 16 reb, 15-18 FG, 7-8 FT (W 116-111)
Bynum has not even been on my honorable mention list before today, but this game at Memphis showed what a dominant player he can be. The 37 points established his season-high, and he only missed three shots from the field all night as the Lakers held off Memphis' attempt to pass Los Angeles for the West's third-best record. Bynum has reached 30 points three times this month, after never reaching it in the first 2+ months of the season.
Dropping Out
Derrick Rose - CHI
Tony Parker - SAS
Honorable Mention
Tony Parker - SAS
Josh Smith - ATL
James Harden - OKC
Marc Gasol - MEM
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Derrick Rose - CHI
Chris Bosh - MIA
Most Improved Player
1. Jeremy Lin - NYK - +12.1 pts, +1.8 reb, +4.8 ast, +0.5 stl, +.057 FG%, +.110 3P%, +.037 FT%
March 17 at IND - 19 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast, 6-10 FG, 7-8 FT (W 102-88)
You may think that Linsanity has ended now that Carmelo Anthony has returned, and while Lin's overall numbers have dropped a little this month, the Lin Dynasty is just beginning in New York. In the 25 games since he was inserted into the lineup, he has scored in double digits 22 times, and he has reached 10 assists in six games as well.
2. Jeff Teague - ATL - +7.1 pts, +0.8 reb, +2.4 ast, +1.1 stl, +.031 FG%
March 23 vs. NJN - 17 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast, 5-8 FG, 1-2 3P, 6-7 FT (W 93-84)
Teague led the Atlanta Hawks in assists last night and scored an uncontested layup that gave them a nine-point lead, their largest of the game, with just under 4 minutes remaining. He appears to be getting back on track, scoring at least 10 points in 5 of his last 6 games.
3. Andrew Bynum - LAL - +6.7 pts, +3.2 reb
See MVP #10 above.
4. Greg Monroe - DET - +6.9 pts, +2.4 reb, +1.2 ast, +.145 FT%
March 14 at SAC - 32 pts, 11 reb, 3 ast, 15-20 FG, 2-3 FT (W 124-112)
Monroe matched his career-high with 32 points, and made up for the last time he faced Sacramento, when he finished with only 3, as Detroit won a road game for the first time in nearly a month. Some night Monroe can be a total beast, but other nights he finished with lines of 5 points and 6 rebounds, as he did last night against Miami.
5. Ryan Anderson - ORL - +5.3 pts, +2.2 reb, +.015 3P%, +.043 FT%
March 21 vs. PHX - 29 pts, 4 reb, 9-16 FG, 7-12 3P, 4-6 FT (W 103-93)
Anderson 7 three-pointers marked the first time this month that he made more than 3 in a game, and he played just as well in the first half as the second, splitting his scoring 15-14 and his 3-pointers 4-3, keeping it consistent all night. His 3-point percentage, which had been far above 40% for the first two months of the season, has been only 34% this month, so this night was much needed.
Dropping Out
Marcin Gortat - PHX
Honorable Mention
Marcin Gortat - PHX
Paul George - IND
James Harden - OKC
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 27.0 pts, 8.4 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.0 stl, .539 FG%, .375 3P%, .766 FT%
March 16 at PHI - 29 pts, 7 reb, 8 ast, 2 blk, 2 stl, 12-20 FG (W 84-78)
Miami nearly blew a 20-point lead against a strong 76ers team, but LeBron scored 4 points in the final 90 seconds, two on a pull-up jumper and another two on free throws, to prevent the upset and keep Miami in the hunt for the best record in the East, where they are currently 2.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.9 pts, 8.1 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .498 FG%, .366 3P%, .852 FT%
March 23 vs. MIN - 40 pts, 17 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl, 15-26 FG, 3-6 3P, 7-7 FT (W 149-140)
Incredibly, Durant's 40 points were the third-highest output in this game, and it was the second time this season that Durant and Westbrook had each eclipsed the 40-point mark on the same night. His 17 rebounds were a season-high, and he was very efficient shooting the ball from everywhere, which nearly allowed them to win the game in regulation after his 3-pointer with 3.9 seconds remaining, but Love matched him a couple seconds later and the game continued.
3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 24.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.6 stl, .475 FG%, .338 3P%, .823 FT%
March 23 vs. MIN - 45 pts, 4 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl, 17-28 FG, 2-4 3P, 9-9 FT (W 149-140)
Westbrook was also not the highest scorer in this game, but his 45 points were a career high, and his steal and 3-point play to open the second overtime may have been the play that decided the game. Like Durant, he was perfect from the free throw line for the night, and he also shot over 60% from the field, which is an incredible feat for any point guard, and proof that he belongs this high.
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.5 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.3 stl, .429 FG%, .845 FT%
March 13 at MEM - 34 pts, 9 reb, 5 ast, 11-25 FG, 11-12 FT (W 116-111)
Despite scoring only 12 points in the first half, Bryant turned it on in the second half, scoring or assisting on nearly every important basket as the Lakers came back from an early deficit to defeat the Grizzlies in double overtime. The game kept LA ahead of Memphis in the Western Conference standings, and gave Kobe his fifth 30-point game of the month, a number which has now reached 7.
5. Dwight Howard - ORL - 21.0 pts, 14.8 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .582 FG%, .484 FT%
March 13 vs. MIA - 24 pts, 25 reb, 2 blk, 3 stl, 9-13 FG, 6-18 FT (W 104-98)
Not only did Howard notch his 8th 20-20 game of the season and the 40th of his career, he also led the Magic back from a big deficit to defeat the visiting Miami Heat in overtime. After the game, he announced that he would remain with the Magic for the remainder of the season and that he would not opt out of his contract when the season ends, which seems to have taken a big load off of the entire team.
6. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.6 stl, .505 FG%, .801 FT%
March 18 vs. ORL - 31 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 13-25 FG, 5-7 FT (W 91-81)
Wade scored 14 of his 31 points in the fourth quarter and made back-to-back baskets to stretch a 1-point lead to 5 late in the game as he helped Miami avenge their loss earlier in the week to Orlando. Wade is starting to look like the great player we've know him to be for years, and there is a good chance we'll see him up in the top 3 before too long.
7. Kevin Love - MIN - 26.2 pts, 13.7 reb, 1.8 ast, .452 FG%, .381 3P%, .812 FT%
March 23 at OKC - 51 pts, 14 reb, 16-27 FG, 7-11 3P, 12-16 FT (L 140-149)
Even though Minnesota lost the game, it was a night to remember for Kevin Love. He scored a career-high 51 points, 8 more than his previous high, and his 7 three-pointers were also the most he has ever made. He hit a 3-pointer with less than 1 second remaining in regulation that forced the first overtime, then scored 8 straight in the first extra period before the Wolves collapsed.
8. Pau Gasol - LAL - 16.8 pts, 10.4 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.3 blk, .512 FG%, .762 FT%
March 21 at DAL - 27 pts, 9 reb, 13-16 FG, 1-1 3P (W 109-93)
Pau had a great night from the field, shooting the ball at over 80% for the night, and the Lakers beat the Mavericks for the third time in three tries this season, ending Dallas' 4-game winning streak. One of the biggest shots of the game was a 3-point shot from Gasol, only his fifth of the season, that gave LA a 14-point lead with 8 minutes to go and pretty much sealed the fate of both teams.
9. Blake Griffin - LAC - 20.9 pts, 10.9 reb, 2.9 ast, .527 FG%, .544 FT%
March 11 vs. GSW - 27 pts, 12 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk, 10-19 FG, 7-15 FT (L 93-97)
Griffin's best game over the past two weeks came in a loss to the lowly Golden State Warriors, which kind of sums up how the Clippers' season has been going lately as well. His struggles from the line prevented them from making a comeback, and Griffin has begun to slide downward just like his team.
10. Andrew Bynum - LAL - 18.0 pts, 12.5 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.0 blk, .582 FG%, .664 FT%
March 13 at MEM - 37 pts, 16 reb, 15-18 FG, 7-8 FT (W 116-111)
Bynum has not even been on my honorable mention list before today, but this game at Memphis showed what a dominant player he can be. The 37 points established his season-high, and he only missed three shots from the field all night as the Lakers held off Memphis' attempt to pass Los Angeles for the West's third-best record. Bynum has reached 30 points three times this month, after never reaching it in the first 2+ months of the season.
Dropping Out
Derrick Rose - CHI
Tony Parker - SAS
Honorable Mention
Tony Parker - SAS
Josh Smith - ATL
James Harden - OKC
Marc Gasol - MEM
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Derrick Rose - CHI
Chris Bosh - MIA
Most Improved Player
1. Jeremy Lin - NYK - +12.1 pts, +1.8 reb, +4.8 ast, +0.5 stl, +.057 FG%, +.110 3P%, +.037 FT%
March 17 at IND - 19 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast, 6-10 FG, 7-8 FT (W 102-88)
You may think that Linsanity has ended now that Carmelo Anthony has returned, and while Lin's overall numbers have dropped a little this month, the Lin Dynasty is just beginning in New York. In the 25 games since he was inserted into the lineup, he has scored in double digits 22 times, and he has reached 10 assists in six games as well.
2. Jeff Teague - ATL - +7.1 pts, +0.8 reb, +2.4 ast, +1.1 stl, +.031 FG%
March 23 vs. NJN - 17 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast, 5-8 FG, 1-2 3P, 6-7 FT (W 93-84)
Teague led the Atlanta Hawks in assists last night and scored an uncontested layup that gave them a nine-point lead, their largest of the game, with just under 4 minutes remaining. He appears to be getting back on track, scoring at least 10 points in 5 of his last 6 games.
3. Andrew Bynum - LAL - +6.7 pts, +3.2 reb
See MVP #10 above.
4. Greg Monroe - DET - +6.9 pts, +2.4 reb, +1.2 ast, +.145 FT%
March 14 at SAC - 32 pts, 11 reb, 3 ast, 15-20 FG, 2-3 FT (W 124-112)
Monroe matched his career-high with 32 points, and made up for the last time he faced Sacramento, when he finished with only 3, as Detroit won a road game for the first time in nearly a month. Some night Monroe can be a total beast, but other nights he finished with lines of 5 points and 6 rebounds, as he did last night against Miami.
5. Ryan Anderson - ORL - +5.3 pts, +2.2 reb, +.015 3P%, +.043 FT%
March 21 vs. PHX - 29 pts, 4 reb, 9-16 FG, 7-12 3P, 4-6 FT (W 103-93)
Anderson 7 three-pointers marked the first time this month that he made more than 3 in a game, and he played just as well in the first half as the second, splitting his scoring 15-14 and his 3-pointers 4-3, keeping it consistent all night. His 3-point percentage, which had been far above 40% for the first two months of the season, has been only 34% this month, so this night was much needed.
Dropping Out
Marcin Gortat - PHX
Honorable Mention
Marcin Gortat - PHX
Paul George - IND
James Harden - OKC
Friday, March 23, 2012
Top 100 NBA Players: #14
Bill Russell
(Kalb: #4, Simmons: #2, BBR: #4)
Bill Russell is usually on the short list of players considered to be the best of all time, and you can see that each of the other rankings I have referenced above had him among the top 4 players of all time, but I've chosen to rank him significantly lower. I mean no disrespect in ranking him this low, but when you look at the facts, it just makes sense.
As I described earlier in my biography of Oscar Robertson, Russell played in an era of inflated statistics, so when you look at his career averages of 15.1 points and 22.5 rebounds per game, you must remember that those numbers are much higher due to the faster pace of the game and the lower shooting percentages that produced more available rebounds. If you adjust his stats for deflation to today's rates, his career numbers would be 12.1 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. That would still place him among the greatest rebounders of all time, but makes him quite average offensively.
In order to be considered one of the all-time greatest players, a player needs to be exceptional in multiple facets of the game, whether it is offense, defense, longevity, or winning. Russell was a subpar offensive player, shooting just 44% from the field and 56% from the line for his career, and his longevity was just average at 13 seasons. Russell is, however, one of the game's greatest defensive players, and if blocked shots had been counted during his career, it may have been possible to rank him higher, but there is no way to prove what he did during those years.
When it comes to winning, there was no one better. In his 13 seasons in the NBA, he won 11 NBA Championships. The two times he didn't when occurred when he was injured and unable to compete or worn out from his first season as both a player and a coach. Of those 11 title teams, Russell was the best player on 8, the famous 8 consecutive titles that covered most of the 1960's. During their first title run the Celtics were still Bob Cousy's team, and by the time they won their final two titles they had become John Havlicek's team. The Finals MVP award did not exist during his career, but if it had, he would have deserved to win it eight times, and in recognition of that the NBA renamed the Finals MVP award after him in 2009.
There are only 4 players in history who can claim they were the best player on at least 3 consecutive title teams: George Mikan, Bill Russell, Michael Jordan, and Shaquille O'Neal. There are only a few others who can even claim they were the best on 3 total, such as Bird, Magic, Duncan, and Havlicek. Besides those titles in the NBA, he also won a gold medal in the 1956 Olympics, as well as 2 national championship in his final two years at the University of San Francisco. So despite his shortcomings on the offensive side of the ball and his average longevity, Russell will always have a place among the game's greats.
The question of Russell vs. Drexler seems almost silly, but I have already shows that Russell was slightly overrated and Drexler was vastly underrated, so when you compare the two, they're actually closer than you think. They were both very good defensive players, with the slight edge going to Russell, and Drexler's 15 seasons give him the longevity edge over Russell. Drexler was a far better offensive player than Russell, averaging over 20 points per game for the majority of his career, a number that Russell never matched in a single season. But Russell still gets the edge here for his winning ways, since Drexler's title came after he became Olajuwon's second banana, while Russell led his team to championships nearly every season.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
NCAA Tournament Odds - 21 Mar
The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was exciting as usual, with a good mix of upsets and close games, and only a few games that weren't competitive. There are quite a few interesting games coming up, and several potential matchups that could be very fun to watch. Here are the results of several of my previous predictions, as well as the current odds of each team advancing in the tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been In
Among the 5 teams I named that should have been allowed into the NCAA Tournament, 4 won their first round games in the NIT, with Arizona, the lowest-ranked of the 5, being the lone loser of the bunch. Middle Tennessee is still alive and among the final 8 teams in that tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Only 2 of the five teams that should not have made the NCAA Tournament won a game, with Xavier the only one still alive, which is due to their extremely favorable second-round matchup with Lehigh, which took out Duke in the first round.
Most Underseeded Teams
Of the 10 teams I listed as being seeded too low, only two were able to overcome that disadvantage and win their opening matchups, Florida and Saint Louis. The others were unable to show their true potential due to a schedule that was tougher than it should have been on opening weekend.
Most Overseeded Teams
Of the 9 teams that I named as being seeded too high, 7 lost in the first round, and another lost in the second round, leaving only Xavier to represent them. 5 of those 7 were the victims of upsets, although they weren't all that surprising due to them being placed incorrectly. Xavier was the lucky one that faced another overseeded team in the opening round and a major Cinderella in the second round.
Number of First Round Upsets
I predicted 10.9 upsets in the first round, and there turned out to be 10, so I pretty much nailed this one on the head.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Of the 10 first round upsets, 6 were listed among the 13 most likely ones in my tournament preview, with the two that I had at over 50% both coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
I listed Lehigh as the most likely low seed to pull off the first round upset, and I think we all know how that went. I did not, however, see Norfolk State taking out Missouri.
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted that there would be 3.8, so the 3 that are still alive this year once again proved my formula correct.
Most Likely Cinderellas
All 3 of the low seeds still alive in the tournament were in my top 9 most likely Cinderellas, so I'm feeling pretty good about this one too.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
At the beginning of the tourney I picked 1.1 top seeds to make the Final Four, but that number has risen to 1.6 due to all 4 emerging from the first weekend unscathed. I still don't believe we will see more than two of them make it.
Odds of a #1 Winning the Championship
The odds of this have risen as well, from 37.2% before the tourney to 49.9% today, so there's a pretty good chance that we'll see one of the four hoisting the trophy at the end of it all.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
7 of my 8 most likely are still in as of the Sweet 16, so that's not too bad, although Missouri's absence is very surprising.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
1. North Carolina - 49.0%
2. Kentucky - 47.9%
3. Ohio State - 43.6%
4. Michigan State - 39.2%
5. Kansas - 34.1%
6. Syracuse - 25.8%
7. Baylor - 23.3%
8. Florida - 23.1%
9. Marquette - 21.8%
10. Wisconsin - 20.9%
Most Likely Champions
1. Kentucky - 16.4%
2. North Carolina - 15.4%
3. Ohio State - 15.1%
4. Michigan State - 11.4%
5. Kansas - 8.5%
6. Syracuse - 6.7%
7. Wisconsin - 4.7%
8. Florida - 4.5%
9. Marquette - 4.0%
10. Baylor - 3.8%
Only a couple of changes between the two lists, one being that Kentucky remains the most likely team to win the championship despite having lower odds than North Carolina of making the Final Four. A large part of that is the Tar Heels' region, which includes two of the Cinderella teams, meaning they have an easier path than many of the favorites. Also, Wisconsin and Baylor switched spots here, because Wisconsin is a much stronger team, but they face a tougher path to get to the Final Four, with both Syracuse and Ohio State standing in the way.
Odds of a Conference Having Multiple Teams in the Final Four
Big 10 - 45.3% (4 left)
Big East - 13.4% (4 left)
SEC - 11.1% (2 left)
Big 12 - 8.0% (2 left)
The ACC, despite having two teams still alive, cannot have both in the Final Four, because both are in the same region. The Big East has relatively low odds of getting two there because they are only in two regions, so two are guaranteed to be out. The Big 10 has its four teams spread among 3 regions, so there is a very good chance we'll see two teams from that conference among the Final Four teams. In fact, the odds are 4.9% that the Big 10 will have three representatives still standing after this weekend.
Championship Game Odds
All Big 10 - 10.8%
All Big 12 - 1.7%
All Big East - 2.7%
All Cats - 1.5%
All Birds - 2.7%
All Blue - 12.7%
All Green - 0.5%
All Red - 5.4%
All Orange - 1.4%
All Double-Digit Seeds - 0.1%
All Ohio - 0.9%
All Wisconsin - 1.0%
All Cincinnati (Brawl Rematch) - 0.1%
All K - 4.9%
All Mid-Major - 0.05%
All #1's - 20.4%
All #4's - 1.5%
There you have it, all the odds you could ever want to know about, and some you probably didn't. Enjoy the rest of the tournament, and good luck with your brackets.
Teams That Should Have Been In
Among the 5 teams I named that should have been allowed into the NCAA Tournament, 4 won their first round games in the NIT, with Arizona, the lowest-ranked of the 5, being the lone loser of the bunch. Middle Tennessee is still alive and among the final 8 teams in that tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Only 2 of the five teams that should not have made the NCAA Tournament won a game, with Xavier the only one still alive, which is due to their extremely favorable second-round matchup with Lehigh, which took out Duke in the first round.
Most Underseeded Teams
Of the 10 teams I listed as being seeded too low, only two were able to overcome that disadvantage and win their opening matchups, Florida and Saint Louis. The others were unable to show their true potential due to a schedule that was tougher than it should have been on opening weekend.
Most Overseeded Teams
Of the 9 teams that I named as being seeded too high, 7 lost in the first round, and another lost in the second round, leaving only Xavier to represent them. 5 of those 7 were the victims of upsets, although they weren't all that surprising due to them being placed incorrectly. Xavier was the lucky one that faced another overseeded team in the opening round and a major Cinderella in the second round.
Number of First Round Upsets
I predicted 10.9 upsets in the first round, and there turned out to be 10, so I pretty much nailed this one on the head.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Of the 10 first round upsets, 6 were listed among the 13 most likely ones in my tournament preview, with the two that I had at over 50% both coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
I listed Lehigh as the most likely low seed to pull off the first round upset, and I think we all know how that went. I did not, however, see Norfolk State taking out Missouri.
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted that there would be 3.8, so the 3 that are still alive this year once again proved my formula correct.
Most Likely Cinderellas
All 3 of the low seeds still alive in the tournament were in my top 9 most likely Cinderellas, so I'm feeling pretty good about this one too.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
At the beginning of the tourney I picked 1.1 top seeds to make the Final Four, but that number has risen to 1.6 due to all 4 emerging from the first weekend unscathed. I still don't believe we will see more than two of them make it.
Odds of a #1 Winning the Championship
The odds of this have risen as well, from 37.2% before the tourney to 49.9% today, so there's a pretty good chance that we'll see one of the four hoisting the trophy at the end of it all.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
7 of my 8 most likely are still in as of the Sweet 16, so that's not too bad, although Missouri's absence is very surprising.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
1. North Carolina - 49.0%
2. Kentucky - 47.9%
3. Ohio State - 43.6%
4. Michigan State - 39.2%
5. Kansas - 34.1%
6. Syracuse - 25.8%
7. Baylor - 23.3%
8. Florida - 23.1%
9. Marquette - 21.8%
10. Wisconsin - 20.9%
Most Likely Champions
1. Kentucky - 16.4%
2. North Carolina - 15.4%
3. Ohio State - 15.1%
4. Michigan State - 11.4%
5. Kansas - 8.5%
6. Syracuse - 6.7%
7. Wisconsin - 4.7%
8. Florida - 4.5%
9. Marquette - 4.0%
10. Baylor - 3.8%
Only a couple of changes between the two lists, one being that Kentucky remains the most likely team to win the championship despite having lower odds than North Carolina of making the Final Four. A large part of that is the Tar Heels' region, which includes two of the Cinderella teams, meaning they have an easier path than many of the favorites. Also, Wisconsin and Baylor switched spots here, because Wisconsin is a much stronger team, but they face a tougher path to get to the Final Four, with both Syracuse and Ohio State standing in the way.
Odds of a Conference Having Multiple Teams in the Final Four
Big 10 - 45.3% (4 left)
Big East - 13.4% (4 left)
SEC - 11.1% (2 left)
Big 12 - 8.0% (2 left)
The ACC, despite having two teams still alive, cannot have both in the Final Four, because both are in the same region. The Big East has relatively low odds of getting two there because they are only in two regions, so two are guaranteed to be out. The Big 10 has its four teams spread among 3 regions, so there is a very good chance we'll see two teams from that conference among the Final Four teams. In fact, the odds are 4.9% that the Big 10 will have three representatives still standing after this weekend.
Championship Game Odds
All Big 10 - 10.8%
All Big 12 - 1.7%
All Big East - 2.7%
All Cats - 1.5%
All Birds - 2.7%
All Blue - 12.7%
All Green - 0.5%
All Red - 5.4%
All Orange - 1.4%
All Double-Digit Seeds - 0.1%
All Ohio - 0.9%
All Wisconsin - 1.0%
All Cincinnati (Brawl Rematch) - 0.1%
All K - 4.9%
All Mid-Major - 0.05%
All #1's - 20.4%
All #4's - 1.5%
There you have it, all the odds you could ever want to know about, and some you probably didn't. Enjoy the rest of the tournament, and good luck with your brackets.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
NBA Rankings - 18 Mar
Last week I got wrapped up in the release of the NCAA Tournament bracket and didn't get to my NBA rankings, so this week I'm getting you updated, and I'm including what their rankings would have been last week here along with their rankings last time I posted. The season is 67% finished, and the playoff picture is starting to take shape, with Chicago in position to possibly clinch a playoff berth before the end of the month. Here are the latest rankings, with gaps between teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (2 Weeks) (Overall) Rating (LW) (LLW)
1. Miami (4-2) (32-11) -8.68 (2) (1)
2. Chicago (7-2) (37-10) -8.46 (1) (2)
3. Philadelphia (3-5) (25-20) -6.69 (3) (4)
4. Oklahoma City (4-3) (33-11) -5.58 (4) (3)
5. San Antonio (4-3) (29-14) -4.92 (5) (5)
6. LA Lakers (5-2) (28-16) -3.34 (9) (6)
7. Indiana (2-6) (25-18) -2.99 (7) (9)
8. Memphis (2-3) (24-18) -2.95 (6) (10)
9. Orlando (5-2) (29-16) -2.87 (13) (12)
10. Atlanta (3-4) (25-19) -2.67 (12) (15)
11. New York (3-5) (21-24) -2.35 (21) (17)
12. LA Clippers (4-5) (25-18) -2.18 (10) (13)
13. Denver (5-3) (25-20) -2.15 (11) (11)
14. Portland (3-4) (21-23) -1.69 (8) (7)
15. Dallas (4-4) (26-20) -1.27 (14) (8)
16. Minnesota (3-4) (22-23) -0.77 (15) (14)
17. Milwaukee (6-1) (20-24) -0.47 (22) (22)
18. Utah (5-3) (22-22) -0.30 (16) (18)
19. Boston (4-4) (23-21) -0.13 (18) (19)
20. Houston (3-5) (24-21) 0.35 (17) (16)
21. Phoenix (6-2) (22-22) 0.64 (20) (20)
22. Golden State (4-5) (18-24) 0.76 (19) (21)
23. Toronto (4-5) (15-30) 3.71 (25) (24)
24. Cleveland (3-3) (16-25) 4.07 (26) (27)
25. New Orleans (2-6) (11-34) 4.74 (23) (23)
26. Detroit (4-2) (16-28) 4.82 (27) (28)
27. Sacramento (3-5) (15-29) 4.93 (24) (25)
28. New Jersey (3-5) (15-31) 5.57 (28) (26)
29. Washington (2-5) (10-33) 7.13 (29) (29)
30. Charlotte (3-6) (7-36) 11.39 (30) (30)
Miami may not have won as many games as Chicago over the last 2 weeks, and they even lost to the Bulls last week, but Miami took back the lead from Chicago anyway. Both of their losses were in very close road games against top 10 teams, and 3 of their wins were also against teams in the top 10, so the sheer difficulty of these last two weeks for the Heat is what has allowed them to maintain their standing at the top.
Chicago, meanwhile, also lost two games over that stretch, one to the Orlando Magic, who also beat Miami, but the other one came against Portland, who has been struggling severely over the last month. Even worse, both losses came on their home court, and the game against the Blazers wasn't even that close. Luckily for Chicago, they can point to the fact that Derrick Rose is out to explain the loss, but it's still a loss.
Philadelphia moved up to #3 this week despite losing more games than they won over the past couple weeks. The thing to notice is that three of those losses were expected to happen, because they came against Chicago or Miami, and all three losses were by single digits. They are definitely not on the same level as the Heat or Bulls, but they are better than most of the other teams out there.
Since Dwight Howard announced he would remain in Orlando, the Magic have caught on fire, beating Chicago, Indiana, and Miami, while dropping only one game over that span, which was a tough road game against the Spurs. Before that announcement, the Magic lost a game to Charlotte, one of the worst teams in league history, so it's easy to see what a difference it has already made.
New York has responded in a very positive manner to a change in coaching, winning three straight games under Mike Woodson after losing their last 6 under Mike D'Antoni. Each of the three wins came by at least 15 points, and that should continue when they play Toronto on Tuesday before they face their first real test under Woodson on Wednesday when they travel to Philadelphia.
Portland, meanwhile, hasn't won two straight games since late January, and they have fallen to 12th place in the Western Conference playoff picture as a result. They are also playing with a new coach, but the results are still the same, with surprising wins over good teams sandwiched between losses to bad teams.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Atlanta at Cleveland - Hawks by 4
Detroit at LA Clippers - Clippers by 10
Minnesota at Sacramento - Timberwolves by 3
Washington at Memphis - Grizzlies by 13
Orlando at Miami - Heat by 9
Houston at Phoenix - Suns by 3
Utah at LA Lakers - Lakers by 6
Portland at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Monday
Philadelphia at Charlotte - 76ers by 15
Boston at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Cleveland at New Jersey - Nets by 2
Chicago at Orlando - Bulls by 3
Dallas at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Minnesota at Golden State - Warriors by 2
Tuesday
LA Clippers at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Toronto at New York - Knicks by 9
Phoenix at Miami - Heat by 12
LA Lakers at Houston - Lakers by 1
Oklahoma City at Utah - Thunder by 2
Milwaukee at Portland - Trail Blazers by 4
Memphis at Sacramento - Grizzlies by 5
Wednesday
Phoenix at Orlando - Magic by 7
New York at Philadelphia - 76ers by 8
Chicago at Toronto - Bulls by 9
Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 10
Washington at New Jersey - Nets by 5
Golden State at New Orleans - Warriors by 1
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Minnesota at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Detroit at Denver - Nuggets by 10
LA Lakers at Dallas - Mavericks by 1
Thursday
Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 7
LA Clippers at New Orleans - Clippers by 4
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 4
Boston at Milwaukee - Bucks by 4
Memphis at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Utah at Sacramento - Jazz by 2
Friday
Phoenix at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Cleveland at Orlando - Magic by 10
New York at Toronto - Knicks by 3
Milwaukee at Charlotte - Bucks by 9
New Jersey at Atlanta - Hawks by 11
Miami at Detroit - Heat by 10
Boston at Philadelphia - 76ers by 10
Minnesota at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 8
Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Portland at LA Lakers - Lakers by 5
Denver at Utah - Jazz by 1
Saturday
Memphis at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2
Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 7
Charlotte at New Jersey - Nets by 9
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 10
San Antonio at New Orleans - Spurs by 7
Toronto at Chicago - Bulls by 15
Dallas at Houston - Rockets by 2
Indiana at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Sacramento at Golden State - Warriors by 7
Sunday
Phoenix at Cleveland - Suns by 1
Denver at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 2
Prediction Results
NBA: 36-21 (.632) 266-146 overall (.646)
Upsets: 3-4 (.429) 44-34 overall (.564)
TW. Team (2 Weeks) (Overall) Rating (LW) (LLW)
1. Miami (4-2) (32-11) -8.68 (2) (1)
2. Chicago (7-2) (37-10) -8.46 (1) (2)
3. Philadelphia (3-5) (25-20) -6.69 (3) (4)
4. Oklahoma City (4-3) (33-11) -5.58 (4) (3)
5. San Antonio (4-3) (29-14) -4.92 (5) (5)
6. LA Lakers (5-2) (28-16) -3.34 (9) (6)
7. Indiana (2-6) (25-18) -2.99 (7) (9)
8. Memphis (2-3) (24-18) -2.95 (6) (10)
9. Orlando (5-2) (29-16) -2.87 (13) (12)
10. Atlanta (3-4) (25-19) -2.67 (12) (15)
11. New York (3-5) (21-24) -2.35 (21) (17)
12. LA Clippers (4-5) (25-18) -2.18 (10) (13)
13. Denver (5-3) (25-20) -2.15 (11) (11)
14. Portland (3-4) (21-23) -1.69 (8) (7)
15. Dallas (4-4) (26-20) -1.27 (14) (8)
16. Minnesota (3-4) (22-23) -0.77 (15) (14)
17. Milwaukee (6-1) (20-24) -0.47 (22) (22)
18. Utah (5-3) (22-22) -0.30 (16) (18)
19. Boston (4-4) (23-21) -0.13 (18) (19)
20. Houston (3-5) (24-21) 0.35 (17) (16)
21. Phoenix (6-2) (22-22) 0.64 (20) (20)
22. Golden State (4-5) (18-24) 0.76 (19) (21)
23. Toronto (4-5) (15-30) 3.71 (25) (24)
24. Cleveland (3-3) (16-25) 4.07 (26) (27)
25. New Orleans (2-6) (11-34) 4.74 (23) (23)
26. Detroit (4-2) (16-28) 4.82 (27) (28)
27. Sacramento (3-5) (15-29) 4.93 (24) (25)
28. New Jersey (3-5) (15-31) 5.57 (28) (26)
29. Washington (2-5) (10-33) 7.13 (29) (29)
30. Charlotte (3-6) (7-36) 11.39 (30) (30)
Miami may not have won as many games as Chicago over the last 2 weeks, and they even lost to the Bulls last week, but Miami took back the lead from Chicago anyway. Both of their losses were in very close road games against top 10 teams, and 3 of their wins were also against teams in the top 10, so the sheer difficulty of these last two weeks for the Heat is what has allowed them to maintain their standing at the top.
Chicago, meanwhile, also lost two games over that stretch, one to the Orlando Magic, who also beat Miami, but the other one came against Portland, who has been struggling severely over the last month. Even worse, both losses came on their home court, and the game against the Blazers wasn't even that close. Luckily for Chicago, they can point to the fact that Derrick Rose is out to explain the loss, but it's still a loss.
Philadelphia moved up to #3 this week despite losing more games than they won over the past couple weeks. The thing to notice is that three of those losses were expected to happen, because they came against Chicago or Miami, and all three losses were by single digits. They are definitely not on the same level as the Heat or Bulls, but they are better than most of the other teams out there.
Since Dwight Howard announced he would remain in Orlando, the Magic have caught on fire, beating Chicago, Indiana, and Miami, while dropping only one game over that span, which was a tough road game against the Spurs. Before that announcement, the Magic lost a game to Charlotte, one of the worst teams in league history, so it's easy to see what a difference it has already made.
New York has responded in a very positive manner to a change in coaching, winning three straight games under Mike Woodson after losing their last 6 under Mike D'Antoni. Each of the three wins came by at least 15 points, and that should continue when they play Toronto on Tuesday before they face their first real test under Woodson on Wednesday when they travel to Philadelphia.
Portland, meanwhile, hasn't won two straight games since late January, and they have fallen to 12th place in the Western Conference playoff picture as a result. They are also playing with a new coach, but the results are still the same, with surprising wins over good teams sandwiched between losses to bad teams.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Atlanta at Cleveland - Hawks by 4
Detroit at LA Clippers - Clippers by 10
Minnesota at Sacramento - Timberwolves by 3
Washington at Memphis - Grizzlies by 13
Orlando at Miami - Heat by 9
Houston at Phoenix - Suns by 3
Utah at LA Lakers - Lakers by 6
Portland at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Monday
Philadelphia at Charlotte - 76ers by 15
Boston at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Cleveland at New Jersey - Nets by 2
Chicago at Orlando - Bulls by 3
Dallas at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Minnesota at Golden State - Warriors by 2
Tuesday
LA Clippers at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Toronto at New York - Knicks by 9
Phoenix at Miami - Heat by 12
LA Lakers at Houston - Lakers by 1
Oklahoma City at Utah - Thunder by 2
Milwaukee at Portland - Trail Blazers by 4
Memphis at Sacramento - Grizzlies by 5
Wednesday
Phoenix at Orlando - Magic by 7
New York at Philadelphia - 76ers by 8
Chicago at Toronto - Bulls by 9
Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 10
Washington at New Jersey - Nets by 5
Golden State at New Orleans - Warriors by 1
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Minnesota at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Detroit at Denver - Nuggets by 10
LA Lakers at Dallas - Mavericks by 1
Thursday
Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 7
LA Clippers at New Orleans - Clippers by 4
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 4
Boston at Milwaukee - Bucks by 4
Memphis at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Utah at Sacramento - Jazz by 2
Friday
Phoenix at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Cleveland at Orlando - Magic by 10
New York at Toronto - Knicks by 3
Milwaukee at Charlotte - Bucks by 9
New Jersey at Atlanta - Hawks by 11
Miami at Detroit - Heat by 10
Boston at Philadelphia - 76ers by 10
Minnesota at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 8
Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Portland at LA Lakers - Lakers by 5
Denver at Utah - Jazz by 1
Saturday
Memphis at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2
Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 7
Charlotte at New Jersey - Nets by 9
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 10
San Antonio at New Orleans - Spurs by 7
Toronto at Chicago - Bulls by 15
Dallas at Houston - Rockets by 2
Indiana at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Sacramento at Golden State - Warriors by 7
Sunday
Phoenix at Cleveland - Suns by 1
Denver at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 2
Prediction Results
NBA: 36-21 (.632) 266-146 overall (.646)
Upsets: 3-4 (.429) 44-34 overall (.564)
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Top 100 NBA Players: #15
Clyde Drexler
(Kalb: #50, Simmons: #43, BBR: #23)
Clyde Drexler is considered by most experts to be a second-tier star, not an all-time superstar, but these are misconceptions due to the fact that he was never able to measure up to Michael Jordan when they faced each other in the 1992 NBA Finals, but is there anybody who could?
Drexler was a great all-around player, averaging over 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in 6 straight seasons during his prime, and during that same period he led the Trail Blazers to some of the best seasons in their history. In 1990, he led the Blazers from the third seed in the West to the NBA Finals, where they fell to the Detroit Pistons in 5 games. The next season Portland had the best regular season record, but lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Los Angeles Lakers.
In 1992, he again led the Blazers to the Finals, but they once again lost, this time to the Chicago Bulls. Many people remember Drexler for losing in those years, but he averaged over 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game during all three of those playoff campaigns and was by far the best player on his team, while the teams he lost to had great supporting stars.
Drexler suffered injuries during the next season, which caused people to forget about him as other teams began to dominate in the West, and when he became healthy again, Portland was no longer a championship contender, so he requested a trade and was sent to his hometown of Houston to be reunited with college teammate Hakeem Olajuwon. That season, the two superstars led the Rockets from the sixth seed in the West to their second straight NBA title, which finally earned Drexler his ring.
Many people try to discount Clyde's NBA championship by saying that he was no longer a star player when he won his title, and while he was no longer in his prime, he was definitely still a player capable of dominating. If you look at his stats in 1992, his best season, and 1995, when he won his title, you'll see that the dropoff isn't that big:
Drexler (1992) - 25.0 pts, 6.6 reb, 6.7 ast, 1.8 stl, .470 FG%, .337 3P%, .794 FT%
Drexler (1995) - 21.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.8 stl, .461 FG%, .360 3P%, .824 FT%
Drexler also played much bigger than his position. He is the all-time leader for offensive rebounds among guards, and is third all-time in overall rebounds and blocked shots for guards. The only guards with more rebounds are Jason Kidd and Oscar Robertson, and the only guards with more blocks are Ron Harper and Michael Jordan. He is also one of three players in history to reach 20,000 points, 6,000 rebounds, and 6,000 assists during his career, joining John Havlicek and Oscar Robertson.
Robertson reached his peak early, then dropped off slowly throughout the rest of his career, while Drexler built up to his peak for a few seasons, then maintained it for several seasons. He also had a rebirth in Houston for one season that was much better than anything Robertson did after he went to Milwaukee. Both won titles late in their careers as #2 guys to some of the all-time greatest centers, but Drexler led Portland to two Finals while he was the star, something the Big O never did. The two spent an equal amount of time as superstars, and each earned a ring, but the difference here is what Clyde did in the playoffs while he was still the man.
Monday, March 12, 2012
NCAA Tournament Odds and Predictions 2012
The field of 68 has finally been set, and Madness is about to begin. The tournament committee did a pretty good job of picking the teams and assigning seeds this year, but that doesn't mean that there aren't a few teams that were left out that shouldn't have been, or a few teams that should not have made the field, or were severely over- or under-seeded. We know there will be upsets, but where will they be? Here is my breakdown of all kinds of odds surrounding the tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been In
Final ranking according to my formula is in parentheses.
Miami (39)
Seton Hall (51)
Tennessee (52)
Middle Tennessee State (53)
Arizona (54)
Of these teams, the only one that I feel was really snubbed would be Miami. The others were all so close to the edge that leaving them out was understandable, although it would have been nice to have the best teams possible. Last season, 3 of my top 28 teams were left out of the field, so I'm impressed with the selections this year.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Final rankings according to my formula in parentheses, with tournament seed on the right.
Colorado State (70) 11
Southern Mississippi (68) 9
Xavier (65) 10
South Florida (64) 12
San Diego State (56) 6
I don't have as much of a problem with San Diego State getting in as I do with the others, although I do believe they should not have been seeded as high as they were, but I'll get to that in a minute. The other four should not be dancing, and I would have preferred to see any of the 5 teams above in their place.
Most Underseeded Teams
These are the teams that were not rewarded as they should have been, and as a result may have a tougher time advancing as far as they should in the tournament, although it could also work to their advantage if the higher seeds overlook them because of it.
1. Belmont
2. Memphis
3. Long Beach State
4. Florida
5. California
6. BYU
7. Wichita State
8. Saint Louis
9. Virginia
10. Iona
For the second straight season, Belmont is the most underrated team in the tournament. Last season, they were given a very difficult matchup against Wisconsin in the first round, which they lost, and this year it's Georgetown. Hopefully things turn out differently. There are two cases in which underrated teams are facing each other in the first round (BYU vs. Iona and Memphis vs. Saint Louis), which is sad, because two of those teams will not have the opportunity to prove people wrong.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams that got far too much credit for their body of work and could end up either advancing farther than they should due to easier schedules or falling prey to early upsets.
1. San Diego State
2. Saint Mary's
3. Southern Mississippi
4. Michigan
5. Temple
6. Notre Dame
7. Xavier
8. Colorado
9. Colorado State
You'll notice that four of these 9 are higher seeds in the Midwest Region, which means that there is a great potential for upsets in the first couple of rounds there. Note that Temple may be playing California in the round of 64, which faces an overrated team against an underrated team, and could be a surprise that many won't see coming.
Number of First Round Upsets
The number of upsets to expect in the first round this year is 10.9, up from my prediction of 10.2 last year. Last year there were actually 7, which fell very much on the low side, so there should be at least 8, although I would put the number between 9 and 13.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Here are the most likely first round upsets, ranked in order from most to least likely, along with the odds of each happening.
1. (10) Purdue over (7) Saint Mary's - (54.2%)
2. (11) North Carolina State over (6) San Diego State - (52.3%)
3. (14) Belmont over (3) Georgetown - (49.8%)
4. (9) Alabama over (8) Creighton - (49.2%)
5. (11) Texas over (6) Cincinnati - (48.9%)
6. (9) Connecticut over (8) Iowa State - (48.3%)
7. (12) California/South Florida over (5) Temple - (47.4%)
8. (10) West Virginia over (7) Gonzaga - (47.0%)
9. (10) Xavier over (7) Notre Dame - (46.4%)
10. (12) Long Beach State over (5) New Mexico - (43.2%)
11. (13) Ohio over (4) Michigan - (43.2%)
12. (10) Florida over (7) Virginia - (42.7%)
13. (9) Saint Louis over (8) Memphis - (41.3%)
The #7 seeds are all looking like potential upset victims, which is too bad, because the #2 seeds await the winners, and they are generally a pretty strong bunch this year, with Duke being the most likely to fall.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull off an Upset
(15) Lehigh over (2) Duke - 29.4%
(16) North Carolina-Asheville over (1) Syracuse - 15.9%
(15) Detroit over (2) Kansas - 14.7%
(16) Lamar/Vermont over (1) North Carolina - 13.0%
There have been very few #15 seeds that have won a tournament game, and no #16 has even beaten a #1, but this could be the year, with Lamar and NC-Asheville looking like the strongest #16's I have ever seen personally. Just one of these teams pulls off their upset and millions of people will be shrieking in horror about how their brackets are already busted. Don't put too many eggs in these baskets either way, but they're worth a look.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower-seeded teams that are most likely to reach the Sweet 16 and play into next week.
1. Belmont - (31.1%)
2. Texas - (23.1%)
3. Long Beach State - (21.5%)
4. North Carolina State - (20.2%)
5. Purdue - (19.6%)
6. Ohio - (19.4%)
7. South Dakota State - (19.1%)
8. Saint Bonaventure - (18.2%)
9. Xavier - (17.8%)
10. Alabama - (16.5%)
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
Last season I predicted 3.3, and the actual number turned out to be 4, so I hit that one as close as I could have. This season the number to watch for is 3.8, so between 3 and 5 would be most likely.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
Last year I picked 1.3 top seed to make the Final Four, but none ended up making it, so that one was just a little off, but I was pretty sure that 2 or fewer would be there. This year I'm picking 1.1, so it's even more likely that we'll see a top-seed-free Final Four this year than last.
Odds that a #1 Seed Wins the Tournament
37.2%
Those aren't very good odds, and they are much lower than last season's 44.2%.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
1. (1) Kentucky - 76.2%
2. (2) Ohio State - 74.5%
3. (1) North Carolina - 61.6%
4. (2) Kansas - 60.6%
5. (2) Missouri - 60.6%
6. (1) Michigan State - 58.8%
7. (1) Syracuse - 57.3%
8. (4) Wisconsin - 45.7%
9. (5) Wichita State - 45.0%
10. (2) Duke - 46.3%
All of the top 8 seeds are here, along with two lower-seeded W-schools, who are looking at teams far below their level through the first two rounds.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
1. (1) Kentucky - 37.2%
2. (2) Ohio State - 35.9%
3. (1) North Carolina - 29.2%
4. (1) Michigan State - 24.7%
5. (2) Kansas - 23.7%
6. (2) Missouri - 21.5%
7. (1) Syracuse - 18.4%
8. (5) Wichita State - 13.7%
9. (2) Duke - 12.2%
10. (4) Wisconsin - 12.0%
Very little difference here, except that Michigan State moves up a couple spots, meaning that if they can get through their second round opponent, their third shouldn't give them as much trouble and help them reach that showdown with Missouri.
Most Likely Champions
1. (1) Kentucky - 13.9%
2. (2) Ohio State - 13.8%
3. (1) North Carolina - 10.0%
4. (1) Michigan State - 8.0%
5. (2) Kansas - 7.1%
6. (2) Missouri - 6.0%
7. (1) Syracuse - 5.3%
8. (5) Wichita State - 3.8%
9. (4) Wisconsin - 2.9%
10. (2) Duke - 2.6%
Kentucky and Ohio State are almost exactly even in their odds of taking home a national title, with several other teams also looking strong. These teams have the highest chances of winning, but that doesn't mean everything, because last year the winner had just a 1.7% chance of winning at the start, which put them just slightly outside the top 10, so don't lock in too hard on the top choices.
Overall Bracket
This is how the bracket will turn out if the best team wins in each game. I don't believe the bracket will really turn out like this, or even close to this, but here it is.
First Round
(1) Kentucky
(8) Iowa State
(5) Wichita State
(4) Indiana
(6) UNLV
(3) Baylor
(7) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(8) Memphis
(5) New Mexico
(4) Louisville
(6) Murray State
(3) Marquette
(7) Florida
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(8) Kansas State
(5) Vanderbilt
(4) Wisconsin
(6) Cincinnati
(3) Florida State
(7) Gonzaga
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(8) Creighton
(5) Temple
(4) Michigan
(11) North Carolina State
(3) Georgetown
(10) Purdue
(2) Kansas
Sweet 16
(1) Kentucky
(5) Wichita State
(3) Baylor
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(5) New Mexico
(3) Marquette
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(4) Wisconsin
(3) Florida State
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(4) Michigan
(3) Georgetown
(2) Kansas
Elite Eight
(1) Kentucky
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(2) Kansas
Final Four
(1) Kentucky
(1) Michigan State
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
Championship
(1) Kentucky
(2) Ohio State
Champion
(2) Ohio State
The lack of upsets in this projected bracket is due to the committee doing what may have been their best job ever in seeding the teams for the tournament, but like I said before, there are likely to be around 11 upsets in the first round alone, and 3 double digit seeds in the Sweet 16, so the chalk outline above is just to show which teams are better and should win, but who will win is a totally different matter. I also do not believe we will see this many of the top seeds advancing deep into the tourney, so keep your options open and enjoy the madness.
Teams That Should Have Been In
Final ranking according to my formula is in parentheses.
Miami (39)
Seton Hall (51)
Tennessee (52)
Middle Tennessee State (53)
Arizona (54)
Of these teams, the only one that I feel was really snubbed would be Miami. The others were all so close to the edge that leaving them out was understandable, although it would have been nice to have the best teams possible. Last season, 3 of my top 28 teams were left out of the field, so I'm impressed with the selections this year.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Final rankings according to my formula in parentheses, with tournament seed on the right.
Colorado State (70) 11
Southern Mississippi (68) 9
Xavier (65) 10
South Florida (64) 12
San Diego State (56) 6
I don't have as much of a problem with San Diego State getting in as I do with the others, although I do believe they should not have been seeded as high as they were, but I'll get to that in a minute. The other four should not be dancing, and I would have preferred to see any of the 5 teams above in their place.
Most Underseeded Teams
These are the teams that were not rewarded as they should have been, and as a result may have a tougher time advancing as far as they should in the tournament, although it could also work to their advantage if the higher seeds overlook them because of it.
1. Belmont
2. Memphis
3. Long Beach State
4. Florida
5. California
6. BYU
7. Wichita State
8. Saint Louis
9. Virginia
10. Iona
For the second straight season, Belmont is the most underrated team in the tournament. Last season, they were given a very difficult matchup against Wisconsin in the first round, which they lost, and this year it's Georgetown. Hopefully things turn out differently. There are two cases in which underrated teams are facing each other in the first round (BYU vs. Iona and Memphis vs. Saint Louis), which is sad, because two of those teams will not have the opportunity to prove people wrong.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams that got far too much credit for their body of work and could end up either advancing farther than they should due to easier schedules or falling prey to early upsets.
1. San Diego State
2. Saint Mary's
3. Southern Mississippi
4. Michigan
5. Temple
6. Notre Dame
7. Xavier
8. Colorado
9. Colorado State
You'll notice that four of these 9 are higher seeds in the Midwest Region, which means that there is a great potential for upsets in the first couple of rounds there. Note that Temple may be playing California in the round of 64, which faces an overrated team against an underrated team, and could be a surprise that many won't see coming.
Number of First Round Upsets
The number of upsets to expect in the first round this year is 10.9, up from my prediction of 10.2 last year. Last year there were actually 7, which fell very much on the low side, so there should be at least 8, although I would put the number between 9 and 13.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Here are the most likely first round upsets, ranked in order from most to least likely, along with the odds of each happening.
1. (10) Purdue over (7) Saint Mary's - (54.2%)
2. (11) North Carolina State over (6) San Diego State - (52.3%)
3. (14) Belmont over (3) Georgetown - (49.8%)
4. (9) Alabama over (8) Creighton - (49.2%)
5. (11) Texas over (6) Cincinnati - (48.9%)
6. (9) Connecticut over (8) Iowa State - (48.3%)
7. (12) California/South Florida over (5) Temple - (47.4%)
8. (10) West Virginia over (7) Gonzaga - (47.0%)
9. (10) Xavier over (7) Notre Dame - (46.4%)
10. (12) Long Beach State over (5) New Mexico - (43.2%)
11. (13) Ohio over (4) Michigan - (43.2%)
12. (10) Florida over (7) Virginia - (42.7%)
13. (9) Saint Louis over (8) Memphis - (41.3%)
The #7 seeds are all looking like potential upset victims, which is too bad, because the #2 seeds await the winners, and they are generally a pretty strong bunch this year, with Duke being the most likely to fall.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull off an Upset
(15) Lehigh over (2) Duke - 29.4%
(16) North Carolina-Asheville over (1) Syracuse - 15.9%
(15) Detroit over (2) Kansas - 14.7%
(16) Lamar/Vermont over (1) North Carolina - 13.0%
There have been very few #15 seeds that have won a tournament game, and no #16 has even beaten a #1, but this could be the year, with Lamar and NC-Asheville looking like the strongest #16's I have ever seen personally. Just one of these teams pulls off their upset and millions of people will be shrieking in horror about how their brackets are already busted. Don't put too many eggs in these baskets either way, but they're worth a look.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower-seeded teams that are most likely to reach the Sweet 16 and play into next week.
1. Belmont - (31.1%)
2. Texas - (23.1%)
3. Long Beach State - (21.5%)
4. North Carolina State - (20.2%)
5. Purdue - (19.6%)
6. Ohio - (19.4%)
7. South Dakota State - (19.1%)
8. Saint Bonaventure - (18.2%)
9. Xavier - (17.8%)
10. Alabama - (16.5%)
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
Last season I predicted 3.3, and the actual number turned out to be 4, so I hit that one as close as I could have. This season the number to watch for is 3.8, so between 3 and 5 would be most likely.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
Last year I picked 1.3 top seed to make the Final Four, but none ended up making it, so that one was just a little off, but I was pretty sure that 2 or fewer would be there. This year I'm picking 1.1, so it's even more likely that we'll see a top-seed-free Final Four this year than last.
Odds that a #1 Seed Wins the Tournament
37.2%
Those aren't very good odds, and they are much lower than last season's 44.2%.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
1. (1) Kentucky - 76.2%
2. (2) Ohio State - 74.5%
3. (1) North Carolina - 61.6%
4. (2) Kansas - 60.6%
5. (2) Missouri - 60.6%
6. (1) Michigan State - 58.8%
7. (1) Syracuse - 57.3%
8. (4) Wisconsin - 45.7%
9. (5) Wichita State - 45.0%
10. (2) Duke - 46.3%
All of the top 8 seeds are here, along with two lower-seeded W-schools, who are looking at teams far below their level through the first two rounds.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
1. (1) Kentucky - 37.2%
2. (2) Ohio State - 35.9%
3. (1) North Carolina - 29.2%
4. (1) Michigan State - 24.7%
5. (2) Kansas - 23.7%
6. (2) Missouri - 21.5%
7. (1) Syracuse - 18.4%
8. (5) Wichita State - 13.7%
9. (2) Duke - 12.2%
10. (4) Wisconsin - 12.0%
Very little difference here, except that Michigan State moves up a couple spots, meaning that if they can get through their second round opponent, their third shouldn't give them as much trouble and help them reach that showdown with Missouri.
Most Likely Champions
1. (1) Kentucky - 13.9%
2. (2) Ohio State - 13.8%
3. (1) North Carolina - 10.0%
4. (1) Michigan State - 8.0%
5. (2) Kansas - 7.1%
6. (2) Missouri - 6.0%
7. (1) Syracuse - 5.3%
8. (5) Wichita State - 3.8%
9. (4) Wisconsin - 2.9%
10. (2) Duke - 2.6%
Kentucky and Ohio State are almost exactly even in their odds of taking home a national title, with several other teams also looking strong. These teams have the highest chances of winning, but that doesn't mean everything, because last year the winner had just a 1.7% chance of winning at the start, which put them just slightly outside the top 10, so don't lock in too hard on the top choices.
Overall Bracket
This is how the bracket will turn out if the best team wins in each game. I don't believe the bracket will really turn out like this, or even close to this, but here it is.
First Round
(1) Kentucky
(8) Iowa State
(5) Wichita State
(4) Indiana
(6) UNLV
(3) Baylor
(7) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(8) Memphis
(5) New Mexico
(4) Louisville
(6) Murray State
(3) Marquette
(7) Florida
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(8) Kansas State
(5) Vanderbilt
(4) Wisconsin
(6) Cincinnati
(3) Florida State
(7) Gonzaga
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(8) Creighton
(5) Temple
(4) Michigan
(11) North Carolina State
(3) Georgetown
(10) Purdue
(2) Kansas
Sweet 16
(1) Kentucky
(5) Wichita State
(3) Baylor
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(5) New Mexico
(3) Marquette
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(4) Wisconsin
(3) Florida State
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(4) Michigan
(3) Georgetown
(2) Kansas
Elite Eight
(1) Kentucky
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(2) Kansas
Final Four
(1) Kentucky
(1) Michigan State
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
Championship
(1) Kentucky
(2) Ohio State
Champion
(2) Ohio State
The lack of upsets in this projected bracket is due to the committee doing what may have been their best job ever in seeding the teams for the tournament, but like I said before, there are likely to be around 11 upsets in the first round alone, and 3 double digit seeds in the Sweet 16, so the chalk outline above is just to show which teams are better and should win, but who will win is a totally different matter. I also do not believe we will see this many of the top seeds advancing deep into the tourney, so keep your options open and enjoy the madness.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
NBA MVP Rankings - 10 Mar
There are 7 active players in the NBA who have a Maurice Podoloff Trophy at home for winning an MVP award, and three of those players are in the running to add to their collection this season. Two of them happen to be leading the two teams with the league's best records so far, which is a major component in determining the winner in most cases, so they should remain near the top of the standings for a while, barring injuries. Here are the latest top 10, along with my top five Sixth Man candidates, with players in red dropping since last time and players in green rising.
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 27.7 pts, 8.4 reb, 6.7 ast, 1.8 stl, .555 FG%, .390 3P%, .769 FT%
LeBron James is currently posting numbers higher than his already impressive career averages in every category but assists, which is very close, and Miami is one of three favorites to win this season's NBA title, so how can he not be the MVP? Add in his performance since the All-Star Break, where he has put in 30 points per game while grabbing 11 rebounds and shooting over 60% from the field, and you're looking at a player who has no equal for his size in any era.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.0 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.4 stl, .499 FG%, .358 3P%, .836 FT%
Durant is also putting up MVP-caliber numbers this season, and he has his team atop the Western Conference, where they have been for almost the entire season. His shooting percentage has dipped slightly lately, but he is still putting up the scoring numbers, and it's been an entire month since he failed to reach 20 points in a game.
3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 23.7 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.6 ast, 1.8 stl, .466 FG%, .316 3P%, .817 FT%
Westbrook, who only reached double digits in assists once before the All-Star Break this season, has already done it twice since midseason, both of which were victories for the Thunder. But he wasn't just distributing the ball in those games, he was also putting it in the hoop themselves, averaging 30 points between the two wins for Oklahoma City.
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.9 pts, 5.7 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.3 stl, .434 FG%, .833 FT%
Kobe has been scoring a little more since the break, averaging 31 points per game and leading the Lakers to victories every time he reached that mark. One reason for that increase could be his improved free throw shooting. He has made 20 in a row right now, and he has the Lakers in the running for another Pacific Division title and home court in the first round.
5. Dwight Howard - ORL - 20.9 pts, 15.0 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .567 FG%, .490 FT%
Last week, Dwight Howard had two separate games in which he eclipsed the 30 point plateau, and it was even more impressive because he only took 20 shots in each of those two games. His shooting percentage between those games was an incredible 75%, so we can forgive him for losing to the Thunder in one of those games.
6. Blake Griffin - LAC - 21.2 pts, 11.2 reb, 2.9 ast, .529 FG%, .554 FT%
Griffin came into March more like a lamb than a lion, averaging only 15 points and 9 rebounds through the first three games, but he did redeem himself somewhat in the past two, putting up a 26-12 and a 28-17, although those numbers were somewhat tainted by the fact that the Clippers lost both, one to the lowly New Jersey Nets.
7. Kevin Love - MIN - 25.5 pts, 13.8 reb, 2.0 ast, .448 FG%, .368 3P%, .831 FT%
Minnesota has won 4 of 7 since the All-Star Break, with two of those losses coming to the Los Angeles Lakers. The common denominator in those two losses? Kevin Love missed both games with back problems. Put Love in the lineup for yesterday's game, and the Timberwolves might not have lost, which would have put Minnesota on the inside of the playoff picture for the first time in years.
8. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.4 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.7 stl, .501 FG%, .804 FT%
Wade has been struggling with an ankle injury lately, which could be part of the reason that Miami has lost two games this month, but he has been playing through the pain, and he's still putting up 22 points per game. He hasn't been the same player he was last season, when there was some debate over which player was the best on the Heat, but if he gets healthy by the playoffs, the East better watch out.
9. Derrick Rose - CHI - 22.5 pts, 3.4 reb, 7.8 ast, .449 FG%, .317 3P%, .821 FT%
It's no coincidence that Chicago started an 8-game winning streak in the first game after Derrick Rose returned from injury, and it's also no coincidence that the streak ended after Rose had his worst shooting night since December, hitting only 6 of 22 shots against the Magic. He has, however, helped the Bulls regain the top record in the league, and he is making a strong case for MVP again despite having missed 10 games already this year.
10. Tony Parker - SAS - 19.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 7.9 ast, 1.1 stl, .465 FG%, .799 FT%
Parker improved steadily after the All-Star Break, scoring 11, 15, 25, and 32 in consecutive games, before sitting out last night's loss to the Clippers with a thigh injury. Parker has returned the Spurs to prominence without the need for rebuilding by taking over leadership of the team, which is now solidly in second place in the West and could cause trouble for the top-ranked Thunder in the playoffs.
Dropped Out
Chris Bosh - MIA
LaMarcus Aldridge - POR
Honorable Mention
Pau Gasol - LAL
Marc Gasol - MEM
Chris Paul - LAC
Rudy Gay - MEM
Carlos Boozer - CHI
James Harden - OKC
Chris Bosh - MIA
Sixth Man of the Year
1. James Harden - OKC - 16.8 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.5 ast, .479 FG%, .361 3P%, .853 FT%
Harden scored a season-high 30 points against the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday as he helped lead the Thunder back from one of their largest deficits of the entire season to a comfortable win. There is no better bench player in the league this season, and he is guaranteed to be a finalist because he's only started twice so far this season.
2. Lou Williams - PHI - 15.9 pts, 2.3 reb, 3.7 ast, .407 FG%, .369 3P%, .816 FT%
Williams has been very consistent over the past 8 games, putting up double digits in scoring in 7 of those games. In the other game, against Chicago, he went 0 for 7 from the field and ended up with only 6 points as the 76ers lost a close one against the top-ranked Bulls, which is a time when they could have really used his regular contributions off the bench.
3. Thaddeus Young - PHI - 13.4 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.1 stl, .499 FG%, .763 FT%
Young has been the 76ers best bench player lately, putting up at least 20 points off the bench 3 times in the last month, and he's been shooting over 80% from the free throw line over that stretch as well, which has earned him more playing time. He's now getting over 30 minutes per game, even without starting any games.
4. Nicolas Batum - POR - 14.1 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.1 blk, 1.0 stl, .460 FG%, .414 3P%, .835 FT%
Batum's 29 points against the Timberwolves last week weren't enough as Portland continued to slump by losing at home to Minnesota. Portland has lost 11 of their last 16 games, which is the main reason LaMarcus Aldridge is no longer an MVP candidate, but there's nothing that says you have to play for a winning team to be named Sixth Man of the Year.
5. Kemba Walker - CHA - 12.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.9 ast, 1.1 stl, .372 FG%, .323 3P%, .805 FT%
One year removed from leading the Connecticut Huskies to the NCAA championship, Walker is in a very different situation in the NBA, playing for the 4-win Charlotte Bobcats, but he has been a very solid player at the higher level, despite having no other player worth guarding on his team.
Dropping Out
Andre Miller - DEN
Jason Terry - DAL
Honorable Mention
Jason Terry - DAL
Al Harrington - DEN
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 27.7 pts, 8.4 reb, 6.7 ast, 1.8 stl, .555 FG%, .390 3P%, .769 FT%
LeBron James is currently posting numbers higher than his already impressive career averages in every category but assists, which is very close, and Miami is one of three favorites to win this season's NBA title, so how can he not be the MVP? Add in his performance since the All-Star Break, where he has put in 30 points per game while grabbing 11 rebounds and shooting over 60% from the field, and you're looking at a player who has no equal for his size in any era.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.0 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.4 stl, .499 FG%, .358 3P%, .836 FT%
Durant is also putting up MVP-caliber numbers this season, and he has his team atop the Western Conference, where they have been for almost the entire season. His shooting percentage has dipped slightly lately, but he is still putting up the scoring numbers, and it's been an entire month since he failed to reach 20 points in a game.
3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 23.7 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.6 ast, 1.8 stl, .466 FG%, .316 3P%, .817 FT%
Westbrook, who only reached double digits in assists once before the All-Star Break this season, has already done it twice since midseason, both of which were victories for the Thunder. But he wasn't just distributing the ball in those games, he was also putting it in the hoop themselves, averaging 30 points between the two wins for Oklahoma City.
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.9 pts, 5.7 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.3 stl, .434 FG%, .833 FT%
Kobe has been scoring a little more since the break, averaging 31 points per game and leading the Lakers to victories every time he reached that mark. One reason for that increase could be his improved free throw shooting. He has made 20 in a row right now, and he has the Lakers in the running for another Pacific Division title and home court in the first round.
5. Dwight Howard - ORL - 20.9 pts, 15.0 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .567 FG%, .490 FT%
Last week, Dwight Howard had two separate games in which he eclipsed the 30 point plateau, and it was even more impressive because he only took 20 shots in each of those two games. His shooting percentage between those games was an incredible 75%, so we can forgive him for losing to the Thunder in one of those games.
6. Blake Griffin - LAC - 21.2 pts, 11.2 reb, 2.9 ast, .529 FG%, .554 FT%
Griffin came into March more like a lamb than a lion, averaging only 15 points and 9 rebounds through the first three games, but he did redeem himself somewhat in the past two, putting up a 26-12 and a 28-17, although those numbers were somewhat tainted by the fact that the Clippers lost both, one to the lowly New Jersey Nets.
7. Kevin Love - MIN - 25.5 pts, 13.8 reb, 2.0 ast, .448 FG%, .368 3P%, .831 FT%
Minnesota has won 4 of 7 since the All-Star Break, with two of those losses coming to the Los Angeles Lakers. The common denominator in those two losses? Kevin Love missed both games with back problems. Put Love in the lineup for yesterday's game, and the Timberwolves might not have lost, which would have put Minnesota on the inside of the playoff picture for the first time in years.
8. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.4 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.7 stl, .501 FG%, .804 FT%
Wade has been struggling with an ankle injury lately, which could be part of the reason that Miami has lost two games this month, but he has been playing through the pain, and he's still putting up 22 points per game. He hasn't been the same player he was last season, when there was some debate over which player was the best on the Heat, but if he gets healthy by the playoffs, the East better watch out.
9. Derrick Rose - CHI - 22.5 pts, 3.4 reb, 7.8 ast, .449 FG%, .317 3P%, .821 FT%
It's no coincidence that Chicago started an 8-game winning streak in the first game after Derrick Rose returned from injury, and it's also no coincidence that the streak ended after Rose had his worst shooting night since December, hitting only 6 of 22 shots against the Magic. He has, however, helped the Bulls regain the top record in the league, and he is making a strong case for MVP again despite having missed 10 games already this year.
10. Tony Parker - SAS - 19.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 7.9 ast, 1.1 stl, .465 FG%, .799 FT%
Parker improved steadily after the All-Star Break, scoring 11, 15, 25, and 32 in consecutive games, before sitting out last night's loss to the Clippers with a thigh injury. Parker has returned the Spurs to prominence without the need for rebuilding by taking over leadership of the team, which is now solidly in second place in the West and could cause trouble for the top-ranked Thunder in the playoffs.
Dropped Out
Chris Bosh - MIA
LaMarcus Aldridge - POR
Honorable Mention
Pau Gasol - LAL
Marc Gasol - MEM
Chris Paul - LAC
Rudy Gay - MEM
Carlos Boozer - CHI
James Harden - OKC
Chris Bosh - MIA
Sixth Man of the Year
1. James Harden - OKC - 16.8 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.5 ast, .479 FG%, .361 3P%, .853 FT%
Harden scored a season-high 30 points against the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday as he helped lead the Thunder back from one of their largest deficits of the entire season to a comfortable win. There is no better bench player in the league this season, and he is guaranteed to be a finalist because he's only started twice so far this season.
2. Lou Williams - PHI - 15.9 pts, 2.3 reb, 3.7 ast, .407 FG%, .369 3P%, .816 FT%
Williams has been very consistent over the past 8 games, putting up double digits in scoring in 7 of those games. In the other game, against Chicago, he went 0 for 7 from the field and ended up with only 6 points as the 76ers lost a close one against the top-ranked Bulls, which is a time when they could have really used his regular contributions off the bench.
3. Thaddeus Young - PHI - 13.4 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.1 stl, .499 FG%, .763 FT%
Young has been the 76ers best bench player lately, putting up at least 20 points off the bench 3 times in the last month, and he's been shooting over 80% from the free throw line over that stretch as well, which has earned him more playing time. He's now getting over 30 minutes per game, even without starting any games.
4. Nicolas Batum - POR - 14.1 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.1 blk, 1.0 stl, .460 FG%, .414 3P%, .835 FT%
Batum's 29 points against the Timberwolves last week weren't enough as Portland continued to slump by losing at home to Minnesota. Portland has lost 11 of their last 16 games, which is the main reason LaMarcus Aldridge is no longer an MVP candidate, but there's nothing that says you have to play for a winning team to be named Sixth Man of the Year.
5. Kemba Walker - CHA - 12.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.9 ast, 1.1 stl, .372 FG%, .323 3P%, .805 FT%
One year removed from leading the Connecticut Huskies to the NCAA championship, Walker is in a very different situation in the NBA, playing for the 4-win Charlotte Bobcats, but he has been a very solid player at the higher level, despite having no other player worth guarding on his team.
Dropping Out
Andre Miller - DEN
Jason Terry - DAL
Honorable Mention
Jason Terry - DAL
Al Harrington - DEN
Friday, March 9, 2012
Top 100 NBA Players: #16
Oscar Robertson
I know what you're thinking. How can Oscar Robertson be ranked below the top 10? He's the only person in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season, and he nearly did it four other times. Let me explain the factors that dropped the Big O from his usual spot in the top 10 of any other overall ranking you've probably ever seen.
First of all, let's consider his triple-double season. While I don't want to take anything away from him for such an amazing accomplishment, the fact is that his performance was a little inflated. The 1960's in general were an era of over-the-top stats, and 1962 in particular was the worst. That season, besides Oscar's huge numbers, we also saw Walt Bellamy win the Rookie of the Year with 31.6 points and 19.0 rebounds per game, and some guy named Wilt averaged over 50 points and 25 rebounds per game. It wasn't just a collision of great players that caused this unmatched season, it was a much higher pace of play which jacked up all of the statistics.
When you compare 1962 with 2012, you'll notice some major differences. The scoring average 50 years ago was 25% higher than it is today, the rebounding average was 69% higher, and the assist average was 16% higher, even in an era where they weren't given out as freely. The top 4 scoring seasons in history were Oscar's four best years, and the top 13 single season rebounding averages were all recorded by players in the 1960's. If you were to take Oscar's stats from that season and make them correspond to today's pace, here's the difference you would see:
Robertson 1962 (actual) - 30.8 pts, 12.5 reb, 11.4 ast
Robertson 1962 (adjusted) - 24.6 pts, 7.4 reb, 9.8 ast
Like I said, I am not saying that Oscar was not an incredible player, because even those numbers would put him among the top 3 players in the league today. Not only that, but I also believe that his skills would translate well to today's game, so he likely would be a potential MVP today if he weren't over 70 years old.
Now that his amazing stats have been somewhat put into perspective, let's look at another major determiner of greatness - winning when it matters. While Robertson was at his peak in Cincinnati, he led them as far as the Conference Finals twice, and failed to make the playoffs in 4 other seasons. When he finally did win a championship, with Milwaukee in 1971, it was with Kareem leading the way and Oscar setting him up. He did make a return trip to the Finals in his final season, 1974, where they lost to the Celtics in 7 games.
One final note about Robertson. He played in an era that was very different from today. There were numerous times during his college and pro career when he wasn't allowed to stay in the same hotels or eat at the same restaurants as teammates because of the color of his skin. The fact that he excelled amidst the turmoil of segregation is a testament to his greatness. It's too bad that he wasn't able to play in a day where he was treated the same way off the court as he was on the court.
Oscar Robertson was never the best player on an NBA champion or runner-up, while Dirk Nowitzki has achieved both in his career. Dirk has been able to maintain a high level of play for longer than Oscar, but Robertson's greatness in his first five seasons are still enough to put him ahead of the big German on the all-time list.
Monday, March 5, 2012
College Basketball Rankings - 5 Mar
The regular season has ended (unless you're in the Ivy League), and most conferences are holding their tournaments this week to determine which team will earn an automatic bid to March Madness. Due to the nature of teams advancing in conference tournaments, most of my predictions will be added to this post later in the week, so check back often to see my picks for all of the important games. These updated rankings include all games through last night, and gaps between groups of teams represent different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Kentucky (2-0) (30-1) -20.35 (1)
2. (3) North Carolina (2-0) (27-4) -19.56 (4)
3. (4) Ohio State (2-0) (25-6) -17.92 (7)
4. (5) Kansas (2-0) (26-5) -17.55 (3)
5. (2) Michigan State (0-2) (24-7) -17.35 (8)
6. (6) Syracuse (1-0) (30-1) -16.32 (2)
7. (7) Wichita State (1-1) (27-5) -15.81 (16)
8. (9) Missouri (2-0) (27-4) -15.05 (5)
9. (14) Memphis (2-0) (23-8) -14.38 (28)
10. (8) Wisconsin (2-0) (23-8) -14.32 (12)
11. (10) Duke (1-1) (26-5) -13.68 (6)
12. (11) Marquette (1-1) (25-6) -13.08 (9)
13. (18) Saint Louis (2-0) (24-6) -12.53 (34)
14. (17) New Mexico (2-0) (24-6) -12.51 (27)
15. (13) Indiana (2-0) (24-7) -12.49 (15)
16. (16) Georgetown (1-1) (22-7) -12.30 (14)
17. (12) Belmont (3-0) (27-7) -12.19 (NR)
18. (15) Florida (0-2) (22-9) -11.98 (19)
19. (19) Baylor (1-1) (25-6) -11.89 (11)
20. (20) Vanderbilt (1-1) (21-10) -11.32 (NR)
21. (NR) Kansas State (2-0) (21-9) -11.00 (32)
22. (22) California (0-1) (23-8) -10.59 (NR)
23. (NR) Michigan (2-0) (23-8) -10.42 (13)
24. (25) UNLV (1-1) (25-7) -10.19 (20)
25. (NR) Creighton (3-0) (28-5) -10.13 (22)
Dropped Out
(24) Virginia (1-1) (22-8) -9.90 (31)
(21) Louisville (0-2) (22-9) -9.71 (26)
(23) Alabama (1-1) (20-10) -9.42 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 5
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 3
Big East - 3
ACC - 2
MVC - 2
MWC - 2
CUSA - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Michigan State entered the week with a chance to take the top seed in the Big Ten, but after being blown out in Bloomington, they lost at home to Ohio State on a last-second shot, which created a three-way tie atop the standings and may have cost them a shot at a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Luckily, the Spartans only have two questionable losses on their resume and 9 strong wins, so they will have a very good seed in March.
Memphis finished off the season strong against Tulsa, clinching the top seed in Conference USA and moving them into the top 10 in my rankings, even though they have yet to crack the national top 25. The Tigers also have only two bad losses, but their are only 5 wins they can claim against potential tournament teams.
Saint Louis may not have taken the regular season Atlantic 10 title, but they should be a major player in the conference tournament, and even though their best wins of the season were against Xavier, their lack of bad losses (other than that surprise by Rhode Island last week) should keep them on the right side of the bubble.
Belmont secured their spot in the NCAA's by winning their conference tournament yet again, but they didn't do it in their usual dominant fashion. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bruins make some noise in March, but it all depends on who they are matched up against in the first round.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Monday
(25) Gonzaga vs. (18) Saint Mary's - Bulldogs by 3
Wednesday
Pittsburgh vs. (14) Georgetown - Hoyas by 8
Thursday
Air Force vs. New Mexico - Lobos by 15
Stanford vs. California - Golden Bears by 4
UTEP vs. Memphis - Tigers by 14
Connecticut vs. (2) Syracuse - Orange by 8
Texas A&M vs. (3) Kansas - Jayhawks by 17
Oklahoma State vs. (5) Missouri - Tigers by 13
Louisville vs. (9) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 3
Kansas State vs. (11) Baylor - Bears by 1
(14) Georgetown vs. Cincinnati - Hoyas by 4
Penn State vs. (15) Indiana - Hoosiers by 12
Wyoming at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 11
Boise State vs. (21) San Diego State - Aztecs by 6
South Florida vs. (23) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 2
Friday
LSU vs. (1) Kentucky - Wildcats by 12
Cincinnati vs. (2) Syracuse - Orange by 8
(11) Baylor vs. (3) Kansas - Jayhawks by 6
Maryland vs. (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 20
Texas vs. (5) Missouri - Tigers by 6
Virginia Tech vs. (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 9
Purdue vs. (7) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 2
Iowa vs. (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 15
(15) Indiana vs. (12) Wisconsin - Hoosiers by 4
Minnesota vs. (13) Michigan - Wolverines by 6
Miami vs. (17) Florida State - Seminoles by 2
Alabama vs. (19) Florida - Gators by 3
New Mexico at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 3
Colorado State vs. (21) San Diego State - Aztecs by 2
Louisville vs. (23) Notre Dame - Cardinals by 2
Massachusetts vs. (24) Temple - Owls by 6
LaSalle vs. Saint Louis - Billikens by 6
UCF at Memphis - Tigers by 17
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
Colorado vs. California - Golden Bears by 8
Saturday
(19) Florida vs. (1) Kentucky - Wildcats by 8
North Carolina State vs. (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 12
(11) Baylor vs. (5) Missouri - Tigers by 3
(17) Florida State vs. (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 4
(7) Ohio State vs. (13) Michigan - Buckeyes by 8
(12) Wisconsin vs. (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 3
New Mexico vs. (21) San Diego State - Lobos by 6
Marshall at Memphis - Tigers by 15
Xavier vs. Saint Louis - Billikens by 7
Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
Sunday
Vanderbilt vs. (1) Kentucky - Wildcats by 8
(17) Florida State vs. (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9
(7) Ohio State vs. (8) Michigan State - Buckeyes by 2
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 43-10 (.811) 519-134 overall (.795)
Upsets: 6-4 (.600) 52-37 overall (.584)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Kentucky (2-0) (30-1) -20.35 (1)
2. (3) North Carolina (2-0) (27-4) -19.56 (4)
3. (4) Ohio State (2-0) (25-6) -17.92 (7)
4. (5) Kansas (2-0) (26-5) -17.55 (3)
5. (2) Michigan State (0-2) (24-7) -17.35 (8)
6. (6) Syracuse (1-0) (30-1) -16.32 (2)
7. (7) Wichita State (1-1) (27-5) -15.81 (16)
8. (9) Missouri (2-0) (27-4) -15.05 (5)
9. (14) Memphis (2-0) (23-8) -14.38 (28)
10. (8) Wisconsin (2-0) (23-8) -14.32 (12)
11. (10) Duke (1-1) (26-5) -13.68 (6)
12. (11) Marquette (1-1) (25-6) -13.08 (9)
13. (18) Saint Louis (2-0) (24-6) -12.53 (34)
14. (17) New Mexico (2-0) (24-6) -12.51 (27)
15. (13) Indiana (2-0) (24-7) -12.49 (15)
16. (16) Georgetown (1-1) (22-7) -12.30 (14)
17. (12) Belmont (3-0) (27-7) -12.19 (NR)
18. (15) Florida (0-2) (22-9) -11.98 (19)
19. (19) Baylor (1-1) (25-6) -11.89 (11)
20. (20) Vanderbilt (1-1) (21-10) -11.32 (NR)
21. (NR) Kansas State (2-0) (21-9) -11.00 (32)
22. (22) California (0-1) (23-8) -10.59 (NR)
23. (NR) Michigan (2-0) (23-8) -10.42 (13)
24. (25) UNLV (1-1) (25-7) -10.19 (20)
25. (NR) Creighton (3-0) (28-5) -10.13 (22)
Dropped Out
(24) Virginia (1-1) (22-8) -9.90 (31)
(21) Louisville (0-2) (22-9) -9.71 (26)
(23) Alabama (1-1) (20-10) -9.42 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 5
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 3
Big East - 3
ACC - 2
MVC - 2
MWC - 2
CUSA - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Michigan State entered the week with a chance to take the top seed in the Big Ten, but after being blown out in Bloomington, they lost at home to Ohio State on a last-second shot, which created a three-way tie atop the standings and may have cost them a shot at a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Luckily, the Spartans only have two questionable losses on their resume and 9 strong wins, so they will have a very good seed in March.
Memphis finished off the season strong against Tulsa, clinching the top seed in Conference USA and moving them into the top 10 in my rankings, even though they have yet to crack the national top 25. The Tigers also have only two bad losses, but their are only 5 wins they can claim against potential tournament teams.
Saint Louis may not have taken the regular season Atlantic 10 title, but they should be a major player in the conference tournament, and even though their best wins of the season were against Xavier, their lack of bad losses (other than that surprise by Rhode Island last week) should keep them on the right side of the bubble.
Belmont secured their spot in the NCAA's by winning their conference tournament yet again, but they didn't do it in their usual dominant fashion. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bruins make some noise in March, but it all depends on who they are matched up against in the first round.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Monday
(25) Gonzaga vs. (18) Saint Mary's - Bulldogs by 3
Wednesday
Pittsburgh vs. (14) Georgetown - Hoyas by 8
Thursday
Air Force vs. New Mexico - Lobos by 15
Stanford vs. California - Golden Bears by 4
UTEP vs. Memphis - Tigers by 14
Connecticut vs. (2) Syracuse - Orange by 8
Texas A&M vs. (3) Kansas - Jayhawks by 17
Oklahoma State vs. (5) Missouri - Tigers by 13
Louisville vs. (9) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 3
Kansas State vs. (11) Baylor - Bears by 1
(14) Georgetown vs. Cincinnati - Hoyas by 4
Penn State vs. (15) Indiana - Hoosiers by 12
Wyoming at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 11
Boise State vs. (21) San Diego State - Aztecs by 6
South Florida vs. (23) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 2
Friday
LSU vs. (1) Kentucky - Wildcats by 12
Cincinnati vs. (2) Syracuse - Orange by 8
(11) Baylor vs. (3) Kansas - Jayhawks by 6
Maryland vs. (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 20
Texas vs. (5) Missouri - Tigers by 6
Virginia Tech vs. (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 9
Purdue vs. (7) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 2
Iowa vs. (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 15
(15) Indiana vs. (12) Wisconsin - Hoosiers by 4
Minnesota vs. (13) Michigan - Wolverines by 6
Miami vs. (17) Florida State - Seminoles by 2
Alabama vs. (19) Florida - Gators by 3
New Mexico at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 3
Colorado State vs. (21) San Diego State - Aztecs by 2
Louisville vs. (23) Notre Dame - Cardinals by 2
Massachusetts vs. (24) Temple - Owls by 6
LaSalle vs. Saint Louis - Billikens by 6
UCF at Memphis - Tigers by 17
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
Colorado vs. California - Golden Bears by 8
Saturday
(19) Florida vs. (1) Kentucky - Wildcats by 8
North Carolina State vs. (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 12
(11) Baylor vs. (5) Missouri - Tigers by 3
(17) Florida State vs. (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 4
(7) Ohio State vs. (13) Michigan - Buckeyes by 8
(12) Wisconsin vs. (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 3
New Mexico vs. (21) San Diego State - Lobos by 6
Marshall at Memphis - Tigers by 15
Xavier vs. Saint Louis - Billikens by 7
Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
Sunday
Vanderbilt vs. (1) Kentucky - Wildcats by 8
(17) Florida State vs. (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9
(7) Ohio State vs. (8) Michigan State - Buckeyes by 2
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 43-10 (.811) 519-134 overall (.795)
Upsets: 6-4 (.600) 52-37 overall (.584)
Sunday, March 4, 2012
NBA Rankings - 4 Mar
Miami's 9-game winning streak finally came to an end, leaving open the possibility that another team could swoop in a claim the top spot in the rankings, but it wasn't to be this week. The Heat, despite losing two in a row for the first time since mid-January, have still done enough so far this season to warrant remaining in the #1 spot for now, but their clutch on it is far from safe, especially with hot teams like the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder closing in. Here are the latest rankings, including the first two games from today, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Miami (1-2) (28-9) -8.80 (1)
2. Chicago (3-0) (30-8) -7.16 (3)
3. Oklahoma City (2-1) (29-8) -6.74 (2)
4. Philadelphia (2-1) (22-15) -5.09 (7)
5. San Antonio (1-1) (25-11) -4.85 (5)
6. LA Lakers (3-0) (23-14) -3.83 (9)
7. Portland (0-3) (18-19) -3.35 (4)
8. Dallas (1-3) (22-16) -3.11 (6)
9. Indiana (2-0) (23-12) -3.09 (14)
10. Memphis (3-0) (22-15) -3.03 (12)
11. Denver (2-0) (20-17) -2.89 (11)
12. Orlando (2-1) (24-14) -2.55 (10)
13. LA Clippers (1-2) (21-13) -2.42 (8)
14. Minnesota (2-2) (19-19) -1.70 (16)
15. Atlanta (2-1) (22-15) -1.16 (15)
16. Houston (1-2) (21-16) -0.31 (13)
17. New York (1-1) (18-19) 0.30 (18)
18. Utah (2-2) (17-19) 0.50 (19)
19. Boston (4-0) (19-17) 1.14 (21)
20. Phoenix (2-0) (16-20) 1.72 (20)
21. Golden State (1-2) (14-19) 2.05 (17)
22. Milwaukee (1-3) (14-23) 2.61 (22)
23. New Orleans (1-3) (9-28) 3.48 (23)
24. Toronto (1-2) (11-25) 4.48 (27)
25. Sacramento (1-2) (12-24) 5.02 (25)
26. New Jersey (1-2) (12-26) 5.28 (28)
27. Cleveland (0-4) (13-22) 5.77 (24)
28. Detroit (1-2) (12-26) 6.39 (26)
29. Washington (1-2) (8-28) 7.63 (29)
30. Charlotte (0-2) (4-30) 13.91 (30)
Well-Rested
The Indiana Pacers have followed up their longest losing streak of the season with their longest winning streak, which is now sitting at 6 games. None of those wins came against a team that will make the playoffs, which could be a problem, since 8 of their next 9 games come against teams currently in position to make the playoffs. At least four of those wins came by double digits, which allowed them to give everybody a chance to get out on the court.
The Lakers have won three straight coming off the break, including a blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves and a very solid win over the Miami Heat, both of which were much more impressive than anything else they did in February. Their next two games are both against pretty bad teams, so they should be able to stretch out their streak before facing a few decent teams next week.
Rusty
Portland has come out very weak after closing the first half of the season on a high note against San Antonio, losing three straight, the last two in blowouts to Miami and Minnesota, in which they allowed LeBron to score 38 and Kevin Love to score 42. They face a hot Hornets team next before heading out on a 7-game road trip, which could severely damage their hopes for this season.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have lost all four times they have taken the court this week, including an improbable loss at Washington which has knocked them four full games out of the #8 spot in the East. They are still looking much better than last season thanks to probable Rookie of the Year Kyrie Irving, but they still need a little work to get back into the playoffs.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Golden State at Toronto - Raptors by 1
New Jersey at Charlotte - Nets by 6
LA Clippers at Houston - Rockets by 1
Chicago at Philadelphia - 76ers by 1
Sacramento at Phoenix - Suns by 4
Denver at San Antonio - Spurs by 5
Monday
Utah at Cleveland - Jazz by 2
Golden State at Washington - Warriors by 4
Orlando at Toronto - Magic by 4
Indiana at Chicago - Bulls by 7
Philadelphia at Milwaukee - 76ers by 5
LA Clippers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 2
Dallas at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Sacramento at Denver - Nuggets by 11
New Orleans at Portland - Trail Blazers by 10
Tuesday
Atlanta at Indiana - Pacers by 5
Orlando at Charlotte - Magic by 13
Houston at Boston - Celtics by 2
LA Lakers at Detroit - Lakers by 7
New Jersey at Miami - Heat by 17
New York at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Wednesday
Boston at Philadelphia - 76ers by 9
LA Lakers at Washington - Lakers by 8
Houston at Toronto - Rockets by 2
Utah at Charlotte - Jazz by 10
Atlanta at Miami - Heat by 11
Phoenix at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 12
Chicago at Milwaukee - Bulls by 7
Portland at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 2
LA Clippers at New Jersey - Clippers by 5
New York at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Cleveland at Denver - Nuggets by 12
New Orleans at Sacramento - Kings by 2
Memphis at Golden State - Grizzlies by 2
Thursday
Orlando at Chicago - Bulls by 8
Dallas at Phoenix - Mavericks by 2
Friday
Utah at Philadelphia - 76ers by 9
New Jersey at Charlotte - Nets by 6
Portland at Boston - Trail Blazers by 1
Atlanta at Detroit - Hawks by 5
LA Lakers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 1
Cleveland at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 16
New York at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
LA Clippers at San Antonio - Spurs by 6
New Orleans at Denver - Nuggets by 10
Dallas at Sacramento - Mavericks by 5
Saturday
Portland at Washington - Trail Blazers by 8
Toronto at Detroit - Pistons by 1
Indiana at Miami - Heat by 9
Utah at Chicago - Bulls by 11
New Orleans at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 8
Houston at New Jersey - Rockets by 3
Charlotte at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 24
Memphis at Phoenix - Grizzlies by 2
Dallas at Golden State - Mavericks by 2
Sunday
Philadelphia at New York - 76ers by 2
Boston at LA Lakers - Lakers by 8
Prediction Results
NBA: 29-16 (.644) 230-125 overall (.648)
Upsets: 4-3 (.571) 41-30 overall (.577)
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Miami (1-2) (28-9) -8.80 (1)
2. Chicago (3-0) (30-8) -7.16 (3)
3. Oklahoma City (2-1) (29-8) -6.74 (2)
4. Philadelphia (2-1) (22-15) -5.09 (7)
5. San Antonio (1-1) (25-11) -4.85 (5)
6. LA Lakers (3-0) (23-14) -3.83 (9)
7. Portland (0-3) (18-19) -3.35 (4)
8. Dallas (1-3) (22-16) -3.11 (6)
9. Indiana (2-0) (23-12) -3.09 (14)
10. Memphis (3-0) (22-15) -3.03 (12)
11. Denver (2-0) (20-17) -2.89 (11)
12. Orlando (2-1) (24-14) -2.55 (10)
13. LA Clippers (1-2) (21-13) -2.42 (8)
14. Minnesota (2-2) (19-19) -1.70 (16)
15. Atlanta (2-1) (22-15) -1.16 (15)
16. Houston (1-2) (21-16) -0.31 (13)
17. New York (1-1) (18-19) 0.30 (18)
18. Utah (2-2) (17-19) 0.50 (19)
19. Boston (4-0) (19-17) 1.14 (21)
20. Phoenix (2-0) (16-20) 1.72 (20)
21. Golden State (1-2) (14-19) 2.05 (17)
22. Milwaukee (1-3) (14-23) 2.61 (22)
23. New Orleans (1-3) (9-28) 3.48 (23)
24. Toronto (1-2) (11-25) 4.48 (27)
25. Sacramento (1-2) (12-24) 5.02 (25)
26. New Jersey (1-2) (12-26) 5.28 (28)
27. Cleveland (0-4) (13-22) 5.77 (24)
28. Detroit (1-2) (12-26) 6.39 (26)
29. Washington (1-2) (8-28) 7.63 (29)
30. Charlotte (0-2) (4-30) 13.91 (30)
Well-Rested
The Indiana Pacers have followed up their longest losing streak of the season with their longest winning streak, which is now sitting at 6 games. None of those wins came against a team that will make the playoffs, which could be a problem, since 8 of their next 9 games come against teams currently in position to make the playoffs. At least four of those wins came by double digits, which allowed them to give everybody a chance to get out on the court.
The Lakers have won three straight coming off the break, including a blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves and a very solid win over the Miami Heat, both of which were much more impressive than anything else they did in February. Their next two games are both against pretty bad teams, so they should be able to stretch out their streak before facing a few decent teams next week.
Rusty
Portland has come out very weak after closing the first half of the season on a high note against San Antonio, losing three straight, the last two in blowouts to Miami and Minnesota, in which they allowed LeBron to score 38 and Kevin Love to score 42. They face a hot Hornets team next before heading out on a 7-game road trip, which could severely damage their hopes for this season.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have lost all four times they have taken the court this week, including an improbable loss at Washington which has knocked them four full games out of the #8 spot in the East. They are still looking much better than last season thanks to probable Rookie of the Year Kyrie Irving, but they still need a little work to get back into the playoffs.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Golden State at Toronto - Raptors by 1
New Jersey at Charlotte - Nets by 6
LA Clippers at Houston - Rockets by 1
Chicago at Philadelphia - 76ers by 1
Sacramento at Phoenix - Suns by 4
Denver at San Antonio - Spurs by 5
Monday
Utah at Cleveland - Jazz by 2
Golden State at Washington - Warriors by 4
Orlando at Toronto - Magic by 4
Indiana at Chicago - Bulls by 7
Philadelphia at Milwaukee - 76ers by 5
LA Clippers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 2
Dallas at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Sacramento at Denver - Nuggets by 11
New Orleans at Portland - Trail Blazers by 10
Tuesday
Atlanta at Indiana - Pacers by 5
Orlando at Charlotte - Magic by 13
Houston at Boston - Celtics by 2
LA Lakers at Detroit - Lakers by 7
New Jersey at Miami - Heat by 17
New York at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Wednesday
Boston at Philadelphia - 76ers by 9
LA Lakers at Washington - Lakers by 8
Houston at Toronto - Rockets by 2
Utah at Charlotte - Jazz by 10
Atlanta at Miami - Heat by 11
Phoenix at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 12
Chicago at Milwaukee - Bulls by 7
Portland at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 2
LA Clippers at New Jersey - Clippers by 5
New York at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Cleveland at Denver - Nuggets by 12
New Orleans at Sacramento - Kings by 2
Memphis at Golden State - Grizzlies by 2
Thursday
Orlando at Chicago - Bulls by 8
Dallas at Phoenix - Mavericks by 2
Friday
Utah at Philadelphia - 76ers by 9
New Jersey at Charlotte - Nets by 6
Portland at Boston - Trail Blazers by 1
Atlanta at Detroit - Hawks by 5
LA Lakers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 1
Cleveland at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 16
New York at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
LA Clippers at San Antonio - Spurs by 6
New Orleans at Denver - Nuggets by 10
Dallas at Sacramento - Mavericks by 5
Saturday
Portland at Washington - Trail Blazers by 8
Toronto at Detroit - Pistons by 1
Indiana at Miami - Heat by 9
Utah at Chicago - Bulls by 11
New Orleans at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 8
Houston at New Jersey - Rockets by 3
Charlotte at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 24
Memphis at Phoenix - Grizzlies by 2
Dallas at Golden State - Mavericks by 2
Sunday
Philadelphia at New York - 76ers by 2
Boston at LA Lakers - Lakers by 8
Prediction Results
NBA: 29-16 (.644) 230-125 overall (.648)
Upsets: 4-3 (.571) 41-30 overall (.577)
Friday, March 2, 2012
Top 100 NBA Players: #17
Dirk Nowitzki
(Simmons: #37, BBR: #18)
Dirk Nowitzki made the leap from just outside the top 20 to solidly inside because of one magical season that just concluded. Without his breakthrough, when he was finally able to prove that he could win when it counted, he would not be ranked this high, but last season changed that.
Dirk has been a very consistent player throughout his time as a Maverick. For 11 straight seasons, he averaged at least 20 points per game. Contrast that with Kevin Garnett, with whom he has many similarities, and you'll notice that Garnett only recorded 9 consecutive seasons of 20 or more points. During that entire time, he missed fewer than 10 games in each and every season, which meant that they could count on those 20 points every night.
When Dirk first arrived in Dallas, the team still belonged to Michael Finley. After two seasons, the torch was passed to the big German, who led Dallas to its first playoff berth in over a decade, a feat that he has duplicated in every season since, with that streak currently at 11 straight seasons as well. Kevin Garnett, meanwhile, missed the playoffs in three straight seasons with Minnesota.
Dirk is also one of only 7 players in history to finish an entire season with a 50-40-90, meaning 50% or better from the field, 40% or better from long range, and 90% or better from the free throw line. It requires a very accurate and complete offensive player to accomplish that, and among the other names that grace the list are Larry Bird, Steve Nash, and Reggie Miller. Of all of them, Dirk had the second-highest scoring average in his special season, with only Bird topping him.
Nowitzki has never been known as a great rebounder, especially considering that he is 7 feet tall. He has never finished a season averaging over 10 rebounds per game, but in the playoffs, he has always turned it up a notch, grabbing at least 10 rebounds per game in 8 straight postseason campaigns. So not only did he get his team to the playoffs every year, he also stepped it up when he got there.
During his reign as the Mavericks' superstar, Dirk has led three deep playoff runs. In 2003, he took Dallas to the Western Conference Finals, where they lost to the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs. After a few seasons that ended in disappointment, he took them a step farther in 2006, getting them to the Finals, where they took a 2-0 lead and were minutes away from going up 3-0 before things fell apart and they lost to Miami. Then in 2011, he was able to take a team with no other star all the way back to the Finals to face the same Heat team, except that Miami had three superstars to Dallas' one, but Dirk trumped those three and took home the Finals MVP in the process, during his 13th season in the league.
Nowitzki and Pippen followed pretty similar paths for a while in their careers, until Dirk became a monster for a couple of years. Pippen hit the wall after 10 seasons, then became a solid role player for a few years before becoming a bench player. Dirk, however, has remained a superstar through 13 seasons, long after most players start to falter. Pippen obviously has the edge in championships, but Dirk was the leader of two Finals teams, which neither Pippen nor Garnett can claim, and he won a title with very little help, while Garnett had a lot of help and Pippen was the help.
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