Basketball Predictions - 5 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

New York at LA Clippers - Clippers by 14
Portland at Miami - Heat by 7
Minnesota at Cleveland - Timberwolves by 1
Memphis at Phoenix - Suns by 4.5
Detroit at LA Lakers - Lakers by 13.5

NCAA

Richmond at Rhode Island - Rams by 5.5
VCU at George Mason - Rams by 1
Navy at Holy Cross - Midshipmen by 6.5
(20) Dayton at Saint Joseph's - Flyers by 16.5
Wright State at Detroit Mercy - Raiders by 6.5
Stony Brook at Maine - Seawolves by 9.5
Manhattan at Niagara - Purple Eagles by 3
(12) Michigan at (14) Michigan State - Spartans by 7.5
Davidson at Duquesne - Dukes by 7.5
La Salle at Fordham - Explorers by 1.5
Siena at Rider - Broncs by 8.5
Fairfield at Canisius - Griffins by 5.5
Iona at Monmouth - Hawks by 9
IUPUI at Green Bay - Phoenix by 13.5
Loyola (MD) at Lehigh - Mountain Hawks by 3
Bucknell at Lafayette - Leopards by 13
UIC at Milwaukee - Panthers by 9.5
Marist at Saint Peter's - Peacocks by 14
Northland at North Dakota State - Bison by 28.5
Northern Kentucky at Oakland - Golden Grizzlies by 1.5
Boston U at American - Eagles by 4.5
St. Bonaventure at George Washington - Bonnies by 2
UMass at Saint Louis - Billikens by 10
Denver at South Dakota - Coyotes by 13.5
St. John's at Xavier - Musketeers by 8
Houston Baptist at Northwestern State - Demons by 6.5
Fort Wayne at North Dakota - Hawks by 7.5
Oregon State at Colorado - Buffaloes by 10
Northwestern at Minnesota - Gophers by 15.5
Purdue at Illinois - Illini by 2
USC at Washington - Huskies by 5

Results

NBA: 6-5 (.545) 351-181 overall (.660)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 38-43 overall (.469)
NCAA: 88-38 (.698) 2148-590 overall (.785)
Upsets: 8-5 (.615) 116-142 overall (.450)

Basketball Predictions - 4 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Memphis at LA Clippers - Clippers by 14
Toronto at Brooklyn - Raptors by 4.5
Utah at Orlando - Jazz by 0.5
Oklahoma City at Cleveland - Thunder by 5.5
Indiana at Atlanta - Pacers by 7.5
Boston at Chicago - Celtics by 6.5
Denver at Washington - Nuggets by 6.5
Detroit at Golden State - Pistons by 0.5
San Antonio at Milwaukee - Bucks by 15
Charlotte at Dallas - Mavericks by 16
New Orleans at Sacramento - Kings by 1.5

NCAA

Creighton at (11) Butler - Bulldogs by 11
Indiana at (15) Maryland - Terrapins by 11.5
Oklahoma State at (22) Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 5
LSU at Tennessee - Volunteers by 3.5
Wake Forest at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 6
Akron at Eastern Michigan - Zips by 1
NC State at Clemson - Wolfpack by 2.5
Georgia at (9) Memphis - Tigers by 13
UMass Lowell at UMBC - Retrievers by 4
Seattle at Chicago State - Redhawks by 4.5
Fairleigh Dickinson at Bryant - Bulldogs by 16.5
Samford at VMI - Keydets by 4.5
Wyoming at Colorado State - Rams by 15.5
Western Carolina at Citadel - Catamounts by 1.5
Kansas State at Oklahoma - Sooners by 10.5
(18) Florida State at (7) Louisville - Cardinals by 6
(10) Villanova at Marquette - Golden Eagles by 4.5
Missouri at (17) Kentucky - Wildcats by 5.5
Virginia Tech at (19) Virginia - Cavaliers by 5
(23) Iowa vs. (21) Penn State - Nittany Lions by 2.5
UConn at South Florida - Huskies by 3
Providence at DePaul - Blue Demons by 7
New Hampshire at Hartford - Wildcats by 0.5
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 0.5
Northern Illinois at Buffalo - Bulls by 5
Miami (OH) at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 8
Morgan State at Delaware State - Bears by 2
Long Island at Mt. St. Mary's - Mountaineers by 1
North Texas at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 4.5
Winthrop at Campbell - Camels by 2
UC Irvine at Harvard - Crimson by 6
Texas State at Arkansas State - Bobcats by 2.5
South Alabama at UL Monroe - Warhawks by 2.5
Abilene Christian at Lamar - Cardinals by 3.5
Youngstown State at Cleveland State - Penguins by 2.5
UT Arlington at Little Rock - Trojans by 3
Tennessee Tech at Morehead State - Eagles by 12.5
Presbyterian at Gardner-Webb - Bulldogs by 12.5
USC Upstate at Longwood - Lancers by 6
St. Francis (PA) at Central Connecticut - Red Flash by 13
(16) West Virginia at (3) Kansas - Jayhawks by 8.5
Ole Miss at (24) Wichita State - Shockers by 12
Montana State at Southern Utah - Thunderbirds by 8.5
Notre Dame at Syracuse - Orange by 5.5
Ohio at Western Michigan - Broncos by 2
UTEP at Florida Atlantic - Owls by 1.5
South Carolina State at Coppin State - Eagles by 10
Howard at Maryland-Eastern Shore - Hawks by 9
Robert Morris at Merrimack - Warriors by 6
Middle Tennessee at Charlotte - 49ers by 19
Florida A&M at NC Central - Eagles by 4.5
Jacksonville State at Eastern Kentucky - Gamecocks by 1
James Madison at Charleston - Cougars by 12.5
Elon at Hofstra - Pride by 14
Liberty at NJIT - Flames by 9.5
Albany at Binghamton - Bearcats by 3.5
Cincinnati at Tulane - Bearcats by 0.5
East Tennessee State at Furman - Paladins by 6
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State - Mountaineers by 7.5
William & Mary at Northeastern - Huskies by 4.5
Illinois State at Southern Illinois - Salukis by 8.5
McNeese at Central Arkansas - Cowboys by 1
(8) Auburn at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 0.5
SE Louisiana at Texas A&M-CC - Islanders by 9
UT Martin at Austin Peay - Governors by 10
Stetson at Kennesaw State - Hatters by 2.5
High Point at Radford - Highlanders by 23
Chattanooga at Mercer - Mocs by 2
North Florida at North Alabama - Lions by 2
(4) Oregon at Utah - Ducks by 3
Rice at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 9.5
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 20.5
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Mississippi Valley State - Delta Devils by 2
SIU Edwardsville at Tennessee State - Tigers by 15.5
San Diego at Santa Clara - Broncos by 8
Portland State at Eastern Washington - Eagles by 8
Eastern Illinois at Belmont - Bruins by 7.5
Western Illinois at South Dakota State - Jackrabbits by 12.5
St. Katherine at CSU Northridge - Matadors by 20
Alabama State at Jackson State - Tigers by 2.5
Boise State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 7.5
Indiana State at Drake - Bulldogs by 2.5
Alabama at Florida - Gators by 6.5
Weber State at Northern Arizona - Lumberjacks by 11
Georgia Tech at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9
Iowa State at TCU - Horned Frogs by 1
Charleston Southern at Hampton - Pirates by 3
Alcorn State at Prairie View A&M - Panthers by 8.5
Bethune-Cookman at Norfolk State - Spartans by 0.5
Nicholls at Sam Houston State - Bearkats by 10
Alabama A&M at Grambling - Tigers by 10.5
UTSA at FIU - Golden Panthers by 10.5
Princeton at Penn - Quakers by 14
Lipscomb at Florida Gulf Coast - Bisons by 4.5
Texas A&M at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 21.5
UNC Greensboro at Wofford - Terriers by 1
UAB at Old Dominion - Monarchs by 5
Sacred Heart at Wagner - Pioneers by 0.5
Towson at UNC Wilmington - Tigers by 1
UCLA at Washington State - Cougars by 5.5
Valparaiso at Evansville - Aces by 1.5
San Jose State at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 14.5
Stephen F Austin at New Orleans - Lumberjacks by 5.5
CSU Los Angeles at Long Beach State - 49ers by 19
(2) Duke at Miami - Blue Devils by 5
Texas at (6) Baylor - Bears by 12
Bradley at Northern Iowa - Panthers by 9.5
Missouri State at Loyola Chicago - Ramblers by 7
San Diego Christian at UC Riverside - Highlanders by 31
Oral Roberts at Omaha - Mavericks by 3.5
Utah Valley at UMKC - Kangaroos by 7
SE Missouri State at Murray State - Racers by 12.5
Troy at Louisiana - Ragin Cajuns by 4.5
Southern at Texas Southern - Tigers by 10
Loyola Marymount at BYU - Cougars by 15.5
Montana at Northern Colorado - Bears by 14
SMU at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 1.5
Arizona State at (25) Arizona - Wildcats by 12
Pepperdine at (1) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 20.5
(13) San Diego State at Utah State - Aztecs by 1.5
Air Force at UNLV - Rebels by 6.5
Grand Canyon at CSU Bakersfield - Roadrunners by 10
Saint Mary's at Pacific - Gaels by 3
San Francisco at Portland - Dons by 5.5
New Mexico State at Cal Baptist - Lancers by 4
Idaho State at Sacramento State - Hornets by 10.5

Results

NBA: 4-1 (.800) 345-176 overall (.662)
Upsets: 37-43 overall (.463)
NCAA: 13-8 (.619) 2060-552 overall (.789)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 108-137 overall (.441)

Basketball Predictions - 3 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Miami at Orlando - Heat by 2.5
Portland at Washington - Trail Blazers by 0.5
Atlanta at Boston - Celtics by 16.5
Philadelphia at Houston - Rockets by 3.5
New York at Phoenix - Suns by 6.5
New Orleans at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11.5

NCAA

Mid-Atlantic Christian at North Carolina A&T - Aggies by 17
Wisconsin at (5) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 10.5
Wright State at Oakland - Golden Grizzlies by 2
Fairfield at Niagara - Purple Eagles by 0.5
Monmouth at Siena - Saints by 8.5
Toledo at Ball State - Cardinals by 4
UCF at Houston - Cougars by 11
Delaware at Drexel - Blue Hens by 0.5
Manhattan at Canisius - Griffins by 8.5
Saint Peter's at Iona - Gaels by 3.5
Quinnipiac at Marist - Bobcats by 3.5
Northern Kentucky at Detroit Mercy - Norse by 6
UIC at Green Bay - Phoenix by 13
IUPUI at Milwaukee - Panthers by 11
Rutgers at Nebraska - Scarlet Knights by 2.5
Georgetown at Seton Hall - Pirates by 11
Kent State at Bowling Green - Falcons by 0.5
Temple at Tulsa - Owls by 5
Vanguard at Cal Poly - Mustangs by 18.5
St. Katherine at CSU Fullerton - Titans by 20
Holy Names at UC Davis - Aggies by 24

Results

NBA: 7-2 (.778) 341-175 overall (.661)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 37-43 overall (.463)
NCAA: 51-23 (.689) 2047-544 overall (.790)
Upsets: 1-5 (.167) 107-136 overall (.440)

Basketball Predictions - 2 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Charlotte at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
Denver at Indiana - Pacers by 2
Toronto at Miami - Heat by 0.5
Golden State at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
Utah at Chicago - Jazz by 2.5
Brooklyn at Dallas - Mavericks by 11
Oklahoma City at San Antonio - Thunder by 1
Memphis at Sacramento - Kings by 4
Detroit at LA Clippers - Clippers by 13.5

NCAA

UTEP at Florida International - Golden Panthers by 7.5
Stephen F Austin at SE Louisiana - Lumberjacks by 13
St. Francis (PA) at Bryant - Bulldogs by 6.5
Liberty at Florida Gulf Coast - Flames by 14.5
Columbia at Maine - Lions by 3
James Madison at UNC Wilmington - Seahawks by 2
American at Colgate - Raiders by 7.5
Longwood at Winthrop - Eagles by 13.5
Elon at Northeastern - Huskies by 16.5
Wagner at Mt. St. Mary's - Mountaineers by 6.5
Lipscomb at Stetson - Hatters by 0.5
UTSA at FAU - Owls by 4
Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion - Monarchs by 13.5
UAB at Charlotte - 49ers by 11.5
Georgia State at Appalachian State - Mountaineers by 4.5
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 6.5
Vermont at Dartmouth - Catamounts by 3.5
Gardner-Webb at Campbell - Camels by 10
Jacksonville at North Alabama - Lions by 2.5
North Florida at Kennesaw State - Ospreys by 7
Minnesota at Purdue - Boilermakers by 4.5
Saint Louis at Duquesne - Dukes by 8.5
Saint Joseph's at Richmond - Spiders by 17
Fordham at VCU - VCU Rams by 19
Rhode Island at Brown - Rams by 6.5
UNC Asheville at Presbyterian - Bulldogs by 6.5
Towson at Charleston - Cougars by 9.5
William & Mary at Hofstra - Pride by 7
Army at Bucknell - Bison by 7.5
Lafayette at Boston U - Terriers by 2.5
Lehigh at Navy - Midshipmen by 9
Holy Cross at Loyola (MD) - Greyhounds by 17.5
Rice at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 8
North Texas at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 4
Merrimack at Sacred Heart - Pioneers by 13
USC Upstate at Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 5
Texas State at Little Rock - Trojans by 3.5
Robert Morris at Central Connecticut - Colonials by 5.5
Fairleigh Dickinson at St. Francis (BKN) - Terriers by 6
Tennessee Tech at Eastern Kentucky - Colonels by 6
Illinois at (14) Michigan State - Spartans by 10.5
Seattle at UMKC - Kangaroos by 9
SIU Edwardsville at Belmont - Bruins by 25
Troy at UL Monroe - Warhawks by 3
Northwestern State at Texas A&M-CC - Islanders by 7
UT Arlington at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 0.5
South Alabama at Louisiana - Ragin Cajuns by 2.5
UT Martin at Murray State - Racers by 13.5
Lamar at New Orleans - Privateers by 3.5
Central Arkansas at Houston Baptist - Huskies by 3.5
Incarnate Word at Nicholls - Colonels by 17
Utah Valley at Chicago State - Wolverines by 3.5
(20) Dayton at La Salle - Flyers by 7
Oregon State at Utah - Utes by 2.5
Eastern Illinois at Tennessee State - Tigers by 2
SE Missouri State at Austin Peay - Governors by 8
Sam Houston State at McNeese - Cowboys by 1.5
(4) Oregon at Colorado - Buffaloes by 2.5
Montana at Southern Utah - Thunderbirds by 12.5
Montana State at Northern Colorado - Bears by 12.5
Western Illinois at North Dakota State - Bison by 13
North Dakota at Denver - Hawks by 3.5
Jacksonville State at Morehead State - Eagles by 5
Oral Roberts at South Dakota State - Jackrabbits by 3
Portland State at Idaho - Vikings by 5.5
(1) Gonzaga at Portland - Bulldogs by 14
Westmont at UC Santa Barbara - Gauchos by 28.5
UCLA at Washington - Huskies by 12
UT Rio Grande at Cal Baptist - Lancers by 10.5
San Diego at Loyola Marymount - Lions by 5.5
Pacific at Pepperdine - Waves by 2.5
USC at Washington State - Cougars by 2.5
California at Stanford - Cardinal by 17.5
Saint Mary's at San Francisco - Dons by 2

Results

NBA: 3-1 (.750) 334-173 overall (.659)
Upsets: 36-42 overall (.462)
NCAA: 12-2 (.857) 1996-521 overall (.793)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 106-131 overall (.447)

Basketball Predictions - 1 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Orlando at Washington - Magic by 0.5
Portland at New York - Trail Blazers by 3
Minnesota at Milwaukee - Bucks by 17.5
Phoenix at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11

NCAA

Furman at VMI - Paladins by 6
Fresno State at (13) San Diego State - Aztecs by 18
East Carolina at (24) Wichita State - Shockers by 20
South Dakota at Fort Wayne - Mastodons by 3.5
Citadel at Samford - Samford Bulldogs by 5.5
Wofford at East Tennessee State - Buccaneers by 12
South Florida at SMU - Mustangs by 10.5
UConn at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 1.5
Mercer at UNC Greensboro - Spartans by 20.5
Wyoming at Boise State - Broncos by 18.5
Marquette at Creighton - Bluejays by 2
New Mexico at San Jose State - Lobos by 5.5
Colorado State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 9.5
Utah State at UNLV - Aggies by 4

Results

NBA: 6-1 (.857) 331-172 overall (.658)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 36-42 overall (.462)
NCAA: 12-3 (.800) 1985-520 overall (.792)
Upsets: 105-131 overall (.445)

NFL Playoff Odds - 2020

After a final weekend that had over a dozen crazy playoff scenarios, very little actually changed in week 17, with Kansas City and New England swapping spots while the rest remained exactly where they had been. I've broken down every team's odds of beating any other team and where that game would be played, along with the odds of that matchup taking place, to determine each team's odds of advancing through each playoff round and winning the Super Bowl. Here is the full breakdown:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

1. Patriots - 67.2%
2. Saints - 61.9%
3. Texans - 51.6%
4. Eagles - 51.3%
5. Seahawks - 48.7%
6. Bills - 48.4%
7. Vikings - 38.1%
8. Titans - 32.8%

Home field advantage is very important here, especially in the 4-5 matchups, where the road team is the better team but must face the opposing crowd.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Ravens - 82.2%
2. 49ers - 72.2%
3. Chiefs - 62.7%
4. Packers - 51.7%
5. Saints - 33.4%
6. Patriots - 28.6%
7. Seahawks - 15.9%
8. Eagles - 14.4%
9. Vikings - 12.5%
10. Bills - 10.5%
11. Texans - 9.2%
12. Titans - 6.8%

The Saints odds are pretty decent here, despite the fact that they would have to go through Green Bay to get there. New Orleans better by quite a bit, so they would be favored in that game. The Seahawks also have a better chance of winning 2 than the Eagles, even though the Eagles have a slightly better chance of winning this weekend.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 57.2%
2. 49ers - 49.4%
3. Chiefs - 24.5%
4. Packers - 18.9%
5. Saints - 15.4%
6. Patriots - 10.7%
7. Vikings - 6.2%
8. Seahawks - 5.6%
9. Eagles - 4.4%
10. Bills - 2.9%
11. Titans - 2.5%
12. Texans - 2.2%

Both 6 seeds move up a little on this list, because they would have already beaten the top seeds in the divisional round in order to be in the conference title game, so they would have a less formidable opponent standing in the way at this point than the teams above them.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 37.7%
2. 49ers - 23.0%
3. Chiefs - 13.3%
4. Saints - 6.4%
5. Packers - 6.0%
6. Patriots - 5.7%
7. Vikings - 2.2%
8. Seahawks - 1.7%
9. Bills - 1.13%
10. Eagles - 1.12%
11. Titans - 1.0%
12. Texans - 0.8%

The Ravens, who haven't lost since September, are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl, but it is far from a runaway. 6 teams have a legitimate shot, and none of the other 6 should be counted out.

My Picks

Wild Card

Patriots 28, Titans 21
Bills 21, Texans 20
Saints 28, Vikings 22
Seahawks 26, Eagles 24

Division

Ravens 27, Bills 12
Chiefs 23, Patriots 20
49ers 32, Seahawks 22
Saints 25, Packers 24

Conference

Ravens 24, Chiefs 17
49ers 32, Saints 27

Super Bowl

Ravens 28, 49ers 24

Basketball Predictions - 31 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Philadelphia at Indiana - Pacers by 0.5
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 11
LA Clippers at Sacramento - Clippers by 7
Golden State at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 13.5
Denver at Houston - Rockets by 2.5
Dallas at Oklahoma City - Mavericks by 4

NCAA

Georgia Tech at (18) Florida State - Seminoles by 13.5
Hartford at Bowling Green - Falcons by 11
Temple at UCF - Owls by 0.5
George Washington at Vermont - Catamounts by 17
Northern Iowa at Illinois State - Panthers by 7.5
Morgan State at CSU Northridge - Matadors by 5.5
Miami at Clemson - Tigers by 1
UC Riverside at Air Force - Falcons by 0.5
Evansville at Missouri State - Bears by 9.5
Georgetown at Providence - Friars by 0.5
Boston College at (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 23
Rider at Wisconsin - Badgers by 11.5
Florida A&M at Iowa State - Cyclones by 25.5
Drake at Bradley - Braves by 7.5
(11) Butler at St. John's - Bulldogs by 1.5

Results

NBA: 2-4 (.333) 325-171 overall (.655)
Upsets: 34-42 overall (.447)
NCAA: 34-16 (.680) 1973-517 overall (.792)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 105-131 overall (.445)