College Football Rankings - 3 Sep

Week one is in the books, and there were surprises all over the place, with 8 FCS teams beating FBS foes on the road, including one of my top 10 teams. A few teams seemed unaffected by the craziness, including defending champion Alabama and Oregon, while a few teams vaulted themselves into the spotlight with large, unexpected victories. Here are my full current rankings, along with each team's predicted final record and odds of finishing the regular season undefeated, including conference championship games.

Rank	LW	Team	Rec	Rating	Pred	Change	Undef %
1	1	Alabama	1-0	-28.2575	12-1		32.5
2	39	Louisville	1-0	-24.7135	12-0	+1	67.7
3	3	Texas A&M	1-0	-24.0152	11-1	+1	14.9
4	16	Washington	1-0	-23.485	11-1	+2	22.7
5	2	Oregon	1-0	-22.232	12-1	-1	17.4
6	6	Oklahoma State	1-0	-21.2677	11-1		34.6
7	21	Oklahoma	1-0	-20.4466	10-2	+3	5.8
8	5	LSU	1-0	-19.209	9-3		0.8
9	4	Georgia	0-1	-18.0507	9-3	-3
10	79	Bowling Green	1-0	-16.7416	12-1	+6	42.2
11	13	Baylor	1-0	-16.4885	10-2		3.4
12	26	Clemson	1-0	-16.0522	11-2	+2	4.5
13	14	Arizona State	0-0	-15.853	10-3		1.3
14	9	Ole Miss	1-0	-15.8149	9-3		0.5
15	29	Miami (FL)	1-0	-15.8064	11-2	+1	9.0
16	38	Michigan	1-0	-15.7336	11-2	+4	7.2
17	15	Ohio State	1-0	-15.2743	11-2	+1	6.1
18	48	UCLA	1-0	-15.1453	9-3	+3	1.3
19	12	Wisconsin	1-0	-14.3044	10-2		5.1
20	19	South Carolina	1-0	-13.7601	10-3	+1	0.3
21	49	Cincinnati	1-0	-13.1674	11-1	+2	17.4
22	28	Florida	1-0	-12.7713	8-4	+1	0.2
23	31	Florida State	1-0	-12.0084	10-2		3.2
24	30	Texas Tech	1-0	-11.9507	9-3	+1	0.2
25	8	Texas	1-0	-11.8925	8-4	-1
26	20	Notre Dame	1-0	-10.3657	9-3	-1	1.8
27	32	TCU	0-1	-9.20898	7-5	+1
28	63	Georgia Tech	1-0	-8.64302	8-4	+2	0.2
29	42	Utah State	0-1	-8.35363	11-2	+2
30	51	Rice	0-1	-8.0137	11-2	+2
31	18	Utah	1-0	-7.35508	9-3	+1
32	44	Vanderbilt	0-1	-6.8164	7-5
33	7	Northwestern	1-0	-6.10829	8-4	-3	0.4
34	24	UCF	1-0	-5.27285	9-3	-1
35	40	Penn State	1-0	-5.2253	8-4	+1	0.1
36	22	Northern Illinois	1-0	-4.44594	12-1	+1	7.4
37	59	North Carolina State	1-0	-3.98109	9-3	+1	1.1
38	68	Wyoming	0-1	-3.57525	9-3	+1
39	82	Maryland	1-0	-3.28572	9-3	+3	0.3
40	41	Mississippi State	0-1	-3.2677	5-7	-1
41	77	Virginia Tech	0-1	-3.25747	8-4	+2
42	37	Western Kentucky	1-0	-1.9863	11-1	+1	21.9
43	43	North Carolina	0-1	-1.75866	8-4	-1
44	23	Nebraska	1-0	-1.57671	8-4	-2
45	56	Buffalo	0-1	-0.27281	8-4	+1
46	34	Toledo	0-1	0.230166	8-4	-1
47	60	Arkansas State	1-0	0.317901	9-3	+1	1.8
48	47	USC	1-0	0.643076	8-5
49	58	Syracuse	0-1	0.774701	6-6	-1
50	78	Rutgers	0-1	0.831886	7-5
51	17	Brigham Young	0-1	1.229743	5-7	-4
52	46	Missouri	1-0	1.390781	5-7	-1
53	96	Minnesota	1-0	1.448812	7-5	+3
54	52	Michigan State	1-0	1.842805	7-5
55	72	Marshall	1-0	2.08466	9-4	+3	0.2
56	105	Virginia	1-0	3.228287	6-6	+3
57	35	Indiana	1-0	3.410263	6-6	-2
58	33	Boise State	0-1	3.516437	8-4	-1
59	87	Iowa	0-1	3.5526	5-7	+2
60	66	Memphis	0-0	3.935871	8-4	+1
61	55	Fresno State	1-0	4.830431	10-3	+1	0.3
62	11	Tulsa	0-1	5.259834	7-5	-5
63	118	Arkansas	1-0	5.473187	5-7	+3
64	76	Stanford	0-0	6.3356	4-8	+1
65	81	Temple	0-1	6.635742	6-6	+1
66	106	Colorado	1-0	6.647264	5-7	+2
67	88	Kentucky	0-1	7.013701	3-9	-1
68	50	Florida Atlantic	0-1	7.195056	8-4	-1
69	67	UTSA	1-0	7.37705	6-6
70	99	Houston	1-0	7.417812	5-7	+2
71	53	Louisiana-Monroe	0-1	8.554858	7-5	-1
72	92	Duke	1-0	8.635255	5-7
73	64	Arizona	1-0	8.954709	4-8	-2
74	62	UAB	0-1	9.39531	6-6	-1
75	100	Auburn	1-0	9.747848	4-8	+1
76	27	Ball State	1-0	9.776592	8-4	-2
77	94	Western Michigan	0-1	9.84426	6-6	+2
78	103	Tennessee	1-0	10.4335	4-8	+1
79	75	Southern Methodist	0-1	11.04789	5-7
80	45	San Jose State	1-0	11.38021	7-5	-3
81	109	Troy	1-0	11.39385	6-6	+2
82	80	Washington State	0-1	11.7493	4-8	-1
83	25	Ohio	0-1	12.28799	7-5	-4
84	84	North Texas	1-0	12.30962	6-6	+1
85	117	California	0-1	12.89025	4-8	+3
86	119	Texas State	1-0	14.73772	7-5	+4
87	102	UTEP	0-0	15.52363	6-6	+2
88	104	Kansas	0-0	16.45263	4-8	+2
89	90	Tulane	1-0	16.50133	5-7
90	73	Purdue	0-1	16.83402	2-10	-2
91	10	Oregon State	0-1	16.9284	3-9	-7
92	95	Louisiana Tech	0-1	17.02036	5-7	+1
93	107	Navy	0-0	17.48559	5-7
94	86	Wake Forest	1-0	17.52693	3-9	-1
95	70	Nevada	0-1	17.85612	6-6
96	85	Middle Tennessee	1-0	18.95829	4-8	-1
97	69	Army	1-0	19.10817	6-6	-2
98	65	East Carolina	1-0	19.47717	4-8	-2
99	113	New Mexico	0-1	20.37559	5-7	+2
100	54	Louisiana-Lafayette	0-1	20.47464	6-6	-3
101	91	Colorado State	0-1	20.64726	4-9	-2
102	114	Akron	0-1	20.72861	4-8	+2
103	101	Pittsburgh	0-1	20.99015	2-10	-2
104	61	Kent State	1-0	22.46101	3-9	-4
105	116	Hawaii	0-1	22.64162	4-8	+3
106	74	Boston College	1-0	22.80218	3-9	-3
107	36	Kansas State	0-1	24.07243	3-9	-4
108	93	UNLV	0-1	24.45027	5-7	-1
109	98	Florida International	0-1	24.71574	3-9	-1
110	83	Illinois	1-0	24.88827	2-10	-1
111	120	Massachusetts	0-1	25.6971	3-9
112	97	Southern Miss	0-1	26.73627	2-10	-2
113	122	Air Force	1-0	28.68609	3-9	+2
114	108	Central Michigan	0-1	29.26783	3-9	-1
115	110	West Virginia	1-0	30.78951	3-9
116	112	Eastern Michigan	1-0	31.00198	2-10
117	71	Iowa State	0-1	31.39681	1-11	-3
118	123	New Mexico State	0-1	32.10897	3-9	+1
119	57	Connecticut	0-1	32.35149	1-11	-6
120	121	Miami (OH)	0-1	35.08612	1-11
121	111	South Alabama	0-1	35.60072	1-11	-3
122	89	San Diego State	0-1	40.24062	1-11	-5
123	124	Idaho	0-1	41.31108	1-11
124	125	Georgia State	0-1	52.33927	0-12	-2
125	115	South Florida	0-1	53.34568	0-12	-1

Ranked Teams by Conference

SEC - 7

Big 12 - 5

Pac 12 - 4

ACC - 3

Big 10 - 3

AAC - 2

MAC - 1

Louisville didn't do enough last year to prove to me that they deserved a top 10 spot entering the season, but after they demolished MAC favorite Ohio in their opener, the Cardinals have vaulted into the spotlight, and they are currently the most likely team to finish the season undefeated, which should be enough to earn them a spot in the national title game, even with their weak schedule. They must dominate in every game and hope for no undefeated teams in the 3 power conferences, but the road in front of them is wide open.

It may not have been the Boise State of the Kellen Moore era, but Washington's blowout of the Broncos jumped them into the top 5, right ahead of conference rival Oregon, thanks to the complete dominance shown by the Huskies throughout the entire game. The Pac 12 North may be decided October 12th in Seattle, which would be a huge advantage for a team that hopes to end Oregon's BCS streak at 4 seasons.

Oklahoma is usually remembered for their big offensive production, not for their defensive prowess, but in week one they shut out the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, who were upset darlings at the beginning of last season. That victory catapulted the Sooners to #7, right behind in-state rival Oklahoma State, and that could make their matchup during championship week the non-official Big 12 title game.

Tulsa has been a very good team for several years now, and they were expected to dominate Conference USA again, but they were no match for the Bowling Green Falcons on Thursday, not even scoring until the final 6 minutes, by which time they were down 34-7. That huge win put the Falcons in the top 10 and made them the favorite to win the MAC and possibly crash the final BCS this January.