NCAA Bracket Prediction - 2 Mar

March is here, and it's only 2 weeks until the official bracket is released, and in this week's predicted bracket, there is a lot of movement on the bubble, with 5 new teams jumping in. Georgia, Indiana, Boise State, North Carolina, and Xavier are all on the inside this week, pushing out SMU, Texas, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, and Nebraska, marking the biggest shift seen so far this season in the bracket. There was also a change at the top, where Duke slipped to a #2 seed, in favor of Florida. There are currently 6 teams in the running for the #1 seeds, with Auburn as the only lock, while Tennessee and Duke are both on the wrong side for now. Here is my full current bracket, with rising teams in green, falling teams in red, new teams in italics, and conference leaders in bold:

	SOUTH			EAST
1	Auburn		1	Alabama
16	Southern/American		16	Quinnipiac/SE Missouri St
8	Creighton		8	Memphis
9	New Mexico		9	Utah State
5	Texas A&M		5	Maryland
12	McNeese		12	Liberty
4	Arizona		4	Clemson
13	High Point		13	Yale
6	Louisville		6	Missouri
11	Ohio State/Boise State		11	Indiana
3	Texas Tech		3	Iowa State
14	Utah Valley		14	Northern Colorado
7	Mississippi State		7	Ole Miss
10	VCU		10	Baylor
2	Wisconsin		2	Michigan State
15	Towson		15	Robert Morris
	MIDWEST			WEST
1	Florida		1	Houston
16	Bryant		16	Omaha
8	BYU		8	Gonzaga
9	UConn		9	Vanderbilt
5	Saint Mary’s		5	Marquette
12	North Carolina/Xavier		12	UC San Diego
4	Purdue		4	Kentucky
13	Arkansas State		13	Akron
6	Oregon		6	Kansas
11	West Virginia		11	Drake
3	St. John’s		3	Michigan
14	Chattanooga		14	Lipscomb
7	Illinois		7	UCLA
10	Georgia		10	San Diego State
2	Duke		2	Tennessee
15	Norfolk State		15	Central Connecticut

Last Four Byes

Georgia

San Diego State

West Virginia

Indiana

Last Four In

Ohio State

Boise State

North Carolina

Xavier

First Four Out

SMU

Arkansas

Oklahoma

Nebraska

Next Four Out

Wake Forest

Cincinnati

Texas

UC Irvine

Teams by Conference

SEC - 11

Big 10 - 10

Big 12 - 8

Big East - 5

ACC - 4

MWC - 4

WCC - 2

NCAA Football Playoff Odds

The first 12-team NCAA Football Playoff starts in a couple of hours, so I've gone through each team's performance this season, calculating each team's odds of meeting any other team, and their odds of beating that team, factoring in home field advantage for the first round games, in order to determine each team's odds of making it through each round and eventually winning the championship in late January. Here is how it all breaks down, and I've also made my picks for how it will all turn out at the end of the post:

Odds of Winning First Round Game

(8) Ohio State - 77.2%

(7) Notre Dame - 74.0%

(5) Texas - 73.7%

(6) Penn State - 58.5%

(11) SMU - 41.5%

(12) Clemson - 26.3%

(10) Indiana - 26.0%

(9) Tennessee - 22.8%

Odds of Reaching Semifinals

(5) Texas - 49.8%

(1) Oregon - 47.7%

(7) Notre Dame - 46.6%

(8) Ohio State - 43.7%

(2) Georgia - 40.9%

(3) Boise State - 40.5%

(4) Arizona State - 36.3%

(6) Penn State - 34.6%

(11) SMU - 24.9%

(12) Clemson - 13.9%

(10) Indiana - 12.4%

(9) Tennessee - 8.6%

Odds of Reaching Championship Game

(7) Notre Dame - 31.6%

(8) Ohio State - 26.9%

(1) Oregon - 26.3%

(5) Texas - 25.7%

(2) Georgia - 22.5%

(6) Penn State - 14.7%

(3) Boise State - 13.7%

(4) Arizona State - 12.3%

(11) SMU - 10.9%

(10) Indiana - 6.6%

(12) Clemson - 5.1%

(9) Tennessee - 3.7%

Odds of Winning Championship

(7) Notre Dame - 18.8%

(8) Ohio State - 15.6%

(5) Texas - 14.0%

(1) Oregon - 13.5%

(2) Georgia - 10.5%

(6) Penn State - 6.6%

(11) SMU - 5.0%

(3) Boise State - 4.9%

(4) Arizona State - 4.6%

(10) Indiana - 2.9%

(12) Clemson - 2.1%

(9) Tennessee - 1.5%

Notre Dame has the best odds of winning it all, and they did finish in the top spot in my final regular season rankings, but there are 5 teams with a very solid chance of walking away with the trophy. 

My Picks

First Round

(5) Texas over (12) Clemson

(11) SMU over (6) Penn State

(7) Notre Dame over (10) Indiana

(8) Ohio State over (9) Tennessee

Second Round

(8) Ohio State over (1) Oregon

(7) Notre Dame over (2) Georgia

(3) Boise State over (11) SMU

(5) Texas over (4) Arizona State

Semifinals

(7) Notre Dame over (3) Boise State

(8) Ohio State over (5) Texas

Championship

(8) Ohio State over (7) Notre Dame

NCAA Football Rankings - 8 Dec

The regular season is over, with the exception of this weekend's Army-Navy game, and the committee will be picking the 12 teams to play in this season's college football playoff in about an hour. There are 5 teams with automatic bids, with the top 4 conference champions getting the top 4 seeds and first-round byes, and there are another 5 teams that seem to be pretty much locks to make the field, leaving 2 open spots to be filled and 6 teams with legitimate arguments to take those spots: SMU, BYU, Alabama, Indiana, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. These are my picks for how the 12 teams will be seeded today, along with my full rankings for the week:

1. Oregon

2. Georgia

3. Boise State

4. Arizona State

5. Notre Dame

6. Ohio State

7. Texas

8. Tennessee

9. Penn State

10. Indiana

11. Alabama

12. Clemson

Out: South Carolina, BYU, SMU, Ole Miss

						Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L
1	1	Notre Dame	-21.8	11	1	11	1
2	2	Ohio State	-20.66	10	2	10	2
3	3	Texas	-19.33	11	2	11	2
4	4	Oregon	-17.97	13	0	13	0
5	5	Ole Miss	-17.12	9	3	9	3
6	6	Alabama	-16.81	9	3	9	3
7	10	Georgia	-16.46	11	2	11	2
8	9	Miami	-16.36	10	2	10	2
9	7	SMU	-16.22	11	2	11	2
10	8	Penn State	-15.82	11	2	11	2
11	11	South Carolina	-15.75	9	3	9	3
12	12	Indiana	-15.59	11	1	11	1
13	13	Louisville	-14.85	8	4	8	4
14	15	Clemson	-13.25	10	3	10	3
15	14	Tennessee	-12.94	10	2	10	2
16	16	Virginia Tech	-12.47	6	6	6	6
17	20	Boise State	-12.12	12	1	12	1
18	26	Arizona State	-12.05	11	2	11	2
19	17	BYU	-11.88	10	2	10	2
20	19	Colorado	-11.45	9	3	9	3
21	21	LSU	-11.12	8	4	8	4
22	23	Texas A&M	-10.87	8	4	8	4
23	24	Iowa	-10.52	8	4	8	4
24	25	USC	-10.39	6	6	6	6
25	27	Kansas State	-9.899	8	4	8	4
26	18	Iowa State	-9.704	10	3	10	3
27	34	Army	-9.568	11	1	12	1
28	28	Baylor	-9.524	8	4	8	4
29	22	Tulane	-9.49	9	4	9	4
30	30	Florida	-9.136	7	5	7	5
31	31	Minnesota	-9.009	7	5	7	5
32	29	UNLV	-8.75	10	3	10	3
33	32	Missouri	-8.424	9	3	9	3
34	33	Kansas	-7.951	5	7	5	7
35	36	Georgia Tech	-7.575	7	5	7	5
36	35	Nebraska	-7.48	6	6	6	6
37	37	Illinois	-7.127	9	3	9	3
38	38	TCU	-6.871	8	4	8	4
39	39	Syracuse	-6.777	9	3	9	3
40	41	Vanderbilt	-6.352	6	6	6	6
41	40	Oklahoma	-6.299	6	6	6	6
42	42	Michigan	-6.278	7	5	7	5
43	43	Navy	-6.017	8	3	8	4
44	55	Marshall	-6.007	10	3	10	3
45	44	Boston College	-5.488	7	5	7	5
46	46	Arkansas	-4.902	6	6	6	6
47	59	Ohio	-4.891	10	3	10	3
48	47	Duke	-4.806	9	3	9	3
49	49	Rutgers	-4.634	7	5	7	5
50	48	Memphis	-4.577	10	2	10	2
51	51	Auburn	-4.283	5	7	5	7
52	50	Washington	-4.249	6	6	6	6
53	52	Pittsburgh	-4.153	7	5	7	5
54	57	James Madison	-3.848	8	4	8	4
55	54	Utah	-3.749	5	7	5	7
56	53	Cincinnati	-3.714	5	7	5	7
57	56	Texas Tech	-3.567	8	4	8	4
58	58	Texas State	-3.396	7	5	7	5
59	45	Louisiana	-3.08	10	3	10	3
60	60	California	-3.064	6	6	6	6
61	61	UCF	-2.883	4	8	4	8
62	65	Kentucky	-2.69	4	8	4	8
63	64	Wisconsin	-2.602	5	7	5	7
64	63	Bowling Green	-2.539	7	5	7	5
65	66	North Carolina	-2.385	6	6	6	6
66	67	Washington St	-1.827	8	4	8	4
67	68	UCLA	-1.62	5	7	5	7
68	70	South Alabama	-1.381	6	6	6	6
69	69	Northern Illinois	-1.378	7	5	7	5
70	71	Georgia Southern	-1.332	8	4	8	4
71	73	Old Dominion	-1.043	5	7	5	7
72	62	Miami (OH)	-0.959	8	5	8	5
73	72	West Virginia	-0.555	6	6	6	6
74	74	NC State	-0.152	6	6	6	6
75	75	Virginia	0.1534	5	7	5	7
76	80	Jacksonville State	0.3324	9	4	9	4
77	77	Connecticut	0.7226	8	4	8	4
78	76	Toledo	0.7956	7	5	7	5
79	79	South Florida	2.0536	6	6	6	6
80	82	UT San Antonio	2.1702	6	6	6	6
81	84	East Carolina	2.2138	7	5	7	5
82	83	Maryland	2.3263	4	8	4	8
83	81	Houston	2.4545	4	8	4	8
84	85	Michigan St	2.6153	5	7	5	7
85	78	West Kentucky	2.7475	8	5	8	5
86	87	Colorado State	3.0121	8	4	8	4
87	86	Wake Forest	3.0214	4	8	4	8
88	88	Fresno State	3.0402	6	6	6	6
89	89	Stanford	3.0464	3	9	3	9
90	91	Buffalo	3.1641	8	4	8	4
91	92	Mississippi St	3.23	2	10	2	10
92	90	Sam Houston	3.3535	9	3	9	3
93	95	Coastal Carolina	3.5576	6	6	6	6
94	93	Oklahoma State	3.6616	3	9	3	9
95	94	North Texas	3.7029	6	6	6	6
96	99	West Michigan	3.7662	6	6	6	6
97	97	San Jose State	3.937	7	5	7	5
98	96	Liberty	3.9604	8	3	8	3
99	98	Northwestern	4.1678	4	8	4	8
100	100	Appalachian St	4.1815	5	6	5	6
101	101	Florida State	4.7217	2	10	2	10
102	102	Arizona	5.0704	4	8	4	8
103	104	Oregon State	5.9346	5	7	5	7
104	103	Troy	6.1196	4	8	4	8
105	105	Nevada	6.6225	3	10	3	10
106	106	Rice	6.7031	4	8	4	8
107	107	Louisiana Monroe	6.895	5	7	5	7
108	108	Hawaii	7.2939	5	7	5	7
109	109	Air Force	8.0085	5	7	5	7
110	110	Eastern Michigan	8.0587	5	7	5	7
111	111	Akron	8.06	4	8	4	8
112	112	Utah State	8.2445	4	8	4	8
113	113	UAB	8.7956	3	9	3	9
114	114	Arkansas State	9.1058	7	5	7	5
115	115	Purdue	9.154	1	11	1	11
116	116	Louisiana Tech	9.2148	5	7	5	7
117	117	Charlotte	9.4566	5	7	5	7
118	118	Florida Intl	9.5671	4	8	4	8
119	119	Georgia State	9.7742	3	9	3	9
120	120	Wyoming	10.026	3	9	3	9
121	121	Ball State	10.568	3	9	3	9
122	122	New Mexico	10.705	5	7	5	7
123	123	Florida Atlantic	10.849	3	9	3	9
124	124	Central Michigan	10.993	4	8	4	8
125	125	San Diego State	12.395	3	9	3	9
126	126	UMass	12.773	2	10	2	10
127	127	Temple	13.417	3	9	3	9
128	128	UTEP	16.211	3	9	3	9
129	129	New Mexico St	18.207	3	9	3	9
130	130	Tulsa	18.689	3	9	3	9
131	131	Mid Tennessee	19.318	3	9	3	9
132	132	Southern Miss	19.516	1	11	1	11
133	133	Kennesaw State	19.937	2	10	2	10
134	134	Kent State	21.379	0	12	0	12