College Football Rankings - 15 Sep

It was a crazy weekend of college football, and while there weren't a ton of upsets, there were some very good games between highly-ranked teams, highlighted by the Alabama-Texas A&M battle that was everything we expected and ended up exactly as I predicted, with the Crimson Tide winning by 7. Oregon walked all over another team, but the quality of this week's opponent propelled the Tide back ahead of the Ducks into the #1 slot. Here are my full ranking for this week, along with each team's predicted finish and odds of finishing the season undefeated.

Rank	LW	Team	Rec	Rating	Pred	Change	Undef %
1	2	Alabama	3-0	-31.2237	13-0	+1	86.4
2	1	Oregon	3-0	-30.8329	12-1		50.3
3	3	Baylor	2-0	-28.978	12-0	+1	65.5
4	15	Florida State	2-0	-21.6113	12-1	+1	27.9
5	5	LSU	3-0	-19.7873	10-2		1.3
6	10	UCLA	2-0	-19.2718	10-3	+1	0.3
7	6	Oklahoma State	3-0	-17.7954	11-1		21.7
8	7	Georgia	1-1	-17.1934	9-3	-1
9	4	Washington	2-0	-16.7876	9-3	-2	1.9
10	8	Texas A&M	2-1	-16.3541	9-3	-1
11	27	Georgia Tech	2-0	-16.2243	10-3	+2	2.9
12	26	Oklahoma	3-0	-13.693	9-3	+1	0.2
13	20	Arizona State	2-0	-12.7423	9-3	+1	1.1
14	11	South Carolina	2-1	-12.7334	9-4
15	17	Miami (FL)	2-0	-12.7241	10-2	-1	3.8
16	18	Wisconsin	2-1	-12.0677	9-3
17	22	Louisville	3-0	-11.3784	11-1		39.6
18	35	Ole Miss	3-0	-11.0404	9-3	+2
19	34	Utah State	2-1	-10.94	11-2	+1
20	13	UCF	3-0	-10.7788	11-1	+1	18.6
21	24	Florida	1-1	-9.62842	7-5
22	23	Utah	2-1	-9.127	7-5	-1
23	19	Brigham Young	1-1	-8.78037	8-4
24	16	Northwestern	3-0	-8.35122	10-3		2.4
25	37	Arizona	3-0	-7.98775	8-4	+1
26	30	Clemson	2-0	-7.95629	9-3		0.7
27	9	Ohio State	3-0	-7.59748	10-3	-1	1.5
28	31	Texas Tech	3-0	-6.84975	9-3	+1
29	32	Penn State	2-1	-5.57753	8-4
30	33	Stanford	2-0	-5.16818	7-5
31	12	Michigan	3-0	-4.20095	9-3	-1	1.3
32	38	Missouri	2-0	-4.09703	7-5
33	29	Notre Dame	2-1	-3.20934	7-5	-2
34	21	Texas	1-2	-2.84905	6-6	-2
35	39	North Carolina	1-1	-2.61526	8-4
36	43	Vanderbilt	1-2	-2.44596	6-6
37	14	Bowling Green	2-1	-2.27748	11-2	-1
38	42	Syracuse	1-2	-2.0808	7-5
39	48	Marshall	2-1	-1.94354	10-3	+1
40	52	Virginia Tech	2-1	-1.69343	7-5	+1
41	73	Indiana	2-1	-1.45702	7-5	+3
42	25	Nebraska	2-1	-1.2527	8-4	-1
43	46	Cincinnati	2-1	-0.94257	9-3
44	54	USC	2-1	-0.66238	6-7
45	47	Navy	2-0	-0.49468	10-2	+1	4.4
46	40	Mississippi State	1-2	0.074332	4-8	-1
47	49	TCU	1-2	0.1468	6-6
48	51	Tennessee	2-1	0.585598	6-6	+1
49	53	Auburn	3-0	0.61765	6-6
50	61	Houston	2-0	1.415175	8-4	+2
51	28	Rice	1-1	1.5783	9-4	-2
52	55	Maryland	3-0	2.296487	8-4
53	41	Ball State	2-1	2.663439	9-3	-1
54	44	Boise State	2-1	2.990583	8-4
55	60	Washington State	2-1	3.021574	5-7
56	67	Oregon State	2-1	3.457875	6-6	+1
57	64	North Texas	2-1	3.56157	8-4	+1
58	69	Troy	2-1	3.944656	7-5	-1
59	75	Illinois	2-1	4.414003	6-6	+1
60	57	Wyoming	2-1	5.671739	8-4
61	71	Louisiana-Monroe	2-1	5.898058	7-5
62	56	Duke	2-1	6.306593	6-6	-1
63	59	Rutgers	2-1	6.500745	7-5	-1
64	36	Northern Illinois	2-0	6.593162	10-3	-1	2.1
65	50	Tulsa	1-2	7.372415	7-5	-1
66	63	Ohio	2-1	7.436894	9-3
67	58	Michigan State	3-0	7.48353	6-6	-1
68	85	Louisiana-Lafayette	1-2	7.929828	7-5
69	76	UAB	0-2	8.432336	6-6	+1
70	65	Kansas State	2-1	8.666227	5-7
71	68	East Carolina	2-1	8.710895	7-5
72	80	Arkansas State	2-1	8.711397	7-5
73	45	Toledo	1-2	9.014112	6-6	-1
74	72	Florida Atlantic	1-2	9.18216	6-6	-1
75	62	UTSA	1-2	9.310071	5-7	-1
76	66	Kentucky	1-2	9.870587	3-9	-1
77	83	Virginia	1-1	10.0058	4-8
78	70	Minnesota	3-0	11.79476	5-7	-1
79	81	San Jose State	1-1	11.87985	6-6
80	104	Pittsburgh	1-1	12.45495	3-9	+1
81	87	Iowa	2-1	12.52334	5-7	+1
82	78	Western Kentucky	1-2	12.97358	6-6	-2
83	99	Arkansas	3-0	13.52986	4-8	+1
84	89	Middle Tennessee	2-1	13.67389	6-6	+1
85	82	Fresno State	2-0	13.76042	8-5
86	95	Tulane	2-1	13.99244	5-7	+2
87	79	North Carolina State	2-0	14.22065	5-7	-1
88	93	Colorado	2-0	14.30928	4-8
89	90	Wake Forest	1-2	14.46135	3-9
90	74	Colorado State	1-2	14.7685	5-8	-1
91	110	Kansas	1-1	14.96876	4-8	+1
92	96	Memphis	0-2	15.22849	5-7
93	86	Boston College	2-1	15.67904	4-8	-1
94	92	Hawaii	0-2	16.50859	5-7	+1
95	97	West Virginia	2-1	16.61066	4-8
96	100	Kent State	1-2	16.61418	4-8
97	88	Army	1-2	16.89629	5-7	-1
98	101	Texas State	2-0	17.31595	6-6
99	77	Buffalo	1-2	17.59567	6-6	-1
100	106	South Alabama	2-1	18.01978	5-7	+1
101	105	Western Michigan	0-3	18.05468	4-8	+1
102	102	Purdue	1-2	18.61347	2-10
103	114	Akron	1-2	18.70573	4-8	+1
104	91	Nevada	1-2	18.85208	5-7
105	107	California	1-2	19.11627	2-10
106	111	UTEP	1-1	19.13717	4-8	+2
107	84	Temple	0-3	20.46674	3-9	-2
108	94	New Mexico	1-2	20.53191	5-7	-1
109	98	Southern Methodist	1-1	23.09294	3-9	-1
110	103	Louisiana Tech	1-2	24.26985	3-9	-1
111	116	Air Force	1-2	25.33013	4-8	+2
112	113	Eastern Michigan	1-2	25.63472	2-10
113	118	Iowa State	0-2	27.99398	0-12	-1
114	115	UNLV	1-2	28.65949	4-8	+1
115	119	Connecticut	0-2	28.92988	2-10	+1
116	108	Southern Miss	0-3	29.24104	1-11	-1
117	117	Central Michigan	1-2	30.69983	3-9
118	124	Idaho	0-3	31.50725	2-10	+1
119	112	San Diego State	0-2	32.58114	2-10	-1
120	120	Massachusetts	0-3	33.31555	1-11	-1
121	121	South Florida	0-3	34.61565	1-11
122	122	Miami (OH)	0-2	35.17579	1-11
123	109	Florida International	0-3	35.32884	1-11	-2
124	123	New Mexico State	0-3	40.33437	1-11	-1
125	125	Georgia State	0-3	54.08239	0-12

After passing that test in College Station, the Crimson Tide can coast through until November, when they face LSU, one of only 2 ranked teams remaining on their schedule. Alabama has the weakest schedule in the SEC this year, partly because they can't face themselves in conference play, but they also didn't draw South Carolina or Georgia until the SEC title game. Their non-conference schedule is among the weakest in the nation, without a single opponent projected to finish with a winning record.

Sure, Florida State hasn't played anybody yet, but the teams they have played are still dazed by what they saw. It's still a month until their first real test, when they travel to Clemson, but that should give freshman quarterback Jameis Winston plenty of time to get comfortable enough to be able to pull off a big win on the road.

Midway through the 2nd quarter, UCLA was trailing Nebraska 21-3 and didn't look like they belonged on the same field as the Huskers, but then the Bruins woke up, and by the end of the game, it was Nebraska that looked like they didn't belong. UCLA scored 38 straight points against the favored home team, including 28 points in the 3rd quarter, the most ever for an opponent at Memorial Stadium. The Pac 12 race just got a little more complicated.

The odds are still saying that we are likely to end the season with 3 undefeated teams, most likely all coming from power conferences. Alabama appears to have locked up one of those spots, but with Oregon, Baylor, Louisville, Florida State, and Oklahoma State all looking like they could finish unblemished, there will be plenty of argument over which team belongs in the national title game this year.