Thursday, September 19, 2013

NFL Rankings and Weekend Predictions

It's two weeks into the NFL season, and two teams have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, rising far above all other teams and positioning themselves for a potential Super Bowl matchup. There are plenty of other good teams, though, and they don't want to be left out of the conversation either. Here are my rankings for each team, along with their predicted final records:

Rank
LW
Team
Rec
Rating
Pred
Change
Undef %
1
2
Seattle
2-0
-20.05
15-1
+1
42.6
2
1
Denver
2-0
-16.976
15-1

42.1
3
8
Green Bay
1-1
-8.18229
11-5
+2

4
3
San Francisco
1-1
-5.40874
10-6
-2

5
6
Chicago
2-0
-3.90614
10-6
-1
0.1
6
9
Cincinnati
1-1
-3.80648
10-6
-1

7
5
New Orleans
2-0
-3.21778
10-6


8
11
Miami
2-0
-3.15139
11-5

0.2
9
4
Carolina
0-2
-2.91064
8-8
-3

10
7
Detroit
1-1
-1.91812
9-7
-2

11
16
Minnesota
0-2
-1.14713
7-9
+1

12
13
Atlanta
1-1
-1.01818
8-8


13
18
Houston
2-0
-0.28726
10-6
+1

14
12
Tennessee
1-1
0.233391
9-7
-2

15
23
Arizona
1-1
2.158121
7-9
+2

16
20
Baltimore
1-1
2.198645
8-8
+1

17
10
Philadelphia
1-1
2.675085
7-9
-3

18
14
Dallas
1-1
2.891516
7-9
-1

19
22
Saint Louis
1-1
3.622835
6-10


20
27
San Diego
1-1
3.650925
8-8
+3

21
17
Kansas City
2-0
3.672821
9-7


22
19
New England
2-0
3.993097
8-8


23
28
Tampa Bay
0-2
4.040033
5-11
+1

24
15
NY Giants
0-2
4.107227
6-10


25
25
Buffalo
1-1
5.258464
7-9
+1

26
24
Pittsburgh
0-2
5.961608
6-10


27
21
Washington
0-2
6.001993
5-11


28
30
NY Jets
1-1
6.254811
7-9
+1

29
26
Indianapolis
1-1
6.586742
6-10
-1

30
31
Cleveland
0-2
9.155077
5-11
+1

31
29
Oakland
1-1
12.80195
4-12
-1

32
32
Jacksonville
0-2
26.93434
0-16



Seattle took over the top spot from Denver this week after wasting the 49ers 29-3 on Sunday night. San Francisco may be the defending NFC champs, but they are no longer even the favorite to win their own division, as Seattle has looked unstoppable so far. It's not a huge surprise to me, since I had Seattle as the #1 team at the end of last season and again to start this year, and with a year of experience under their belts, they should fare better in this year's playoffs.

Green Bay walked all over the Washington Redskins on Sunday, going up 31-0 early in the third quarter before turning off the jets and allowing the Skins to make the score look respectable. Aaron Rodgers had over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first half alone, making him the top QB of week 2 easily.

Miami moved to 2-0 this week and entered the top 10 for the first time in recent memory thanks to an upset of the Colts that few saw coming. I said the Colts were overrated all through last season, and I still am not changing my tune this year, so the Dolphins win was my most confident upset pick of the season so far. Is Miami good enough to win the division? If the Patriots don't wake up, they may be the only ones who can.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

(3) Clemson at North Carolina State - Tigers by 17

Kansas City at Philadelphia - Eagles by 4

Friday

Boise State at Fresno State - Broncos by 6

Saturday

North Carolina at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 19
Florida International at (7) Louisville - Cardinals by 52
Vanderbilt at Massachusetts - Commodores by 31
San Jose State at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 5
Florida A&M at (4) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 44
Marshall at Virginia Tech - Hokies by 5
Wake Forest at Army - Black Knights by 3
Toledo at Central Michigan - Rockets by 17
Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic - Owls by 9
Western Michigan at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 11
Louisiana Tech at Kansas - Jayhawks by 14
North Texas at (9) Georgia - Bulldogs by 26
Pittsburgh at Duke - Blue Devils by 11
Tulane at Syracuse - Orange by 21
Ball State at Eastern Michigan - Cardinals by 18
Austin Peay at Ohio - Bobcats by 29
Jacksonville State at Georgia State - Gamecocks by 18
Northwestern State at UAB - Blazers by 28
Houston vs. Rice - Cougars by 1
Idaho State at (17) Washington - Huskies by 53
Utah State at USC - Aggies by 5
Tennessee at (19) Florida - Gators by 15
Maine at (18) Northwestern - Wildcats by 45
Michigan State at (22) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 16
West Virginia at Maryland - Terrapins by 19
South Dakota State at Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 38
Arkansas at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 12
Murray State at Bowling Green - Falcons by 39
Kent State at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 27
Virginia Military at Virginia - Cavaliers by 26
Purdue at (24) Wisconsin - Badgers by 36
Cincinnati at Miami (OH) - Bearcats by 31
Louisiana-Monroe at (20) Baylor - Bears by 40
Arkansas State at Memphis - Red Wolves by 2
Bethune-Cookman at (8) Florida State - Seminoles by 58
Louisiana-Lafayette at Akron - Ragin Cajuns by 6
Morgan State at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 23
Southern Methodist at (10) Texas A&M - Aggies by 44
Colorado State at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 51
Savannah State at (16) Miami (FL) - Hurricanes by 49
Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 30
Texas State at (25) Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 29
(23) Arizona State at (5) Stanford - Sun Devils by 3
Oregon State at San Diego State - Beavers by 24
Troy at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 9
Auburn at (6) LSU - LSU Tigers by 25
(15) Michigan at Connecticut - Wolverines by 28
Missouri at Indiana - Hoosiers by 2
Kansas State at Texas - Longhorns by 17
UTSA at UTEP - Roadrunners by 5
Hawaii at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 3
Western Illinois at UNLV - Rebels by 8
Utah at BYU - Cougars by 5
Wyoming at Air Force - Cowboys by 15
New Mexico State at (13) UCLA - Bruins by 65
Idaho at Washington State - Cougars by 33

Sunday

Arizona at New Orleans - Saints by 8
Green Bay at Cincinnati - Packers by 1
Saint Louis at Dallas - Cowboys by 4
San Diego at Tennessee - Titans by 6
Cleveland at Minnesota - Vikings by 13
Tampa Bay at New England - Patriots by 3
Detroit at Washington - Lions by 5
NY Giants at Carolina - Panthers by 10
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 1
Atlanta at Miami - Dolphins by 5
Buffalo at NY Jets - Jets by 2
Indianapolis at San Francisco - 49ers by 15
Jacksonville at Seattle - Seahawks by 50
Chicago at Pittsburgh - Bears by 7

Monday

Oakland at Denver - Broncos by 33

Most Confident Against the Spread

College

1. Duke
2. Florida Atlantic
3. Northern Illinois
4. Georgia Tech
5. Maryland
6. Oregon State
7. Texas
8. Utah State
9. Wyoming
10. Arizona State

NFL

1. Seattle
2. Denver
3. Carolina
4. Minnesota
5. Detroit

Prediction Results

College Football: 50-10 (.833) 170-40 overall (.810)
Upsets: 5-4 (.556) 11-16 overall (.407)
Vs. Spread: 6-4 (.600)
NFL: 11-5 (.688) 20-12 overall (.625)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 2-6 overall (.250)
Vs. Spread: 4-1 (.800)

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