Top 100 NBA Players: #22

David Robinson

(Kalb: #20, Simmons: #28, BBR: #7)

David Robinson was one of the most impressive physical specimens to ever take the court to play basketball, and at one point he was widely considered to be the successor to Michael Jordan as the superstar of the NBA. According to Bill Simmons, "if we ever start cloning basketball players someday, Jordan, LeBron and Robinson will be one-two-three in some order."

Robinson was so highly though of early in his career that when the time came to pick the players for the first Dream Team to compete in the 1992 Olympics, Robinson was the committee's unanimous #4 choice, behind only Jordan, Bird, and Magic. At that point, Robinson had completed only 3 season in the NBA, during which time he had been named the unanimous Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and two-time All-NBA First Team and All-Defensive First Team center.

Robinson's peak corresponded with Michael Jordan's first retirement, which made many believe that he would become a completely dominant force and start to make a collection of MVP's and NBA titles, but Hakeem Olajuwon took advantage of Jordan leaving and finally earned two titles of his own before MJ returned. From 1994-96, Robinson was easily one of the top 3 players in the league, but was never the unquestioned superstar. Here are his stats compared with other top players from those seasons:

Robinson (1994) - 29.8 pts, 10.7 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.7 stl, 3.3 blk, .507 FG%, .749 FT%
Olajuwon (1994) - 27.3 pts, 11.9 reb, 3.6 ast, 1.6 stl, 3.7 blk, .528 FG%, .716 FT%

Robinson (1995) - 27.6 pts, 10.8 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.7 stl, 3.2 blk, .530 FG%, .774 FT%
O'Neal (1995) - 29.3 pts, 11.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 0.9 stl, 2.4 blk, .583 FG%, .533 FT%

Robinson (1996) - 25.0 pts, 12.2 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.4 stl, 3.3 blk, .516 FG%, .761 FT%
Jordan (1996) - 30.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.3 ast, 2.2 stl, 0.5 blk, .495 FG%, .834 FT%

None of those seasons had a clear top player, but in each case I would place Robinson one step below his nearest competition due to their higher level of playoff success in those seasons. His peak came to abrupt end the next season, when back and foot injuries limited him to only 6 games and caused the Spurs to miss the playoffs for the first time since his arrival.

In a way that season was also a blessing in disguise, as their horrible record earned them the top pick in the NBA Draft, which gave them Tim Duncan, the perfect complement to Robinson on the inside. That combination gave the Spurs their first two championships, the first with Duncan narrowly edging Robinson for the Finals MVP, and the second coming by a much wider margin.

One of the signature moments of Robinson's career came on the closing day of the 1994 season, when he and Shaq were in a tight race for the scoring title in the first season someone besides Michael Jordan was sitting at the top in 8 years. Shaw had put up 32 points earlier in the day, so Robinson knew exactly what he needed to do, and he had the perfect opponent, the Los Angeles Clippers. He scored 71 points that day, destroying Gervin's old team record of 63 and taking the scoring title on the very last day.

Robinson was never the league superstar like Mikan was, but Robinson maintained a high level of play for a little longer, then settled in as a very good player for several years and won a couple championships, while Mikan retired as soon as he was no longer the big star. The fact that he was able to excel in both roles, and how good he was right from the start, gave him this spot just ahead of the first dominant big man.

NFL Rankings - 27 Dec

We're down to the final week, and three playoff spots are still up for grabs, and there are 7 teams still in the running for those coveted postseason berths. Every team with a winning record has a chance to get in, although some (like Tennessee) need a lot of help and luck to get there, while others, like Dallas and the Giants, just have to win to get in. Remember, last season's champion, Green Bay, didn't get their playoff berth until the final week of the season, so we could be looking at a potential Super Bowl Champion grabbing their spot this week, although I think it's quite unlikely. Here are my rankings through 15 games, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (12-3) -11.61 (4)
2. Green Bay (14-1) -10.67 (1)

3. San Francisco (12-3) -9.07 (2)
4. New England (12-3) -8.45 (3)

5. Philadelphia (7-8) -6.76 (9)
6. Detroit (10-5) -5.91 (14)
7. Pittsburgh (11-4) -4.92 (6)

8. Atlanta (9-6) -3.83 (8)
9. Baltimore (11-4) -3.56 (5)
10. Houston (10-5) -3.09 (10)
11. Seattle (7-8) -2.72 (11)
12. Dallas (8-7) -2.07 (12)
13. NY Giants (8-7) -1.31 (18)
14. Carolina (6-9) -1.03 (16)
15. Miami (5-10) -0.99 (15)
16. San Diego (7-8) -0.89 (7)
17. Cincinnati (9-6) -0.57 (17)
18. NY Jets (8-7) 0.03 (13)
19. Chicago (7-8) 0.37 (20)

20. Arizona (7-8) 1.66 (19)
21. Washington (5-10) 2.37 (21)
22. Tennessee (8-7) 2.54 (22)
23. Buffalo (6-9) 3.10 (24)

24. Oakland (8-7) 4.98 (25)
25. Minnesota (3-12) 5.04 (29)
26. Cleveland (4-11) 5.11 (26)
27. Jacksonville (4-11) 5.70 (27)
28. Denver (8-7) 6.36 (23)

29. Kansas City (6-9) 8.76 (28)

30. Indianapolis (2-13) 9.85 (30)

31. Saint Louis (2-13) 11.01 (31)

32. Tampa Bay (4-11) 12.44 (32)

Detroit clinched a playoff berth and eliminated San Diego from contention with a blowout victory on Saturday, a game that was out of hand before halftime. 4 of their losses have come against the top 8 teams, and all 4 are teams they could face again in the playoffs.

One of those losses was to New Orleans, which has not lost since October and is hoping to get a first-round bye, which would also require a loss by the 49ers. During their 7-game winning streak, 5 wins have come against potential playoff teams, so they are beating the teams they need to in order to reclaim their Super Bowl crown.

Philadelphia also entered the top 5 this week, even though they were eliminated from the playoffs during the 1st quarter, when the Giants finished off the Jets. The Eagles have really started coming together, but it was too little too late for Andy Reid's squad this year.

The Giants win over the Jets did a lot more than render the Eagles game meaningless. It also made it difficult for their stadium-mates to return to the playoffs, and put them in control of their own destiny to claim the NFC East's playoff spot. The winner of this week's game against Dallas will get the #4 seed and a home playoff game, so the Giants have to be happy they're at home again this weekend.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Sunday

Detroit at Green Bay - Packers by 9
San Francisco at Saint Louis - 49ers by 17
NY Jets at Miami - Dolphins by 4
Chicago at Minnesota - Bears by 1
Buffalo at New England - Patriots by 15
Carolina at New Orleans - Saints by 14
Washington at Philadelphia - Eagles by 12
Indianapolis at Jacksonville - Jaguars by 7
Tennessee at Houston - Texans by 9
Seattle at Arizona - Seahawks by 1
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Falcons by 19
Baltimore at Cincinnati - Bengals by 1
Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Steelers by 7
Kansas City at Denver - Broncos by 6
San Diego at Oakland - Chargers by 3
Dallas at NY Giants - Giants by 2

Prediction Results

NFL: 11-5 (.688) 156-84 overall (.650)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 23-20 overall (.535)

College Basketball Rankings - 26 Dec

There weren't many games this week because of the holiday weekend, during which there were only 4 games, all played in Hawaii, but the games that were played had a very big impact on the national scene. There are still 6 teams that haven't lost, but we could be seeing at least one losing on Saturday. Here are the updated rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (USA)
1. (1) Wisconsin (1-0) (11-2) -21.57 (11)

2. (23) Indiana (2-0) (12-0) -18.90 (15)
3. (6) North Carolina (2-0) (11-2) -18.85 (6)

4. (5) Ohio State (2-0) (12-1) -17.64 (2)
5. (2) Syracuse (2-0) (13-0) -17.53 (1)
6. (4) Kentucky (2-0) (11-1) -17.49 (3)

7. (3) Marquette (1-1) (11-1) -15.76 (13)
8. (7) Baylor (3-0) (12-0) -15.56 (7)

9. (17) Florida (2-0) (10-2) -14.35 (10)
10. (19) Creighton (2-0) (10-1) -13.85 (19)
11. (11) UNLV (2-0) (13-2) -13.70 (20)
12. (18) Michigan State (2-0) (11-2) -13.44 (17)
13. (10) BYU (2-0) (10-3) -12.76 (34)
14. (8) Missouri (1-0) (12-0) -12.74 (8)
15. (9) Kansas (1-1) (8-3) -12.61 (18)
16. (14) Duke (1-0) (10-1) -12.50 (5)
17. (21) Iona (1-0) (10-2) -12.45 (NR)
18. (13) Ohio (2-0) (11-2) -12.03 (32)
19. (NR) Wichita State (0-0) (9-2) -11.56 (39)
20. (NR) Georgetown (1-0) (10-1) -11.55 (12)
21. (NR) Saint Louis (1-0) (11-1) -11.46 (29)
22. (15) Saint Mary's (3-1) (11-2) -11.45 (32)
23. (20) Texas (0-1) (9-3) -11.15 (NR)
24. (NR) Harvard (1-0) (10-1) -11.14 (23)
25. (22) California (1-1) (10-3) -11.11 (NR)

Dropped Out

(24) Virginia (1-0) (10-1) -10.95 (24)
(16) Murray State (1-0) (13-0) -10.10 (21)
(12) Long Beach State (3-1) (7-6) -9.53 (NR)
(25) Louisville (2-0) (12-0) -8.04 (4)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
Big East - 3
ACC - 2
SEC - 2
MVC - 2
WCC - 2
MWC - 1
MAAC - 1
MAC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Ivy - 1
Pac 12 - 1

Two undefeated teams fell from my top 25 this week. Murray State beat Tennessee-Martin, but didn't do it as convincingly as they needed to for the strength of schedule hit they took by playing the 3-11 Skyhawks. Louisville, who is #4 in the national rankings, fell after recording two close victories over College of Charleston and Western Kentucky, neither of which is among the top 100 teams in the country, and neither of which is likely to play in March.

Wisconsin needed to win big over Mississippi Valley State in order to maintain the top spot in my rankings, and they did just that, winning 79-45 and giving the Big Ten 3 spots in my top 4. The test for the Badgers begin next week, when they play Michigan State and Michigan during the same week.

Indiana is undefeated for now, but their next three games are all against ranked teams, and there's a good chance they'll end up with a loss at some point in there. The Hoosiers host Ohio State on Saturday, and though they will likely be underdogs, I am picking them to pull off another top-2 upset to go along with their last-second victory over Kentucky.

Florida moved into the top ten in my rankings and the national polls after two more big victories in a row raised their record to 10-2, with the only losses coming to Ohio State and Syracuse on the road. Florida should challenge Kentucky for the conference title, which could make their matchup on March 4 to end the season extra exciting.

Creighton won a game over a Big Ten team for the second time this season, beating Northwestern by 8 points to maintain their single-loss record. This week they play a tough Missouri State team, then head to Wichita State to face their toughest opponent of the season, which could go a long way in determining the Missouri Valley champ.

Iona is in the middle of a month-long road trip, which makes their 10-2 record even more impressive. They haven't beaten anybody yet that would get them any national attention, but wins at Vermont and Richmond are never easy, and their early blowout against Maryland shows what they are capable of.

Predictions


Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

(11) Wisconsin at Nebraska - Badgers by 16
(22) Pittsburgh at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 9
Maryland-Eastern Shore at (24) Virginia - Cavaliers by 35
Texas Southern at Saint Louis - Billikens by 27

Wednesday

Seton Hall at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 19
Northwestern at (2) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 21
Lamar at (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 19
(12) Georgetown at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 5
(14) Mississippi State at (7) Baylor - Bears by 18
(9) Connecticut at South Florida - Huskies by 1
(15) Indiana at (17) Michigan State - Spartans by 3
Missouri State at (19) Creighton - Bluejays by 17
Central Arkansas at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 38
Wichita State at Bradley - Shockers by 5

Thursday

Elon at (6) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 33
(10) Florida at Rutgers - Gators by 6
Vanderbilt at (13) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 22
Penn State at (16) Michigan - Wolverines by 17
Howard at (18) Kansas - Jayhawks by 32
(23) Harvard at Boston College - Crimson by 13
BYU at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 8
Iona at Hofstra - Gaels by 9
USC at California - Golden Bears by 21

Friday

Western Michigan at (5) Duke - Blue Devils by 21
(8) Missouri at Old Dominion - Tigers by 7
(22) Murray State at Eastern Illinois - Racers by 4
Kennesaw State at Ohio - Bobcats by 33

Saturday

(2) Ohio State at (15) Indiana - Hoosiers by 10
(4) Louisville at (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 18
Saint Johns at (9) Connecticut - Huskies by 26
Yale at (10) Florida - Gators by 23
Iowa at (11) Wisconsin - Badgers by 32
Providence at (12) Georgetown - Hoyas by 21
Utah State at (14) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 13
(17) Michigan State at Nebraska - Spartans by 7
North Dakota at (18) Kansas - Jayhawks by 28
(19) Creighton at Wichita State - Shockers by 7
(20) UNLV at Hawaii - Rebels by 13
Saint Joseph at (23) Harvard - Crimson by 14
Howard at (25) Kansas State - Wildcats by 30
San Diego at BYU - Cougars by 31
Saint Mary's at Pepperdine - Gaels by 4
Rice at Texas - Longhorns by 21
UCLA at California - Golden Bears by 19
Saint Louis at New Mexico - Lobos by 8

Sunday

(1) Syracuse at DePaul - Orange by 9
Pennsylvania at (5) Duke - Blue Devils by 24
Monmouth at (6) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 46
Villanova at (13) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 21
Minnesota at (16) Michigan - Wolverines by 10
Cincinnati at (22) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 6

Prediction Results

College Basketball: 35-2 (.946) 122-14 overall (.897)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 8-2 overall (.800)

NFL Rankings - 20 Dec

It was one of the craziest weeks in recent memory, as undefeated Green Bay lost to a horrible Chiefs team, winless Indianapolis beat up on a decent Titans team, and the 49ers-Steelers game was delayed twice by power outages. The result is that Green Bay is no longer the absolute #1 team in the league, which means that several other teams had a chance to make a case for the top spot, and a few stood out. Here are the updated rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. Green Bay (13-1) -10.13 (1)
2. San Francisco (11-3) -9.48 (7)
3. New England (11-3) -9.13 (5)
4. New Orleans (11-3) -9.04 (2)

5. Baltimore (10-4) -5.75 (3)
6. Pittsburgh (10-4) -5.54 (6)
7. San Diego (7-7) -4.942 (11)
8. Atlanta (9-5) -4.938 (10)
9. Philadelphia (6-8) -4.63 (18)
10. Houston (10-4) -4.62 (4)

11. Seattle (7-7) -3.57 (20)
12. Dallas (8-6) -2.89 (13)
13. NY Jets (8-6) -2.83 (8)
14. Detroit (9-5) -2.67 (9)

15. Miami (5-9) -0.76 (16)

16. Carolina (5-9) 0.35 (22)
17. Cincinnati (8-6) 0.41 (15)
18. NY Giants (7-7) 0.49 (17)
19. Arizona (7-7) 1.06 (21)
20. Chicago (7-7) 1.36 (12)
21. Washington (5-9) 1.77 (26)
22. Tennessee (7-7) 2.31 (14)

23. Denver (8-6) 3.52 (19)

24. Buffalo (5-9) 5.20 (24)
25. Oakland (7-7) 5.80 (25)
26. Cleveland (4-10) 5.94 (28)
27. Jacksonville (4-10) 6.07 (23)
28. Kansas City (6-8) 7.06 (29)
29. Minnesota (2-12) 7.29 (27)

30. Indianapolis (1-13) 10.17 (32)
31. Saint Louis (2-12) 10.37 (31)

32. Tampa Bay (4-10) 11.75 (30)

Seattle was the best team of the weekend, winning their third straight game by a margin of at least 17 points, with this one coming in Chicago against a team they are fighting with for playoff position. They have kept themselves alive in the playoff race, but their final two games will both be tough ones, with division rivals San Francisco and Arizona on the schedule, both with plenty to play for. If they beat the 49ers, the game against the Cardinals could actually give a wild card berth to the winner, if you can believe that.

The other big winner of the weekend was Philadelphia, which stayed alive in the division race with their second straight victory, this one a blowout of the New York Jets, who were hoping to keep themselves alive for their own division title. They can't take a wild card spot, but it's not inconceivable to see them pass the Cowboys and Giants in the final two weeks to steal the division and make people forget about their struggles throughout the season.

San Francisco bounced back from an embarrassing loss to the Arizona Cardinals with a shellacking of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football, which kept them in the fight for the second seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. The two power outages didn't seem to faze the Niners, who never trailed Pittsburgh, a team that had a chance to take control of their division race.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Houston at Indianapolis - Texans by 12

Saturday

Arizona at Cincinnati - Bengals by 3
Denver at Buffalo - Bills by 1
Jacksonville at Tennessee - Titans by 7
Oakland at Kansas City - Chiefs by 1
Miami at New England - Patriots by 11
NY Giants vs. NY Jets - Jets by 3
Saint Louis at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 19
Minnesota at Washington - Redskins by 8
Tampa Bay at Carolina - Panthers by 14
Cleveland at Baltimore - Ravens by 14
San Diego at Detroit - Lions by 1
Philadelphia at Dallas - Cowboys by 1
San Francisco at Seattle - 49ers by 3

Sunday

Chicago at Green Bay - Packers by 14

Monday

Atlanta at New Orleans - Saints by 7

Prediction Results

NFL: 9-7 (.563) 145-79 overall (.647)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 22-19 overall (.537)

College Basketball Rankings - 19 Dec

Two more undefeated teams have fallen, leaving us with only 7, but the majority of the top-ranked teams had no problem this week. Even with very few ranked teams losing, there has been plenty of movement in my rankings, because there are always shifts in strength of schedule happening with the conclusion of each game. Here are the updated rankings, with my picks for the week afterward, and gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Wisconsin (2-0) (10-2) -21.89 (14)

2. (6) Syracuse (1-0) (11-0) -19.24 (1)

3. (4) Marquette (1-0) (10-0) -17.51 (10)
4. (3) Kentucky (1-0) (9-1) -17.29 (3)
5. (5) Ohio State (2-0) (10-1) -16.66 (2)
6. (2) North Carolina (1-0) (9-2) -16.40 (6)

7. (10) Baylor (2-0) (9-0) -15.22 (7)
8. (17) Missouri (2-0) (11-0) -14.89 (8)
9. (14) Kansas (0-0) (7-2) -14.53 (11)
10. (11) BYU (0-1) (8-3) -14.38 (NR)
11. (23) UNLV (2-0) (11-2) -14.24 (23)
12. (15) Long Beach State (0-0) (4-5) -13.24 (NR)
13. (NR) Ohio (1-0) (9-1) -13.12 (NR)
14. (12) Duke (0-0) (9-1) -12.98 (5)
15. (20) Saint Mary's (3-0) (8-1) -12.59 (35)
16. (7) Murray State (2-0) (12-0) -12.53 (22)
17. (19) Florida (1-0) (8-2) -12.38 (12)
18. (13) Michigan State (1-0) (9-2) -12.37 (20)
19. (NR) Creighton (1-0) (8-1) -12.16 (21)
20. (NR) Texas (2-0) (9-2) -12.14 (NR)
21. (NR) Iona (2-0) (9-2) -12.13 (NR)
22. (NR) California (1-0) (9-2) -12.03 (27)
23. (8) Indiana (1-0) (10-0) -12.00 (18)
24. (NR) Virginia (1-0) (9-1) -11.88 (29)
25. (18) Louisville (1-0) (10-0) -11.77 (4)

Dropped Out

(22) Harvard (0-0) (9-1) -11.75 (25)
(21) Marshall (1-0) (7-2) -11.26 (NR)
(9) Stanford (1-0) (9-1) -10.95 (33)
(25) Georgetown (1-0) (9-1) -10.26 (16)
(16) Southern Miss (1-0) (8-2) -10.19 (NR)
(24) Memphis (0-1) (5-4) -10.02 (34)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
Big East - 3
ACC - 3
SEC - 2
WCC - 2
MWC - 1
Big West - 1
MAC - 1
OVC - 1
MVC - 1
MAAC - 1
Pac 12 - 1

13 different conferences are now represented in the top 25, with only 4 conferences placing more than 2 teams in my rankings. Conference USA is the big loser this week, with all 3 teams it had ranked last week falling from my top 25. The Ivy League also lost its representative, but just barely, as Harvard is currently sitting at #26 and just .02 rating points behind Louisville for the final spot.

Syracuse separated themselves from the pursuit pack this week and set their sights firmly on #1 Wisconsin with a big win on the road at NC State, which was especially important because it was the first time the Orange had left the state of New York all season. Now that they've shown they can beat a decent team on the road, they should be able to stay undefeated until they start conference play, with fellow undefeated Marquette coming to visit in early January.

Missouri moved into the top 10 this week after winning two straight by 37 and 38 points, even though neither was against a good team. Their biggest win so far is against Cal, and their only decent opponent in the next month is Illinois, so they'll need to keep winning big to overcome the weak schedule ahead of them.

UNLV moved up big in the rankings following a huge win over Illinois in Chicago. The Rebels have lost twice so far this season, at #1 Wisconsin, and at #27 Wichita State, and since they don't visit another W team until February (Wyoming), they could be in for a long winning streak.

Ohio had a huge win this week at Wright State, raising their overall record to 9-1, with the only loss coming on the road against undefeated Louisville. They don't play another ranked team this year, so they'll have to be pretty close to perfect the rest of the way if they want to stay up in the rankings throughout the season.

Texas joined the three top 10 Big 12 teams among the top 25 this week after they obliterated Nicholls State 93-40 on Tuesday. Unfortunately, their stay in the rankings might not last long, as they're visiting North Carolina on Wednesday, and unless they keep it close, they won't be able to maintain this spot.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Bucknell at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 26
Lamar at (2) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 19
Samford at (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 36
Charleston at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 22
Saint Francis (PA) at (13) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 23
Buffalo at BYU - Cougars by 17
Eastern Washington at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 20
Ohio at Northern Iowa - Panthers by 4

Wednesday

Texas at (6) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 13
Tennessee-Martin at (22) Murray State - Racers by 30
Iona at William & Mary - Gaels by 20
Virginia at Seattle - Cavaliers by 9

Thursday

Tulane at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 27
Miami-Ohio at (2) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 27
Loyola-Maryland at (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 24
Saint Mary's at (7) Baylor - Bears by 11
(24) Illinois at (8) Missouri - Tigers by 21
Fairfield at (9) Connecticut - Huskies by 17
Milwaukee at (10) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 22
(11) Kansas at USC - Jayhawks by 7
Florida State at (12) Florida - Gators by 17
Long Beach State vs. (15) Xavier - 49ers by 9
Memphis at (16) Georgetown - Hoyas by 9
Northwestern State at (17) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 17
UMBC at (18) Indiana - Hoosiers by 39
Bradley at (19) Michigan - Wolverines by 13
Lehigh at (20) Michigan State - Spartans by 13
Northwestern at (21) Creighton - Bluejays by 17
Florida Atlantic at (25) Harvard - Crimson by 19
California-Santa Barbara at BYU - Cougars by 18

Friday

Western Kentucky at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 30
West Virginia at (7) Baylor - Bears by 18
Wagner at (13) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 7
Mississippi Valley State at (14) Wisconsin - Badgers by 38
California at (23) UNLV - Rebels by 11
Missouri State at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 12
North Carolina A&T at Ohio - Bobcats by 34

Prediction Results

College Basketball: 31-4 (.886) 87-12 overall (.879)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 6-2 (.750)

College Bowl Predictions (Part 2)

Here are my preview and predictions for the remaining bowl games, starting with those being played on December 30th and going clear through the BCS title game.

Upset picks are in italics.

December 30th

Fort Worth - BYU vs. Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 4

The same logic that has put Alabama at #2 in the national rankings would put Tulsa in the top 20 of the national rankings, since each of their losses were to opponents ranked in the top 10: Houston, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Boise State. BYU got better as the season went on, but the Golden Hurricane were good from the beginning of the season, and are more likely to have a good game against the Cougars, who are hoping that quarterback Riley Nelson is fully recovered from his lung and rib injuries suffered in November.

Pinstripe - Rutgers vs. Iowa State - Scarlet Knights by 5

Iowa State played one of the toughest schedules in the whole country this year, with 8 opponents who were or should have been ranked, and they won two of those, one which cost the Big 12 a berth in the title game, when they upset Oklahoma State in overtime. Rutgers, meanwhile, played a relatively weak schedule, but never found themselves out of a game and are playing much closer to home than the Cyclones.

Music City - Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest - Bulldogs by 12

Wake Forest looked good early in the season, especially after upsetting Florida State, sending the Seminoles to their third straight loss and knocking them from the national rankings, but it was just fool's gold, as the ACC was much weaker than most people knew. Mississippi State played a tough SEC schedule, and won two conference games only because they got to face Ole Miss and Kentucky. Luckily, the Bulldogs took care of all non-conference opponents, and this game shouldn't be any different.

Copper - Iowa vs. (14) Oklahoma - Sooners by 18

The Sooners certainly didn't expect to be playing this early in bowl season when they entered the season ranked #1, but after losing three games, the first one to unranked Texas Tech, they ended up out of the BCS picture. Iowa had another average year, winning most of their home games but struggling on the road, and unless Oklahoma doesn't show up ready to play, they should make easy work of the Hawkeyes.

December 31st

Texas - Northwestern vs. Texas A&M - Aggies by 21

This is another case of two 6-6 teams from very different conferences playing each other. A&M played a very tough conference schedule, then supplemented it with Arkansas, and built a reputation of building huge leads on good teams before choking in the second half. Northwestern, however, doesn't have the firepower to make that kind of comeback, so I don't see the Wildcats coming close in this one.

Sun - Georgia Tech vs. Utah - Utes by 6

The Yellowjackets were 6-0 in mid-October, a far cry from where they are now, sitting at 8-4 with losses to a pair of unranked conference opponents. Utah had a chance at the Pac 12 title game up until the final game of the season, when they choked against conference doormat Colorado. The Utes haven't beaten a ranked opponent yet, but Georgia Tech is heading the wrong direction at this point.

San Francisco - Illinois vs. UCLA - Bruins by 3

Illinois started the season 6-0, then lost 6 straight and lost Coach Ron Zook his job. UCLA lost consistently down the stretch and backed their way into the Pac 12 title game after a 50-0 loss to USC to close the regular season. They were allowed by play in a bowl despite a losing record because the final loss came in a title game, and they are also playing with a coach who has lost his job. The Bruins seem to have rallied around their fired coach, however, while the Illini have given up on theirs.

Liberty - Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt - Commodores by 6

Cincinnati may have tied for the Big East title this season, but Vanderbilt played much better opponents all season, which account for their 6 losses, while the Bearcats lost to other Big East schools. Vandy is not the type of team that gets to play in a bowl very often, so look for them to be very motivated to pull off an upset.

Peach - Virginia vs. (25) Auburn - Tigers by 4

Virginia made a major run at the ACC title before falling completely flat against rival Virginia Tech, and Auburn had a very up-and-down season following their championship run last year. All 5 of Auburn's losses came to teams that were in the running for the BCS on the final day of the season, and since Virginia was out a week earlier, the Tigers should take down another lesser opponent.

January 2nd

TicketCity - (19) Houston vs. (22) Penn State - Cougars by 19

The first matchup of ranked teams in the bowl season, this game pits one team that was so close to making the BCS before getting a case of the drops against one that is dealing with one of the biggest scandals in recent memory. Both lost coaches, with Coach Sumlin leaving Houston before the bowl game, and Coach Paterno being very publicly relieved of his duties several weeks ago. Look for Case Keenum to atone for his poor showing in the last game and go out a winner.

Gator - Ohio State vs. Florida - Gators by 8

Ohio State had a very difficult first season without Jim Tressel, losing Terrelle Pryor to the NFL before the season and dealing with numerous suspensions early in the season, but this wasn't the same Buckeye team that has been a fixture in the top 10 for a decade or more. Florida wasn't a powerhouse either, but they had some good performances against some of the top teams in the SEC, and they should win the Urban Meyer bowl with no problem.

Hall of Fame - (17) Michigan State vs. (16) Georgia - Spartans by 5

This is about the only time I'm picking against the SEC this year, but Georgia is not as good as their record looks. They failed to beat a team that ended the season ranked (unless you count overrated Auburn), while Michigan State beat Michigan and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks in the middle of the season and lost a close one to Wisconsin with the Big Ten title on the line. The Spartans are better, and Georgia will once again fail to beat a ranked team.

Citrus - (20) Nebraska vs. (9) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 4

South Carolina somehow held it together despite losing quarterback Stephen Garcia to another drug suspension and Marcus Lattimore to a knee injury, losing only to Arkansas and Auburn as they played the weakest schedule in the SEC, which sure helped out. Nebraska beat some good teams, but they also had some weeks where they didn't show up, like their huge losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. When in doubt, go with the SEC.

Rose - (10) Wisconsin vs. (5) Oregon - Ducks by 1

These two teams ended the season with identical records, but Oregon's losses were easier to understand, with close games against LSU and USC, both of which ended the season in the top 5, while Wisconsin lost to Michigan State and Ohio State. Both teams have awesome offenses, and we'll get to see two of the best running backs in the nation square off, with touchdown leader Montee Ball facing yardage leader LaMichael James. Should be a shootout, with the Ducks finishing in the top 5 yet again.

Fiesta - (4) Stanford vs. (3) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 9

If you pick teams based on who they lost to, you'd have to take the Cardinal, which only lost to Oregon, while Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State, but if you look at how they lost, you'd see that OK State's loss came in overtime after a tipped pass interception while Stanford was out of their game with the Ducks before the 4th quarter started. That is why the Cowboys will win, and why they should have played for the national title.

January 3rd

Sugar - (13) Michigan vs. (11) Virginia Tech - Wolverines by 11

Michigan, although they may not deserve a BCS berth, at least played some teams worth mentioning during the season, while the Hokies didn't play a single team worthy of rating among the top 25 at the end of the season, and their pair of losses to Clemson, neither of which was competitive, make it a joke that they're even here. Michigan in a blowout.

January 4th

Orange - (23) West Virginia vs. (15) Clemson - Mountaineers by 1

As bad as the Big East has been in recent years, the ACC was just as bad this year, but somehow nobody noticed that no ACC team had a win worth mentioning all season. Since neither team really deserves to be here, I'll take West Virginia in an upset.

January 6th

Cotton - (8) Kansas State vs. (6) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 4

The should-have-been-a-BCS-bowl is being played right in the middle of the big games, and matches up two teams that lost only twice, but all four losses were blowouts against top 10 teams. Because of that, it's kind of tough to read either of these teams, but Arkansas was a little closer to winning their blowouts than Kansas State, so I'll take the SEC team again.

January 7th

Birmingham - SMU vs. Pittsburgh - Panthers by 9

The Panthers may have lost their coach yesterday, but they are still a much better team than SMU, which had only one good win all year, somehow taking out TCU in overtime right in the middle of their schedule. Pitt didn't have a great victory this year, but they played well against several good teams, including Notre Dame and West Virginia, and they have plenty of time to regroup under a new coach.

January 8th

Mobile - Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois - Red Wolves by 4

These are two teams that would be included in a 16-team playoff if the NCAA would allow it. Arkansas State lost only twice early in the season, to Illinois (back when they were good) and Virginia Tech, before reeling off 9 straight wins to take the Sun Belt title easily. Northern Illinois had to make a big comeback to win the MAC, but they definitely deserve to be here, but they won't be the top dogs in this matchup.

January 9th

BCS - (2) Alabama vs. (1) LSU - Tigers by 10

This game doesn't make much sense to me. If LSU wins, they just prove once and for all that they are the best team in the SEC, which we already know. If Alabama wins, the two teams have split the season series 1-1, which makes them co-champions in my mind. If the SEC really wanted proof that their conference was better than the Big 12, which had a much better strength of schedule this year, it would have been advantageous to have them face their conference champion. The best we can hope for is that the Tigers win and give us the closest thing to a national champion we can get this year.

Hope you enjoyed my picks and predictions, and have a great bowl season.

College Bowl Predictions (Part 1)

There are 35 college bowl games, and they begin this Saturday and run clear until January 9th, when LSU and Alabama will face off in the so-called national championship game (more on that later). Between now and then, almost every team that finished with at least a .500 record (plus UCLA) will get a chance to show how good they are against a good team from another conference. Here are my picks for the winners of each game. Please note that I am using the original names for each bowl rather than those annoying corporate sponsor names.

Upset picks are in italics.

December 17th

New Mexico - Temple vs. Wyoming - Owls by 13


Temple is one of the best rushing teams in the country, with Bernard Pierce leading the way. Wyoming is one of the worst teams against the run in the country, which means this should be a blowout for the Owls.

Humanitarian - Ohio vs. Utah State - Bobcats by 1

Utah State has won five straight games to end the season, but none of them was in impressive fashion. Ohio won their division of the MAC and had a huge lead in the MAC championship game before letting Northern Illinois come back and win on a game-ending field goal. Should be a close game between two teams with no real bowl experience.

New Orleans - San Diego State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin' Cajuns by 6

San Diego State and Ronnie Hillman are a force on offense, making their second straight bowl appearance, and while last year they played at home in San Diego, this year they are heading to Louisiana, which happens to be the home state of their opponent, which is making its first bowl appearance in 41 years. Home field should be enough to win this one.

December 20th

St. Petersburg - Florida International vs. Marshall - Golden Panthers by 15

The team with the best record in Florida this season takes on a team that barely made the postseason in a game played in the state of Florida. The Golden Panthers will likely add to their school-record 8 wins against one of the weakest teams still playing.

December 21st

Poinsettia - (18) TCU vs. Louisiana Tech - Horned Frogs by 5

Everyone knows about TCU, how they upset Boise State after Coach Gary Patterson made one of the gutsiest calls in history by going for two points rather than one while trailing by a point in the final minute against the Broncos. Their opponents, the Bulldogs, have been largely overlooked, but they have won 7 straight games and wrapped up the WAC title a month ago, and the Frogs may be surprised at how tough this game will be, but I still don't expect them to blow it.

December 22nd

Las Vegas - Arizona State vs. (7) Boise State - Broncos by 10

Early in the season, this looked like a marquee matchup, maybe even a BCS matchup, but ASU closed the season with 4 straight losses when a win in any of the first 3 would have clinched them a berth in the Pac 12 title game. Meanwhile, Boise State lost a heartbreaker to TCU, which cost them the conference title and a guaranteed BCS berth. The Broncos are still an elite team, while the Sun Devils have lost their coach and their purpose, while Boise quarterback Kellen Moore has a chance to put his win record out of reach by pushing it to 50 in his career.

December 24th

Hawaii - Nevada vs. (21) Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 7

Take away two head-scratching losses to Marshall and UAB, and Southern Miss would be looking at a BCS opponent right now instead of the Wolf Pack, who were not nearly the team that beat Boise State last season after losing their quarterback and top running back to the NFL. Instead, they get the consolation prize of Hawaii on Christmas Eve, which probably isn't that bad.

December 26th

Independence - Missouri vs. North Carolina - Tigers by 8

Missouri was an average team from the most underrated conference, while North Carolina was an average team from the most overrated conference, which makes this matchup of 7-5 teams not as close as it looks on paper. Factor in the way each team finished the season, and this should be an easy win for the Tigers.

December 27th

Motor City - Western Michigan vs. Purdue - Broncos by 8

Don't underestimate Western Michigan, led by Jordan White, the top receiver in the nation, just because they play in the MAC. Purdue closed the season well, but they did it against some of the weaker opponents on the schedule, and since the Broncos' fans have a short drive across the state to Detroit, they should have plenty of support.

Queen City - Louisville vs. North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 1

Louisville started the season 2-4, then rallied to finish tied for the Big East title, while North Carolina State suffered greatly from the loss of Russell Wilson, but finished the season strong, coming back from a 27-point deficit in the final 18 minutes against Maryland with a 42-0 run to make themselves bowl eligible. Neither team has been that impressive this year, but NC State is happier to be here, and I expect them to win.

December 28th

Holiday - California vs. (24) Texas - Golden Bears by 1

Both Cal and Texas played in extremely difficult conferences this season, with both losing multiple games to top 10 teams and not really beating anybody worth talking about. They both have a chance to get a signature win at the end of the month, but Cal has been more consistent throughout the season.

Military - Toledo vs. Air Force - Rockets by 9

Toledo has a very balanced offense, averaging over 200 yards each in passing and rushing per game, while the Air Force (ironically) relies almost entirely on their ground game, which ranked second in the nation this season. Both offenses are very high-powered, so this game should feature a lot of scoring, which Toledo's balance giving them the win.

December 29th

Tangerine - Florida State vs. Notre Dame - Seminoles by 4

Both teams entered the season with expectations of playing for a national title, but early losses to unranked opponents sent both teams' seasons spiraling out of control long before anyone expected. It turned out that Clemson, who took out FSU, was a pretty good team, while South Florida, which beat the Irish, turned out to be overrated. Logic says the Seminoles loss was less of an upset, and they should pull this one out.

Alamo - Washington vs. (12) Baylor - Bears by 15

Baylor comes into the bowl game hot, riding their Heisman-winning quarterback, Robert Griffin III, and playing near home in San Antonio, while Washington couldn't stand up when they played stiff competition. Look for a blowout by the Bears, who should score a ton of points on the overmatched Huskies.

Look for my predictions for the remainder of this season's bowl games in the next couple days, and enjoy the only postseason that doesn't allow teams to advance to a championship game.

NFL Rankings - 13 Dec

Three weeks remain in the NFL regular season, and eight playoff spots are still up for grabs, with 18 teams still in the running for those spots. Ten teams have already been eliminated, and two of them celebrated by firing their coaches as soon as the playoffs were no longer an option. The two best teams currently play in the NFC, but the rest of the top spots are dominated by AFC teams, many of which could win the Super Bowl should the Packers falter. Here are this week's rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. Green Bay (13-0) -13.60 (1)



2. New Orleans (10-3) -9.82 (3)

3. Baltimore (10-3) -8.50 (4)
4. Houston (10-3) -8.31 (2)
5. New England (10-3) -7.97 (5)

6. Pittsburgh (10-3) -6.73 (7)
7. San Francisco (10-3) -6.66 (6)

8. NY Jets (8-5) -4.79 (10)

9. Detroit (8-5) -3.65 (8)
10. Atlanta (8-5) -3.29 (11)
11. San Diego (6-7) -3.11 (15)

12. Chicago (7-6) -1.20 (12)
13. Dallas (7-6) -0.69 (13)
14. Tennessee (7-6) -0.57 (14)
15. Cincinnati (7-6) -0.14 (16)
16. Miami (4-9) 0.15 (9)
17. NY Giants (7-6) 0.47 (20)
18. Philadelphia (5-8) 0.51 (22)
19. Denver (8-5) 0.74 (17)
20. Seattle (6-7) 1.61 (18)
21. Arizona (6-7) 2.40 (24)
22. Carolina (4-9) 2.74 (21)
23. Jacksonville (4-9) 3.35 (27)

24. Buffalo (5-8) 4.52 (23)
25. Oakland (7-6) 4.68 (19)
26. Washington (4-9) 4.71 (25)
27. Minnesota (2-11) 5.22 (28)
28. Cleveland (4-9) 5.70 (26)


29. Kansas City (5-8) 8.38 (30)

30. Tampa Bay (4-9) 9.93 (29)

31. Saint Louis (2-11) 11.91 (31)
32. Indianapolis (0-13) 12.00 (32)

San Diego was the strongest team of the past weekend, beating a Buffalo team that has been struggling and has now matched San Diego's recent losing streak of six games. Buffalo's loss eliminated them from playoff contention, but San Diego is still alive, thanks to a huge loss by the Raiders. If somebody can find a way to put the Broncos away, you may just see the Chargers where they belong, as the AFC West champion.

In just their second game under a new head coach, the Jacksonville Jaguars earned their biggest win of the season on Sunday, beating Tampa Bay 41-14. Though the game was entirely meaningless in the playoff picture, it still means something to Mel Tucker and his players.

Green Bay left no doubt that they are the best team in the league by walloping fellow division leader Oakland by 30. They have an easy game against Kansas City this week, then struggling Chicago the following week, after which they may have their only challenge in week 17 against Detroit, especially since they will already have home field locked up by then.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Jacksonville at Atlanta - Falcons by 10

Saturday

Dallas at Tampa Bay - Cowboys by 8

Sunday

Miami at Buffalo - Dolphins by 1
Seattle at Chicago - Bears by 6
Tennessee at Indianapolis - Titans by 10
Green Bay at Kansas City - Packers by 19
Cincinnati at Saint Louis - Bengals by 9
New Orleans at Minnesota - Saints by 12
Washington at NY Giants - Giants by 7
Carolina at Houston - Texans by 14
Cleveland at Arizona - Cardinals by 6
Detroit at Oakland - Lions by 5
New England at Denver - Patriots by 6
NY Jets at Philadelphia - Jets by 2
Baltimore at San Diego - Ravens by 2

Monday

Pittsburgh at San Francisco - 49ers by 3

Prediction Results

NFL: 12-4 (.750) 136-72 overall (.654)
NFL Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 21-19 overall (.525)

College Basketball Rankings - 12 Dec

The top two teams in the country both went down on Saturday afternoon, and both upsets were predicted here last week by yours truly. There are sure to be many more upsets this week, but which ones? I'll answer that question later, but first I've got to tell you where everybody stands at this point, including the 9 teams that have yet to lose this season. Here they are, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (This Week) (Overall) Rating (AP)
1. (2) Wisconsin (2-0) (8-2) -21.28 (14)

2. (5) North Carolina (2-0) (8-2) -19.65 (5)
3. (8) Kentucky (0-1) (8-1) -19.24 (3)

4. (1) Marquette (2-0) (9-0) -18.16 (11)

5. (4) Ohio State (0-1) (8-1) -16.51 (2)
6. (7) Syracuse (2-0) (10-0) -16.22 (1)
7. (NR) Murray State (1-0) (10-0) -16.05 (24)
8. (6) Indiana (1-0) (9-0) -15.50 (18)
9. (15) Stanford (0-0) (8-1) -15.42 (31)
10. (14) Baylor (0-0) (7-0) -14.89 (6)
11. (18) BYU (2-0) (8-2) -14.58 (NR)
12. (13) Duke (2-0) (9-1) -13.77 (7)
13. (16) Michigan State (2-0) (8-2) -13.74 (21)
14. (19) Kansas (2-0) (7-2) -13.47 (12)
15. (NR) Long Beach State (0-2) (4-5) -12.92 (38)
16. (25) Southern Miss (2-0) (7-2) -12.84 (NR)
17. (17) Missouri (2-0) (9-0) -12.70 (10)
18. (NR) Louisville (2-0) (9-0) -12.12 (4)
19. (3) Florida (2-0) (7-2) -11.98 (13)
20. (22) Saint Mary's (0-0) (5-1) -11.71 (NR)
21. (NR) Marshall (1-1) (6-2) -11.61 (NR)
22. (NR) Harvard (1-1) (9-1) -11.32 (27)
23. (NR) UNLV (0-1) (9-2) -11.12 (30)
24. (NR) Memphis (1-1) (5-3) -10.89 (34)
25. (9) Georgetown (1-0) (8-1) -10.42 (16)

Dropped Out

(12) Iona (1-1) (7-2) -10.02 (NR)
(23) Wichita State (2-0) (7-2) -8.57 (41)
(20) Purdue (2-0) (9-2) -7.26 (NR)
(24) Middle Tennessee (1-1) (9-2) -7.18 (NR)
(21) Wagner (1-1) (7-3) -6.67 (NR)
(11) Alabama (1-1) (8-2) -6.60 (23)
(10) Richmond (0-1) (6-3) -1.07 (NR)

Ranked Teams By Conference

Big 10 - 4
Big East - 4
Big 12 - 3
CUSA - 3
ACC - 2
SEC - 2
WCC - 2
OVC - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Big West - 1
Ivy - 1
MWC - 1

12 conference are represented in my top 25, making for a very diverse group, and no conference has more than 4 teams near the top. The top 3 teams this week are not among the 9 undefeated teams, but each has good reason for their ranking. There are two undefeated teams that have not cracked my top 25, Xavier and Illinois.

Wisconsin may have two losses, but both are to other teams currently ranked in the top 4 of my rankings, and both were close games. They have beaten both UNLV and BYU, who are both underrated so far this season, and both of those victories were by double digits. Unfortunately, they don't play another ranked team until the new year, which could hurt their ranking by dropping their strength of schedule.

Kentucky moved up this week despite suffering their first loss, but the loss was to undefeated Indiana, it was on the road, and it took a last-second buzzer-beating three-pointer to take them down, so the fact that they kept themselves in the game and had a great chance of winning improved my opinion of them, and made them the clear favorite in the SEC.

Murray State made a huge move this week to join my top 10, with their win over Memphis on the road last night taking them from the lower reaches of my rankings into the premier level. They also had a huge win over a very good Dayton team this week, and just last week beat Southern Miss, which is also sitting among the top 25 teams above as we speak.

The Pac 12's lone ranked team this week is Stanford, a team that is not getting a lot of recognition nationally despite a 9-1 record. They haven't beaten a team yet that is near the rankings, but 6 of their 8 wins are by at least 15 points, and the nearly beat AP #1 Syracuse on a neutral court during Thanksgiving weekend. The national rankings don't have a Pac 12 team ranked currently, but they should before long.

Long Beach State made the top 25 this week despite having a losing record overall and losing both of its games this week. It may seem a little strange, but their losses this week show how good they really are. They lost by 8 points at Kansas, then by 6 at North Carolina later in the week. Home court advantage is currently worth about 8.5 points, which means that on a neutral court or at home in California the 49ers may have come away as the victor in those games.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

(15) Wisconsin at Milwaukee - Badgers by 8
Florida Atlantic at (16) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 18
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at (18) Michigan - Wolverines by 28
Jackson State at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 31

Wednesday

USC-Upstate at (2) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 26
Bethune-Cookman at (7) Baylor - Bears by 30
UTEP at UNLV - Rebels by 24

Thursday

Kennesaw State at (8) Missouri - Tigers by 39
Savannah State at (15) Wisconsin - Badgers by 34
North Carolina A&T at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 33

Saturday

(1) Syracuse at North Carolina State - Orange by 4
(2) Ohio State at South Carolina - Buckeyes by 13
Chattanooga at (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 34
Memphis at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 10
Appalachian State at (6) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 37
(7) Baylor at BYU - Cougars by 8
Northern Colorado at (11) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 23
(22) Texas A&M at (13) Florida - Gators by 21
South Carolina State at (14) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 33
(16) Mississippi State at Detroit - Bulldogs by 4
American at (17) Georgetown - Hoyas by 24
Alabama A&M at (18) Michigan - Wolverines by 27
UNLV at (19) Illinois - Fighting Illini by 2
Notre Dame at (20) Indiana - Hoosiers by 26
(21) Alabama at Kansas State - Wildcats by 4
Bowling Green at (23) Michigan State - Spartans by 27
Houston Baptist at (24) Creighton - Bluejays by 34
Indiana State at (25) Vanderbilt - Commodores by 12
San Diego at Stanford - Cardinal by 38
Bethune-Cookman at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 27
Mississippi at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 18
High Point at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 29

Sunday

William & Mary at (8) Missouri - Tigers by 41
Oral Roberts at (9) Xavier - Musketeers by 18
Holy Cross at (10) Connecticut - Huskies by 18

Prediction Results

College Basketball: 46-8 (.852)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800)

Top 100 NBA Players: #23

George Mikan

(Kalb: #19, Simmons: #36, BBR: #59)

George Mikan is probably the most difficult player to place within any countdown of the greatest players of all time, but any list that doesn't contain him is absolutely flawed. Mikan dominated the league in an era where the game was played very differently, and he is the reason for many rule changes that we recognize today as integral parts of the game.

In Mikan's first three seasons, he led the NBA in scoring, scoring over 27 points per game over 3 straight seasons, while only a couple of other players were even reaching the 20-point plateau. The MVP award did not exist in his day, but if it did, his name would have been permanently etched on it. Here are his stats from his first three seasons compared to those of the second-best players in each of those seasons:

Mikan (1949) - 28.3 pts, 3.6 ast, .416 FG%, .772 FT%
Fulks (1949) - 26.0 pts, 1.2 ast, .313 FG%, .787 FT%

Mikan (1950) - 27.4 pts, 2.9 ast, .407 FG%, .779 FT%
Groza (1950) - 23.4 pts, 2.5 ast, .478 FG%, .729 FT%

Mikan (1951) - 28.4 pts, 14.1 reb, 3.1 ast, .428 FG%, .803 FT%
Schayes (1951) - 17.0 pts, 16.4 reb, 3.8 ast, .357 FG%, .752 FT%

Fulks shot free throws better than Mikan, Groza shot field goals better, and Schayes was better on the boards, but Mikan was the top player in the NBA in all of those seasons with no doubt. He would have won all 3 MVP awards easily, and would have won championships in all three seasons if he hadn't broken his leg during the playoffs. Instead of sitting out with such a major injury, he had the team doctor tape it up with a plate on each side and played through it, getting his team to the conference finals anyway. There also was no Finals MVP award yet at that point, but he would have won two in those first two seasons.

After the 1951 season, the league made a rule change to prevent Mikan from being so dominant, and that rule change was widening the three-second lane from 6 feet to twelve feet, which is much closer to what we recognize today. Mikan's scoring average and shooting percentage dropped significantly due to this change, so he focused more on rebounding, and in the next two seasons he led the league in that category instead. Here are his stats over the next two seasons, both of which would have been MVP seasons for him as well:

Mikan (1952) - 23.8 pts, 13.5 reb, 3.0 ast, .385 FG%, .780 FT%
Cousy (1952) - 21.7 pts, 6.4 reb, 6.7 ast, .369 FG%, .808 FT%

Mikan (1953) - 20.6 pts, 14.4 reb, 2.9 ast, .399 FG%, .780 FT%
Cousy (1953) - 19.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 7.7 ast, .352 FG%, .816 FT%

Mikan was still the best player in the league, but the #2 player was no longer a center or power forward, he was a point guard. The rule change had made it possible for a player to dominate the game from any position, making Mikan's grip on the best player title less sure. He did lead the Lakers to two more championships in those seasons, and would have added two more Finals MVP's to his collection.

1954 was the season in which Cousy finally displaced Mikan as the league's premier player, and Mikan knew that the end was near. Even though he wasn't the best player anymore, he still led the Lakers to one more title, giving him 5 in six seasons. He retired after the playoffs, possibly because of the aforementioned reason, or possibly to spend more time with his family, which is the reason he gave. Most likely, it was because of another rule that was implemented that summer: the 24-second shot clock. That rule prevented the Lakers from standing around waiting for Mikan to get into position before tossing him the ball for an easy inside shot. His lack of speed would have been his downfall, and he proved it by attempting a comeback a year later, averaging only 10 points and 8 rebounds during half a season of action.

Though Mikan's career was extremely short (only 7 seasons) he was the dominant player of his era, and if the awards had been thought of earlier, Mikan's trophy case would include 5 Regular Season and 5 Finals MVP awards. Also, he is the one we can thank for many of the rules today that keep the game interesting and competitive, so there is no way that he can be left out of the top section of these rankings.

It's tough to compare Mikan to Havlicek, because the times were different and their careers were very different. Both were Finals MVP's, with Mikan deserving two more than Hondo, but Mikan was the best player in the league for 5 years, and Havlicek was never able to say that. Longevity helps Havlicek out a bit, but it's not enough to make up for how great Mikan was in those six seasons.

NFL Rankings and Football Predictions

Both teams that could clinch playoff berths on Sunday did so, with San Francisco getting the win necessary and Green Bay getting losses from its two nearest rivals to go along with its 12th win of the season. No other team can clinch until next week at best, but most likely not until there is one week left in the season, since no other team has a lead of more than two games in its division, and those division leaders all have significant weaknesses. Here are this week's fresh rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. Green Bay (12-0) -11.43 (1)

2. Houston (9-3) -10.25 (2)
3. New Orleans (9-3) -10.21 (4)
4. Baltimore (9-3) -9.69 (5)
5. New England (9-3) -9.17 (3)
6. San Francisco (10-2) -8.25 (6)
7. Pittsburgh (9-3) -7.77 (9)

8. Detroit (7-5) -5.20 (7)
9. Miami (4-8) -4.44 (11)
10. NY Jets (7-5) -3.65 (13)
11. Atlanta (7-5) -2.99 (12)
12. Chicago (7-5) -2.52 (8)
13. Dallas (7-5) -2.27 (10)

14. Tennessee (7-5) -1.06 (15)
15. San Diego (5-7) -0.52 (20)
16. Cincinnati (7-5) -0.17 (14)
17. Denver (7-5) 0.75 (18)
18. Seattle (5-7) 1.57 (25)
19. Oakland (7-5) 2.18 (17)
20. NY Giants (6-6) 2.19 (22)
21. Carolina (4-8) 2.29 (27)
22. Philadelphia (4-8) 2.37 (16)
23. Buffalo (5-7) 3.04 (19)
24. Arizona (5-7) 3.60 (28)

25. Washington (4-8) 4.72 (24)
26. Cleveland (4-8) 5.52 (26)
27. Jacksonville (3-9) 5.74 (21)
28. Minnesota (2-10) 6.26 (29)
29. Tampa Bay (4-8) 6.31 (23)
30. Kansas City (5-7) 7.10 (30

31. Saint Louis (2-10) 12.23 (31)

32. Indianapolis (0-12) 13.33 (32)

Teams of the Week

Kansas City, playing without starting quarterback Matt Cassell, beat the Chicago Bears, playing without starting quarterback Jay Cutler, and did it with only 10 points scored, including the first touchdown they have scored in the past three weeks. I'm still not sure how they pulled it off, or if it really means anything, but without their win Green Bay would not have their playoff berth yet.

Just about everybody had written off the San Diego Chargers after they had lost six straight games and put coach Norv Turner's job in jeopardy, but then they took the field against Jacksonville on Monday Night Football and looked like the Chargers we have been used to seeing for the past few years, and Philip Rivers finally had an interception-free game as San Diego destroyed the Jaguars 38-14.

Pittsburgh went into their game against Cincinnati this weekend hoping to keep pace with Baltimore in the division race and hoping to stay ahead of the surprising Bengals, who had given them a test three weeks earlier in Cincinnati, and they put on their best performance of the entire season, taking out the visitors 35-7 while only scoring in the second and third quarters.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Cleveland at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 16

Saturday

Army vs. Navy - Midshipmen by 10

Sunday

Houston at Cincinnati - Texans by 7
Minnesota at Detroit - Lions by 14
New Orleans at Tennessee - Saints by 7
Philadelphia at Miami - Dolphins by 9
Kansas City at NY Jets - Jets by 13
New England at Washington - Patriots by 11
Atlanta at Carolina - Falcons by 3
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville - Jaguars by 3
Indianapolis at Baltimore - Ravens by 26
San Francisco at Arizona - 49ers by 9
Chicago at Denver - Bears by 1
Oakland at Green Bay - Packers by 16
Buffalo at San Diego - Chargers by 6
NY Giants at Dallas - Cowboys by 7

Monday

Saint Louis at Seattle - Seahawks by 13

Prediction Results

NFL: 11-5 (.688) 124-68 overall (.646)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 46-68 overall (.404)

College Basketball Rankings - 5 Dec

Basketball is back, and the college season has been underway for nearly a month, so it's time for my first college basketball rankings of the season. 15 teams have kept themselves undefeated up to this point, but not all have yet proven themselves worthy of a spot in the top 25. Here are the 25 teams that have set themselves apart so far, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Record) Rating (AP)
1. Marquette (7-0) -28.61 (11)

2. Wisconsin (6-2) -24.86 (14)

3. Florida (5-2) -22.41 (12)
4. Ohio State (8-0) -22.12 (2)

5. North Carolina (6-2) -20.08 (4)
6. Indiana (8-0) -19.69 (39)
7. Syracuse (8-0) -19.06 (3)

8. Kentucky (8-0) -17.90 (1)
9. Georgetown (7-1) -17.85 (18)
10. Richmond (6-2) -17.23 (NR)
11. Alabama (7-1) -17.06 (16)
12. Iona (6-1) -17.03 (NR)
13. Duke (7-1) -16.65 (7)
14. Baylor (7-0) -16.38 (6)
15. Stanford (8-1) -16.14 (32)
16. Michigan State (6-2) -15.92 (28)
17. Missouri (7-0) -15.80 (10)
18. BYU (6-2) -15.61 (NR)

19. Kansas (5-2) -14.37 (13)
20. Purdue (7-2) -13.73 (33)
21. Wagner (6-2) -13.36 (NR)
22. Saint Marys (5-1) -13.29 (NR)
23. Wichita State (5-2) -13.22 (NR)
24. Middle Tennessee (8-1) -13.16 (NR)
25. Southern Miss (5-2) -13.14 (NR)

Ranked Teams By Conference

Big 10 - 5
Big East - 3
SEC - 3
Big 12 - 3
ACC - 2
WCC - 2
Atl 10 - 1
MAAC - 1
Pac 12 - 1
NEC - 1
MVC - 1
Sun Belt - 1
CUSA - 1

Overall, 13 conferences are represented in my rankings, with only the Big Ten having a major footprint there. No ranked team has lost more than twice, but 8 of the teams that have yet to lose haven't yet cracked my rankings. There are 12 teams ranked nationally that are not in my top 25, which means that there are quite a few teams that are already over- and under-rated. Here are my picks for each game involving a team ranked either nationally or by me for the next week, with upset picks in italics.

Tuesday

Marshall at (3) Syracuse - Orange by 23
Evansville at (6) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 35
(10) Missouri at Villanova - Tigers by 7
Washington at (11) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 31
Long Beach State at (13) Kansas - Jayhawks by 14
VMI at (14) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 30
(20) Memphis at Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Hofstra at Wagner - Seahawks by 26

Wednesday

IUPUI at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 22
Colorado State at (5) Duke - Blue Devils by 23
(8) Xavier at Butler - Musketeers by 1
Arizona at (12) Florida - Gators by 25
(15) Alabama at Dayton - Crimson Tide by 6
Green Bay at (16) Wisconsin - Badgers by 31
Saint Bonaventure at (22) Illinois - Fighting Illini by 10
Sam Houston State at (25) Texas A&M - Aggies by 17
Iona at Denver - Gaels by 1
Central Connecticut State at Michigan State - Spartans by 24
Weber State at BYU - Cougars by 25
West Carolina at Purdue - Boilermakers by 30
Wichita State at Tulsa - Shockers by 2
Middle Tennessee at UAB - Blue Raiders by 8
Southern Miss at Southern Alabama - Golden Eagles by 3

Thursday

(24) Harvard at (9) Connecticut - Huskies by 7

Friday

Rider at (12) Florida - Gators by 47
Richmond at VCU - Spiders by 1

Saturday

(1) Kentucky at Indiana - Hoosiers by 11
(2) Ohio State at (13) Kansas - Jayhawks by 1
George Washington at (3) Syracuse - Orange by 28
Fairleigh Dickinson at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 25
Washington vs. (5) Duke - Blue Devils by 10
Long Beach State at (6) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 20
Cincinnati at (8) Xavier - Musketeers by 11
Navy at (10) Missouri - Tigers by 33
Green Bay at (11) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 35
Oklahoma State vs. (14) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 9
UNLV at (16) Wisconsin - Badgers by 23
(17) Creighton at Saint Joseph's - Hawks by 5
Troy at (18) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 12
(19) Michigan vs. Oakland - Wolverines by 1
Howard at (21) Georgetown - Hoyas by 40
Michigan State at (22) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 1
(24) Harvard at Boston - Crimson by 7
Louisiana-Monroe at (25) Texas A&M - Aggies by 11
BYU at Utah - Cougars by 22
Eastern Michigan at Purdue - Boilermakers by 28
Lehigh at Wagner - Seahawks by 15
Utah State at Wichita State - Shockers by 25
Tennessee-Martin at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 35
Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 19

Sunday

Detroit at (12) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 32
Murray State at (21) Memphis - Tigers by 9
Jackson State at (23) California - Golden Bears by 24
Iona at Marshall - Gaels by 1

College Football Rankings

The regular season has ended, unless you count Army vs. Navy, which hasn't meant anything in over a decade. There is only one team undefeated today, which means that LSU has guaranteed their berth in the championship game, but their opponent is not quite as set in stone as many commentators believed heading into this weekend. Five of the automatic BCS berths have been claimed, with one waiting until the standing come out, and two of the four wild card berths are pretty much guaranteed to Alabama and Stanford, leaving only two spots open and a huge group of teams hoping to grab one. Here are this week's rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP)
1. (1) LSU (13-0) -35.72 (1)

2. (3) Oklahoma State (11-1) -32.24 (3)
3. (2) Alabama (11-1) -31.41 (2)

4. (4) Oregon (11-2) -25.58 (6)
5. (6) Wisconsin (11-2) -24.85 (9)
6. (7) Stanford (11-1) -23.54 (4)
7. (5) Oklahoma (9-3) -22.61 (19)

8. (10) USC (10-2) -19.85 (5)
9. (9) Boise State (11-1) -18.62 (8)
10. (8) Houston (12-1) -18.20 (20)
11. (12) Michigan (10-2) -17.51 (13)
12. (13) Arkansas (10-2) -17.34 (7)
13. (14) Michigan State (10-3) -16.44 (12)
14. (11) Texas A&M (6-6) -16.33 (NR)

15. (17) Baylor (9-3) -13.87 (15)
16. (19) Notre Dame (8-4) -12.94 (26)
17. (15) Kansas State (10-2) -12.90 (11)
18. (21) South Carolina (10-2) -12.89 (10)
19. (22) California (7-5) -12.21 (NR)
20. (20) TCU (10-2) -11.72 (16)
21. (23) Florida State (8-4) -11.43 (25)
22. (16) Texas (7-5) -11.06 (NR)
23. (18) Georgia (10-3) -11.04 (18)
24. (24) Missouri (7-5) -10.07 (32)
25. (NR) Vanderbilt (6-6) -9.30 (NR)

Dropped Out 

(25) Virginia Tech (11-2) -6.06 (17)

Ranked Teams By Conference

Big 12 - 7
SEC - 6
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1
ACC - 1

BCS Situation

These are the teams that have earned automatic berths, along with the conference they represent. After the team name is their record against current top-30 teams, along with the average score of those games and the rankings of any teams they lost to.

SEC - LSU (4-0) 33-15 (No Losses)
Big 12 - Oklahoma State (6-0) 45-26 (44)
Pac 12 - Oregon (3-2) 40-30 (1, 8)
Big 10 - Wisconsin (2-1) 40-31 (13, 45)
ACC - Clemson (1-1) 24-32 (18, 59, 62)

Big East - West Virginia (1-1) 23-34 (1, 39, 77) or
Big East - Cincinnati (0-0) 0-0 (32, 46, 56)

The Big East's automatic bid will go to the team with the highest BCS rank among West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville, who tied for the conference title. Since Louisville has no chance at being ranked in the BCS, I have not included them above.

Any team ranked in the top 4 of the final BCS standings without winning their conference championship gets an automatic at-large berth, and there are two teams likely to find themselves in that category this year.

Alabama (2-1) 26-8 (1)
Stanford (3-1) 36-36 (4)

That accounts for 8 of the 10 BCS berths. The two remaining berths are up for grabs among 11 teams. In order to be awarded an at-large berth, a team must have at least 9 wins, must finish among the top 14 in the final BCS rankings, and not be in the same conference as two other BCS teams (which eliminates Arkansas, South Carolina, and Georgia from contention). If a non-AQ conference champion finished in the top 16 and ahead of one of the major conference champions (whoever wins the Big East), they will get an at-large bid, with a maximum of one getting a guaranteed berth. There are two teams that could get in using that rule, but will not get in otherwise. They are listed here:

TCU (1-1) 42-43 (15, 79)
Southern Miss (1-0) 49-28 (101, 112)

Here are the remaining teams that could get at-large berths, provided that they finish among the top 14, organized by current USA Today rank, which is a part of the BCS formula:

Boise State (2-1) 37-26 (20)
Kansas State (4-2) 32-38 (2, 7)
Virginia Tech (0-0) 0-0 (37, 37)
Michigan (2-1) 31-25 (13, 42)
Michigan State (2-3) 24-28 (5, 16, 27)
Baylor (4-3) 39-43 (2, 14, 17)
Houston (0-1) 28-49 (28)
Oklahoma (5-2) 38-27 (2, 15, 69)
Nebraska (1-2) 19-32 (5, 11, 61)

The bottom 4 are unlikely to be ranked high enough to qualify for a BCS berth, and each is likely to have too many conference opponents ranked ahead of them to make it in. Virginia Tech may be considered, but since they have not played a ranked team (unless you count Clemson, which I don't), I feel they would not be a good choice. That leaves two spots for 3 teams: Boise State, Kansas State, and one of the Michigan teams. Here are the teams I believe will play in each of the BCS games:

BCS Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama
Orange Bowl - Clemson vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl - Boise State vs. Michigan
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

Here are the teams I think should play in each of the BCS games:

BCS Championship Game: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Orange Bowl - Clemson vs. Cincinnati
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl - Stanford vs. Boise State

Sadly, there is still an argument as to which two teams should play in the championship game, a problem that we wouldn't have if a simple playoff system could be created. There are several different versions that would work, and any would be better than the current system. Here is an 8-team playoff setup, using the top 8 teams in the BCS rankings, with no limit on the number of teams a conference can have:

(1) LSU
(2) Alabama
(3) Oklahoma State
(4) Stanford
(5) Boise State
(6) Oregon
(7) Arkansas
(8) Wisconsin

This would only take three weeks of games to complete, and would keep the majority of football fans more interested throughout the month of December, since right now no game matters after December 3rd. I still believe that a 16-team playoff would be even better, with the 11 conference champions and 5 at-large teams, with a 2-team-per-conference limit. Here is how that would look:

(1) LSU
(2) Alabama
(3) Oklahoma State
(4) Stanford
(5) Boise State
(6) Oregon
(7) Kansas State
(8) Wisconsin
(9) Michigan
(10) Clemson
(11) TCU
(12) Southern Miss
(13) Cincinnati
(14) Louisiana Tech
(15) Arkansas State
(16) Northern Illinois

While many say that it would be better to have only 12 teams and give the top 4 teams a first-round bye, like in the NFL, this system basically does that anyway, with the top four teams getting unranked opponents in the first round of the playoffs.

Prediction Results

Ranked Teams: 8-2 (.800) 241-93 overall (.722)
Unranked Teams: 11-1 (.917) 131-56 overall (.701)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 45-67 overall (.402)

Football Predictions

Some have suggested that this weekend's slate of college football games is not as interesting as some have been recently, but the fact that not a single team has guaranteed themselves a BCS berth at this point makes that idea seem ridiculous. Any of the current favorites to play in BCS games could find themselves out of the picture if things don't fall their way this weekend, and that includes LSU and Alabama, one of which will be left out if LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Since no team is safe, that means every game matters, and you can expect to see a lot of close games. Here are my picks for every game taking place this weekend.

Thursday

Philadelphia at Seattle - Eagles by 1

(23) West Virginia at South Florida - Bulls by 1

Friday

Ohio vs. Northern Illinois - Huskies by 2
UCLA at (9) Oregon - Ducks by 32

Saturday

New Mexico at (7) Boise State - Broncos by 59
Syracuse at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 17
(24) Southern Miss at (6) Houston - Cougars by 26
Connecticut at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 14
Iowa State at (11) Kansas State - Wildcats by 14
Wyoming at Colorado State - Cowboys by 6
UNLV at (18) TCU - Horned Frogs by 40
Utah State at New Mexico State - USU Aggies by 12
(22) Texas at (17) Baylor - Bears by 4
Louisiana-Monroe at Florida Atlantic - Warhawks by 13
(1) LSU at (14) Georgia - Tigers by 15
Middle Tennessee State at North Texas - Mean Green by 14
Idaho at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 22
Troy at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 23
BYU at Hawaii - Cougars by 7
Fresno State at San Diego State - Aztecs by 14
(10) Oklahoma at (3) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 9
(5) Virginia Tech vs. (20) Clemson - Hokies by 8
(15) Wisconsin vs. (13) Michigan State - Badgers by 10

Sunday

Atlanta at Houston - Texans by 11
Tennessee at Buffalo - Titans by 1
Kansas City at Chicago - Bears by 19
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 5
Denver at Minnesota - Broncos by 2
Indianapolis at New England - Patriots by 30
Oakland at Miami - Dolphins by 6
NY Jets at Washington - Jets by 3
Carolina at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 4
Baltimore at Cleveland - Ravens by 11
Dallas at Arizona - Cowboys by 7
Green Bay at NY Giants - Packers by 13
Saint Louis at San Francisco - 49ers by 23
Detroit at New Orleans - Saints by 6

Monday

San Diego at Jacksonville - Jaguars by 2