Monday, December 19, 2011

College Basketball Rankings - 19 Dec

Two more undefeated teams have fallen, leaving us with only 7, but the majority of the top-ranked teams had no problem this week. Even with very few ranked teams losing, there has been plenty of movement in my rankings, because there are always shifts in strength of schedule happening with the conclusion of each game. Here are the updated rankings, with my picks for the week afterward, and gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Wisconsin (2-0) (10-2) -21.89 (14)

2. (6) Syracuse (1-0) (11-0) -19.24 (1)

3. (4) Marquette (1-0) (10-0) -17.51 (10)
4. (3) Kentucky (1-0) (9-1) -17.29 (3)
5. (5) Ohio State (2-0) (10-1) -16.66 (2)
6. (2) North Carolina (1-0) (9-2) -16.40 (6)

7. (10) Baylor (2-0) (9-0) -15.22 (7)
8. (17) Missouri (2-0) (11-0) -14.89 (8)
9. (14) Kansas (0-0) (7-2) -14.53 (11)
10. (11) BYU (0-1) (8-3) -14.38 (NR)
11. (23) UNLV (2-0) (11-2) -14.24 (23)
12. (15) Long Beach State (0-0) (4-5) -13.24 (NR)
13. (NR) Ohio (1-0) (9-1) -13.12 (NR)
14. (12) Duke (0-0) (9-1) -12.98 (5)
15. (20) Saint Mary's (3-0) (8-1) -12.59 (35)
16. (7) Murray State (2-0) (12-0) -12.53 (22)
17. (19) Florida (1-0) (8-2) -12.38 (12)
18. (13) Michigan State (1-0) (9-2) -12.37 (20)
19. (NR) Creighton (1-0) (8-1) -12.16 (21)
20. (NR) Texas (2-0) (9-2) -12.14 (NR)
21. (NR) Iona (2-0) (9-2) -12.13 (NR)
22. (NR) California (1-0) (9-2) -12.03 (27)
23. (8) Indiana (1-0) (10-0) -12.00 (18)
24. (NR) Virginia (1-0) (9-1) -11.88 (29)
25. (18) Louisville (1-0) (10-0) -11.77 (4)

Dropped Out

(22) Harvard (0-0) (9-1) -11.75 (25)
(21) Marshall (1-0) (7-2) -11.26 (NR)
(9) Stanford (1-0) (9-1) -10.95 (33)
(25) Georgetown (1-0) (9-1) -10.26 (16)
(16) Southern Miss (1-0) (8-2) -10.19 (NR)
(24) Memphis (0-1) (5-4) -10.02 (34)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
Big East - 3
ACC - 3
SEC - 2
WCC - 2
MWC - 1
Big West - 1
MAC - 1
OVC - 1
MVC - 1
MAAC - 1
Pac 12 - 1

13 different conferences are now represented in the top 25, with only 4 conferences placing more than 2 teams in my rankings. Conference USA is the big loser this week, with all 3 teams it had ranked last week falling from my top 25. The Ivy League also lost its representative, but just barely, as Harvard is currently sitting at #26 and just .02 rating points behind Louisville for the final spot.

Syracuse separated themselves from the pursuit pack this week and set their sights firmly on #1 Wisconsin with a big win on the road at NC State, which was especially important because it was the first time the Orange had left the state of New York all season. Now that they've shown they can beat a decent team on the road, they should be able to stay undefeated until they start conference play, with fellow undefeated Marquette coming to visit in early January.

Missouri moved into the top 10 this week after winning two straight by 37 and 38 points, even though neither was against a good team. Their biggest win so far is against Cal, and their only decent opponent in the next month is Illinois, so they'll need to keep winning big to overcome the weak schedule ahead of them.

UNLV moved up big in the rankings following a huge win over Illinois in Chicago. The Rebels have lost twice so far this season, at #1 Wisconsin, and at #27 Wichita State, and since they don't visit another W team until February (Wyoming), they could be in for a long winning streak.

Ohio had a huge win this week at Wright State, raising their overall record to 9-1, with the only loss coming on the road against undefeated Louisville. They don't play another ranked team this year, so they'll have to be pretty close to perfect the rest of the way if they want to stay up in the rankings throughout the season.

Texas joined the three top 10 Big 12 teams among the top 25 this week after they obliterated Nicholls State 93-40 on Tuesday. Unfortunately, their stay in the rankings might not last long, as they're visiting North Carolina on Wednesday, and unless they keep it close, they won't be able to maintain this spot.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Bucknell at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 26
Lamar at (2) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 19
Samford at (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 36
Charleston at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 22
Saint Francis (PA) at (13) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 23
Buffalo at BYU - Cougars by 17
Eastern Washington at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 20
Ohio at Northern Iowa - Panthers by 4

Wednesday

Texas at (6) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 13
Tennessee-Martin at (22) Murray State - Racers by 30
Iona at William & Mary - Gaels by 20
Virginia at Seattle - Cavaliers by 9

Thursday

Tulane at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 27
Miami-Ohio at (2) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 27
Loyola-Maryland at (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 24
Saint Mary's at (7) Baylor - Bears by 11
(24) Illinois at (8) Missouri - Tigers by 21
Fairfield at (9) Connecticut - Huskies by 17
Milwaukee at (10) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 22
(11) Kansas at USC - Jayhawks by 7
Florida State at (12) Florida - Gators by 17
Long Beach State vs. (15) Xavier - 49ers by 9
Memphis at (16) Georgetown - Hoyas by 9
Northwestern State at (17) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 17
UMBC at (18) Indiana - Hoosiers by 39
Bradley at (19) Michigan - Wolverines by 13
Lehigh at (20) Michigan State - Spartans by 13
Northwestern at (21) Creighton - Bluejays by 17
Florida Atlantic at (25) Harvard - Crimson by 19
California-Santa Barbara at BYU - Cougars by 18

Friday

Western Kentucky at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 30
West Virginia at (7) Baylor - Bears by 18
Wagner at (13) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 7
Mississippi Valley State at (14) Wisconsin - Badgers by 38
California at (23) UNLV - Rebels by 11
Missouri State at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 12
North Carolina A&T at Ohio - Bobcats by 34

Prediction Results

College Basketball: 31-4 (.886) 87-12 overall (.879)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 6-2 (.750)

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