Saturday, February 12, 2011

NBA Regular Season and Playoff Predictions - 12 Feb

Last week I introduced my long-term NBA predictions, and today I am updating those predictions to reflect the results of recent games. Each team's projected record is followed by its current standing in the conference and its change in projected wins in parentheses. Teams that performed better than expected this week saw an increase in wins and sometimes seeding.

Eastern Conference

1. Miami (61-21) (1) (+1)
2. Boston (59-23) (2) (-2)
3. Chicago (56-26) (3) (-2)
4. Orlando (53-29) (5) (0)
5. Atlanta (47-35) (4) (-2)
6. Philadelphia (42-40) (7) (+2)
7. New York (41-41) (6) (-1)
8. Indiana (39-43) (8) (+3)

9. Milwaukee (35-47) (10) (-2)
10. Charlotte (33-49) (9) (-1)

Indiana's strong week and Milwaukee's collapse have allowed Indiana to grab a firm hold on the final playoff berth for now. Philadelphia has also jumped a spot this week thanks to a combination of their success and New York's struggles. The other change happened at the top, where Miami passed Boston after the Celtics lost multiple games this week. Those are still the only two teams with a real chance at the top seed in the East, with Chicago still barely in the hunt.

Western Conference

1. San Antonio (65-17) (1) (+1)
2. LA Lakers (58-24) (2) (+2)
3. Dallas (55-27) (3) (+1)
4. Oklahoma City (51-31) (4) (0)
5. New Orleans (49-33) (5) (-2)
6. Denver (47-35) (6) (-2)
7. Memphis (43-39) (9) (-1)
8. Portland (43-39) (8) (+1)

9. Utah (43-39) (7) (-1)
10. Phoenix (41-41) (10) (+2)
11. Houston (40-42) (11) (0)

The Spurs will be #1, the Lakers and Mavericks will have home court in the first round, but nothing else in the West is set. Denver looks somewhat safe at this point, but their are still 5 teams with a very good chance at the final two spots, which means every game is very important. Phoenix and Portland played themselves into good positions this week, with Portland knocking struggling Utah out of the current playoff picture, but only by the skin of their teeth. This should be a very interesting race to watch play out.

Playoffs

First Round

Heat over Pacers in 5
Celtics over Knicks in 5
Bulls over 76ers in 6
Magic over Hawks in 6
Spurs over Blazers in 5
Lakers over Grizzlies in 6
Mavericks over Nuggets in 7
Hornets over Thunder in 7

Second Round

Heat over Magic in 6
Celtics over Bulls in 7
Spurs over Hornets in 6
Lakers over Mavericks in 6

Conference Finals

Heat over Celtics in 7
Spurs over Lakers in 7

Finals

Heat over Spurs in 7

NBA Player of the Day

Kobe Bryant - LAL - 33 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast, 12-17 FG, 4-7 3P, 5-8 FT
As nice as it would be to put Antawn Jamison here for his great effort in ending Cleveland's record losing streak, Kobe's performance alone trumped his last night. Kobe scored 19 points in the first quarter, then sat out the entire 4th as the Lakers ran away from the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Just imagine what his stats would look like if the game was close enough that he had to play more than 29 minutes.

Predictions - 12 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bobcats at Hawks - Hawks by 6
Knicks at Nets - Knicks by 2
Bulls at Hornets - Hornets by 1
76ers at Timberwolves - 76ers by 3
Spurs at Wizards - Spurs by 9
Mavericks at Rockets - Rockets by 1
Pacers at Bucks - Bucks by 2
Thunder at Kings - Thunder by 5

College Basketball

(1) Ohio State at (14) Wisconsin - Ohio State by 1
Iowa State at (2) Kansas - Kansas by 22
Baylor at (3) Texas - Texas by 17
(4) Pittsburgh at (10) Villanova - Nova by 1
(6) San Diego State at UNLV - UNLV by 2
(7) Notre Dame at South Florida - Notre Dame by 6
Utah at (8) BYU - BYU by 25
(13) Syracuse at (15) Louisville - Louisville by 6
Fresno State at (17) Utah State - Utah State by 17
(18) Kentucky at (24) Vanderbilt - Vandy by 1
Tennessee at (19) Florida - Florida by 8
Oklahoma at (20) Missouri - Missouri by 18
(21) North Carolina at Clemson - North Carolina by 1
(22) Texas A&M at Texas Tech - Texas A&M by 5
(23) Saint Mary's at San Francisco - Saint Mary's by 5
Belmont at Campbell - Belmont by 13
Maryland at Boston College - Maryland by 3
Stanford at Washington - Washington by 19

Prediction Results - 11 Feb

NBA: 5/10 (.500) 432/611 overall (.707)

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