College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 8 Feb

There are three new teams in the overrated rankings this week, which means that three of last week's teams finally made an exit from that list. Two of them, Minnesota and UConn, left in the way I like to see, by being upset by lower-ranked or unranked teams, Minnesota to Indiana and UConn to Syracuse. Villanova, however, is no longer as overrated as before, thanks to impressive wins over Marquette and West Virginia showed that they are one of the best in the Big East. There is only one team exiting my underrated rankings this week, and it's a team that been with me almost the entire season: Saint Mary's. Their close wins over Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount this week made it clear that they are not the same team they were early in the season, although I still consider them a team with upset potential in the first round. Here are the new rankings, with last week's ranking in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Texas A&M (3)

2. Florida

3. Notre Dame

4. Utah State (2)

5. Temple

Texas A&M is still ranked, despite the fact that they have now dropped 4 of their last five games, including two losses to unranked teams, the last one on their home court. The other two losses were both 20-point blowouts against Texas, and even though Texas is good, no ranked team should be losing by 20 to anyone. Their losing streak should continue this week against Colorado before a visit to last-place Texas Tech allows them to stop the bleeding momentarily.

The Florida Gators' two wins over ranked teams (Kentucky and Vanderbilt) this week would seem to make them worthy of a spot in the rankings, but those victories would have been much more impressive three weeks ago when both of those teams were still playing their best basketball. I don't see them losing again until they go to Kentucky at the end of the month, so maybe they'll convince me to take them off this list by then.

Notre Dame has been just outside these rankings for week's now, and it's not that they aren't a good team, because they are, but they are not a top 10 team. They are just another average Big East team, but if there's a conference you want to be average in, it's the Big East. Last month they lost to Marquette and Saint John's, both unranked, and this week they narrowly escaped Rutgers, a team that is not even being considered for the tournament. I see their next loss coming at West Virginia on the 19th, but tomorrow against Louisville could also be close.

Utah State worked their way down these rankings last week the hard way, by obliterating weak competition. They won consecutive games over Nevada and Boise State by 22 and 28, respectively, and their biggest challenge the rest of the way will be their BracketBuster matchup with Saint Mary's on the 19th.

Temple made it back into the AP top 25 this week by virtue of having the best overall record in the Atlantic 10, but if you look at this week's results (which the voters obviously didn't), it doesn't make any sense. They beat LaSalle, a team with a losing record, by a measly four points, then beat Rhode Island, an average team at best, by 13 at home. If any team from the Atlantic 10 deserves to be ranked, it's Duquesne, the current conference leader and its best team.

Underrated

1. Maryland (1)

2. Washington (4)

3. Illinois (5)

4. Belmont (2)

5. Kentucky

Maryland didn't play nearly as well against Duke as they should have, so it's understandable that they don't have any votes in the polls, but they did blow out Wake Forest this week, a sign that they are a good team, but they will have to do the same to Longwood this week to maintain their spot in these rankings.

Washington lost to both Oregon and Oregon State, two of the worst teams in the Pac 10, this week, which is the cause of their drop from the national rankings, but by dropping them the voters are overlooking the fact that they beat Arizona handily and blew out some other very good teams, such as Portland, earlier in the year. If they lose to Cal or Stanford this week, my stance on them may begin to soften.

Illinois continued their descent in the polls this week with a loss to unranked Northwestern, their fifth loss in 7 games, but after they "upset" Minnesota and Purdue this week, I think the voters will be singing a different tune.

Belmont's win over North Florida this week was a little too close for comfort, but they are still 14-1 in conference play and don't look likely to slip up again before the regular season ends.

Two 2-point losses on the road to good SEC teams this week sent Kentucky flying down the rankings, but should it have? Kentucky is still the best team in the conference, even if the standings don't show it right now, and I'm worried that the voters won't forgive another loss, which is quite likely when they face Vanderbilt on the road this weekend.

NBA Player of the Day

LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 42 pts, 8 reb, 2 blk, 15-23 FG, 12-14 FT

Yes, Carmelo Anthony was better than Aldridge in nearly every category last night, including points, rebounds, blocks, and shooting percentage, but there was one very important category where Aldridge beat Anthony last night - wins. The All-Star snub's 42 points were a career high, and Portland pulled within 2 games of passing Denver for the 7th seed in the playoffs.

Predictions - 8 Feb

NBA

76ers at Hawks - Hawks by 4

Clippers at Magic - Magic by 10

Spurs at Pistons - Spurs by 7

Pacers at Heat - Heat by 10

Raptors at Bucks - Bucks by 6

Grizzlies at Thunder - Thunder by 5

Timberwolves at Rockets - Rockets by 9

College Basketball

Utah at (6) San Diego State - San Diego State by 20

Indiana at (12) Purdue - Purdue by 15

Tennessee at (18) Kentucky - Kentucky by 15

Prediction Results - 7 Feb

NBA: 3/8 (.375) 415/581 overall (.714)

College Basketball: 2/2 (1.000) 391/481 overall (.813)

Upsets: 0/1 (.000) 102/167 overall (.611)