College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 1 Feb

This week, two teams each exited my overrated and underrated rankings, and all went the right direction. Florida State was blown out by Clemson, just as I predicted, and lost their standing in the national polls. Syracuse lost to Marquette, which I saw coming, but what I didn't see was the loss to Seton Hall. North Carolina entered the AP top 25 this week after blowing out NC State on Saturday, and Marquette also made a big move in the polls after upsetting Syracuse and nearly beating UConn also. Here are this week's updated rankings, with last week's ranking in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Minnesota (1)

2. Utah State

3. Texas A&M (2)

4. Connecticut (3)

5. Villanova

Minnesota lost at Purdue by 12 this week, just like I said, but still maintained the spot in the rankings they "earned" by beating the same Purdue team by 3 a week earlier. After they lose twice this week, to unranked Indiana and top-ranked Ohio State, they should move back to the ranks of the unranked, where they should remain.

I hate to put a mid-major here, especially one with a 20-2 record that plays in a town called Logan, but Utah State has yet to beat anybody of worth this season. I do think they are a good team that should definitely make the tournament this season, but I don't think they're quite ready for the top 25. Blowouts of Nevada and Boise State this week could change my mind.

Texas A&M lost by 9 to unranked Nebraska this week, yet somehow was kept at #16 by the national voters. To repay the voters' confidence, they played one of their worst games of the entire season last night against the Texas Longhorns, getting blown out by 20 points by their in-state rival for the second straight week. They may be able to beat Baylor this week, but it may be so close that the Aggies can't handle it.

Just when I thought UConn had earned their way out of my overrated rankings with their huge road win at Marquette, they lost a home game to Louisville, a team that has struggled on the road all season. They should be able to beat struggling Syracuse this week, but a road game at Seton Hall could be a trap if the Huskies aren't careful.

Villanova has now lost 3 of their last 4 and is still ranked at #12 in the AP poll. The one win in that stretch was against Syracuse, a win that is losing strength with every day, yet they are not falling down the rankings like they should. They play Marquette and West Virginia this week, both at home, but chances are they will not be able to beat both of these very solid conference rivals this week.

Underrated

1. Maryland (4)

2. Belmont (1)

3. Saint Mary's

4. Washington (5)

5. Illinois

Maryland beat two decent teams on the road this week, including a 24-point blowout at Virginia, yet they are not receiving votes. Tomorrow is the biggest game of the season for the Terrapins, with Duke coming to town, and as of right now, the game is too close for me to call, but don't be surprised if Duke loses again.

Belmont's loss at Lipscomb took a little bit of the bloom off the rose, but the Bruins roared back with huge wins over Florida-Gulf Coast and Stetson. Their next opponent, Jacksonville, may be the best opponent they have left, but I don't see them blowing another conference game.

I wasn't too impressed by the Gaels' loss at Portland either, but the win Saint Mary's posted at Gonzaga should have been enough to keep them ranked. The loss may not look as good as their other 3, but Portland is in the top 25% of college basketball teams and a possible threat to pull off an upset in the WCC Tournament. If the Gaels lose again this week, I may have to eat my words.

Washington's loss at rival Washington State wasn't that big of a surprise, but it's being treated that way, despite the fact that the Cougars have been sitting just outside my top 25 for a month. Washington should rebound nicely this week with a road trip to the Oregon schools, who represent the dregs of the Pac 10, but they need to beat Arizona and Washington State later this season for anybody to notice them.

Illinois has now lost 4 of their last 5 games and was dropped from the top 25 after being ranked for most of the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to Northwestern this week too, but that doesn't mean they were overrated. They are just going through a tough section of the schedule, and when they upset Minnesota and Purdue in two straight games next week, people will say that they are back, but they really never left.

NBA Player of the Day

Blake Griffin - LAC - 32 pts, 11 reb, 6 ast, 13-20 FG, 6-6 FT

This sort of stat line is starting to look normal for Griffin, who has the Clippers on a 9-game home winning streak, the 3rd-longest in team history. Despite leading scorer Eric Gordon sitting out, the Clippers have continued to win, and the team just received news that Gordon may be back much earlier than expected.

Predictions - 1 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Wizards at Hornets - Hornets by 12

Spurs at Trail Blazers - Spurs by 4

Celtics at Kings - Celts by 9

Rockets at Lakers - Lakers by 8

College Basketball

(2) Kansas at Texas Tech - Kansas by 17

(10) Purdue at (18) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 5

(11) Kentucky at Mississippi - Kentucky by 8

(24) Vanderbilt at (23) Florida - Florida by 3

Penn State at (24) Illinois - Illinois by 13

North Carolina at Boston College - North Carolina by 1

Prediction Results - 31 Jan

NBA: 5/7 (.714) 382/530 overall (.721)

College Basketball: 2/2 (1.000) 349/431 overall (.810)

Upsets: 2/2 (1.000) 94/151 overall (.623)