College Basketball Tournament Predictions - 17 Feb

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has a regular feature he calls Bracketology, in which he predicts which teams will be chosen to participate in the NCAA Tournament and where they will be seeded, and he has a very high success rate. Based on his predictions for teams and seeding, I have applied my formula to determine which teams are most likely to win each game, and I'm sharing the results with you. The number in parentheses is the team's seed, and any team in italics represents an upset.

Round of 32

(1) Ohio State

(8) Xavier

(5) Arizona

(4) Louisville

(6) Missouri

(3) Florida

(7) Illinois

(2) Duke

(1) Kansas

(8) Florida State

(5) Vanderbilt

(4) Connecticut

(11) Michigan State

(3) Georgetown

(7) Washington

(2) BYU

(1) Pittsburgh

(8) George Mason

(5) Syracuse

(4) North Carolina

(11) Kansas State

(3) Purdue

(7) Saint John's

(2) San Diego State

(1) Texas

(8) Saint Mary's

(5) Kentucky

(4) Villanova

(6) West Virginia

(3) Wisconsin

(10) Virginia Tech

(2) Notre Dame

Sweet 16

(1) Ohio State

(5) Arizona

(6) Missouri

(2) Duke

(1) Kansas

(5) Vanderbilt

(3) Georgetown

(2) BYU

(1) Pittsburgh

(4) North Carolina

(3) Purdue

(2) San Diego State

(1) Texas

(5) Kentucky

(3) Wisconsin

(2) Notre Dame

Elite Eight

(1) Ohio State

(2) Duke

(1) Kansas

(2) BYU

(1) Pittsburgh

(3) Purdue

(1) Texas

(3) Wisconsin

Final Four

(2) Duke

(1) Kansas

(3) Purdue

(1) Texas

Championship

(2) Duke

(1) Texas

Champion

(1) Texas

I have predicted 12 upsets over the course of this tournament, but that does not mean that there will only be 12. These are just the most likely ones, but history has shown that there will be other unexpected ones, and many of the winners I picked were very close to losing. When the actual bracket is announced, I plan to do a full rundown of each team's chance of winning it all.

NBA Player of the Day

LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 34 pts, 7 reb, 4 ast, 13-18 FG, 8-9 FT

Aldridge has the Trail Blazers on fire heading into the All-Star break, with 6 straight wins (the league's longest streak) and 5th place in the West currently. Aldridge should come back from the break well-rested and ready to continue his march to the playoffs, although had he made the All-Star team like he deserved, he wouldn't be getting this important weekend of rest.

Predictions - 17 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Spurs at Bulls - Bulls by 1

Mavericks at Suns - Mavs by 1

College Basketball

Washington State at (13) Arizona - Arizona by 12

Richmond at (25) Temple - Temple by 10

East Tennessee State at Belmont - Belmont by 17

Washington At Arizona State - Washington by 11

Prediction Results - 16 Feb

NBA: 6-6 (.500) 457-194 overall (.702)

College Basketball: 10-1 (.909) 442-102 overall (.813)

Upsets: 5-3 (.625) 117-77 overall (.603)