Starting with today's standings, I took each team's remaining schedule and added up it's chances of winning each of its remaining games, then used that to predict where each team would stack up at the end of the regular season. Assuming that there are no major injuries or trades, the teams should end up within 3 or 4 games of these predictions by the end of the regular season. Each team's current conference standing is in parentheses after its projected record.
Eastern Conference
1. Boston (61-21) (1)
2. Miami (60-22) (3)
3. Chicago (58-24) (2)
4. Orlando (53-29) (5)
5. Atlanta (49-33) (4)
6. New York (42-40) (6)
7. Philadelphia (40-42) (7)
8. Milwaukee (37-45) (10)
9. Indiana (36-46) (9)
10. Charlotte (34-48) (8)
11. Detroit (30-52) (11)
12. New Jersey (25-57) (12)
13. Toronto (24-58) (14)
14. Washington (24-58) (13)
15. Cleveland (14-68) (15)
There are 3 teams with a good chance at being the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but Boston's current lead in the standings gives them the inside edge. Orlando and Atlanta will almost definitely face off in the first round, with Orlando probably at home. Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Indiana, and Charlotte will be fighting for the final 2 playoff spots, and the 76ers are looking pretty safe for spot #7. Any one of the other 3 could take the last spot, but Milwaukee is the best of the 3 overall, though Charlotte has been hot lately and could sneak in.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio (64-18) (1)
2. LA Lakers (56-26) (2)
3. Dallas (54-28) (3)
4. Oklahoma City (51-31) (4)
5. New Orleans (51-31) (5)
6. Denver (49-33) (6)
7. Memphis (44-38) (9)
8. Utah (44-38) (7)
9. Portland (42-40) (8)
10. Houston (40-42) (11)
11. Phoenix (39-43) (10)
12. Golden State (34-48) (12)
13. LA Clippers (32-50) (13)
14. Sacramento (22-60) (14)
15. Minnesota (21-61) (15)
The Spurs have already wrapped up the #1 seed and most likely home court throughout the playoffs. Oklahoma City's win over New Orleans last night gave them the tiebreaker should the two teams end up tied at the end of the regular season, which would give them home court in their first round matchup. Denver will make the playoffs (assuming Carmelo is not traded for nothing), and could challenge for the 4th seed. Either Portland or Houston could pass the Jazz or Grizzlies for a spot in the playoffs, and the Suns have a very slim chance at making it in also, although it would be very surprising.
Playoffs
Close series are in italics.
First Round
Celtics over Bucks
Heat over 76ers
Bulls over Knicks
Magic over Hawks
Spurs over Jazz
Lakers over Grizzlies
Mavericks over Nuggets
Hornets over Thunder
Second Round
Celtics over Magic
Heat over Bulls
Spurs over Hornets
Lakers over Mavericks
Conference Finals
Heat over Celtics
Spurs over Lakers
Finals
Heat over Spurs
The Heat are my current favorite to win the title, but any of the top 4 seeds in the East and either of the top two seeds in the West have a realistic chance at the title, and the Mavericks could possible make the Finals, although I don't think they would win. The final 8 teams, in order of likelihood to win the championship, are:
Miami
San Antonio
Boston
Chicago
LA Lakers
Orlando
Dallas
New Orleans
NBA Player of the Day
Kevin Durant - 43 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast, 14-19 FG, 5-7 3P, 10-11 FT
Durant topped 40 points for the third time in the past 4 games as he led the Thunder to a very important win over the New Orleans Hornets. The win put Oklahoma City in 4th place in the West, just ahead of the Hornets, and gave them the season series, which will be the first tiebreaker if they end up tied at the end of the season.
Predictions - 3 Feb
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Heat at Magic - Magic by 1
Bucks at Warriors - Warriors by 1
Spurs at Lakers - Lakers by 2
College Basketball
Michigan at (1) Ohio State - Ohio State by 20
(8) Notre Dame at DePaul - Notre Dame by 13
(19) Washington at Oregon State - Washington by 16
(22) Arizona at Stanford - Arizona by 6
Belmont at Jacksonville - Belmont by 7
Pepperdine at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 24
Prediction Results - 2 Feb
NBA: 8/11 (.727) 393/545 overall (.721)
College Basketball: 7/9 (.778) 361/446 overall (.809)
Upsets: 2/4 (.500) 97/156 overall (.622)
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