Golden State has taken a commanding 2-0 lead over Dallas in the Conference Finals, though we know from recent experience that a 2-0 lead is not enough. Miami and Boston are tied at 1-1, giving the Celtics home court advantage, but it's not quite enough to make them the overall favorite today. Here are each team's updated odds, with change since the start of the Conference Finals in parentheses:
Odds of Making NBA Finals
(3) Warriors - 87.8% (+24.9)
(2) Celtics - 63.8% (+4.1)
(1) Heat - 36.2% (-4.1)
(4) Mavericks - 12.2% (-24.9)
The ECF is now a 5-game series with Boston holding home court advantage, which accounts for the slight shift in the odds toward the Celtics. Golden State has a huge advantage, but with 3 of the next 4 potential games in Dallas, the series is not over yet.
Odds of Winning NBA Finals
(3) Warriors - 42.7% (+13.0)
(2) Celtics - 36.2% (+0.4)
(1) Heat - 17.0% (-4.1)
(4) Mavericks - 4.1% (-9.3)
Golden State is the favorite again, Boston stayed steady, Miami slipped a little, while Dallas is in trouble, but not out of it.
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