Sunday, September 27, 2015

College Football Rankings - 27 Sep

We are now deep enough into the season that there is enough data available to remove all of last season's data from the equation, which hurt some teams that performed well last season but haven't quite lived up to it this year, like TCU and Ohio State. Many of the ranking changes this week will not seem to make sense because of this data being removed, but as the season goes on it will become clearer and clearer. Now that the old data is gone I am also including each team's rank in terms of Average Margin of Victory (MOV), which would have been skewed before. You will see that the best teams have a combination of good Strength of Schedule (SOS) and margin of victory rankings, while some teams (Baylor, for example) are very high in one and very low in the other, leading to a lower rankings overall. Here are this week's full rankings:





Rec
ProjRec

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
SOS
MOV
1
14
Alabama
-37.78
3
1
10
2
2
37
2
2
Ole Miss
-37.5
4
0
12
0
44
3
3
29
UCLA
-34.44
4
0
11
1
7
17
4
57
Michigan
-32.96
3
1
11
1
6
35
5
12
Florida State
-29.82
3
0
11
1
30
10
6
5
Georgia
-29.74
4
0
11
1
63
5
7
3
Oklahoma
-28.19
3
0
11
1
16
32
8
8
Georgia Tech
-26.75
2
2
8
4
37
9
9
26
Brigham Young
-25.76
2
2
10
2
1
85
10
50
Boise State
-25.46
3
1
10
2
31
18
11
52
Utah
-24.58
4
0
10
2
29
23
12
42
Wisconsin
-24.55
3
1
10
2
48
26
13
19
Notre Dame
-24.23
4
0
10
2
35
28
14
1
Ohio State
-23.93
4
0
11
1
46
25
15
7
USC
-23.5
3
1
8
4
83
6
16
25
Middle Tennessee
-23.38
2
2
9
3
45
19
17
4
LSU
-23.17
3
0
9
2
10
39
18
18
Baylor
-23.15
3
0
10
2
122
1
19
21
West Virginia
-22.68
3
0
10
2
115
4
20
9
Clemson
-22.53
3
0
9
3
60
14
21
38
Duke
-21.98
3
1
10
2
56
24
22
11
California
-20.84
4
0
9
3
69
11
23
15
Stanford
-20.78
3
1
9
3
13
42
24
6
Mississippi State
-20.41
3
1
9
3
42
29
25
40
North Carolina State
-19.1
4
0
9
3
119
2
26
13
Tennessee
-19.08
2
2
8
4
38
38
27
37
Miami (FL)
-17.53
3
0
8
4
90
15
28
39
Appalachian State
-17.1
2
1
11
1
80
8
29
112
UNLV
-17.02
1
3
8
4
5
77
30
24
Northwestern
-16.8
4
0
9
3
51
40
31
47
Washington
-16.66
2
2
7
5
34
50
32
17
Memphis
-16.16
4
0
9
3
103
7
33
28
Nebraska
-15.8
2
2
8
4
25
63
34
44
Boston College
-15.72
3
1
7
5
84
34
35
46
Northern Illinois
-15.47
2
2
9
3
19
62
36
45
Air Force
-15.38
2
1
9
3
82
27
37
58
Oklahoma State
-14.99
4
0
9
3
102
12
38
72
Vanderbilt
-14.08
1
3
6
6
9
80
39
10
TCU
-13.69
4
0
8
4
106
13
40
51
Illinois
-13.3
3
1
8
4
61
43
41
56
Western Kentucky
-13.27
3
1
9
3
41
48
42
59
Houston
-13.04
3
0
10
2
105
21
43
36
Temple
-12.42
3
0
10
2
33
51
44
54
Kansas State
-12.4
3
0
8
4
110
20
45
33
North Carolina
-12.22
3
1
7
5
112
22
46
27
Arizona
-11.8
3
1
7
5
77
41
47
16
Texas A&M
-11.77
4
0
8
4
88
30
48
32
Louisiana Tech
-11.76
2
2
8
4
53
45
49
53
Colorado
-11.57
3
1
8
5
100
31
50
22
Michigan State
-10.92
4
0
9
3
59
55
51
55
Tulsa
-9.926
2
1
8
4
21
70
52
48
Navy
-9.58
3
0
8
4
118
16
53
43
Bowling Green
-8.96
2
2
8
4
17
73
54
49
Southern Miss
-8.515
2
2
9
3
43
65
55
86
Louisiana-Monroe
-8.312
1
2
8
5
4
100
56
31
Toledo
-7.624
3
0
9
2
85
46
57
35
Florida
-7.352
4
0
7
5
101
44
58
83
Syracuse
-7.132
3
1
6
6
86
60
59
20
Virginia Tech
-6.914
2
2
5
7
73
53
60
62
Louisville
-6.479
1
3
5
7
58
72
61
85
South Florida
-6.308
1
2
7
5
36
69
62
41
Penn State
-6.124
3
1
6
6
71
64
63
78
Cincinnati
-4.813
2
2
6
6
70
61
64
61
Colorado State
-4.588
2
2
7
5
97
52
65
67
Texas
-4.257
1
3
4
8
12
108
66
23
Texas Tech
-4.158
3
1
6
6
116
36
67
81
Iowa
-2.99
4
0
7
5
121
33
68
73
South Carolina
-2.78
2
2
5
7
24
93
69
71
Georgia Southern
-2.759
3
1
8
4
98
54
70
70
Pittsburgh
-2.725
2
1
5
7
79
57
71
63
Buffalo
-2.416
2
2
7
5
96
56
72
101
Oregon State
-1.938
2
2
4
8
27
97
73
87
Akron
-1.756
2
2
8
4
55
78
74
103
San Jose State
-1.225
2
2
5
7
75
67
75
64
Kentucky
-0.88
3
1
6
6
68
79
76
74
Auburn
-0.765
2
2
5
7
26
96
77
95
Utah State
-0.55
1
2
6
6
20
94
78
60
Minnesota
-0.337
3
1
4
8
54
86
79
69
Marshall
-0.299
3
1
8
4
111
49
80
109
Troy
-0.022
1
2
7
5
18
101
81
92
Indiana
0.2131
4
0
7
5
89
71
82
77
Ohio
0.3018
3
1
7
5
113
47
83
75
Hawaii
0.437
2
2
6
7
15
109
84
106
Central Michigan
0.937
1
3
5
7
40
89
85
76
Missouri
1.0917
3
1
5
7
108
58
86
102
Wake Forest
2.0779
2
2
3
9
94
68
87
90
Maryland
2.3137
2
2
4
8
49
98
88
93
Virginia
2.7734
1
3
2
10
8
119
89
91
Florida International
2.8352
2
2
6
6
72
74
90
34
Arkansas
3.627
1
3
3
9
91
87
91
100
East Carolina
3.9827
2
2
5
7
52
91
92
66
Arkansas State
4.1855
1
3
6
6
47
95
93
89
Texas State
4.3549
1
3
6
6
22
113
94
88
Western Michigan
4.7952
1
3
5
7
32
106
95
96
Iowa State
5.1231
1
2
3
9
87
82
96
68
Arizona State
5.1341
2
2
4
8
64
102
97
79
New Mexico
5.4013
2
2
5
7
117
59
98
104
Nevada
5.4498
2
2
6
6
65
99
99
30
Oregon
5.53
2
2
4
8
93
83
100
99
Massachusetts
5.8594
0
3
4
8
3
125
101
110
Florida Atlantic
6.2232
1
3
4
8
39
107
102
111
Ball State
6.3545
2
2
5
7
67
84
103
65
Rice
7.6031
2
2
6
6
76
81
104
82
San Diego State
7.748
1
3
4
8
74
92
105
84
Louisiana-Lafayette
9.1162
1
2
5
7
104
88
106
80
Rutgers
9.1687
2
2
3
9
123
66
107
105
Kent State
9.2127
1
3
3
9
66
103
108
98
Purdue
9.5064
1
3
2
10
78
105
109
116
Fresno State
9.622
1
3
3
9
14
122
110
119
Connecticut
10.287
2
2
4
8
109
90
111
114
Tulane
11.425
1
2
3
9
23
123
112
108
UCF
11.514
0
4
2
10
57
112
113
126
Army
12.443
1
3
3
9
120
75
114
121
UTSA
12.557
0
4
4
8
11
126
115
122
Miami (OH)
16.542
1
3
3
9
28
124
116
97
Southern Methodist
16.951
1
3
2
10
92
114
117
94
South Alabama
17.161
2
2
4
8
50
120
118
118
Old Dominion
19.656
2
2
4
8
99
116
119
120
Charlotte
19.76
2
2
3
9
107
111
120
107
Washington State
20.261
2
1
2
10
128
76
121
127
Kansas
23.333
0
3
0
12
95
118
122
125
Idaho
24.061
1
3
2
10
62
128
123
124
Eastern Michigan
25.622
1
3
1
11
126
104
124
115
UTEP
30.247
2
2
3
9
114
115
125
113
Georgia State
30.416
1
2
2
10
124
110
126
117
North Texas
31.451
0
3
1
11
81
127
127
128
Wyoming
35.62
0
4
0
12
127
117
128
123
New Mexico State
37.168
0
3
0
12
125
121

Alabama is the #1 team in the country this week due to its #2 overall strength of schedule so far this season. Besides playing Ole Miss, currently #2, they also faced Wisconsin (#12), and a very underrated Middle Tennessee team (#16). It may seem strange to see the Crimson Tide ahead of the only team to beat them, but Ole Miss has played nothing but JV squads outside of the Alabama game, and they struggled badly yesterday against Vanderbilt, the perennial laughingstock of the SEC.

UCLA also made a big move this week due to being the only team in the country in the top 20 in both margin of victory and strength of schedule. They beat a tough BYU team last week before demolishing Arizona yesterday in what should have been the game of the week, and they are projected to be the team that finally ends the Pac 12 North's run as conference champions.

Michigan moved into the top 5 this week as well, and a lot has changed since their loss at Utah to open the season. First of all, Utah has turned out to be much better than anyone thought, so a 7-point loss on the road is actually pretty good. They made a huge statement yesterday with a 31-0 shutout of BYU, which had previously beaten Boise State and Nebraska and nearly took down UCLA. Maybe changing nothing but your coach really can make a difference.

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