Saturday, August 30, 2014

NFL Preseason Rankings - 2014

Last season, I picked Seattle to beat Denver in the Super Bowl before the season ever began, and that prediction turned out to be correct. It has been 10 years since a team has successfully defended its Super Bowl title, and Seattle is trying to break that streak, but it won't be easy to even win their own division. Starting with last season's final data, I have analyzed each team's roster moves and schedule and combined it all together to project each team's record for this season, as well as full playoff results. My initial rankings are below:





Record
Proj
SOS
Rank
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
Overall
1
2
San Francisco
-16.5612


13
3

4
2
1
Seattle
-15.7751


13
3

6
3
5
Carolina
-7.07886


11
5

13
4
10
San Diego
-6.35415


10
6

8
5
16
Miami
-6.17126


11
5

28
6
8
Kansas City
-4.39326


9
7

7
7
9
Cincinnati
-4.32669


11
5

21
8
7
New England
-3.93026


9
7

23
9
11
Indianapolis
-3.84052


11
5

30
10
3
Denver
-3.51162


8
8

5
11
4
New Orleans
-3.41952


9
7

19
12
6
Arizona
-3.39549


8
8

3
13
19
Tampa Bay
-3.07649


10
6

16
14
26
NY Jets
-3.01029


9
7

15
15
14
Dallas
-2.43692


9
7

14
16
13
Philadelphia
0.478901


8
8

18
17
12
Saint Louis
1.229065


6
10

2
18
22
Buffalo
2.81265


7
9

27
19
17
Detroit
2.962201


7
9

24
20
18
Pittsburgh
3.392732


8
8

26
21
21
Atlanta
3.49321


7
9

9
22
20
Green Bay
5.502388


6
10

11
23
31
Washington
5.734292


6
10

10
24
24
Chicago
6.395868


6
10

17
25
15
Tennessee
6.65067


7
9

32
26
27
Minnesota
7.212893


6
10

22
27
23
Baltimore
7.531852


6
10

20
28
25
NY Giants
8.208296


5
11

12
29
30
Oakland
8.460439


4
12

1
30
28
Houston
9.991276


6
10

31
31
32
Jacksonville
12.0842


5
11

29
32
29
Cleveland
12.21521


4
12

25

The San Francisco 49ers have one of the league's toughest schedules, playing 6 games within their own division and 4 against the equally tough AFC West, but this is a solid team that was in the Super Bowl just 2 years ago, still has Frank Gore, who has broken 1000 yards in 7 of the past 8 seasons, and will be getting Michael Crabtree back from an injury. Whether or not they beat Seattle in the division, they will be playoff bound again.

Nearly half of Super Bowl participants in the past decade have missed the playoffs completely the following season, but Seattle does not look like the next victim of that curse. The Seahawks have a schedule that is nearly as tough as San Fran's, but they also have the league's best defense and a very capable young quarterback, along with Marshawn Lynch, who is coming off his third straight season of at least 1200 yards and 11 touchdowns.

San Diego barely made it into the playoffs last season after winning their final 4 games, but this season they will be looking to win the division, with Denver coming off an embarrassing Super Bowl loss and losing a lot of players to free agency, suspension, and injury. Will the Chargers finally win their first Super Bowl this season? Not likely, but they at least have a shot at getting there.

Miami looks to be one of the most improved teams in the league this season, with last season's distractions behind them and a very soft schedule that includes only 6 teams that made the playoffs last year. They lured Knowshon Moreno from Denver, but they will have to see how he recovers from his knee injury. Ryan Tannehill, meanwhile, continues to improve heading into his 3rd year, so this could be the year the Patriots finally hand over the division title.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card

(6) Tampa Bay over (3) Dallas
(5) Seattle over (4) Detroit
(6) New England over (3) Cincinnati
(4) San Diego over (5) NY Jets

Divisional Round

(1) San Francisco over (6) Tampa Bay
(5) Seattle over (2) Carolina
(6) New England over (1) Indianapolis
(4) San Diego over (2) Miami

Conference Championships

(5) Seattle over (1) San Francisco
(4) San Diego over (6) New England

Super Bowl

Seattle over San Diego

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