NFL Playoff Odds - 7 Jan

Wild Card weekend is over, and only one home team won last weekend, but it took an historic comeback by the Colts to beat the Chiefs and buck the trend. I've updated each team's odds of advancing through each remaining round, and I've included how much each team's odds have changed in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Denver - 74.1% (+1.2)
2. Seattle - 66.8% (-1.1)
3. New England - 59.6% (+2.2)
4. Carolina - 54.8% (-11.3)
5. San Francisco - 45.2% (+13.4)
6. Indianapolis - 40.4% (+24.6)
7. New Orleans - 33.2% (+12.8)
8. San Diego - 25.9% (+17.0)

Seattle and Carolina were hurt by the two better teams advancing on Wild Card weekend, giving each a bigger challenge than the other division winners would have given them. Denver and New England were helped out by the lower-rated teams winning both games this weekend, allowing them a slightly easier path through the next round.

Odds of Making Super Bowl

1. Denver - 53.3% (+2.3)
2. Seattle - 43.4% (-2.3)
3. Carolina - 23.1% (-4.5)
4. New England - 22.3% (+0.3)
5. San Francisco - 19.6% (+5.2)
6. New Orleans - 14.0% (+5.1)
7. Indianapolis - 13.7% (+7.8)
8. San Diego - 10.7% (+7.7)

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Denver - 27.9% (+1.6)
2. Seattle - 26.3% (-1.7)
3. Carolina - 11.8% (-2.5)
4. San Francisco - 10.3% (+2.5)
5. New England - 8.4% (+0.0)
6. New Orleans - 7.0% (+2.5)
7. Indianapolis - 4.7% (+2.7)
8. San Diego - 3.6% (+2.7)

The only team whose odds increased without winning last weekend was Denver, who must feel like they hit the lottery with Kansas City being eliminated and Indianapolis going to New England. While they may be excited to be facing the lowest seed in the AFC, they should be careful, because the Chargers were the only road team to win in Denver this season.

Updated Playoff Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Second Round

Broncos over Chargers
Patriots over Colts
Seahawks over Saints
49ers over Panthers

Conference Finals

Broncos over Patriots
Seahawks over 49ers

Super Bowl

Broncos 32, Seahawks 31

The only real change here is that I have moved the Patriots into the spot that Cincinnati had last week as the team Denver beats to make the Super Bowl.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Washington at Charlotte - Bobcats by 2
Philadelphia at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 7
Toronto at Indiana - Pacers by 9
New Orleans at Miami - Heat by 8
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 4
Phoenix at Chicago - Suns by 2
San Antonio at Memphis - Spurs by 4
Golden State at Milwaukee - Warriors by 12
LA Lakers at Dallas - Mavericks by 9
Boston at Denver - Nuggets by 7
Oklahoma City at Utah - Thunder by 12
Portland at Sacramento - Trail Blazers by 6

College Basketball

(7) Baylor at (9) Iowa State - Cyclones by 17
Georgia Tech at (16) Duke - Blue Devils by 21
Navy at Boston - Terriers by 14
James Madison at Charleston - Cougars by 7
New Hampshire at Brown - Bears by 18
Hartford at Dartmouth - Big Green by 14
Saint Louis at Rhode Island - Billikens by 7
Tennessee at LSU - Tigers by 4
Hampton at North Carolina Central - Eagles by 15
(25) Kansas State at TCU - Wildcats by 1
Middle Tennessee at Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 7
Youngstown State at Illinois-Chicago - Penguins by 3
Green Bay at Chicago State - Phoenix by 11
(2) Syracuse at Virginia Tech - Orange by 5
(3) Ohio State at (5) Michigan State - Spartans by 5
Cincinnati at Houston - Bearcats by 9
North Carolina State at Notre Dame - Fightin Irish by 9
Creighton at DePaul - Bluejays by 11
Vanderbilt at Alabama - Crimson Tide by 10

Pick of the Day #59

Duke

It's finally the Blue Devils' turn as my pick of the day. They face Georgia Tech in the attempt to run my streak to 59 to open the season.

Prediction Results

Bowls: 1-0 (1.000) 18-17 overall (.514)
NBA: 2-1 (.667) 323-183 overall (.638)
College Basketball: 15-3 (.833) 2126-560 overall (.792)
Upsets: 5-0 (1.000) 261-153 overall (.630)

I have now picked 13 straight college basketball upsets correctly.