NFL Playoff Predictions - 2014

The NFL postseason opens up this Saturday, and I've calculated the odds of each team advancing through each round of the playoffs and eventually winning the Super Bowl, and I'm also comparing my current predictions with those I made back in the preseason, which you can find here. You might be surprised at how accurate those predictions were.

Playoff Teams

In the AFC, I picked all 4 division winners correctly in the preseason, and not only did I get all 4, but I seeded them correctly as well, with each team's predicted record landing within 1 game of their actual finish before a single game was played. The two teams I picked to grab the Wild Card spots ended up within 2 games of making the playoffs, including last season's Super Bowl champs, the Ravens, who just missed out this year.

In the NFC, I picked 3 of the 6 teams correctly, and seeded 2 of those correctly, meaning I picked the playoff seeding of half of this year's playoff teams correctly from the preseason. Three of my predicted division champs did not qualify for the postseason, with the Bears losing out on the last day and the Redskins and Falcons never getting close.

Odds of Winning Wild Card Game

1. San Francisco - 75.2%
2. Cincinnati - 62.3%
3. New Orleans - 60.7%
4. Indianapolis - 50.3%
5. Kansas City - 49.7%
6. Philadelphia - 39.3%
7. San Diego - 37.7%
8. Green Bay - 24.8%

Odds of Making Conference Title Game

1. Denver - 72.9%
2. Seattle - 67.9%
3. Carolina - 66.1%
4. New England - 57.4%
5. San Francisco - 31.8%
6. Cincinnati - 26.6%
7. New Orleans - 20.4%
8. Kansas City - 18.4%
9. Indianapolis - 15.8%
10. Philadelphia - 10.5%
11. San Diego - 8.9%
12. Green Bay - 3.4%

My preseason picks for conference title participants were the Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, and Bears. Three of those 4 currently have the best odds of making that come true, but every team has a shot to get there.

Odds of Making the Super Bowl

1. Denver - 51.0%
2. Seattle - 45.7%
3. Carolina - 27.6%
4. New England - 22.0%
5. San Francisco - 14.4%
6. Cincinnati - 10.8%
7. New Orleans - 8.9%
8. Kansas City - 7.9%
9. Indianapolis - 5.9%
10. San Diego - 3.0%
11. Philadelphia - 2.8%
12. Green Bay - 0.6%

In the preseason, I picked Denver and Seattle to play in the Super Bowl, and the odds of that exact matchup happening is 23.3%. The upstart Panthers are still dangerous, as are the Patriots and 49ers, who have been to the big game pretty recently.

Odds of Winning the Super Bowl

1. Seattle - 28.0%
2. Denver - 26.3%
3. Carolina - 14.3%
4. New England - 8.4%
5. San Francisco - 7.8%
6. New Orleans - 4.5%
7. Cincinnati - 4.0%
8. Kansas City - 3.1%
9. Indianapolis - 2.0%
10. Philadelphia - 1.0%
11. San Diego - 0.9%
12. Green Bay - 0.1%

Seattle was my pick to win the Super Bowl from day one, and they are still the most likely to come away with the Lombardi trophy this season. The odds of an NFC team winning the big game are 55.8%, with 4 of the top 6 teams coming from that conference.

My Playoff Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Wild Card

Bengals over Chargers
Chiefs over Colts
Saints over Eagles
49ers over Packers

Second Round

Broncos over Chiefs
Bengals over Patriots
Seahawks over Saints
49ers over Panthers

Conference Championships

Broncos over Bengals
Seahawks over 49ers

Super Bowl

Broncos 32, Seahawks 31

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

College Football

Nebraska vs. (22) Georgia - Bulldogs by 15
UNLV vs. North Texas - Mean Green by 10
Iowa vs. (16) LSU - Tigers by 10
(19) Wisconsin vs. (9) South Carolina - Badgers by 2
(5) Stanford vs. (4) Michigan State - Cardinal by 13
(15) UCF vs. (6) Baylor - Bears by 24

NBA

Dallas at Washington - Mavericks by 1
Indiana at Toronto - Pacers by 4
New Orleans at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 7
Philadelphia at Denver - Nuggets by 13
Charlotte at LA Clippers - Clippers by 12

College Basketball

Winthrop at Dayton - Flyers by 16
Warner at Florida Atlantic - Owls by 27
Charleston at Davidson - Wildcats by 7
Liberty at Delaware - Fightin Blue Hens by 19
UNLV at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 2
Loyola (IL) at Indiana State - Sycamores by 16
Boston College at Harvard - Crimson by 21
Western State at Wyoming - Cowboys by 37
Lipscomb at Florida Gulf Coast - Eagles by 3
SMU at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 9
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville - Dolphins by 2
Mercer at North Florida - Bears by 7
Northern Kentucky at Stetson - Hatters by 2
Old Dominion at William & Mary - Tribe by 5
Temple at Rutgers - Owls by 6
Bradley at Northern Iowa - Panthers by 15
Utah State at Air Force - Aggies by 9
Evansville at Drake - Bulldogs by 17
(21) San Diego State at Colorado State - Aztecs by 10
Nevada at San Jose State - Spartans by 2

Pick of the Day #53

Delaware

The Fightin' Blue Hens face the Liberty Flames today, and though each has the same overall record today, the Hens have played a much tougher schedule and played well against several good teams, including Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Richmond.

Prediction Results

Bowls: 4-0 (1.000) 15-8 overall (.652)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 4-2 overall (.667)
NBA: 5-3 (.625) 298-168 overall (.639)
College Basketball: 27-4 (.871) 1928-490 overall (.797)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 223-135 overall (.623)