NFL Rankings - 1 Nov

The NFL season is halfway over for several teams, and there is still one undefeated team, and that team still does not qualify for my top 5 based on their performance level and strength of schedule. The other 2 teams that were 4-0 have taken very different paths since their first loss, Houston rising to the occasion and proving their dominance and Arizona wilting back to where preseason expectations had them placed. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and ESPN's Power Rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (1) Houston (6-1) BYE (3)

2. (3) San Francisco (6-2) W (4)
3. (6) Denver (4-3) W (9)
4. (7) New England (5-3) W (8)

5. (5) NY Giants (6-2) W (2)
6. (10) Atlanta (7-0) W (1)

7. (2) Chicago (6-1) W (5)

8. (4) Green Bay (5-3) W (6)
9. (21) Tampa Bay (3-4) W (21)
10. (15) Miami (4-3) W (12)
11. (8) Seattle (4-4) L (13)

12. (18) Pittsburgh (4-3) W (10)
13. (16) Dallas (3-4) L (13)

14. (25) Carolina (1-6) L (30)

15. (19) Baltimore (5-2) BYE (7)
16. (11) Detroit (3-4) W (17)
17. (13) Washington (3-5) L (19)
18. (23) San Diego (3-4) L (20)

19. (9) Minnesota (5-3) L (11)
20. (20) New Orleans (2-5) L (26)
21. (24) Cincinnati (3-4) BYE (22)
22. (14) Arizona (4-4) L (16)

23. (17) NY Jets (3-5) L (25)
24. (22) Philadelphia (3-4) L (18)

25. (30) Oakland (3-4) W (24)

26. (27) Cleveland (2-6) W (29)
27. (12) Saint Louis (3-5) L (23)

28. (26) Indianapolis (4-3) W (15)

29. (31) Jacksonville (1-6) L (31)

30. (29) Buffalo (3-4) BYE (28)

31. (28) Tennessee (3-5) L (27)

32. (32) Kansas City (1-6) L (32)

Tampa Bay has been playing Jekyll and Hyde so far this season. They had a close loss at the New York Giants in week 2, but then lost consecutive games to Dallas and Washington, then blew out the Kansas City Chiefs and appeared to be hitting their stride before falling at home to the New Orleans Saints, who have not lived up to expectations this year. This week, they looked good again in winning big at Minnesota, but I still feel a bit nervous picking them to win at Oakland this weekend. Which team will show up?

Miami now has three straight wins, the most recent one avenging an earlier loss to the Jets, and have entered the top 10 while sitting just a half game behind New England for the division lead. Among the Dolphins' three losses are two overtime games and their season-opening loss to Houston, which is a pretty good team if you're to believe the rankings above.

Carolina may be the best 1-6 team in history, but ESPN is ranking them solely on wins and losses. If you look at the quality of their losses, you'll see that 4 of them were by 6 points or fewer to teams ranked in the top 10, and another was against the New York Giants, who won last year's Super Bowl. They also lost a close game against Dallas, who is a decent team, so it's not like they're losing to teams that they should beat. Unfortunately, the schedule ahead doesn't feature any cupcakes for a while.

It wasn't too long ago that the Minnesota Vikings were looking pretty good, but the quality of their previous wins keeps decreasing each week. Among their 5 victories, only the win over San Francisco now has any strength assigned to it, while Detroit and Arizona continue to fade. Maybe the Vikings can still make the playoffs, but with two games each against Chicago and Green Bay and a game in Houston, there aren't many easy wins remaining.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Kansas City at San Diego - Chargers by 17

Sunday

Arizona at Green Bay - Packers by 12
Denver at Cincinnati - Broncos by 11
Baltimore at Cleveland - Ravens by 2
Chicago at Tennessee - Bears by 16
Miami at Indianapolis - Dolphins by 8
Carolina at Washington - Redskins by 2
Detroit at Jacksonville - Lions by 5
Buffalo at Houston - Texans by 27
Tampa Bay at Oakland - Buccaneers by 7
Minnesota at Seattle - Seahawks by 10
Pittsburgh at NY Giants - Giants by 10
Dallas at Atlanta - Falcons by 11

Monday

Philadelphia at New Orleans - Saints by 5

Prediction Results

NFL: 9-5 (.643) 69-49 overall (.585)
Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 9-11 overall (.450)
NBA: 5-4 (.556) 6-6 overall (.500)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 0-2 overall (.000)

NBA Prediction

Oklahoma City at San Antonio - Spurs by 1