Most teams in the nation have finished their regular season, with a few conference championship games this week along with a few late finales in conferences without title games. Notre Dame wrapped up a perfect regular season with their season-ending victory at USC, and they have virtually guaranteed themselves a spot in the national title game, where their opponent with almost definitely be the SEC champion. Since only two teams are selected to play for the championship, there is still no way to prove that the winner of that game is really the best team in the nation, but at least it looks like the two teams playing in the final game this year with be worthy of being there. Here are my current top 25 teams, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and BCS rankings in parentheses.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (BCS)
1. (1) Alabama (11-1) W (2)
2. (3) Oregon (11-1) W (5)
3. (2) Texas A&M (10-2) W (9)
4. (4) Kansas State (10-1) BYE (6)
5. (7) Georgia (11-1) W (3)
6. (8) Oklahoma State (7-4) L (23)
7. (6) Oklahoma (9-2) W (11)
8. (14) Florida (11-1) W (4)
9. (12) Stanford (10-2) W (8)
10. (9) Notre Dame (12-0) W (1)
11. (10) LSU (10-2) W (7)
12. (18) South Carolina (10-2) W (10)
13. (5) Florida State (10-2) L (13)
14. (17) Baylor (6-5) W (NR)
15. (11) Oregon State (8-3) L (15)
16. (13) Texas (8-3) L (18)
17. (16) USC (7-5) L (NR)
18. (21) Fresno State (9-3) W (NR)
19. (23) Arizona State (7-5) W (NR)
20. (NR) TCU (7-4) W (NR)
21. (15) Clemson (10-2) L (14)
22. (24) Michigan (8-4) L (19)
23. (NR) Vanderbilt (8-4) W (NR)
24. (19) UCLA (9-3) L (16)
25. (NR) BYU (7-5) W (NR)
Dropped Out
(25) Nebraska (10-2) W (12)
(20) Utah State (10-2) W (24)
(22) Wisconsin (7-5) L (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
SEC - 7
Pac 12 - 6
Big 12 - 6
Ind - 2
ACC - 2
MWC - 1
Big 10 - 1
Florida was the biggest mover this week among the top teams, jumping 6 spots after beating up on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee. The Gators have many impressive wins on their resume, including wins against Texas A&M, South Carolina, LSU, and Florida State, while losing only once, against the Georgia Bulldogs at a neutral site. That loss is the only thing that kept Florida out of the SEC title game, which could have landed them in the championship game against Notre Dame, but instead they'll have to settle for the BCS at-large berth that is almost definite after one of the two teams ahead of them loses this weekend.
Stanford also joined my top 10 this week after taking down their third straight ranked opponent in a must-win game. The win guaranteed them a rematch with UCLA in the conference championship game and a chance at another big victory. One of their losses came at Notre Dame in overtime back in October, which is certainly excusable, but the thing holding them back from being in the championship discussion is their embarrassing loss two weeks before that at Washington, which is the worst loss by anyone in the top 10.
Florida State played a ranked team for only the second time all season, and the result was not good. They fell apart late against their instate rivals from the SEC, dropping them far out of the top 10 and forcing them to win the ACC title game to get into a BCS bowl. They beat Clemson in their only other game against a ranked team, but they lost at unranked NC State two weeks later to blow their chance at the national title. The weakness of the ACC overall this year and the fact that they played two FCS teams in nonconference play killed their strength of schedule and may have weakened the actual team as well.
Fresno State still isn't getting the respect it deserves, despite leading the Mountain West all year long. Two of their losses came against Oregon and Boise State, who are both ranked among the top 20 teams, and none of the 9 teams they defeated this year came within 12 points of them. All 3 of their losses came on the road to teams tied for their conference lead, so they really should be noticed a little bit more by the national voters.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Louisville at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 11
Friday
(21) Northern Illinois vs. (17) Kent State - Huskies by 9
(16) UCLA at (8) Stanford - Cardinal by 14
Saturday
UCF at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 3
(23) Oklahoma State at Baylor - Cowboys by 1
(11) Oklahoma at TCU - Sooners by 4
Nicholls State at (15) Oregon State - Beavers by 51
Kansas at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 19
Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 11
Louisiana-Lafayette at Florida Atlantic - Ragin Cajuns by 4
Cincinnati at Connecticut - Bearcats by 5
(20) Boise State at Nevada - Broncos by 7
(2) Alabama at (3) Georgia - Crimson Tide by 5
New Mexico State at Texas State - Bobcats by 20
Pittsburgh at South Florida - Panthers by 7
(13) Florida State vs. Georgia Tech - Seminoles by 16
(18) Texas at (6) Kansas State - Wildcats by 14
(12) Nebraska vs. Wisconsin - Cornhuskers by 1
South Alabama at Hawaii - Jaguars by 1
NBA
San Antonio at Toronto - Spurs by 8
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 11
Portland at Brooklyn - Nets by 9
Phoenix at Philadelphia - 76ers by 2
Boston at Orlando - Magic by 3
New Orleans at Denver - Nuggets by 12
College Basketball
Ball State at (1) Indiana - Hoosiers by 46
Colgate at (6) Syracuse - Orange by 26
Cal Poly at (11) UCLA - Bruins by 11
Louisiana-Lafayette at (15) Michigan State - Spartans by 20
Davidson vs. (17) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 22
Portland State at (20) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 38
Stony Brook at (21) Connecticut - Huskies by 9
Air Force at (23) Colorado - Buffaloes by 9
(25) San Diego State at USC - Aztecs by 2
Gardner-Webb at Illinois - Fighting Illini by 24
Marist vs. Clemson - Tigers by 20
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma - Mountaineers by 6
Prediction Results
College Football: 44-13 (.772) 584-200 overall (.745)
Upsets: 6-5 (.545) 67-81 overall (.453)
NBA: 3-5 (.375) 123-66 overall (.651)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 26-16 overall (.619)
College Basketball: 8-5 (.615) 150-35 overall (.811)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 12-15 overall (.444)
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