When the national voters release their preseason polls, they are basically just a rehashing of last season's final polls, with the same group of teams from the power conferences taking up most of the spots and many teams getting high rankings based on reputation alone. My preseason rankings are different. You will see many teams from small conferences, but you will not see the defending champion Kentucky Wildcats, who have virtually no returning players from last year's title team. These rankings are based on last season's performance combined with a calculation of how much of last season's production is returning for another season. Each team is listed below with last season's final record and result, along with this season's preseason AP rank.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (NR) Ohio (29-8) Sweet 16 (38)
2. (NR) Saint Joseph's (20-14) NIT 32 (33)
3. (NR) Davidson (25-8) Round of 64 (44)
4. (15) Indiana (27-9) Sweet 16 (1)
5. (NR) Notre Dame (22-12) Round of 64 (22)
6. (24) Kansas State (22-11) Round of 32 (37)
7. (10) Wisconsin (26-10) Sweet 16 (23)
8. (NR) Creighton (29-6) Round of 32 (16)
9. (20) Saint Louis (26-8) Round of 32 (28)
10. (NR) Massachusetts (25-12) NIT Final Four (NR)
11. (NR) South Dakota State (27-8) Round of 64 (NR)
12. (NR) VCU (29-7) Round of 32 (27)
13. (NR) Minnesota (23-15) NIT Final (30)
14. (NR) Northern Iowa (20-14) NIT 16 (44)
15. (17) Duke (27-7) Round of 64 (8)
16. (2) Ohio State (31-8) Final Four (4)
17. (NR) Miami (20-13) NIT 16 (41)
18. (9) Memphis (26-9) Round of 64 (17)
19. (NR) Drexel (29-7) NIT 8 (44)
20. (NR) USC Upstate (21-13) CIT 16 (NR)
21. (23) Gonzaga (26-7) Round of 32 (21)
22. (NR) Mercer (27-11) CIT Champs (NR)
23. (NR) Bucknell (25-10) NIT 16 (NR)
24. (NR) Savannah State (21-12) NIT 32 (NR)
25. (12) Louisville (30-10) Final Four (2)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Atl 10 - 4
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 2
MVC - 2
ACC - 2
Atl Sun - 2
MAC - 1
South - 1
Big 12 - 1
Summit - 1
CUSA - 1
CAA - 1
WCC - 1
Pat - 1
MEAC - 1
The Ohio Bobcats were one of the darlings of last season's NCAA tournament after they upset Michigan and South Florida to make a Cinderella run to the Sweet 16, which ended in an overtime loss to North Carolina. The Bobcats are bringing back their entire 9-man rotation from last season, and should have no trouble repeating as MAC champions and returning to March Madness, and this year they may go even deeper into the tourney.
The Indiana Hoosiers are the preseason #1 according to the national polls, and I agree that they may be the team to beat this season after their return to prominence last season. Preseason All-American Cody Zeller returned after a great freshman season in which he scored 15.6 points per game while shooting 62% from the field, and most of his supporting cast is returning as well, giving them a leg up on the competition right from the beginning.
Only one team in my top 25 finished last season with a win, and that team is the Mercer Bears, who won the CIT Tournament last year. The CIT is a step down from the NIT and plays all of its games on the home court of the higher seed, but that didn't stop the Bears from pulling off three straight road upsets to take home the trophy, winning 70-67 over Utah State in the finale. The Bears had a very balanced team, with 6 players averaging between 8.0 and 11.5 points, and 5 of those are back for another run. This year they should qualify to play with the big boys in the postseason.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers had the worst record last season of any team to make my top 25, but 12 of those 15 losses came in conference play in the Big 10, which was absolutely brutal last year. They still qualified for the NIT and advanced all the way to the championship game, where Stanford stopped their run, and with a lot of big names leaving the conference for the NBA, look for Minnesota to be near the top of the conference standings.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Friday
Bryant at (1) Indiana - Hoosiers by 32
(3) Kentucky at Maryland - Terrapins by 4
Marquette at (4) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 11
Slippery Rock at (5) Michigan - Wolverines
Miami-Ohio at (6) North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 24
Southeast Missouri State at (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 19
Georgia State at (8) Duke - Blue Devils by 35
(9) Syracuse vs. (20) San Diego State - Aztecs by 5
Georgetown at (10) Florida - Gators by 12
Gardner-Webb at (11) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 13
Indiana State at (13) UCLA - Bruins by 18
(14) Michigan State vs. Connecticut - Spartans by 8
North Texas at (16) Creighton - Bluejays by 16
Lehigh at (19) Baylor - Mountain Hawks by 2
Southern Utah at (21) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 31
South Alabama at (25) Florida State - Jaguars by 1
North Dakota at Kansas State - Wildcats by 22
Emory at Davidson - Wildcats
South Dakota State at Alabama - Jackrabbits by 2
Florida-Gulf Coast at VCU - Rams by 14
American at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 32
Stetson at Miami - Hurricanes by 17
Drexel at Kent State - Dragons by 24
USC Upstate at Saint Louis - Billikens by 9
Bucknell at Purdue - Bison by 10
Trinity Baptist at Savannah State - Tigers
Saturday
SIU-Edwardsville at (15) Missouri - Tigers by 13
Evansville at (22) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 22
Portland at Ohio - Bobcats by 34
Wartburg at Northern Iowa - Panthers
Sewanee at Mercer - Bears
NBA Predictions
Philadelphia at New York - Knicks by 14
Minnesota at Toronto - Raptors by 1
Atlanta at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 19
Detroit at LA Lakers - Lakers by 7
Phoenix at Orlando - Magic by 12
Prediction Results
NBA: 6-4 (.600) 19-16 overall (.543)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 1-4 overall (.200)
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