NFL Rankings - 18 Oct

It was probably the craziest week in NFL history, with 11 of 14 underdogs winning, which threw the rankings into disarray and made picking winners very difficult. Among the losers was former #1 Houston, who finally took their first loss of the season against the Packers, leaving only Atlanta with a spotless record, although they have not been very impressive in several of their wins. Here is how everything shook out after the wild weekend, with teams grouped by similar levels of performance and ESPN Power Rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (1) Chicago (4-1) BYE (6)
2. (12) NY Giants (4-2) W (3)

3. (4) New England (3-3) L (7)
4. (8) Green Bay (3-3) W (8)
5. (2) San Francisco (4-2) L (5)

6. (7) Seattle (4-2) W (9)

7. (11) Denver (3-3) W (12)
8. (14) Dallas (2-3) L (18)
9. (19) Tampa Bay (2-3) W (22)

10. (13) Baltimore (5-1) W (4)
11. (5) Houston (5-1) L (2)
12. (3) Atlanta (6-0) W (1)
13. (6) Saint Louis (3-3) L (20)

14. (15) Washington (3-3) W (15)

15. (10) Arizona (4-2) L (11)
16. (18) Miami (3-3) W (17)

17. (27) NY Jets (3-3) W (23)
18. (9) Minnesota (4-2) L (10)
19. (17) Detroit (2-3) W (19)
20. (22) Carolina (1-4) BYE (28)

21. (24) Cincinnati (3-3) L (21)
22. (21) Philadelphia (3-3) L (13)
23. (26) Cleveland (1-5) W (30)

24. (20) San Diego (3-3) L (16)
25. (23) New Orleans (1-4) BYE (24)
26. (25) Pittsburgh (2-3) L (14)

27. (30) Buffalo (3-3) W (25)

28. (32) Oakland (1-4) L (29)

29. (16) Indianapolis (2-3) L (26)

30. (31) Tennessee (2-4) W (27)
31. (28) Kansas City (1-5) L (32)

32. (29) Jacksonville (1-4) BYE (31)

The Chicago Bears were lucky to have a bye this week and avoid the carnage endured by other favorites. They remain at #1, thanks to an average score of 33-9 over their last three games, and they are welcoming Detroit to town this week, so another blowout should be in the works.

It took a while, but the New York Giants finally looked like the defending Super Bowl champs on Sunday, controlling every aspect of the game as they punished San Francisco 26-3. San Francisco had outscored its two prior opponents by a total score of 79-3, so the win was doubly impressive as they scored at will against the Niners' defense and held their high-scoring offense to just one field goal.

In their article declaring the Atlanta Falcons as the #1 team in the Power Rankings, ESPN basically said that Atlanta does not look like a #1 team, but that they got it by virtue of their perfect record. They get no such coddling here. Atlanta's last two home victories came by less than a field goal against teams with 2 combined wins, and since home field advantage is currently worth 2.3 points, that means that the Falcons are playing at the same level as both the Raiders and the Panthers, which explains how the only undefeated team is not even in my top 10.

It seems like a long time ago now that the Arizona Cardinals were undefeated, and that may become an even more distant memory with the brutal stretch that is ahead for them. Their next four opponents are Minnesota, San Francisco, Green Bay, and Atlanta, and three of the four will be on the road, so there is a very real chance that they could be 4-6 after staring the season with 4 straight wins.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Seattle at San Francisco - 49ers by 5

Sunday

Tennessee at Buffalo - Bills by 11
Cleveland at Indianapolis - Browns by 5
Green Bay at Saint Louis - Packers by 2
Arizona at Minnesota - Vikings by 2
Washington at NY Giants - Giants by 17
New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 15
Dallas at Carolina - Cowboys by 5
Baltimore at Houston - Texans by 3
Jacksonville at Oakland - Raiders by 11
NY Jets at New England - Patriots by 14
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Bengals by 6

Monday

Detroit at Chicago - Bears by 22

Prediction Results

NFL: 5-9 (.357) 51-40 overall (.560)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 9-8 overall (.529)