Monday, October 15, 2012

College Football Rankings - 15 Oct

There are now just 12 teams whose records remain untarnished, but who makes up this Undirty Dozen? Only one of the 12 is from a non-AQ conference (Ohio). Another (Ohio State) is not eligible for a bowl game due to NCAA sanctions. Both the Big East and the SEC have three teams without a loss, including another team from Ohio (Cincinnati) and the defending champions from Alabama. Then there is Notre Dame, off to its best start in over a decade, the two teams from Oregon representing the West, and my preseason #1 pick, the Kansas State Wildcats. Five of the seven have not performed well enough or played good enough competition to reach my top 25 yet, but I'm still not picking against any of them that are playing this week. Here are my current top 25 teams, with current BCS ranking in parentheses and teams grouped by similar level of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (BCS)
1. (15) Oklahoma (4-1) W (9)
2. (1) Alabama (6-0) W (1)

3. (10) Kansas State (6-0) W (4)

4. (4) Oregon (6-0) BYE (3)
5. (3) Texas A&M (5-1) W (18)

6. (NR) Texas Tech (5-1) W (17)
7. (12) Michigan (4-2) W (NR)
8. (2) South Carolina (6-1) L (7)

9. (17) Florida State (6-1) W (14)
10. (5) Notre Dame (6-0) W (5)

11. (8) Florida (6-0) W (2)

12. (13) Arizona State (5-1) W (NR)
13. (11) LSU (6-1) W (6)

14. (NR) Iowa State (4-2) L (24)

15. (22) USC (5-1) W (10)
16. (NR) Oregon State (5-0) W (8)

17. (NR) Utah State (5-2) W (NR)

18. (7) Texas (4-2) L (25)
19. (14) Georgia (5-1) BYE (11)
20. (25) Stanford (4-2) L (20)
21. (NR) TCU (5-1) W (23)
22. (NR) Louisiana Tech (5-1) L (NR)
23. (20) Cincinnati (5-0) W (21)
24. (NR) Wisconsin (5-2) W (NR)
25. (19) Fresno State (4-3) L (NR)

Dropped from Rankings

(16) Louisiana-Monroe (4-2) W (NR)
(18) Ohio State (7-0) W (NR)
(21) Oklahoma State (3-2) W (NR)
(24) Mississippi State (6-0) W (12)
(9) West Virginia (5-1) L (13)
(23) Michigan State (4-3) L (NR)
(6) Baylor (3-2) L (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 12 - 6
SEC - 6
Pac 12 - 5
Big 10 - 2
WAC - 2
ACC - 1
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
MWC - 1

Oklahoma vaulted over 14 teams into the top spot this week thanks to two big wins this weekend. One was their blowout victory over their biggest rival, the Texas Longhorns, and the other was Texas Tech's complete domination of West Virginia earlier in the day. Texas Tech's victory was helpful because of Oklahoma's 21-point road victory over the Red Raiders the previous week, and it helped make up for the Sooners' earlier loss to undefeated Kansas State.

Speaking of Texas Tech, what they did was more impressive than just winning big. They had a 49-7 lead over the Mountaineers with 3 minutes to go, no small feat considering West Virginia was averaging 52 points per game coming into the game and hadn't even been slowed down by anybody else. They are currently in the middle of a 6-game stretch in which every team is ranked in the BCS top 25, and if they can take all of the remaining three games, they should be in the national championship picture.

Utah State is the top-ranked non-AQ team this week, even though they have already lost twice this season. One of the losses was by 2 points at Wisconsin, which is nothing to scoff at, and the other was by 3 points at BYU, which is a pretty good team with a tough defense. 4 of their 5 wins have been by double digits, and the other was over in-state rival Utah, which plays in an AQ conference.

Also representing the WAC in the top 25 is Louisiana Tech, who despite losing this week moved into the top 25 for the first time this season. They were down 39-13 against Texas A&M, who is ranked in my top 5, with just seconds until halftime, then mounted a furious rally that resulted in a chance to tie the game with just 38 seconds left before the two-point conversion attempt and subsequent onside kick were both stopped by the Aggies. Even with the loss, the Bulldogs proved that they belong with the big boys.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Louisiana-Lafayette at North Texas - Mean Green by 4

Thursday

Houston at SMU - Cougars by 12
(3) Oregon at Arizona State - Ducks by 2

Friday

Connecticut at Syracuse - Orange by 11

Saturday

Bowling Green at Massachusetts - Falcons by 22
Purdue at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 18
(24) Iowa State at Oklahoma State - Cyclones by 4
(15) Rutgers at Temple - Scarlet Knights by 4
Virginia Tech at (19) Clemson - Tigers by 9
(6) LSU at (18) Texas A&M - Aggies by 10
Minnesota at Wisconsin - Badgers by 25
Northern Illinois at Akron - Huskies by 22
Auburn at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 7
Wake Forest at Virginia - Cavaliers by 1
Army at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 4
Florida International at Troy - Trojans by 12
San Jose State at Texas-San Antonio - Spartans by 10
(20) Stanford at California - Golden Bears by 1
Boston College at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 15
New Mexico State at Utah State - Aggies by 51
Florida Atlantic at South Alabama - Owls by 5
(7) South Carolina at (2) Florida - Gators by 3
Nebraska at Northwestern - Wildcats by 3
UNLV at (22) Boise State - Broncos by 22
BYU at (5) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 20
South Florida at (16) Louisville - Cardinals by 15
North Carolina State at Maryland - Wolfpack by 6
Michigan State at Michigan - Wolverines by 26
Rice at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 20
Pittsburgh at Buffalo - Panthers by 13
Ball State at Central Michigan - Cardinals by 6
Western Michigan at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 12
Indiana at Navy - Midshipmen by 3
(17) Texas Tech at (23) TCU - Red Raiders by 5
Louisiana-Monroe at Western Kentucky - Warhawks by 1
Colorado at (10) USC - Trojans by 41
East Carolina at UAB - Pirates by 5
(11) Georgia at Kentucky - Bulldogs by 18
North Carolina at Duke - Tar Heels by 7
Kansas at (9) Oklahoma - Sooners by 49
(4) Kansas State at (13) West Virginia - Wildcats by 19
Middle Tennessee at (12) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 11
New Mexico at Air Force - Falcons by 16
Idaho at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 48
Marshall at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 5
(1) Alabama at Tennessee - Crimson Tide by 29
(21) Cincinnati at Toledo - Bearcats by 8
UCF at Memphis - Knights by 16
Baylor at (25) Texas - Longhorns by 19
Penn State at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 6
(14) Florida State at Miami - Seminoles by 16
Tulane at UTEP - Miners by 23
Washington at Arizona - Wildcats by 11
Utah at (8) Oregon State - Beavers by 17
Wyoming at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 24
San Diego State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 7

Prediction Results

College Football: 40-15 (.727) 324-115 overall (.738)
Upsets: 4-8 (.333) 23-49 overall (.319)

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