The first month of the season is gone, and we still have 25 undefeated teams, or roughly 20% of FBS teams, including 6 teams from the SEC and 5 from the Big 12. Being undefeated does not, however, guarantee a team a spot in the top 25, even if there are exactly the right number of teams to fill those slots. Even being undefeated in a power conference is not necessarily enough, because several of those teams have remained undefeated by playing weak competition. Here are my updated rankings, with current AP rankings in parentheses.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (2) Alabama (5-0) W (1)
2. (7) Texas (4-0) W (11)
3. (5) Florida State (5-0) W (3)
4. (12) Texas A&M (3-1) W (28)
5. (13) Texas Tech (4-0) W (30)
6. (9) Florida (4-0) BYE (10)
7. (3) Cincinnati (3-0) W (26)
8. (6) Kansas State (4-0) BYE (7)
9. (10) South Carolina (5-0) W (6)
10. (8) LSU (5-0) W (4)
11. (1) Oregon (5-0) W (2)
12. (4) Georgia (5-0) W (5)
13. (11) Clemson (4-1) W (15)
14. (21) Notre Dame (4-0) BYE (9)
15. (NR) Baylor (3-1) L (33)
16. (NR) West Virginia (4-0) W (8)
17. (17) Oklahoma State (2-2) L (NR)
18. (NR) North Carolina (3-2) W (NR)
19. (18) Purdue (3-1) W (NR)
20. (14) Oklahoma (2-1) BYE (17)
21. (23) Middle Tennessee (3-1) W (NR)
22. (16) Virginia Tech (3-2) L (NR)
23. (20) Mississippi State (4-0) BYE (20)
24. (22) Oregon State (3-0) W (14)
25. (NR) Fresno State (3-2) W (NR)
Dropping Out
(19) Arizona State (4-1) W (35)
(25) Nebraska (4-1) W (21)
(15) Stanford (3-1) L (18)
(24) San Jose State (4-1) W (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
SEC - 7
Big 12 - 7
ACC - 4
Pac 12 - 2
Big East - 1
Ind - 1
Big 10 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
MWC - 1
Through one quarter, Texas A&M looked like just another average team, falling behind 10-7 against severely struggling Arkansas. Then they turned on the burners and outscored the Razorbacks 51-0 over the final 3 quarters, solidifying themselves as one of the stronger members of the strongest conference overall. They have two potential trap games coming up against Ole Miss and Louisiana Tech before they welcome the LSU Tigers to town on October 20th in what should be a fun game.
West Virginia jumped into the rankings this week after their shootout victory over Baylor on Saturday, when quarterback Geno Smith threw for 656 yards and 8 touchdowns for the Mountaineers. Despite the obvious defensive shortcomings of a team that is giving up an average of 39 points per game against FBS opponents, when your offense is putting up 57 points per game, you can't be counted out of the national championship discussion.
Even before their road upset over Georgia Tech this weekend, I had the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in my top 25, but now they have a big win over a strong AQ school to show as proof that they belong. This week they play against Louisiana-Monroe, which has been one of the non-AQ darlings of the early season after their upset of Arkansas and their near-upsets of Auburn and Baylor afterward.
Fresno State is in the top 25 mostly on the strength of their strong showing against Oregon last month, which resulted in a 17-point loss but was the closest any opponent has come to beating the Ducks this season. In two weeks they travel to Boise to face the Broncos, and there may be an upset in the works if Boise State doesn't pull their offense together by then.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Arkansas State at Florida International - Red Wolves by 2
East Carolina at UCF - Knights by 9
(13) USC at Utah - Trojans by 4
Friday
Pittsburgh at Syracuse - Panthers by 22
Utah State at BYU - Cougars by 7
Saturday
Navy at Air Force - Falcons by 25
Boise State at Southern Miss - Broncos by 9
Arkansas at Auburn - Tigers by 30
Michigan State at Indiana - Spartans by 1
(20) Mississippi State at Kentucky - Bulldogs by 9
Connecticut at (22) Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 11
Buffalo at Ohio - Bobcats by 10
(24) Northwestern at Penn State - Wildcats by 3
South Florida at Temple - Bulls by 9
Boston College at Army - Eagles by 10
Kansas at (7) Kansas State - Wildcats by 49
Virginia Tech at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 7
Kent State at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 2
Bowling Green at Akron - Falcons by 12
Massachusetts at Western Michigan - Broncos by 13
Southeast Louisiana at UAB - Blazers by 36
Arizona at (18) Stanford - Cardinal by 8
Virginia at Duke - Blue Devils by 18
Northern Illinois at Ball State - Cardinals by 12
Central Michigan at Toledo - Rockets by 30
(4) LSU at (10) Florida - Gators by 9
Wake Forest at Maryland - Terrapins by 16
Georgia Tech at (15) Clemson - Tigers by 23
Illinois at Wisconsin - Badgers by 39
Tulsa at Marshall - Golden Hurricane by 1
Louisiana-Monroe at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 7
Iowa State at (15) TCU - Cyclones by 4
(17) Oklahoma at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 18
Michigan at Purdue - Boilermakers by 10
New Mexico State at Idaho - Vandals by 4
Tulane at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 44
Texas State at New Mexico - Lobos by 20
Washington State at (14) Oregon State - Beavers by 29
Fresno State at Colorado State - Bulldogs by 23
Vanderbilt at Missouri - Tigers by 14
Texas A&M at Mississippi - Aggies by 14
Rice at Memphis - Tigers by 12
North Texas at Houston - Mean Green by 10
(8) West Virginia at (11) Texas - Longhorns by 18
Miami-Ohio at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 52
UNLV at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 20
(5) Georgia at (6) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 8
Wyoming at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 11
Miami vs. (9) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 13
Hawaii at San Diego State - Aztecs by 46
(3) Florida State at North Carolina State - Seminoles by 20
(21) Nebraska at (12) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 5
SMU at UTEP - Miners by 13
(25) UCLA at California - Bruins by 9
(23) Washington at (2) Oregon - Ducks by 27
Prediction Results
College Football: 42-12 (.778) 246-83 overall (.748)
Upsets: 4-5 (.444) 14-34 overall (.292)
The upset picks are still a work in progress this season, but this week 3 of the upsets I missed were decided on the final play of the game, which means that I could have easily seen my upset picks go 7-2. So even if my 11 upset picks don't all pull it off this weekend, you should be able to use them to find some entertaining games.
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