NBA Predictions - 31 Oct

Upset picks are in italics.

Indiana at Toronto - Pacers by 1
Denver at Philadelphia - 76ers by 4
Houston at Detroit - Pistons by 7
Sacramento at Chicago - Bulls by 12
San Antonio at New Orleans - Spurs by 12
Dallas at Utah - Mavericks by 4
Golden State at Phoenix - Suns by 9
Memphis at LA Clippers - Clippers by 6
LA Lakers at Portland - Lakers by 2

Prediction Results

NBA: 1-2 (.333)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000)

College Football Rankings - 30 Oct

It was a scary weekend for several undefeated teams, as the number unblemished teams was cut nearly in half in one afternoon, with Rutgers, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Florida, and Ohio all losing, which leaves only 5 undefeated teams that are still eligible to win the BCS title, since Ohio State is under NCAA sanctions for this season. Alabama has started to pull away from the rest of the crowd, but there are still several teams vying for the other spot in the title game, and since none of the undefeated teams are scheduled to meet this season, we could end up with quite an argument when the regular season ends. Here are my current top 25 teams, with BCS rankings in parentheses. Teams are grouped by similar levels of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (BCS)
1. (1) Alabama (8-0) W (1)

2. (4) Oregon (8-0) W (4)

3. (3) Kansas State (8-0) W (2)

4. (6) Texas A&M (6-2) W (16)

5. (13) Notre Dame (8-0) W (3)

6. (5) Florida (7-1) L (7)

7. (2) Oklahoma (5-2) L (12)

8. (7) LSU (7-1) W (5)
9. (9) Florida State (8-1) W (9)

10. (23) Georgia (7-1) W (6)
11. (15) USC (6-2) L (17)
12. (NR) BYU (5-4) W (NR)

13. (8) Texas Tech (6-2) L (18)

14. (10) South Carolina (7-2) W (8)
15. (11) Stanford (6-2) W (14)
16. (12) Oklahoma State (5-2) W (24)
17. (20) Oregon State (6-1) L (11)

18. (22) Clemson (7-1) W (13)
19. (18) Fresno State (6-3) W (NR)
20. (NR) Utah State (7-2) W (NR)
21. (17) Arizona (5-3) W (22)

22. (16) Mississippi State (7-1) L (15)
23. (NR) Boise State (7-1) W (19)

24. (NR) Arizona State (5-3) L (NR)
25. (NR) Michigan (5-3) L (NR)

Dropped Out

(25) Iowa State (5-3) W (NR)
(14) Texas (6-2) W (23)
(24) Mississippi (5-3) W (NR)
(21) Louisiana-Monroe (6-2) W (NR)
(19) TCU (5-3) L (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

SEC - 7
Pac 12 - 6
Big 12 - 4
Ind - 2
ACC - 2
MWC - 2
WAC - 1
Big 10 - 1

Notre Dame moved into my top 5 this week after their 4th victory over a ranked opponent, and this one was the most impressive yet, beating Oklahoma, who had been ranked #2 in my rankings, 30-13. The entire margin of victory came in the final 9 minutes, after the Sooners had scored a touchdown to tie the game. That touchdown was impressive, though, because it was the first rushing touchdown scored against the Irish all season.

Georgia took over the SEC East lead this weekend by defeating Florida in Jacksonville, giving them a clear path to the SEC title game, which would be very helpful to their cause, since they have only two ranked teams on their schedule, and one of those (South Carolina) blew them out a couple of weeks ago. For now, they have found their way back into my top 10, but their weak strength of schedule means that they need to win big over the final few games to move up much higher.

BYU has the worst record of any team in my rankings, but among their 4 losses were the closest game Notre Dame has played this season, a 1-point loss at Boise State which they should have won, and a tough loss to Oregon State. They also own a pretty impressive victory over Utah State, which has been running over its WAC competition so far, and they just picked up a huge road victory over Georgia Tech.

Boise State has entered my top 25 for the first time all season after winning their 7th straight game, 6 of those while holding their opponent to 14 points or less. Two of those wins came against teams ranked in my top 25, BYU and Fresno State, and their lone loss was a close game at Michigan State, which is still a good team although they currently sit a few spots outside the rankings. They don't have any more chances to impress the voters or the computers, though, with 2 of the worst teams in the country still upcoming.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Eastern Michigan at Ohio - Bobcats by 12
Virginia Tech at Miami - Hurricanes by 3
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 9

Friday

Washington at California - Golden Bears by 4

Saturday

Missouri at (7) Florida - Gators by 26
(16) Texas A&M at (15) Mississippi State - Aggies by 11
(12) Oklahoma at Iowa State - Sooners by 8
Vanderbilt at Kentucky - Wildcats by 1
Temple at (10) Louisville - Cardinals by 22
Michigan at Minnesota - Wolverines by 10
Houston at East Carolina - Cougars by 2
Air Force at Army - Falcons by 12
Miami-Ohio at Buffalo - Bulls by 12
Syracuse at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 13
Troy at Tennessee - Volunteers by 23
Tulsa at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 8
New Mexico State at Auburn - Tigers by 26
Georgia Tech at Maryland - Yellowjackets by 1
Virginia at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 25
Western Michigan at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 2
(14) Stanford at Colorado - Cardinal by 29
Memphis at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 11
Akron at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 33
Washington State at Utah - Utes by 12
TCU at (21) West Virginia - Horned Frogs by 3
Texas State at Utah State - Aggies by 33
Mississippi at (6) Georgia - Bulldogs by 15
Florida International at South Alabama - Jaguars by 8
Iowa at Indiana - Hoosiers by 7
Pittsburgh at (3) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 28
(20) Nebraska at Michigan State - Spartans by 5
Boston College at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 4
Illinois at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 33
Kansas at Baylor - Bears by 14
Florida Atlantic at Navy - Midshipmen by 15
Massachusetts at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 48
Penn State at Purdue - Nittany Lions by 4
(23) Texas at (18) Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 11
Rice at Tulane - Owls by 8
Texas-San Antonio at (25) Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 28
Louisiana-Lafayette at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 23
New Mexico at UNLV - Rebels by 5
Colorado State at Wyoming - Cowboys by 7
San Jose State at Idaho - Spartans by 28
Arkansas State at North Texas - Red Wolves by 1
(4) Oregon at (17) USC - Ducks by 10
Connecticut at South Florida - Bulls by 16
(13) Clemson at Duke - Tigers by 14
Hawaii at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 46
SMU at UCF - Knights by 14
UAB at Southern Miss - Blazers by 1
(1) Alabama at (5) LSU - Crimson Tide by 10
(24) Oklahoma State at (2) Kansas State - Wildcats by 22
(22) Arizona at UCLA - Bruins by 3
Arizona State at (11) Oregon State - Beavers by 8
San Diego State at (19) Boise State - Broncos by 15

Prediction Results

College Football: 40-18 (.690) 408-145 overall (.738)
Upsets: 8-7 (.533) 39-61 overall (.390)

NBA Predictions

Tuesday

Washington at Cleveland - Wizards by 4
Boston at Miami - Heat by 8
Dallas at LA Lakers - Lakers by 2

2012-13 NBA Preview

It's hard to believe, but the NBA season is starting next week, so it's time to take a look at what we can expect to see from each team as they get back to working a full 82-game season. I've analyzed each move made during the offseason and looked at how each team performed last season including the playoffs and used it to determine my preseason rankings. I've also analyzed each team's schedule for this season and predicted their final regular season record and playoff results. Here are my preseason rankings, with teams grouped by similar projected performance levels, and final 2012 ranking, record, and 2012-13 projected regular season record in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) 2012 Result (Projection)
1. (2) Miami (46-20) Won Finals (70-12)

2. (1) San Antonio (50-16) Lost R3 (64-18)

3. (3) Oklahoma City (47-19) Lost Finals (58-24)

4. (6) Boston (39-27) Lost R3 (54-28)
5. (4) Chicago (50-16) Lost R1 (54-28)
6. (12) New York (36-30) Lost R1 (53-29)
7. (10) LA Clippers (40-26) Lost R2 (54-28)
8. (14) Dallas (36-30) Lost R1 (53-29)

9. (8) Indiana (42-24) Lost R2 (52-30)
10. (13) LA Lakers (41-25) Lost R2 (51-31)
11. (9) Atlanta (40-26) Lost R1 (50-32)
12. (5) Philadelphia (35-31) Lost R2 (49-33)

13. (16) Utah (36-30) Lost R1 (48-34)

14. (7) Denver (38-28) Lost R1 (46-36)
15. (11) Memphis (41-25) Lost R1 (45-37)
16. (15) Phoenix (33-33) #10 West (44-38)
17. (18) Milwaukee (31-35) #9 East (43-39)
18. (22) Toronto (23-43) #11 East (42-40)
19. (19) Orlando (37-29) Lost R1 (42-40)

20. (25) Washington (20-46) #14 East (32-50)

21. (24) Minnesota (26-40) #12 West (30-52)
22. (26) Detroit (25-41) #10 East (29-53)
23. (28) Brooklyn (22-44) #12 East (28-54)
24. (27) Sacramento (22-44) #14 West (27-55)
25. (23) Golden State (23-43) #13 West (27-55)

26. (20) Portland (28-38) #11 West (23-59)

27. (21) New Orleans (21-45) #15 West (21-61)

28. (17) Houston (34-32) #9 West (19-63)

29. (29) Cleveland (21-45) #13 East (12-70)

30. (30) Charlotte (7-59) #15 East (7-75)

Playoffs

Conference Finals

Heat over Celtics
Spurs over Thunder

Finals

Heat over Spurs

What happens when you take the NBA champions and add the greatest 3-point shooter in history? You have the makings of an historically great team. The Miami Heat kept every player from last season's rotation, then added Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis to spread out the defense and give Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade more room to work inside. They also have one of the 10 greatest players of all time on the roster as well, in case you've forgotten about LeBron. If this team stays healthy, they could challenge Chicago's 72-win record.

New York lost a couple of fan favorites in Landry Fields and Jeremy Lin to free agency, but they did a very good job replacing them. Ronnie Brewer is a much better defender than Fields, and Raymond Felton and Jason Kidd add great experience at the point guard position, while Kurt Thomas and Marcus Camby will give them defensive toughness in the middle behind Tyson Chandler. If Amare and Carmelo can co-exist, the Knicks could be a very scary team.

The Lakers have been a popular topic this offseason because of the additions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash, and many are even picking the Lakers to compete for the Western Conference crown. I don't see things being quite that rosy for Los Angeles. The Lakers had to give up Andrew Bynum to get Dwight Howard, who was basically his statistical equal last year and is a year older. Bynum may have caused some problems off the court, but Howard has not been a model teammate either. And don't forget, Kobe and Nash are both entering their 17th NBA season, so the championship window is nearly closed.

After finishing just 2 games out of the playoffs last season, the Rockets decided to blow it up and start over, getting rid of nearly every player from last season's roster, including two strong point guards in Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic, and the biggest name they brought in was Jeremy Lin, who is probably a step down from either of last year's floor generals. Without a single proven NBA player on the roster other than Kevin Martin, where are the Rockets going to get their points this year?

NFL Rankings - 24 Oct

In a week with fewer upsets, there was still plenty of action in the NFL rankings, although only two teams (Green Bay and Houston) won by double digits. Several teams saw their seasons start to turn around, some in one direction and some in the other. Here are the updated rankings, with teams grouped by similar levels of performance and ESPN Power Rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (11) Houston (6-1) W (3)
2. (1) Chicago (5-1) W (5)
3. (5) San Francisco (5-2) W (4)
4. (4) Green Bay (4-3) W (7)

5. (2) NY Giants (5-2) W (2)
6. (7) Denver (3-3) BYE (12)
7. (3) New England (4-3) W (8)
8. (6) Seattle (4-3) L (11)

9. (18) Minnesota (5-2) W (9)
10. (12) Atlanta (6-0) BYE (1)
11. (19) Detroit (2-4) L (19)
12. (13) Saint Louis (3-4) L (21)
13. (14) Washington (3-4) L (18)

14. (15) Arizona (4-3) L (14)
15. (16) Miami (3-3) BYE (16)
16. (8) Dallas (3-3) W (15)
17. (17) NY Jets (3-4) L (24)
18. (26) Pittsburgh (3-3) W (10)

19. (10) Baltimore (5-2) L (6)
20. (25) New Orleans (2-4) W (20)
21. (9) Tampa Bay (2-4) L (26)
22. (22) Philadelphia (3-3) BYE (13)
23. (24) San Diego (3-3) BYE (17)

24. (21) Cincinnati (3-4) L (22)
25. (20) Carolina (1-5) L (29)
26. (29) Indianapolis (3-3) W (23)
27. (23) Cleveland (1-6) L (30)

28. (30) Tennessee (3-4) W (25)
29. (27) Buffalo (3-4) L (27)
30. (28) Oakland (2-4) W (28)
31. (32) Jacksonville (1-5) L (31)

32. (31) Kansas City (1-5) BYE (32)

Houston and Baltimore had a showdown this weekend to determine which team is the best in the AFC, and the Texans gave the entire league the resounding answer that the best team plays in Houston. Sure, Ray Lewis is out with an injury, but the Ravens are still known for their defense, and all the Texans did was set a franchise record for points against them. That loss to Green Bay a week ago was just the kick in the pants that Matt Schaub & co. needed.

The Minnesota Vikings had only beaten one team with a winning record all season, and that was a month ago, but when Arizona came to visit the Vikes didn't back down, holding a double digit lead for most of the game before allowing a late touchdown which made the game seem closer than it was.

Detroit has the highest ranking of any team with a losing record, but if you look at your schedule it's easy to see why. Their 4 losses came by an average margin of 6 points to teams with an average winning percentage of .667, and three of them were on the road. A lot of people have written the Lions off, and they still have one of the toughest remaining schedules of any team, but if they can pull out just a few wins over their tough opponents, they could still make it to the playoffs.

Tampa Bay started to look good last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, winning 38-10 and moving up the rankings quickly, but they dropped just as fast this week after a loss to the struggling Saints. Tampa's two wins both came against teams with just one win on the season, and both have looked worse with each passing week.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Tampa Bay at Minnesota - Vikings by 10

Sunday

Carolina at Chicago - Bears by 22
San Diego at Cleveland - Chargers by 1
Seattle at Detroit - Seahawks by 1
Jacksonville at Green Bay - Packers by 26
Indianapolis at Tennessee - Titans by 1
New England at Saint Louis - Patriots by 1
Miami at NY Jets - Jets by 3
Atlanta at Philadelphia - Falcons by 3
Washington at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 1
Oakland at Kansas City - Raiders by 4
NY Giants at Dallas - Giants by 3
New Orleans at Denver - Broncos by 13

Monday

San Francisco at Arizona - 49ers by 7

Prediction Results

NFL: 9-4 (.692) 60-44 overall (.577)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 9-9 overall (.500)

College Football Rankings - 22 Oct

There was plenty of action on Saturday, and at one point there were three overtime games going on at the same time, but there were just as many blowouts between ranked teams. West Virginia was blown out for the second consecutive week, pretty much ending their chances at a BCS title, and South Carolina, also a recent top-3 team, lost big to Florida, giving them loss #2 as well. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by level of performance and BCS rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (BCS)
1. (2) Alabama (7-0) W (1)

2. (1) Oklahoma (5-1) W (8)

3. (3) Kansas State (7-0) W (3)

4. (4) Oregon (7-0) W (4)

5. (11) Florida (7-0) W (2)

6. (5) Texas A&M (5-2) L (20)

7. (13) LSU (7-1) W (6)

8. (6) Texas Tech (6-1) W (14)

9. (9) Florida State (7-1) W (12)

10. (8) South Carolina (6-2) L (13)

11. (20) Stanford (5-2) W (17)
12. (NR) Oklahoma State (4-2) W (NR)
13. (10) Notre Dame (7-0) W (5)
14. (18) Texas (5-2) W (23)

15. (15) USC (6-1) W (9)
16. (NR) Mississippi State (7-0) W (11)
17. (NR) Arizona (4-3) W (NR)
18. (25) Fresno State (5-3) W (NR)
19. (21) TCU (5-2) L (NR)
20. (16) Oregon State (6-0) W (7)
21. (NR) Louisiana-Monroe (5-2) W (NR)
22. (NR) Clemson (6-1) W (18)
23. (19) Georgia (6-1) W (10)
24. (NR) Mississippi (4-3) W (NR)
25. (14) Iowa State (4-3) L (NR)

Dropped from Rankings

(12) Arizona State (5-2) L (NR)
(7) Michigan (5-2) W (22)
(17) Utah State (6-2) W (NR)
(22) Louisiana Tech (6-1) W (NR)
(24) Wisconsin (6-2) W (25)
(23) Cincinnati (5-1) L (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

SEC - 8
Big 12 - 7
Pac 12 - 5
ACC - 2
Ind - 1
MWC - 1
Sun Belt - 1

Florida has been #2 in the BCS rankings each week so far, but it took them a little longer to get near that range in my rankings, but close wins over Texas A&M and LSU combined with a blowout of South Carolina gives the Gators 3 wins over teams in my top 10, and they still must face Florida State later this season, which could be followed by a game against Alabama for the SEC title. Beating half of the top 10 would definitely qualify them for the title game, and even with one loss they could still be considered.

You may not know it, but Mississippi State is not only an undefeated SEC team, but they also got their biggest and best win of the season against Middle Tennessee on Saturday, beating up on the Blue Raiders 45-3. It may not look like much, and perhaps that's why they aren't even in the top 10 of the BCS standings despite their conference and record, but the next three weeks will tell us all we need to know about the Bulldogs, as they play Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU in consecutive weeks.

The ascension of Arizona into the top 25 was not just a desperate ploy to keep a team from my home state in the rankings, the Wildcats are actually pretty good. If you ignore the shutout in Eugene, where everyone gets pasted, they have been pretty strong this year, losing close games against Stanford and Oregon State and winning big against Oklahoma State. They have USC coming to town this weekend, and the Trojans might finally be the team that becomes Arizona's second upset victim of the season.

TCU has spent the last three weeks getting to know how tough the Big 12 is, and it will only get tougher from here. They lost to Iowa State to open October, then won big at Baylor the following week, before losing a triple overtime game against Texas Tech on Saturday. They still must run the gauntlet of Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Texas, and Oklahoma to finish the season, and even though I feel that they are a good team, I'm not sure that they will even become bowl eligible with that to look forward to.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Arkansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 14

Thursday

(18) Clemson at Wake Forest - Tigers by 16

Friday

Cincinnati at (16) Louisville - Bearcats by 1
Nevada at Air Force - Wolf Pack by 3

Saturday

Iowa at Northwestern - Wildcats by 13
Kentucky at Missouri - Tigers by 11
Temple at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 16
Ball State at Army - Cardinals by 6
Indiana at Illinois - Hoosiers by 9
(23) Texas at Kansas - Longhorns by 14
Tennessee at (13) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 19
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan - Huskies by 13
Mississippi at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 1
North Carolina State at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 13
Maryland at Boston College - Terrapins by 1
Southern Miss at Rice - Owls by 20
Utah State at Texas-San Antonio - Aggies by 20
BYU at Georgia Tech - Cougars by 6
Colorado at (4) Oregon - Ducks by 58
Memphis at SMU - Mustangs by 25
UCLA at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 10
(9) USC at Arizona - Wildcats by 4
Duke at (12) Florida State - Seminoles by 27
(2) Florida vs. (10) Georgia - Gators by 16
Purdue at Minnesota - Boilermakers by 5
Navy at East Carolina - Pirates by 7
Kent State at (15) Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 21
Fresno State at New Mexico - Bulldogs by 16
Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green - Falcons by 15
(24) Ohio at Miami-Ohio - Bobcats by 9
TCU at Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 9
Michigan State at (25) Wisconsin - Badgers by 12
Toledo at Buffalo - Rockets by 16
Akron at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 11
(14) Texas Tech at (3) Kansas State - Wildcats by 18
North Texas at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 3
UAB at Tulane - Green Wave by 2
(21) Boise State at Wyoming - Broncos by 8
Texas State at San Jose State - Spartans by 29
UTEP at Houston - Cougars by 10
Troy at Florida Atlantic - Owls by 4
Ohio State at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 4
Western Kentucky at Florida International - Hilltoppers by 14
Washington State at (17) Stanford - Cardinal by 30
(20) Texas A&M at Auburn - Aggies by 19
Hawaii at Colorado State - Rams by 21
Syracuse at South Florida - Bulls by 4
Baylor at Iowa State - Cyclones by 5
Massachusetts at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 43
South Alabama at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 34
UNLV at San Diego State - Aztecs by 23
(23) Michigan at Nebraska - Wolverines by 1
Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State - Bulldogs by 30
(5) Notre Dame at (8) Oklahoma - Sooners by 25
UCF at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 3
(11) Mississippi State at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 28
California at Utah - Utes by 5
(7) Oregon State at Washington - Beavers by 9

Prediction Results

College Football: 44-12 (.786) 368-127 overall (.743)
Upsets: 8-5 (.615) 31-54 overall (.365)

NFL Rankings - 18 Oct

It was probably the craziest week in NFL history, with 11 of 14 underdogs winning, which threw the rankings into disarray and made picking winners very difficult. Among the losers was former #1 Houston, who finally took their first loss of the season against the Packers, leaving only Atlanta with a spotless record, although they have not been very impressive in several of their wins. Here is how everything shook out after the wild weekend, with teams grouped by similar levels of performance and ESPN Power Rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (1) Chicago (4-1) BYE (6)
2. (12) NY Giants (4-2) W (3)

3. (4) New England (3-3) L (7)
4. (8) Green Bay (3-3) W (8)
5. (2) San Francisco (4-2) L (5)

6. (7) Seattle (4-2) W (9)

7. (11) Denver (3-3) W (12)
8. (14) Dallas (2-3) L (18)
9. (19) Tampa Bay (2-3) W (22)

10. (13) Baltimore (5-1) W (4)
11. (5) Houston (5-1) L (2)
12. (3) Atlanta (6-0) W (1)
13. (6) Saint Louis (3-3) L (20)

14. (15) Washington (3-3) W (15)

15. (10) Arizona (4-2) L (11)
16. (18) Miami (3-3) W (17)

17. (27) NY Jets (3-3) W (23)
18. (9) Minnesota (4-2) L (10)
19. (17) Detroit (2-3) W (19)
20. (22) Carolina (1-4) BYE (28)

21. (24) Cincinnati (3-3) L (21)
22. (21) Philadelphia (3-3) L (13)
23. (26) Cleveland (1-5) W (30)

24. (20) San Diego (3-3) L (16)
25. (23) New Orleans (1-4) BYE (24)
26. (25) Pittsburgh (2-3) L (14)

27. (30) Buffalo (3-3) W (25)

28. (32) Oakland (1-4) L (29)

29. (16) Indianapolis (2-3) L (26)

30. (31) Tennessee (2-4) W (27)
31. (28) Kansas City (1-5) L (32)

32. (29) Jacksonville (1-4) BYE (31)

The Chicago Bears were lucky to have a bye this week and avoid the carnage endured by other favorites. They remain at #1, thanks to an average score of 33-9 over their last three games, and they are welcoming Detroit to town this week, so another blowout should be in the works.

It took a while, but the New York Giants finally looked like the defending Super Bowl champs on Sunday, controlling every aspect of the game as they punished San Francisco 26-3. San Francisco had outscored its two prior opponents by a total score of 79-3, so the win was doubly impressive as they scored at will against the Niners' defense and held their high-scoring offense to just one field goal.

In their article declaring the Atlanta Falcons as the #1 team in the Power Rankings, ESPN basically said that Atlanta does not look like a #1 team, but that they got it by virtue of their perfect record. They get no such coddling here. Atlanta's last two home victories came by less than a field goal against teams with 2 combined wins, and since home field advantage is currently worth 2.3 points, that means that the Falcons are playing at the same level as both the Raiders and the Panthers, which explains how the only undefeated team is not even in my top 10.

It seems like a long time ago now that the Arizona Cardinals were undefeated, and that may become an even more distant memory with the brutal stretch that is ahead for them. Their next four opponents are Minnesota, San Francisco, Green Bay, and Atlanta, and three of the four will be on the road, so there is a very real chance that they could be 4-6 after staring the season with 4 straight wins.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Seattle at San Francisco - 49ers by 5

Sunday

Tennessee at Buffalo - Bills by 11
Cleveland at Indianapolis - Browns by 5
Green Bay at Saint Louis - Packers by 2
Arizona at Minnesota - Vikings by 2
Washington at NY Giants - Giants by 17
New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 15
Dallas at Carolina - Cowboys by 5
Baltimore at Houston - Texans by 3
Jacksonville at Oakland - Raiders by 11
NY Jets at New England - Patriots by 14
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Bengals by 6

Monday

Detroit at Chicago - Bears by 22

Prediction Results

NFL: 5-9 (.357) 51-40 overall (.560)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 9-8 overall (.529)

College Football Rankings - 15 Oct

There are now just 12 teams whose records remain untarnished, but who makes up this Undirty Dozen? Only one of the 12 is from a non-AQ conference (Ohio). Another (Ohio State) is not eligible for a bowl game due to NCAA sanctions. Both the Big East and the SEC have three teams without a loss, including another team from Ohio (Cincinnati) and the defending champions from Alabama. Then there is Notre Dame, off to its best start in over a decade, the two teams from Oregon representing the West, and my preseason #1 pick, the Kansas State Wildcats. Five of the seven have not performed well enough or played good enough competition to reach my top 25 yet, but I'm still not picking against any of them that are playing this week. Here are my current top 25 teams, with current BCS ranking in parentheses and teams grouped by similar level of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (BCS)
1. (15) Oklahoma (4-1) W (9)
2. (1) Alabama (6-0) W (1)

3. (10) Kansas State (6-0) W (4)

4. (4) Oregon (6-0) BYE (3)
5. (3) Texas A&M (5-1) W (18)

6. (NR) Texas Tech (5-1) W (17)
7. (12) Michigan (4-2) W (NR)
8. (2) South Carolina (6-1) L (7)

9. (17) Florida State (6-1) W (14)
10. (5) Notre Dame (6-0) W (5)

11. (8) Florida (6-0) W (2)

12. (13) Arizona State (5-1) W (NR)
13. (11) LSU (6-1) W (6)

14. (NR) Iowa State (4-2) L (24)

15. (22) USC (5-1) W (10)
16. (NR) Oregon State (5-0) W (8)

17. (NR) Utah State (5-2) W (NR)

18. (7) Texas (4-2) L (25)
19. (14) Georgia (5-1) BYE (11)
20. (25) Stanford (4-2) L (20)
21. (NR) TCU (5-1) W (23)
22. (NR) Louisiana Tech (5-1) L (NR)
23. (20) Cincinnati (5-0) W (21)
24. (NR) Wisconsin (5-2) W (NR)
25. (19) Fresno State (4-3) L (NR)

Dropped from Rankings

(16) Louisiana-Monroe (4-2) W (NR)
(18) Ohio State (7-0) W (NR)
(21) Oklahoma State (3-2) W (NR)
(24) Mississippi State (6-0) W (12)
(9) West Virginia (5-1) L (13)
(23) Michigan State (4-3) L (NR)
(6) Baylor (3-2) L (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 12 - 6
SEC - 6
Pac 12 - 5
Big 10 - 2
WAC - 2
ACC - 1
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
MWC - 1

Oklahoma vaulted over 14 teams into the top spot this week thanks to two big wins this weekend. One was their blowout victory over their biggest rival, the Texas Longhorns, and the other was Texas Tech's complete domination of West Virginia earlier in the day. Texas Tech's victory was helpful because of Oklahoma's 21-point road victory over the Red Raiders the previous week, and it helped make up for the Sooners' earlier loss to undefeated Kansas State.

Speaking of Texas Tech, what they did was more impressive than just winning big. They had a 49-7 lead over the Mountaineers with 3 minutes to go, no small feat considering West Virginia was averaging 52 points per game coming into the game and hadn't even been slowed down by anybody else. They are currently in the middle of a 6-game stretch in which every team is ranked in the BCS top 25, and if they can take all of the remaining three games, they should be in the national championship picture.

Utah State is the top-ranked non-AQ team this week, even though they have already lost twice this season. One of the losses was by 2 points at Wisconsin, which is nothing to scoff at, and the other was by 3 points at BYU, which is a pretty good team with a tough defense. 4 of their 5 wins have been by double digits, and the other was over in-state rival Utah, which plays in an AQ conference.

Also representing the WAC in the top 25 is Louisiana Tech, who despite losing this week moved into the top 25 for the first time this season. They were down 39-13 against Texas A&M, who is ranked in my top 5, with just seconds until halftime, then mounted a furious rally that resulted in a chance to tie the game with just 38 seconds left before the two-point conversion attempt and subsequent onside kick were both stopped by the Aggies. Even with the loss, the Bulldogs proved that they belong with the big boys.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Louisiana-Lafayette at North Texas - Mean Green by 4

Thursday

Houston at SMU - Cougars by 12
(3) Oregon at Arizona State - Ducks by 2

Friday

Connecticut at Syracuse - Orange by 11

Saturday

Bowling Green at Massachusetts - Falcons by 22
Purdue at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 18
(24) Iowa State at Oklahoma State - Cyclones by 4
(15) Rutgers at Temple - Scarlet Knights by 4
Virginia Tech at (19) Clemson - Tigers by 9
(6) LSU at (18) Texas A&M - Aggies by 10
Minnesota at Wisconsin - Badgers by 25
Northern Illinois at Akron - Huskies by 22
Auburn at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 7
Wake Forest at Virginia - Cavaliers by 1
Army at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 4
Florida International at Troy - Trojans by 12
San Jose State at Texas-San Antonio - Spartans by 10
(20) Stanford at California - Golden Bears by 1
Boston College at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 15
New Mexico State at Utah State - Aggies by 51
Florida Atlantic at South Alabama - Owls by 5
(7) South Carolina at (2) Florida - Gators by 3
Nebraska at Northwestern - Wildcats by 3
UNLV at (22) Boise State - Broncos by 22
BYU at (5) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 20
South Florida at (16) Louisville - Cardinals by 15
North Carolina State at Maryland - Wolfpack by 6
Michigan State at Michigan - Wolverines by 26
Rice at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 20
Pittsburgh at Buffalo - Panthers by 13
Ball State at Central Michigan - Cardinals by 6
Western Michigan at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 12
Indiana at Navy - Midshipmen by 3
(17) Texas Tech at (23) TCU - Red Raiders by 5
Louisiana-Monroe at Western Kentucky - Warhawks by 1
Colorado at (10) USC - Trojans by 41
East Carolina at UAB - Pirates by 5
(11) Georgia at Kentucky - Bulldogs by 18
North Carolina at Duke - Tar Heels by 7
Kansas at (9) Oklahoma - Sooners by 49
(4) Kansas State at (13) West Virginia - Wildcats by 19
Middle Tennessee at (12) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 11
New Mexico at Air Force - Falcons by 16
Idaho at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 48
Marshall at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 5
(1) Alabama at Tennessee - Crimson Tide by 29
(21) Cincinnati at Toledo - Bearcats by 8
UCF at Memphis - Knights by 16
Baylor at (25) Texas - Longhorns by 19
Penn State at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 6
(14) Florida State at Miami - Seminoles by 16
Tulane at UTEP - Miners by 23
Washington at Arizona - Wildcats by 11
Utah at (8) Oregon State - Beavers by 17
Wyoming at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 24
San Diego State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 7

Prediction Results

College Football: 40-15 (.727) 324-115 overall (.738)
Upsets: 4-8 (.333) 23-49 overall (.319)

NFL Rankings - 10 Oct

Arizona fell to Saint Louis, reducing the number of undefeated teams to two, and neither was especially impressive in attaining win #5, but several other teams showed some real talent in whipping their opponents, which caused a shakeup at the top and a new #1 for the first time in a month. Here are the updated rankings, with ESPN Power Rankings in parentheses and teams grouped by similar performance level.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (5) Chicago (4-1) W (6)

2. (3) San Francisco (4-1) W (3)

3. (8) Atlanta (5-0) W (2)

4. (2) New England (3-2) W (5)

5. (1) Houston (5-0) W (1)
6. (14) Saint Louis (3-2) W (18)

7. (12) Seattle (3-2) W (16)
8. (13) Green Bay (2-3) L (12)
9. (9) Minnesota (4-1) W (8)

10. (6) Arizona (4-1) L (9)
11. (7) Denver (2-3) L (17)
12. (11) NY Giants (3-2) W (7)

13. (4) Baltimore (4-1) W (4)

14. (23) Dallas (2-2) BYE (13)
15. (16) Washington (2-3) L (21)
16. (25) Indianapolis (2-2) W (22)
17. (19) Detroit (1-3) BYE (20)

18. (17) Miami (2-3) W (19)
19. (21) Tampa Bay (1-3) BYE (23)
20. (18) San Diego (3-2) L (14)

21. (15) Philadelphia (3-2) L (11)
22. (24) Carolina (1-4) L (26)
23. (27) New Orleans (1-4) W (24)
24. (10) Cincinnati (3-2) L (15)
25. (22) Pittsburgh (2-2) W (10)

26. (20) Cleveland (0-5) L (32)

27. (29) NY Jets (2-3) L (25)
28. (32) Kansas City (1-4) L (30)
29. (26) Jacksonville (1-4) L (31)

30. (28) Buffalo (2-3) L (27)

31. (30) Tennessee (1-4) L (28)

32. (31) Oakland (1-3) BYE (29)

The Chicago Bears take over the top spot with a defense that is crushing the competition while the offense is running more smoothly each week. For the second straight week, Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs each returned an interception for touchdown, and the Bears pulled away with 4 fourth quarter touchdowns. Other than their loss to Green Bay in week 2, Chicago hasn't let anybody keep up with them in winning 4 of their first 5 to take the division lead.

San Francisco won their second straight game without giving up a touchdown, and they did it in record-breaking style, racking up a franchise-record 621 yards and became the first team ever to record over 300 yards passing and 300 yards rushing in the same game. While neither of the opponents they've run over in the last two weeks is looking like playoff material, they could win some major credibility by beating the defending Super Bowl champions this Sunday.

Baltimore was ranked #4 last week and was facing off against the worst team in the league, but somehow only managed to win 9-6, which caused their fall to #13 this week. They did not look like the team that outlasted New England two weeks ago, and nothing like the team that handed Cincinnati at 31-point loss in week one. Hopefully playing the Cowboys this week will wake up a team that has the potential to play in the Super Bowl when they are at their best.

Indianapolis pulled off its second big upset of the season on Sunday, coming from behind to take down the Green Bay Packers in a matchup of last season's best and worst teams. They are also the only team to beat Minnesota so far this season, and though Andrew Luck plays like a rookie some weeks, he is showing much more than that with his poise, and the Colts have already matched last season's win total.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Pittsburgh at Tennessee - Steelers by 5

Sunday

Oakland at Atlanta - Falcons by 31
Cincinnati at Cleveland - Bengals by 1
Saint Louis at Miami - Rams by 6
Indianapolis at NY Jets - Colts by 7
Detroit at Philadelphia - Eagles by 1
Kansas City at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 12
Dallas at Baltimore - Ravens by 5
Buffalo at Arizona - Cardinals by 21
New England at Seattle - Seahawks by 2
NY Giants at San Francisco - 49ers by 17
Minnesota at Washington - Vikings by 2
Green Bay at Houston - Texans by 5

Monday

Denver at San Diego - Broncos by 6

Prediction Results

NFL: 9-5 (.643) 46-31 overall (.597)

College Football Rankings - 9 Oct

9 of the 25 previously unbeaten teams went down this weekend, including 3 teams that were ranked in the top 5 of the AP poll.  Many of the ranked teams that lost went down to other ranked opponents, but there were several unranked teams that surprised their higher-ranked foes and threw much of the rankings into disarray. In all 7 teams fell from my top 25, but most of the new blood replacing them is going to look familiar. Here are the latest rankings, with AP rankings in parentheses. Teams that are grouped together have  shown similar levels of performance so far.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (1) Alabama (5-0) BYE (1)

2. (9) South Carolina (6-0) W (3)
3. (4) Texas A&M (4-1) W (22)
4. (11) Oregon (6-0) W (2)
5. (14) Notre Dame (5-0) W (7)

6. (15) Baylor (3-1) BYE (27)
7. (2) Texas (4-1) L (15)
8. (6) Florida (5-0) W (4)
9. (16) West Virginia (5-0) W (5)

10. (8) Kansas State (5-0) W (6)

11. (10) LSU (5-1) L (9)

12. (NR) Michigan (3-2) W (25)
13. (NR) Arizona State (4-1) BYE (31)
14. (12) Georgia (5-1) L (14)
15. (20) Oklahoma (3-1) W (13)

16. (NR) Louisiana-Monroe (3-2) W (NR)
17. (3) Florida State (5-1) L (12)
18. (NR) Ohio State (6-0) W (8)

19. (25) Fresno State (4-2) W (NR)
20. (7) Cincinnati (4-0) W (21)

21. (17) Oklahoma State (2-2) BYE (NR)
22. (NR) USC (4-1) W (11)
23. (NR) Michigan State (4-2) W (30)

24. (23) Mississippi State (5-0) W (19)
25. (NR) Stanford (4-1) W (17)

Dropped from Rankings

(18) North Carolina (4-2) W (NR)
(5) Texas Tech (4-1) L (38)
(13) Clemson (5-1) W (16)
(24) Oregon State (4-0) W (10)
(21) Middle Tennessee (3-2) L (NR)
(22) Virginia Tech (3-3) L (NR)
(19) Purdue (3-2) L (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

SEC - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
Ind - 1
Sun Belt - 1
ACC - 1
MWC - 1
Big East - 1

South Carolina rose to #2 with their huge win over #5 Georgia on Saturday. It was by far the biggest challenge the Gamecocks have faced so far, and it was good preparation for the next two weeks, when they travel to play LSU and Florida. If they make it through those two games unscathed, you just may be looking at the #1 team in the country. For now, they make up one third of an all-SEC top 3.

Michigan is definitely the best 2-loss team in the country, and after they pasted Purdue on the road they re-entered my top 25 clear up at #12. The two teams who have beaten them are pretty good, both ranked in my top 5 currently (Alabama and Notre Dame), but neither of their earlier wins was even worthy of notice. The Wolverines only have one more ranked team remaining on their schedule unless Michigan State or Nebraska regroup in the next week or two.

Arizona State climbed up to #13 this week without even playing, and it's due to strong showings by their last two opponents. Utah had a better-than-expected game against USC, losing by only 10 points, and California upset UCLA in dramatic fashion on Saturday, making the two most recent wins by the Sun Devils look even better than they did at the time and making ASU the #2 team in the conference.

Florida State looked like they had a clear path until Thanksgiving and a very good chance at a berth in the national championship game, but got caught taking an opponent lightly and have basically killed their title hopes because of the same weak schedule that looked like their ally last week. The Seminoles will probably still win the ACC, especially with Virginia Tech having its worst season in a decade, but it won't be enough after that second-half collapse against NC State.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Western Kentucky at Troy - Trojans by 2
UTEP at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 26
Arizona State at Colorado - Sun Devils by 35

Friday

Navy at Central Michigan - Midshipmen by 1

Saturday

(18) Louisville at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 11
(6) Kansas State at Iowa State - Wildcats by 5
Iowa at Michigan State - Spartans by 18
Northwestern at Minnesota - Wildcats by 4
Syracuse at (20) Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 16
(15) Texas vs. (13) Oklahoma - Longhorns by 6
UAB at Houston - Cougars by 12
Kent State at Army - Golden Flashes by 8
Wisconsin at Purdue - Boilermakers by 6
Auburn at Mississippi - Rebels by 18
Duke at Virginia Tech - Hokies by 11
Temple at Connecticut - Huskies by 8
Toledo at Eastern Michigan - Rockets by 21
SMU at Tulane - Mustangs by 15
Akron at Ohio - Bobcats by 27
North Carolina at Miami - Tar Heels by 9
Utah at UCLA - Bruins by 10
Maryland at Virginia - Terrapins by 11
Western Michigan at Ball State - Cardinals by 7
Nevada at UNLV - Wolf Pack by 12
Fresno State at (24) Boise State - Bulldogs by 3
(17) Stanford at (7) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 20
Illinois at (25) Michigan - Wolverines by 38
(1) Alabama at Missouri - Crimson Tide by 25
Miami-Ohio at Bowling Green - Falcons by 17
Texas-San Antonio at Rice - Roadrunners by 5
(10) Oregon State at BYU - Cougars by 5
Buffalo at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 14
Oklahoma State at Kansas - Cowboys by 22
(5) West Virginia at Texas Tech - Mountaineers by 8
Utah State at San Jose State - Spartans by 11
Memphis at East Carolina - Pirates by 13
Boston College at (12) Florida State - Seminoles by 33
(4) Florida at Vanderbilt - Gators by 14
Middle Tennessee at Florida International - Blue Raiders by 20
Colorado State at San Diego State - Aztecs by 22
Kentucky at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 7
TCU at Baylor - Bears by 31
(11) USC at Washington - Trojans by 6
Idaho at Texas State - Bobcats by 1
South Alabama at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 14
Fordham at (21) Cincinnati - Bearcats
Air Force at Wyoming - Cowboys by 9
(8) Ohio State at Indiana - Buckeyes by 12
(3) South Carolina at (9) LSU - Gamecocks by 3
Southern Miss at UCF - Knights by 29
Florida Atlantic at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 31
Tennessee at (19) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 9
(22) Texas A&M at (23) Louisiana Tech - Aggies by 16
California at Washington State - Golden Bears by 9

Sunday

New Mexico at Hawaii - Lobos by 15

Prediction Results

College Football: 38-17 (.691) 284-100 overall (.740)
Upsets: 5-7 (.417) 19-41 overall (.317)

NFL Rankings - 3 Oct

All 3 undefeated teams held on to win this weekend, but two of them went clear down to the final play before the result was final. Houston, meanwhile, put away the Tennessee Titans early and coasted to their 4th victory and used their dominance to maintain the #1 spot for the 3rd straight week. Here are the latest rankings, with ESPN's Power Rankings in parentheses. Teams are grouped by similar levels of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (1) Houston (4-0) W (1)
2. (7) New England (2-2) W (6)
3. (15) San Francisco (3-1) W (4)

4. (10) Baltimore (3-1) W (3)
5. (14) Chicago (3-1) W (9)

6. (4) Arizona (4-0) W (5)
7. (3) Denver (2-2) W (13)

8. (2) Atlanta (4-0) W (2)
9. (16) Minnesota (3-1) W (14)
10. (26) Cincinnati (3-1) W (12)
11. (20) NY Giants (2-2) L (10)
12. (5) Seattle (2-2) L (17)

13. (11) Green Bay (2-2) W (8)
14. (28) Saint Louis (2-2) W (19)
15. (18) Philadelphia (3-1) W (7)
16. (29) Washington (2-2) W (18)
17. (9) Miami (1-3) L (26)
18. (12) San Diego (3-1) W (11)

19. (24) Detroit (1-3) L (20)
20. (27) Cleveland (0-4) L (32)

21. (23) Tampa Bay (1-3) L (22)
22. (6) Pittsburgh (1-2) BYE (16)
23. (19) Dallas (2-2) L (15)
24. (31) Carolina (1-3) L (24)

25. (22) Indianapolis (1-2) BYE (31)
26. (13) Jacksonville (1-3) L (30)
27. (32) New Orleans (0-4) L (28)
28. (17) Buffalo (2-2) L (21)

29. (8) NY Jets (2-2) L (23)
30. (30) Tennessee (1-3) L (25)

31. (21) Oakland (1-3) L (29)
32. (25) Kansas City (1-3) L (27)

San Francisco jumped back into the top of the rankings with their 34-0 beat-down of the New York Jets on Sunday, which was even more impressive since it happened on the road. They were also helped along by another upset victory by the Minnesota Vikings, who moved into the top 10 and have beaten the 49ers. The 49ers rushing attack was excellent in New York, racking up 245 yards and 3 touchdowns while splitting up the duties among several different players, none of which gained more than 62 yards.

The New England Patriots were in danger of losing their third straight game, trailing the Buffalo Bills 21-7 early in the third quarter when Tom Brady took over and led the Patriots to 6 touchdowns in 19 minutes, which turned a big deficit into a huge blowout and put New England back in familiar territory as one of the top 5 teams in the league.

The Minnesota Vikings have been showing a lot of improvement over the past couple weeks, beating the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions back to back right after losing to the Indianapolis Colts in week 2. Special teams were the story this time, as the Vikings returned both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns as they won a road game without scoring an offensive touchdown.

The New York Giants are still looking pretty strong, but they have struggled when facing other teams from the NFC East, which is one of two divisions (the other is the NFC West, surprisingly) where no team has a losing record. Even with the teams in their division winning, the Giants are somehow the only NFC East team that has outscored its opponents so far this season, so it's a little strange to see them bringing up the rear.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Arizona at Saint Louis - Cardinals by 4

Sunday

Miami at Cincinnati - Bengals by 8
Green Bay at Indianapolis - Packers by 4
Baltimore at Kansas City - Ravens by 22
Cleveland at NY Giants - Giants by 9
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh - Eagles by 1
Atlanta at Washington - Falcons by 1
Seattle at Carolina - Seahawks by 4
Chicago at Jacksonville - Bears by 13
Tennessee at Minnesota - Vikings by 19
Denver at New England - Patriots by 10
Buffalo at San Francisco - 49ers by 25
San Diego at New Orleans - Chargers by 3

Monday

Houston at NY Jets - Texans by 21

Prediction Results

NFL: 10-5 (.667) 37-26 overall (.587)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 7-8 overall (.467)

College Football Rankings - 2 Oct

The first month of the season is gone, and we still have 25 undefeated teams, or roughly 20% of FBS teams, including 6 teams from the SEC and 5 from the Big 12. Being undefeated does not, however, guarantee a team a spot in the top 25, even if there are exactly the right number of teams to fill those slots. Even being undefeated in a power conference is not necessarily enough, because several of those teams have remained undefeated by playing weak competition. Here are my updated rankings, with current AP rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (2) Alabama (5-0) W (1)
2. (7) Texas (4-0) W (11)
3. (5) Florida State (5-0) W (3)
4. (12) Texas A&M (3-1) W (28)
5. (13) Texas Tech (4-0) W (30)
6. (9) Florida (4-0) BYE (10)
7. (3) Cincinnati (3-0) W (26)
8. (6) Kansas State (4-0) BYE (7)
9. (10) South Carolina (5-0) W (6)
10. (8) LSU (5-0) W (4)
11. (1) Oregon (5-0) W (2)
12. (4) Georgia (5-0) W (5)
13. (11) Clemson (4-1) W (15)
14. (21) Notre Dame (4-0) BYE (9)
15. (NR) Baylor (3-1) L (33)
16. (NR) West Virginia (4-0) W (8)
17. (17) Oklahoma State (2-2) L (NR)
18. (NR) North Carolina (3-2) W (NR)
19. (18) Purdue (3-1) W (NR)
20. (14) Oklahoma (2-1) BYE (17)
21. (23) Middle Tennessee (3-1) W (NR)
22. (16) Virginia Tech (3-2) L (NR)
23. (20) Mississippi State (4-0) BYE (20)
24. (22) Oregon State (3-0) W (14)
25. (NR) Fresno State (3-2) W (NR)

Dropping Out

(19) Arizona State (4-1) W (35)
(25) Nebraska (4-1) W (21)
(15) Stanford (3-1) L (18)
(24) San Jose State (4-1) W (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

SEC - 7
Big 12 - 7
ACC - 4
Pac 12 - 2
Big East - 1
Ind - 1
Big 10 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
MWC - 1

Through one quarter, Texas A&M looked like just another average team, falling behind 10-7 against severely struggling Arkansas. Then they turned on the burners and outscored the Razorbacks 51-0 over the final 3 quarters, solidifying themselves as one of the stronger members of the strongest conference overall. They have two potential trap games coming up against Ole Miss and Louisiana Tech before they welcome the LSU Tigers to town on October 20th in what should be a fun game.

West Virginia jumped into the rankings this week after their shootout victory over Baylor on Saturday, when quarterback Geno Smith threw for 656 yards and 8 touchdowns for the Mountaineers. Despite the obvious defensive shortcomings of a team that is giving up an average of 39 points per game against FBS opponents, when your offense is putting up 57 points per game, you can't be counted out of the national championship discussion.

Even before their road upset over Georgia Tech this weekend, I had the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in my top 25, but now they have a big win over a strong AQ school to show as proof that they belong. This week they play against Louisiana-Monroe, which has been one of the non-AQ darlings of the early season after their upset of Arkansas and their near-upsets of Auburn and Baylor afterward.

Fresno State is in the top 25 mostly on the strength of their strong showing against Oregon last month, which resulted in a 17-point loss but was the closest any opponent has come to beating the Ducks this season. In two weeks they travel to Boise to face the Broncos, and there may be an upset in the works if Boise State doesn't pull their offense together by then.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Arkansas State at Florida International - Red Wolves by 2
East Carolina at UCF - Knights by 9
(13) USC at Utah - Trojans by 4

Friday

Pittsburgh at Syracuse - Panthers by 22
Utah State at BYU - Cougars by 7

Saturday

Navy at Air Force - Falcons by 25
Boise State at Southern Miss - Broncos by 9
Arkansas at Auburn - Tigers by 30
Michigan State at Indiana - Spartans by 1
(20) Mississippi State at Kentucky - Bulldogs by 9
Connecticut at (22) Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 11
Buffalo at Ohio - Bobcats by 10
(24) Northwestern at Penn State - Wildcats by 3
South Florida at Temple - Bulls by 9
Boston College at Army - Eagles by 10
Kansas at (7) Kansas State - Wildcats by 49
Virginia Tech at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 7
Kent State at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 2
Bowling Green at Akron - Falcons by 12
Massachusetts at Western Michigan - Broncos by 13
Southeast Louisiana at UAB - Blazers by 36
Arizona at (18) Stanford - Cardinal by 8
Virginia at Duke - Blue Devils by 18
Northern Illinois at Ball State - Cardinals by 12
Central Michigan at Toledo - Rockets by 30
(4) LSU at (10) Florida - Gators by 9
Wake Forest at Maryland - Terrapins by 16
Georgia Tech at (15) Clemson - Tigers by 23
Illinois at Wisconsin - Badgers by 39
Tulsa at Marshall - Golden Hurricane by 1
Louisiana-Monroe at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 7
Iowa State at (15) TCU - Cyclones by 4
(17) Oklahoma at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 18
Michigan at Purdue - Boilermakers by 10
New Mexico State at Idaho - Vandals by 4
Tulane at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 44
Texas State at New Mexico - Lobos by 20
Washington State at (14) Oregon State - Beavers by 29
Fresno State at Colorado State - Bulldogs by 23
Vanderbilt at Missouri - Tigers by 14
Texas A&M at Mississippi - Aggies by 14
Rice at Memphis - Tigers by 12
North Texas at Houston - Mean Green by 10
(8) West Virginia at (11) Texas - Longhorns by 18
Miami-Ohio at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 52
UNLV at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 20
(5) Georgia at (6) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 8
Wyoming at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 11
Miami vs. (9) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 13
Hawaii at San Diego State - Aztecs by 46
(3) Florida State at North Carolina State - Seminoles by 20
(21) Nebraska at (12) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 5
SMU at UTEP - Miners by 13
(25) UCLA at California - Bruins by 9
(23) Washington at (2) Oregon - Ducks by 27

Prediction Results

College Football: 42-12 (.778) 246-83 overall (.748)
Upsets: 4-5 (.444) 14-34 overall (.292)

The upset picks are still a work in progress this season, but this week 3 of the upsets I missed were decided on the final play of the game, which means that I could have easily seen my upset picks go 7-2. So even if my 11 upset picks don't all pull it off this weekend, you should be able to use them to find some entertaining games.