Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Football Predictions - 29 Sep to 3 Oct

Since there is a game tomorrow involving a ranked team, I'm posting my weekly football picks a little early. I'm including all games that feature a team ranked in the AP poll or my own personal rankings, and any game which I feel will be an upset is listed in italics.

Thursday

(16) South Florida at Pittsburgh - Bulls by 7

Saturday

Rutgers at Syracuse - Scarlet Knights by 25
(14) Texas A&M at (18) Arkansas - Aggies by 22
Minnesota at (19) Michigan - Wolverines by 39
Northwestern at (24) Illinois - Illini by 14
Kentucky at (1) LSU - Tigers by 63
Kent at Ohio - Bobcats by 33
Nevada at (4) Boise State - Broncos by 29
Auburn at (10) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 25
(21) Georgia Tech at North Carolina State - Yellowjackets by 30
Bowling Green at (22) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 6
SMU at (20) TCU - Horned Frogs by 14
(15) Baylor at Kansas State - Wildcats by 18
Washington State at Colorado - Cougars by 24
(13) Clemson at (11) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 2
Ball State at (2) Oklahoma - Sooners by 28
(17) Texas at Iowa State - Cyclones by 11
Washington at Utah - Utes by 24
Notre Dame at Purdue - Irish by 26
(3) Alabama at (12) Florida - Gators by 1
(8) Nebraska at (7) Wisconsin - Badgers by 16
UCLA at (6) Stanford - Cardinal by 48
Oregon State at (25) Arizona State - Sun Devils by 23

Sunday

Buffalo at Cincinnati - Bills by 6
Carolina at Chicago - Bears by 5
Tennessee at Cleveland - Titans by 12
Detroit at Dallas - Cowboys by 5
Minnesota at Kansas City - Vikings by 12
Washington at Saint Louis - Redskins by 25
New Orleans at Jacksonville - Saints by 12
San Francisco at Philadelphia - 49ers by 14
Pittsburgh at Houston - Texans by 16
Atlanta at Seattle - Seahawks by 1
NY Giants at Arizona - Cardinals by 8
Denver at Green Bay - Packers by 11
New England at Oakland - Raiders by 10
Miami at San Diego - Chargers by 1
NY Jets at Baltimore - Jets by 1


Monday


Indianapolis at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 15

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

NFL Rankings - 27 Sep

There are only three undefeated teams left in the NFL after week 3, and two of them are huge surprises, teams that haven't made the playoffs in more than a decade. The other is the defending Super Bowl champion, which is fitting. On the other side, two of last season's playoff qualifiers are among the five teams that have yet to win a game, which just goes to show what a difference one major injury can make.

TW - LW - Team - Record
1. (2) Oakland (2-1)
2. (1) Green Bay (3-0)
3. (4) NY Jets (2-1)
4. (6) Buffalo (3-0)
5. (3) New Orleans (2-1)
6. (7) Dallas (2-1)
7. (10) Baltimore (2-1)
8. (12) New England (2-1)
9. (5) Detroit (3-0)
10. (9) Tennessee (2-1)
11. (15) Houston (2-1)
12. (11) Denver (1-2)
13. (21) San Francisco (2-1)
14. (22) Washington (2-1)
15. (8) Cincinnati (1-2)
16. (13) Chicago (1-2)
17. (16) Carolina (1-2)
18. (17) Arizona (1-2)
19. (19) Jacksonville (1-2)
20. (14) Tampa Bay (2-1)
21. (26) Pittsburgh (2-1)
22. (28) NY Giants (2-1)
23. (27) Miami (0-3)
24. (25) Minnesota (0-3)
25. (24) Cleveland (2-1)
26. (23) Atlanta (1-2)
27. (20) San Diego (2-1)
28. (30) Seattle (1-2)
29. (18) Philadelphia (1-2)
30. (29) Indianapolis (0-3)
31. (32) Kansas City (0-3)
32. (31) Saint Louis (0-3)

The Oakland Raiders took over the top spot even though they already have a loss, but that one loss came on the road to the Buffalo Bills, the only remaining undefeated team in the AFC. That loss was by 3 points, and since home field advantage is currently worth about 3.2, that game basically counts as a draw for the Raiders. What propelled them past Green Bay was their 10 point win over the Jets, who are once again one of the best teams in the league. And in case you missed it, I correctly predicted the Raiders upset.

Buffalo surprised everybody but me with their last-second win over New England this weekend, but they have beaten two of the top teams in the league already, and their 34-point win over Kansas City to open the season was an omen of things to come for both teams. It may seem strange that they are one of the final unbeatens, but they have shown that they are a real threat this year, even in the super strong AFC East.

The Philadelphia Eagles, who were supposed to be unbeatable heading into this season, are looking like mere mortals after losing two straight games to underachieving teams. Their season-opening victory over the Rams isn't looking that great anymore either, since St. Louis is not looking at all like the team that was expected to win the weak NFC West.

The state of Missouri is the laughingstock of professional football, with its two teams starting a combined 0-6 and being outscored by an average score of 34-10 so far. Kansas City made the playoffs last season as division champs, but injuries have them preparing for the draft already, and St. Louis has had a very difficult early season schedule, although they haven't even come close to beating any of those teams which they could potentially have met in the playoffs.

Prediction Results

NFL: 13-3 (.813) 32-16 overall (.667)
Upsets: 5-0 (1.000) 13-19 overall (.406)

Sunday, September 25, 2011

College Football Rankings - 25 Sep

There were very few upsets across the college football landscape this week, with only two teams upsetting higher-ranked teams, Clemson and Arizona State, both for the second time this season. While that meant very little movement in the national rankings, there was still plenty of movement in my rankings, because I rank teams based on performance rather than just wins or losses. Because of that, you will see a number of new teams on the list this week, and a good number of the nationally ranked teams will not be appearing.

TW - LW - Team - Record - AP
1. (1) Stanford (3-0) (6)
2. (2) LSU (4-0) (1)
3. (6) Oregon (3-1) (9)
4. (7) Oklahoma State (4-0) (5)
5. (5) Wisconsin (4-0) (7)
6. (3) Oklahoma (3-0) (2)
7. (10) South Florida (4-0) (16)
8. (8) Boise State (3-0) (4)
9. (9) Alabama (4-0) (3)
10. (4) Texas A&M (2-1) (14)
11. (14) Washington State (2-1) (NR)
12. (13) Georgia Tech (4-0) (21)
13. (11) Ohio (3-1) (NR)
14. (NR) Utah (2-1) (32)
15. (NR) Notre Dame (2-2) (36)
16. (NR) Michigan (4-0) (19)
17. (12) Florida State (2-2) (23)
18. (NR) Iowa State (3-0) (29)
19. (NR) Kansas State (3-0) (31)
20. (NR) Pittsburgh (2-2) (NR)
21. (22) San Diego State (3-1) (NR)
22. (NR) Iowa (3-1) (NR)
23. (20) South Carolina (4-0) (10)
24. (NR) Rutgers (2-1) (NR)
25. (15) Clemson (4-0) (13)

Dropped Out

(23) Navy (2-1) (38)
(24) TCU (3-1) (20)
(17) Mississippi State (2-2) (40)
(18) Arkansas (3-1) (18)
(19) Bowling Green (3-1) (NR)
(25) UCF (2-2) (NR)
(21) Auburn (3-1) (28)
(16) Utah State (1-2) (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 12 - 5
Pac 12 - 4
SEC - 3
Big 10 - 3
Big East - 3
ACC - 3
MWC - 2
MAC - 1
Ind - 1

LSU passed another huge road test by beating the West Virginia Mountaineers on their home turf, which jumped them to #1 in the AP poll and #2 in the USA Today, but even with all they've done, I still can't say that they've done quite enough to put them ahead of Stanford, which has won all three of their games by at least 27 points with two of those coming on the road. That doesn't mean the Tigers won't take over the top spot in the future, but it would take a huge win over Kentucky next week, or a Stanford slip-up.

The Oregon Ducks, who lost in their season opener to LSU, have come back strong in the last three games, scoring at least 56 points and winning by at least 25 points each time. Even that early loss to LSU won't necessarily keep Oregon from a return trip to the title game, especially if they can beat Stanford again and win the inaugural Pac 12 title.

Oklahoma State had the toughest road game of any this week, and they looked stale early as they fell behind 20-3 in the first half at Texas A&M before roaring back with 27 straight points in the second half to silence the crowd at College Station and pick up a huge win that has them looking like the best team in the state, even with the Sooners still undefeated.

South Florida had another strong performance and continued to surprise people with a 4-0 start to the season, including a big win at Notre Dame to open the season. They have their toughest remaining road game this week when they visit Pittsburgh, which should say a lot about whether this team will take the Big East's BCS bid.

Utah made a big leap into the rankings without even playing, but it's a residual effect off of their huge victory at BYU a week ago. BYU looked much stronger in beating UCF this week, which in turn makes Utah look like they may have another good season in them. Because they play in the Pac 12 South, they only have one ranked opponent on their schedule, #25 ASU, so they really could end the season with only one or two losses.

Prediction Results -
College Football - 16-9 (.640) 78-23 overall (.772)
Upsets - 1-6 (.143) 8-19 overall (.296)

The upset picks are not going so well early in the season, but things are looking up with today's slate of NFL games, in which I've nailed every upset I predicted so far.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players: #27


Dwyane Wade

(Simmons: #53, BBR, #35)

Dwyane Wade is one of the greatest current players in the NBA, and he has the accolades to prove it. He is an Olympic Gold Medalist, NBA Champion, former scoring leader, and Finals MVP. In his eight seasons in the NBA, he has ranked as one of the top 5 players five times, which includes every season in which he was not a rookie and did not suffer a major injury.

Wade's career highlight came in his third season, when he led the Heat to their only NBA Championship as the team's best player, which earned him the Finals MVP award. John Hollinger rated his performance as the best in NBA Finals history, even better than anything that Michael Jordan ever did. Here are his numbers from those playoffs:

Wade - 28.4 pts, 5.9 reb, 5.7 ast, 2.2 stl, 1.1 blk, .497 FG%, .378 3P%, .808 FT%

In addition to the overall totals, Wade had some amazing performances in the Finals. In three straight games he scored at least 36 points, all leading to Heat victories, which were much needed after they began with an 0-2 deficit. There was no doubt that Wade was the reason they were able to overcome the Mavericks and win the title, even with Shaq, the most dominant player of the past decade, playing beside him.

Wade spent a good portion of the next two season on the injured list, leading many to think that he was destined to become the next Penny Hardaway rather than the next Michael Jordan, but he has bounced back strong, missing six games or less in each of the last three years and ranking in the top 5 players in the league.

Last season, Wade relinquished his role as the best player in Miami in order to bring LeBron James into the fold, and the move paid off, as Miami finally returned to the NBA Finals, losing in six games in a rematch with the Dallas Mavericks. Although he was only the #2 player on his team, he was also the #2 player in the league during the regular season, behind LeBron, although in the playoffs, Wade regained his role as the best Heat player and was the biggest reason for their run to the Finals. Here are his and LeBron's stats for the regular season and the playoffs:

Wade (Regular) - 25.5 pts, 6.4 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.1 blk, .500 FG%, .306 3P%, .758 FT%
Wade (Playoffs) - 24.5 pts, 7.1 reb, 4.4 ast, 1.6 stl, 1.3 blk, .485 FG%, .269 3P%, .777 FT%

James (Regular) - 26.7 pts, 7.5 reb, 7.0 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.6 blk, .510 FG%, .330 3P%, .759 FT%
James (Playoffs) - 23.7 pts, 8.4 reb, 5.9 ast, 1.6 stl, 1.2 blk, .466 FG%, .353 3P%, .763 FT%

Overall, Wade played at almost exactly the same level in the playoffs as during the regular season, while James saw large dips in both scoring and shooting percentage, both very important categories for a team's leading scorer. Over the next several years we'll be able to see if Wade's penchant for performing in the big moments escalates him into the ranks of the greatest players of all time with his boyhood idol, Michael Jordan.


Hayes was a lot more durable than Wade early in his career, never missing more than 2 games in any season during his career, and he was the best player on three teams that made the NBA Finals, one more than Wade can currently claim. Wade, however, rose to the occasion in the Finals, while Hayes shrunk from the spotlight. Wade has also spent more time as a top 5 player than Hayes, who was content to be top 15 for the majority of his career, so Wade's desire to be the best puts him one step ahead of Hayes.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Football Predictions - 23-26 Sep

Overall, my picks last week weren't too bad, but I'm still not up to my normal level in picking upsets. I suspect that it will improve as the season goes forward and I have more data to work with, since I've never done picks on early-season games before. Here are my picks for all of the NFL games and each of the important college football games of the weekend.

Friday

UCF at BYU - Knights by 5

Saturday

(23) USC at Arizona State - Trojans by 10
Tulsa at (4) Boise State - Broncos by 16
Colorado State at Utah State - Aggies by 46
Ohio at Rutgers - Bobcats by 12
San Diego State at (22) Michigan - Aztecs by 7
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 20
Bowling Green at Miami-Ohio - Falcons by 38
Florida Atlantic at Auburn - Tigers by 55
North Carolina at (25) Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 38
Portland State at (20) TCU - Horned Frogs
(11) Florida State at (21) Clemson - Tigers by 7
(7) Oklahoma State at (8) Texas A&M - Aggies by 6
South Dakota at (6) Wisconsin - Badgers
(13) Virginia Tech at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 11
(14) Arkansas at (3) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 23
Western Michigan at (24) Illinois - Broncos by 4
UTEP at (18) South Florida - Bulls by 22
(15) Florida at Kentucky - Gators by 1
Rice at (17) Baylor - Bears by 19
Vanderbilt at (12) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 13
(9) Nebraska at Wyoming - Cowboys by 44
Missouri at (1) Oklahoma - Sooners by 54
(2) LSU at (16) West Virginia - Tigers by 17
(10) Oregon at Arizona - Ducks by 9

Sunday

New England at Buffalo - Bills by 13
San Francisco at Cincinnati - Bengals by 20
Miami at Cleveland - Browns by 13
Denver at Tennessee - Titans by 7
Detroit at Minnesota - Lions by 15
Houston at New Orleans - Saints by 18
NY Giants at Philadelphia - Eagles by 19
Jacksonville at Carolina - Panthers by 9
NY Jets at Oakland - Raiders by 6
Arizona at Seattle - Cardinals by 17
Baltimore at Saint Louis - Ravens by 25
Kansas City at San Diego - Chargers by 28
Green Bay at Chicago - Packers by 5
Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 14
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis - Steelers by 6

Monday

Washington at Dallas - Cowboys by 21


Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players: #28


Elvin Hayes

(Kalb: #35, Simmons: #49, BBR: #30)

You don't often hear Elvin Hayes' name mentioned among the all-time greats of the game, but when you look at his all-time ranks, you realize that he was a great player, although he did have one big weakness that may be the reason he is often overlooked.

When Hayes came into the league, it was as the #1 pick in the draft and as the defending AP National Player of the year, and his rookie season was no disappointment. The more popular Wes Unseld won both the MVP and Rookie of the Year that season, but probably deserved neither. The best overall player that season was Wilt Chamberlain, and the best rookie was definitely Hayes. Here are their stats for the 1968-69 season:

Chamberlain - 20.5 pts, 21.1 reb, 4.5 ast, .583 FG%, .446 FT%
Hayes - 28.4 pts, 17.1 reb, 1.4 ast, .447 FG%, .626 FT%
Unseld - 13.8 pts, 18.2 reb, 2.6 ast, .476 FG%, .605 FT%

Chamberlain led the league in field goal percentage and rebounds, while Hayes led all players in scoring. None of the three was a good free throw shooter, but it was clear that Hayes was better than Unseld, especially considering that he averaged twice as many points per game. There's also no competition between Wilt and Unseld for the MVP, but that's for a later article.

After a few seasons with the Rockets at the beginning of his career, the team was tired of the lack of playoff success and the selfishness of Hayes, so he was traded to the Bullets for a lesser player. While playing in Washington, Hayes' teams made three trips to the NBA Finals, winning a championship in 1978. He was the best player on each of those teams, but that doesn't mean that he was the reason for their success.

Hayes was infamous for disappearing during the fourth quarter, especially in important games. In game 7 of the 1978 Finals, Hayes ended up with only 12 points, and fouled out with ten minutes to play, after which the rest of the Bullets took over and led Washington to the title. Of the 145 points he scored in the Finals that year, only 19 came during the fourth quarter, certainly not the mark of a champion.

One thing Hayes had going for him was that he was very durable. In 16 seasons he never missed more than 2 games in a season. He is #3 all-time in minutes played, with exactly 50,000, #4 in all-time rebounds, and #8 in all-time points scored. His overall career numbers cannot be ignored, despite his shortcomings.


In terms of playoff success, Hayes and Kidd were basically equals, and in terms of longevity the slight edge goes to Kidd. What sets Hayes apart was how good he was for so many years, and especially his peak years, which were far above Kidd's peak. Hayes was the best player on an NBA champion, while Kidd needed better players around him before he was able to grab a ring, which gives Hayes the edge.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

NFL Rankings - 20 Sep

Week 2 of the NFL season was full of surprises, with quite a number of teams suddenly becoming good and many others heading in the opposite direction, with only a few of the old standbys remaining on each end. There were some amazing comeback victories, like Tampa Bay over Minnesota, and some huge blowouts, like Detroit over Kansas City. All in all, it was a very entertaining weekend of football. Here are the newly updated rankings, with current ranking followed by previous ranking, team name, and overall record.

TW - LW - Team - Record
1. (7) Green Bay (2-0)
2. (17) Oakland (1-1)
3. (11) New Orleans (1-1)
4. (13) NY Jets (2-0)
5. (8) Detroit (2-0)
6. (3) Buffalo (2-0)
7. (14) Dallas (1-1)
8. (12) Cincinnati (1-1)
9. (18) Tennessee (1-1)
10. (1) Baltimore (1-1)
11. (25) Denver (1-1)
12. (2) New England (2-0)
13. (5) Chicago (1-1)
14. (22) Tampa Bay (1-1)
15. (4) Houston (2-0)
16. (31) Carolina (0-2)
17. (29) Arizona (1-1)
18. (6) Philadelphia (1-1)
19. (19) Jacksonville (1-1)
20. (10) San Diego (1-1)
21. (15) San Francisco (1-1)
22. (9) Washington (2-0)
23. (21) Atlanta (1-1)
24. (26) Cleveland (1-1)
25. (16) Minnesota (0-2)
26. (23) Pittsburgh (1-1)
27. (20) Miami (0-2)
28. (24) NY Giants (1-1)
29. (27) Indianapolis (0-2)
30. (30) Seattle (0-2)
31. (28) Saint Louis (0-2)
32. (32) Kansas City (0-2)

The defending champion Green Bay Packers took over the top spot this week after they were able to hold off a much-improved Carolina Panthers team on the road and come away victorious. They were also helped out by the great performance put up by New Orleans in taking down the Bears, because the Saints played a close game with the Packers in Week 1.

Oakland and Buffalo, two teams that have not been good in a long time, played an epic game on Sunday, with multiple late lead changes making it the game of the week, and the winner, Buffalo, ended up undefeated after two weeks, something they haven't seen since their run of four straight Super Bowl losses in the 90's.

The Detroit Lions are also 2-0, just one season removed from a 2-30 mark over two seasons, and it is not a fluke. They were a good team in a tough division last year, which kept them from winning enough games to qualify for the playoffs, but after beating Tampa and Kansas City to open the season, the most recent game by 45 points, it appears that they are for real.

The Carolina Panthers are 0-2 yet again, but there's no reason to think that they will wind up with the worst record and the #1 pick again this season, not with the way their most recent #1 pick is playing. Cam Newton has thrown for over 400 yards in the first two games of his professional career, and has had the Panthers within one possession of beating each of its first two opponents. Maybe he really was ready for the NFL.

Kansas City is floundering, and it appears that it will only get worse, with star running back Jamaal Charles likely out for the season due to a torn ACL. It looks like they will not be repeating last year's surprising run to the playoffs, unless they are able to find another star-caliber running back quickly, because their passing game isn't enough to do it all alone.