Sunday, September 25, 2011

College Football Rankings - 25 Sep

There were very few upsets across the college football landscape this week, with only two teams upsetting higher-ranked teams, Clemson and Arizona State, both for the second time this season. While that meant very little movement in the national rankings, there was still plenty of movement in my rankings, because I rank teams based on performance rather than just wins or losses. Because of that, you will see a number of new teams on the list this week, and a good number of the nationally ranked teams will not be appearing.

TW - LW - Team - Record - AP
1. (1) Stanford (3-0) (6)
2. (2) LSU (4-0) (1)
3. (6) Oregon (3-1) (9)
4. (7) Oklahoma State (4-0) (5)
5. (5) Wisconsin (4-0) (7)
6. (3) Oklahoma (3-0) (2)
7. (10) South Florida (4-0) (16)
8. (8) Boise State (3-0) (4)
9. (9) Alabama (4-0) (3)
10. (4) Texas A&M (2-1) (14)
11. (14) Washington State (2-1) (NR)
12. (13) Georgia Tech (4-0) (21)
13. (11) Ohio (3-1) (NR)
14. (NR) Utah (2-1) (32)
15. (NR) Notre Dame (2-2) (36)
16. (NR) Michigan (4-0) (19)
17. (12) Florida State (2-2) (23)
18. (NR) Iowa State (3-0) (29)
19. (NR) Kansas State (3-0) (31)
20. (NR) Pittsburgh (2-2) (NR)
21. (22) San Diego State (3-1) (NR)
22. (NR) Iowa (3-1) (NR)
23. (20) South Carolina (4-0) (10)
24. (NR) Rutgers (2-1) (NR)
25. (15) Clemson (4-0) (13)

Dropped Out

(23) Navy (2-1) (38)
(24) TCU (3-1) (20)
(17) Mississippi State (2-2) (40)
(18) Arkansas (3-1) (18)
(19) Bowling Green (3-1) (NR)
(25) UCF (2-2) (NR)
(21) Auburn (3-1) (28)
(16) Utah State (1-2) (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 12 - 5
Pac 12 - 4
SEC - 3
Big 10 - 3
Big East - 3
ACC - 3
MWC - 2
MAC - 1
Ind - 1

LSU passed another huge road test by beating the West Virginia Mountaineers on their home turf, which jumped them to #1 in the AP poll and #2 in the USA Today, but even with all they've done, I still can't say that they've done quite enough to put them ahead of Stanford, which has won all three of their games by at least 27 points with two of those coming on the road. That doesn't mean the Tigers won't take over the top spot in the future, but it would take a huge win over Kentucky next week, or a Stanford slip-up.

The Oregon Ducks, who lost in their season opener to LSU, have come back strong in the last three games, scoring at least 56 points and winning by at least 25 points each time. Even that early loss to LSU won't necessarily keep Oregon from a return trip to the title game, especially if they can beat Stanford again and win the inaugural Pac 12 title.

Oklahoma State had the toughest road game of any this week, and they looked stale early as they fell behind 20-3 in the first half at Texas A&M before roaring back with 27 straight points in the second half to silence the crowd at College Station and pick up a huge win that has them looking like the best team in the state, even with the Sooners still undefeated.

South Florida had another strong performance and continued to surprise people with a 4-0 start to the season, including a big win at Notre Dame to open the season. They have their toughest remaining road game this week when they visit Pittsburgh, which should say a lot about whether this team will take the Big East's BCS bid.

Utah made a big leap into the rankings without even playing, but it's a residual effect off of their huge victory at BYU a week ago. BYU looked much stronger in beating UCF this week, which in turn makes Utah look like they may have another good season in them. Because they play in the Pac 12 South, they only have one ranked opponent on their schedule, #25 ASU, so they really could end the season with only one or two losses.

Prediction Results -
College Football - 16-9 (.640) 78-23 overall (.772)
Upsets - 1-6 (.143) 8-19 overall (.296)

The upset picks are not going so well early in the season, but things are looking up with today's slate of NFL games, in which I've nailed every upset I predicted so far.

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