NFL Preseason Rankings - 2020

 The NFL season starts this Thursday, with the defending champs hosting Houston in the first game since February. The NFL has added another wild card spot per conference this year, and only the top seed in each conference will earn a bye for the first round. I adjusted each team's final rating from last season after factoring in all of the roster moves, then plugged in the full schedule to determine each team's projected record and playoff seeding.

				Actual		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	MOV	SOS	Seed
1	2	Kansas City	-12.26			13	3			A1
2	16	Pittsburgh	-9.23			12	4			A2
3	3	San Francisco	-8.686			11	5			N1
4	1	Baltimore	-8.034			11	5			A5
5	9	LA Rams	-5.104			10	6			N5
6	12	Buffalo	-4.391			9	7			A4
7	11	Seattle	-4.183			10	6			N6
8	4	New England	-3.593			9	7			A6
9	21	Indianapolis	-3.429			10	6			A3
10	17	Philadelphia	-2.785			9	7			N3
11	5	New Orleans	-2.363			9	7			N2
12	10	Green Bay	-1.869			9	7			N4
13	20	Denver	-1.766			9	7			A7
14	19	Chicago	-0.228			9	7			N7
15	22	Cleveland	-0.167			8	8
16	14	Tampa Bay	0.7024			9	7
17	7	Minnesota	0.7039			8	8
18	8	Dallas	1.107			8	8
19	6	Tennessee	1.4019			7	9
20	15	Houston	1.7405			7	9
21	28	NY Jets	2.2027			7	9
22	29	Cincinnati	2.9148			7	9
23	23	Arizona	3.7656			7	9
24	24	Detroit	4.532			7	9
25	31	Miami	4.6853			6	10
26	13	Atlanta	4.9996			7	9
27	18	LA Chargers	6.7254			6	10
28	26	Jacksonville	7.9766			5	11
29	25	Las Vegas	8.9923			5	11
30	27	Carolina	9.3843			5	11
31	30	NY Giants	10.531			4	12
32	32	Washington	11.238			4	12

Pittsburgh looks to return to the playoffs after falling just short last year with Ben Roethlisberger out with an elbow injury, but with him at full health, I project them to leapfrog Baltimore to take the division crown. Also projected to make the playoffs this year after missing out last year are Indianapolis and Denver, both of which were 7-9 at the end of last season.

In the NFC, Chicago and the LA Rams are projected to improve enough to get back into the playoffs, while Tampa Bay falls just short in Tom Brady's first season in Florida.

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(2) Steelers over (7) Broncos

(6) Patriots over (3) Colts

(5) Ravens over (4) Bills

(2) Saints over (7) Bears

(6) Seahawks over (3) Eagles

(5) Rams over (4) Packers

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (6) Patriots

(2) Steelers over (5) Ravens

(1) 49ers over (6) Seahawks

(5) Rams over (2) Saints

Conference

(1) Chiefs over (2) Steelers

(1) 49ers over (5) Rams

Super Bowl

(1) Chiefs over (1) 49ers

The Chiefs will repeat as champions in a rematch of last year's Super Bowl.

NBA Playoff Odds - Update 3

 The second round is in full swing, and it has not gone as expected for the favorites, causing a huge shakeup in the current odds. After picking the first 6 series winners correctly, my final 2 picks lost in the final seconds of games 7, and now 2 of my picks are trailing in round 2. Here are each remaining team's current odds of advancing through the next two rounds and of winning it all, with change since Sunday in parentheses.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

1. Clippers - 92.2% (+26.0)

2. Heat - 82.8% (+68.3)

3. Celtics - 69.6% (+23.3)

4. Lakers - 52.3% (-21.6)

5. Rockets - 47.7% (+25.9)

6. Raptors - 30.4% (-23.4)

7. Bucks - 17.2% (-68.3)

8. Nuggets - 7.8% (+3.8)

Milwaukee's odds plummeted this week after falling behind 3-0 to Miami, a deficit that has never been overcome in NBA history, but that doesn't mean it's over for the Bucks. 17% is not great, but it isn't zero, and they are still more likely than the Nuggets to advance. The Lakers are still slightly favored in their series despite being down 1-0 after last night's loss.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

1. Clippers - 61.3% (+22.6)

2. Celtics - 44.1% (+27.2)

3. Heat - 26.2% (+22.2)

4. Lakers - 23.5% (-18.3)

5. Raptors - 18.9% (-2.6)

6. Rockets - 13.1% (+5.5)

7. Bucks - 10.8% (-46.9)

8. Nuggets - 2.1% (+1.2)

The Clippers, who are the only favorites currently leading their series, are now the most likely team to reach the Finals, which would be the first time in franchise history, which would mean that Kawhi Leonard would have led two teams to their first Finals appearance and possibly first-ever championship in consecutive seasons.

Odds of Winning Championship

1. Clippers - 36.9% (+19.7)

2. Celtics - 21.9% (+13.4)

3. Lakers - 12.3% (-5.2)

4. Raptors - 9.2% (-2.4)

5. Heat - 8.3% (+7.1)

6. Bucks - 6.7% (-33.1)

7. Rockets - 4.4% (+2.7)

8. Nuggets - 0.4% (+0.3)

The Clippers are the favorites to win the title, knocking the Bucks from that position for the first time this season, and Kawhi is now leading LeBron in the race to become the first player ever to win Finals MVP for 3 separate franchises.

Football Predictions - 3 Sep thru 7 Sep

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Central Arkansas at UAB - Blazers by 16

South Alabama at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 14.5

Saturday

Eastern Kentucky at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 19.5

Middle Tennessee at Army - Black Knights by 8

SMU at Texas State - Mustangs by 16

Houston Baptist at North Texas - Mean Green by 12.5

Arkansas State at Memphis - Tigers by 21.5

Stephen F Austin at UTEP - Lumberjacks by 2.5

Monday

BYU at Navy - Midshipmen by 17