NBA Playoff Odds - 2024

The Celtics have been the best team by far this season, and they are huge favorites to win the NBA championship, but all 16 teams still technically have a chance of lifting the trophy in a couple of months. I've calculated the odds of any team facing any other team in the playoffs, and of winning any potential series in any number of games to come up with each team's odds of advancing through each round and winning the whole thing. I've also included my picks at the end:

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Celtics - 96.0%

(2) Nuggets - 80.8%

(3) Timberwolves - 72.8%

(1) Thunder - 70.7%

(2) Knicks - 66.4%

(4) Clippers - 61.0%

(4) Cavaliers - 55.3%

(6) Pacers - 50.4%

(3) Bucks - 49.6%

(5) Magic - 44.7%

(5) Mavericks - 39.0%

(7) 76ers - 33.6%

(8) Pelicans - 29.3%

(6) Suns - 27.2%

(7) Lakers - 19.2%

(8) Heat - 4.0%

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Celtics - 90.5%

(1) Thunder - 54.8%

(3) Timberwolves - 43.7%

(2) Nuggets - 41.7%

(2) Knicks - 41.4%

(6) Pacers - 22.7%

(3) Bucks - 21.2%

(4) Clippers - 19.3%

(8) Pelicans - 16.5%

(7) 76ers - 14.7%

(6) Suns - 10.7%

(5) Mavericks - 9.4%

(4) Cavaliers - 4.6%

(7) Lakers - 3.8%

(5) Magic - 3.2%

(8) Heat - 1.7%

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Celtics - 81.7%

(1) Thunder - 33.9%

(3) Timberwolves - 24.7%

(2) Nuggets - 21.1%

(2) Knicks - 7.5%

(4) Clippers - 6.7%

(8) Pelicans - 6.4%

(6) Suns - 3.7%

(6) Pacers - 3.0%

(3) Bucks - 2.61%

(5) Mavericks - 2.56%

(4) Cavaliers - 1.9%

(7) 76ers - 1.6%

(5) Magic - 1.2%

(7) Lakers - 0.8%

(8) Heat - 0.5%

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(1) Celtics - 64.4%

(1) Thunder - 12.2%

(3) Timberwolves - 8.1%

(2) Nuggets - 6.0%

(2) Knicks - 2.7%

(8) Pelicans - 1.4%

(4) Clippers - 1.3%

(6) Pacers - 0.8%

(3) Bucks - 0.69%

(6) Suns - 0.66%

(4) Cavaliers - 0.44%

(7) 76ers - 0.38%

(5) Mavericks - 0.37%

(5) Magic - 0.3%

(8) Heat - 0.09%

(7) Lakers - 0.08%

My Picks

First Round

(1) Celtics over (8) Heat in 4

(2) Knicks over (7) 76ers in 5

(6) Pacers over (3) Bucks in 5

(4) Cavaliers over (5) Magic in 6

(1) Thunder over (8) Pelicans in 5

(2) Nuggets over (7) Lakers in 4

(6) Suns over (3) Timberwolves in 6

(4) Clippers over (5) Mavericks in 6

Second Round

(1) Celtics over (4) Cavaliers in 4

(6) Pacers over (2) Knicks in 6

(1) Thunder over (4) Clippers in 4

(2) Nuggets over (6) Suns in 7

Conference Finals

(1) Celtics over (6) Pacers in 4

(1) Thunder over (2) Nuggets in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Celtics over (1) Thunder in 5