All four NFL games of Wild Card weekend went exactly as I predicted, which means that there was very little movement in my rankings and no change in my predictions for each game, but the odds of each team advancing in the playoffs has changed slightly due to four teams' odds being reduced to zero. Here are my updated rankings and odds for the remaining teams. As always, teams are grouped by similar level of performance, and eliminated teams are not included.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result
1. (1) Seattle (12-5) W
2. (2) New England (12-4) BYE
3. (3) Denver (13-3) BYE
4. (5) Green Bay (12-5) W
5. (4) San Francisco (11-4-1) BYE
6. (6) Atlanta (13-3) BYE
11. (13) Baltimore (11-6) W
15. (16) Houston (13-4) W
Odds of Making Conference Championship
1. New England - 94.1% (-1.2)
2. Denver - 86.0% (-1.5)
3. Seattle - 62.3% (+11.7)
4. San Francisco - 61.4% (+0.1)
5. Green Bay - 38.6% (+13.7)
6. Atlanta - 37.7% (-10.2)
7. Baltimore - 14.0% (+4.5)
8. Houston - 5.9% (+5.9)
The most likely conference championship matchups have not changed, with New England and Denver still very likely and Seattle vs. San Francisco in an all-West NFC title game is looking more likely than before, although neither is an overwhelming favorite to get there.
Odds of Making Super Bowl
1. Denver - 51.1% (+0.0)
2. New England - 46.3% (-0.6)
3. Seattle - 33.1% (+0.8)
4. San Francisco - 28.9% (-2.8)
5. Atlanta - 19.7% (-5.1)
6. Green Bay - 18.2% (+6.9)
7. Baltimore - 1.7% (+0.4)
8. Houston - 1.0% (+1.0)
Odds of Winning Super Bowl
1. Denver - 26.2% (+0.7)
2. New England - 25.6% (+0.1)
3. Seattle - 19.6% (-0.7)
4. San Francisco - 12.9% (-1.2)
5. Green Bay - 8.1% (+3.5)
6. Atlanta - 7.0% (-1.6)
San Francisco and Atlanta saw their odds drop because they each got their toughest possible opponent in this round, which gives them a tougher overall road to the title than they could have had if upsets had ruled the Wild Card round.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Baltimore at Denver - Broncos by 10
Green Bay at San Francisco - 49ers by 4
Seattle at Atlanta - Seahawks by 4
Houston at New England - Patriots by 14
NBA
Orlando at LA Clippers - Clippers by 16
Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 5
Charlotte at Indiana - Pacers by 12
Houston at Philadelphia - Texans by 4
Utah at Detroit - Pistons by 1
Phoenix at Chicago - Bulls by 8
Memphis at Dallas - Grizzlies by 7
Miami at Sacramento - Heat by 5
College Basketball
(1) Duke at (20) North Carolina State - Blue Devils by 7
South Florida at (3) Louisville - Cardinals by 24
(4) Arizona at Oregon State - Wildcats by 9
(8) Minnesota at (5) Indiana - Hoosiers by 10
(6) Kansas at Texas Tech - Jayhawks by 20
Villanova at (7) Syracuse - Orange by 22
(10) Missouri at Ole Miss - Rebels by 9
(11) Florida at LSU - Gators by 13
(12) Illinois at Wisconsin - Badgers by 9
(14) Butler at Dayton - Flyers by 5
Colorado State at (16) San Diego State - Aztecs by 5
Connecticut at (17) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 11
(18) Kansas State at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 3
(19) Georgetown at Saint John's - Red Storm by 6
(21) Cincinnati at Rutgers - Bearcats by 1
Air Force at (24) UNLV - Rebels by 16
Fresno State at (25) New Mexico - Lobos by 13
VCU at Saint Bonaventure - Rams by 13
Texas A&M at Kentucky - Wildcats by 20
Tennessee-Martin at Belmont - Bruins by 37
Marquette at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 16
TCU at Baylor - Bears by 28
Army at Bucknell - Bison by 22
Prediction Results
NFL: 4-0 (1.000) 165-94 overall (.637)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 24-25 overall (.490)
NBA: 8-3 (.727) 368-171 overall (.683)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 68-42 overall (.618)
College Basketball: 1-0 (1.000) 425-81 overall (.840)
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