Top 100 NBA Players: #4

Karl Malone

(Kalb: #17, Simmons: #18, BBR: #10)

How can a player who never won a championship be ranked at #4, ahead of many of the greatest champions of all time? By being consistently among the best players in the league for a longer period than any other player in history, with the possible exception of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, that's how.

Karl Malone was never the best player in the NBA for any single season, but he spent a longer period of time as the second-best player in the league than anyone else, and he led his team to the playoffs in each of his 19 seasons, making 3 appearances in the Finals and 3 more in the Conference Finals.

Malone was awarded two MVP awards during his career, but neither one was deserved. He won the first because voters were tired of picking one superstar, and he won the other because they weren't ready to recognize a new superstar yet. The first came in 1997, when he somehow beat out Michael Jordan to win the league's top individual award, but the numbers tell a different story:

Malone - 27.4 pts, 9.9 reb, 4.5 ast, 1.4 stl, .550 FG%, .755 FT%
Jordan - 29.6 pts, 5.9 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.7 stl, .486 FG%, .833 FT%

The two players each beat the other in 3 of these categories, which puts them pretty close to each other, but the Bulls won 5 more games than the Jazz that season, picking up 69 wins in all, tying the second-best record of all time, behind only their 72-10 record from the previous season, when Jordan took 109 out of 113 first-place votes for MVP.

Two years later, Malone was awarded his second MVP, but I feel that the voters weren't ready to hand the award to second-year player Tim Duncan, who had been nearly as good offensively and much better defensively than Malone, even with both teams finishing with identical records. I broke down the statistics on this one when I introduced Tim Duncan back at #9, if you want to look at it in more detail.

All of this would seem to drag Malone down a couple of spots, but there are also several very impressive aspects of Malone's career. Consider that he is one of only 2 players ever to average over 20 points per game for 17 straight seasons, along with Kareem, and he is also #2 all time in points scored, to Kareem as well. He never led the league in any major statistical category, but he was always among the league leaders in points and rebounds.

The fact that he played 19 seasons is pretty impressive in itself, and the fact that he made the playoffs in each of those seasons is more impressive still, but when you consider that he was not just playing, but playing at an All-Star level clear up to the end, that is something that sets him apart. He is the oldest player ever to record a triple-double, doing it at age 40 during his final season, and is also the oldest player ever to score 50 points, doing it at age 36 in a playoff game. He is also the oldest player ever to start for an NBA Finals team, holding the power forward position for the Los Angeles Lakers in his final season, the only time in his career he wasn't the best player on his team.

Malone's run as the league's #2 man almost as impressive. He first cracked the league's top 5 in 1988, when he was just 24 years old, and remained there until he was 36 years old in the year 2000. He was definitely the second-best player in the league for each of Michael Jordan's final three seasons with the Bulls, and seemed poised to take over as the top player when Tim Duncan strode in and dominated the 1999 season. Then, when Duncan was hurt near the end of the 2000 season, it seemed once again that an opening had been created for Malone, but Shaq stepped in to fill the void instead, and Malone lost his final chance to be the league's alpha dog.

In addition to him playing at a high level for so many years, he also rarely missed a game. Until his final season, he never missed more than 2 games in a single season, and nearly half the games he missed up to that point were due to suspensions. He was given the nickname "the Mailman" because he always delivered, and even though he may have missed a couple of deliveries in the Finals, can you really fault him for not being able to beat Michael Jordan at his peak? Malone played at a higher level for a longer period of time than any other player in the history of the NBA, and that's why he's the #4 player of all time.

Malone may not have won the championships that Kobe has, but he spent 17 seasons as one of the league's premier players, while Kobe has only played 15 total season to this point. Malone never had the mid-career lull that Kobe did, instead making it at least to the Conference Finals 5 times in 7 seasons during his prime years. While Kobe will most likely pass Malone at some point, for now Malone's longevity has given him the edge over Bryant.

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 27 May

The playoffs are halfway over, and only 4 teams remain, but there are plenty of players that have stood out at this point in the playoffs. These are the players that are most likely to win the Finals MVP award should their team win the title this year, with their playoff averages listed after their name.

Playoff Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 29.0 pts, 8.7 reb, 5.9 ast, 2.5 stl, .493 FG%, .769 FT%

The regular season MVP has played even better in the playoffs, with the highlight coming in a must-win game 4 against Indiana, when the Heat were in danger of going down 3-1 in the series. LeBron was huge that night, finishing with 40 points, 18 rebounds, and 9 assists as Miami turned the series around and got themselves back on track for a return trip to the NBA Finals.

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 26.7 pts, 8.1 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.1 blk, 1.3 stl, .488 FG%, .367 3P%, .836 FT%

Durant's scoring is a little bit down from the regular season, when he won his third straight scoring title, but he hasn't had to carry as big a load because of help from his teammates and somewhat weak competition so far. He'll have to turn it up in the next round if he wants to get past the Spurs, but if OKC advances to the title, Durant could become the new favorite to grab a Finals MVP.

3. Rajon Rondo - BOS - 15.3 pts, 6.7 reb, 12.3 ast, 2.7 stl, .455 FG%, .692 FT%

Rajon Rondo has become the leader of a team that includes 3 future Hall-of-Famers, and he showed it last night in game 7 against Philadelphia, when he scored 7 straight points to put the game out of reach and put the Celtics into the Conference Finals for the third time in five seasons. Even more impressive is the fact that he has now recorded 3 triple-doubles in this year's playoffs, and last night he became the second Celtic ever to record one in game 7, joining Larry Bird.

4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 24.1 pts, 4.7 reb, 4.4 ast, 1.9 stl, .472 FG%, .815 FT%

Westbrook has been one Thunder player that has stepped up big in the playoffs, with his 37-point performance in game 4 against the Lakers a prime example. They needed every point he scored, since they won by only 3 points, and a loss would have left the series tied and guaranteed a return trip to Los Angeles, which they were happy to avoid.

5. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 23.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 3.6 ast, 1.3 blk, 2.0 stl, .486 FG%, .663 FT%

He may have put up a clunker in game 3 against the Pacers, scoring only 5 points on 2-13 shooting in 37 minutes, but he made up for it in a big way a week later in the deciding game 6, when he poured in 41 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, leading the Miami Heat back to the Eastern Conference Finals yet again, and keeping the argument open about which of the superstar teammates is the better player.

6. Tim Duncan - SAS - 17.6 pts, 9.0 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.9 blk, 1.0 stl, .540 FG%, .792 FT%

Maybe it's the extra rest he's gotten from sweeping through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, but Tim Duncan has looked like the Tim Duncan of old rather than old Tim Duncan so far in the playoffs. Even when he had to play on consecutive nights because of scheduling issues at the Staples Center, Duncan put up 21 points to go along with 9 rebounds and 3 blocks as San Antonio closed out the Clippers and won their 18th straight game.

7. Kevin Garnett - BOS - 19.2 pts, 10.8 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.5 blk, 1.4 stl, .505 FG%, .811 FT%

Not sure what's going on with the old guys in this year's playoffs, but they look younger than ever, despite the compacted schedule that was supposed to wear them out. Garnett has recorded 9 double-doubles in 13 playoff games so far, which is the same number he recorded in the final 7 weeks of the regular season, which covered 31 games.

8. Paul Pierce - BOS - 19.3 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.0 blk, 1.5 stl, .417 FG%, .347 3P%, .913 FT%

Pierce has not been shooting particularly well from the field so far in the playoffs, but he has been automatic from the line, currently riding a streak of 30 straight free throws made that stretches clear back to game 3 against Philadelphia, and that can be a very important quality for your star player to have in close playoff games. Pierce is also hitting the boards harder in the playoffs, grabbing 1.7 more per game than he did in the regular season.

9. Tony Parker - SAS - 19.1 pts, 3.4 reb, 7.1 ast, 1.0 stl, .430 FG%, .810 FT%

Parker was definitely the Spurs' MVP during the regular season, but in the playoffs he's been kind of mediocre so far. He's getting the same numbers he did in the regular season, but he's shooting a lot more to get there. He shot only 36% in the Clippers series, including an abysmal 1-9 performance in game 1, but the Spurs have continued to win anyway.

10. James Harden - OKC - 17.0 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.0 stl, .419 FG%, .901 FT%

The Beard has been spectacular so far in the playoffs, showing everybody why he won the Sixth Man Award this season, and it never showed more than in game 4 against Dallas, when he scored 29 points as the Thunder finished off a sweep of the defending champions. 15 of those points came in the fourth quarter, as he led Oklahoma City back from a 13-point deficit to win by 6.

Playoff Predictions

In the second round I predicted all 4 series winners correctly, and I was within 1 game of getting all four of them exactly correct, making my total 10 of 12 correct so far with 9 of them within 1 game of my prediction.

Conference Finals

Spurs over Thunder in 5
Heat over Celtics in 5

NBA Finals

Spurs over Heat in 6

Top 100 NBA Players: #5

Kobe Bryant

(Kalb: #18, Simmons: #15, BBR: #68)

Among all active NBA players, Kobe Bryant is ranked the highest on this list. Part of it is due to his 2 scoring titles. Part of it could be his 5 championship rings, more than any other active player. And part of it can be traced to how well he has played for such a long period of time.

Kobe, like most of the other active players near the top of the all-time greats, started out with an advantage. Because he did not attend college, he has had more seasons in which to pile up numbers. Of the top 5 active players on this list, only Tim Duncan attended any college, and only three active players on this list are college graduates (the others are Steve Nash and Grant Hill).

A few years ago, there was a big uproar because Kobe Bryant had never won an MVP award, and people thought it was a travesty that one had never been awarded to him. But if you remember, he wasn't even the best player on his own team until 2004-05, and that was the first of three straight seasons in which the Lakers didn't even win a playoff series. The fact is, until 2008, there was no way Kobe could have won an MVP, despite the fact that he was easily the best player to never have won. That season, playing with a new attitude, he won the only MVP he ever deserved. Here is a comparison of he and LeBron James from that season:

Kobe - 28.3 pts, 6.3 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.8 stl, 0.5 blk, .459 FG%, .361 3P%, .840 FT%
LeBron - 30.0 pts, 7.9 reb, 7.2 ast, 1.8 stl, 1.1 blk, .484 FG%, .315 3P%, .712 FT%

Looking strictly at the numbers, LeBron was the better player that year, but the Lakers finished 12 games ahead of Cleveland in the win column, and advanced two rounds farther in the playoffs, so Kobe was the more valuable player that season, and he is the only player in the last 7 years to supplant LeBron as the best player for an entire season.

Kobe has played in 7 NBA Finals and won 5 championships, and though he was not the best player the first four times he reached the Finals, he was easily the best #2 player ever on a championship team. Think about it: two of the 6 greatest players in history were on the same team at the same time during their best years. Had their egos not clashed, we may have been looking at the greatest dynasty in history. Instead, we have two great players who had their best years together but were still able to win titles later on with different supporting casts.

Kobe has the sort of resume necessary to be considered one of the greatest of all time. He has the longevity, with 16 years under his belt despite being only 33 years old. He's a great offensive player, as shown by his pair of scoring titles and his 10 All-NBA First Team appearances. He's also great on defense, making First Team All-Defense 9 times, and he's a winner, with enough championships to fill up one hand. The biggest thing that has held him back was that lull in the middle of his career, missing the playoffs or losing in the first round three straight times in what should have been his best years. He will probably move even higher on this list, since he is still one of the top player in the game today, but his ceiling is probably at #2 because of what he left on the table in the middle of his career.

From this chart you can see that Shaq peaked right where he should have, and that Kobe's peak is facing the wrong direction. Why is Kobe ranked ahead of Shaq? First of all, he recovered from that valley and became just as good again, making up for his weak years with longevity that actually mattered, unlike Shaq's later years. It also helps that Kobe won two more rings without Shaq in three tries, while won only one more, and he wasn't even the best player on the team at that point. It's that extra title and his ability to maintain his high level of play for so long that allowed Kobe to surpass Shaq among the all-time greatest players.

Top 100 NBA Players: #6

Shaquille O'Neal

(Kalb: #1, Simmons: #11, BBR: #11)

Shaq was one of the most physically imposing players in the history of any sport, and for a few years in his prime, he was absolutely unstoppable. He wasn't always the best player during the regular season, and he did battle a lot of injuries over the years, but he always turned his game up a notch during the playoffs, and he has plenty of rings to show for it.

When Shaq was drafted, there was no doubt that he would be the #1 overall pick, and the Rookie of the Year was practically a foregone conclusion as well, as the big man averaged 23.4 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game as a rookie. It was also the first of only 2 times in his career that his team would fail to make the playoffs, losing the tiebreaker to the Indiana Pacers and landing back in the lottery.

His third season in the NBA was a memorable one. He led the league in scoring, led Orlando to the NBA Finals for the first time, and earned the distinction of being the last player to win a playoff series against Michael Jordan, although it should be noted that Jordan had just returned two months earlier from his baseball retirement. He should have won the MVP that year, but it was given to David Robinson instead, because he led the Spurs to the league's best record, but Shaq's numbers in leading Orlando to the top seed in the East were a bit better:

O'Neal - 29.3 pts, 11.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 2.4 blk, .583 FG%, .533 FT%
Robinson - 27.6 pts, 10.8 reb, 2.9 ast, 3.2 blk, .530 FG%, .774 FT%

Robinson certainly had a strong argument for the MVP, but Shaq was slightly better, and he proved it in the playoffs, although he was severely outplayed in the Finals by Hakeem Olajuwon as Orlando was swept. The next time he reached the Finals, he made sure the outcome was different.

Shaq struggled through a few injury-plagued years before finally hitting his stride in 2000 with the Lakers, and what a stride it was. He set career-highs is scoring and assists, and nearly beat his career highs in rebounding and blocks. That was also the year he won his only MVP award, and it wasn't even close. Karl Malone was arguably the next best player that year, but look at the difference in production:

O'Neal - 29.7 pts, 13.6 reb, 3.8 ast, 3.0 blk, .574 FG%, .524 FT%
Malone - 25.5 pts, 9.5 reb, 3.7 ast, 0.9 blk, .509 FG%, .797 FT%

The only category in which Malone was superior was free throw shooting, which comes as no surprise to anyone who ever saw Shaq play. The next season he should have won another MVP, but it was awarded to Allen Iverson, who led the league in scoring and earned Philadelphia the top seed in the East, even though they finished with the same record as the Lakers. Here are their stats from that season:

O'Neal - 28.7 pts, 12.7 reb, 3.7 ast, 2.8 blk, .572 FG%, .513 FT%
Iverson - 31.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.6 ast, 2.5 stl, .420 FG%, .814 FT%

Once again, Shaq was horrible from the line, but Iverson was equally bad from the field, so those cancel each other out. Shaq's blocks and Iverson's steals are also nearly equal, and Iverson scored a few more points, but the difference is in rebounds and assists. Iverson was just average in both categories, even though he played point guard, while Shaq was a great rebounder. This award should have been Shaq's, but he got his revenge in the Finals, where they dominated the 76ers and took home their second straight title in 5 games.

The Lakers would again win the championship in 2002, which put Shaq in some very exclusive company. Only 3 players had ever led teams to 3 consecutive titles, and O'Neal was the fourth, joining George Mikan, Bill Russell, and Michael Jordan. And though he was never the best player on a champion again, he did lead the Lakers back to the Finals once more, in 2004, and won a title as D-Wade's sidekick in 2006 for Miami.

Overall, despite his shortcomings at the line and the relatively short period that he was on top, O'Neal dominated the game at a level not seen since Wilt's heyday, and when he put everything into it, nobody could stop him. He retired with 4 championships, 3 Finals MVP's, one regular MVP, and 8 seasons as one of the top 5 players in the league.

Magic ended his career with one more title than Shaq, and a few more Finals appearances, but Magic was never as dominant as O'Neal was, especially from 1999-2001, where you can see the peak on the graph above. He also earns points for longevity, but in the end what set O'Neal apart from Magic was that for a couple of years there was no doubt who the best player in the league was, and during Magic's era there was always argument about that.

NBA Playoff Odds - 19 May

The second round is now in full swing, and aside from the Pacers going up 2-1 on the Heat, there are no real surprises. The Spurs have continued to dominate, winning their 16th straight game, with 12 of those coming by double digits, and we may be getting to the point where the question goes from "Will the Spurs win the title?" to "Will the Spurs lose a game?" Here are the updated odds of each team advancing in the playoffs and ultimately winning the championship.

Odds of Making the Conference Finals

1. (1) San Antonio - 95.9% (+10.4)
2. (2) Oklahoma City - 86.7% (+13.2)
3. (6) Indiana - 61.3% (+30.5)
4. (4) Boston - 52.0% (-0.1)
5. (5) Philadelphia - 48.0% (+0.1)
6. (3) Miami - 38.7% (-30.5)
7. (8) LA Lakers - 13.3% (+2.6)
8. (10) LA Clippers - 4.1% (-2.1)

A Spurs-Thunder matchup is as close to a sure thing as I've ever seen, but the East is still up in the air, with Boston and Philly playing to a draw so far, making the 7-game series I predicted look pretty likely. Indiana has taken the edge over Miami, but the Heat aren't dead, because they still have the best player in the league on their side, even though nearly every member of the Pacer bench could start in Miami.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals

1. (1) San Antonio - 68.4% (+6.6)
2. (6) Indiana - 34.4% (+18.6)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 29.0% (+1.0)
4. (2) Miami - 25.8% (-21.2)
5. (5) Philadelphia - 19.92% (+1.9)
6. (4) Boston - 19.85% (+0.7)
7. (10) LA Lakers - 1.4% (-0.3)
8. (9) LA Clippers - 1.2% (-0.8)

The workers at the Staples Center who are working so hard to get the place ready each night for one of three playoff teams will finally be getting a break soon, because they will not have to worry about laying out the basketball court again for a while. Every remaining team in the East has a viable shot at the title, but the Pacers are the current favorites, which could set up an all-ABA matchup between them and the Spurs, the only former ABA franchise to win an NBA title.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. (1) San Antonio - 55.0% (+8.6)
2. (3) Oklahoma City - 19.3% (+2.2)
3. (2) Miami - 8.4% (-10.6)
4. (6) Indiana - 8.1% (+4.1)
5. (5) Philadelphia - 4.4% (-0.3)
6. (4) Boston - 3.8% (-1.2)

The NBA Championship trophy is almost definitely going to stay in the West this year, unless the Spurs and Thunder spend so much time beating each other up that somebody from the East is able to take advantage of extra rest and steal a couple of early games in the Finals. We may be looking at the best Spurs team that has ever played, which is saying a lot considering their history since the arrival of Tim Duncan.

Top 100 NBA Players: #7

Magic Johnson

(Kalb: #7, Simmons: #4, BBR: #6)

There have never been two careers as intertwined and parallel as those of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird. The two originally became rivals in 1979, when they met in the NCAA Championship Game, with Magic and the Michigan State Spartans coming out on top. The two left for the NBA immediately afterward and became the most heralded pair of rookies in NBA history.

The two stars happened to be drafted by the two most storied franchises in NBA history, and despite both having grown up in the Midwest, they spent their professional careers on completely opposite sides of the country, but they would have plenty of chances to meet during their time in the NBA. 13 of the 20 teams to play in the NBA Finals and 8 of the 10 teams to win titles in the 1980's were led by either Magic Johnson or Larry Bird.

Another parallel that is easily drawn between the two players is the fact that both saw their careers end prematurely, Bird due to injuries and Magic due to HIV. Each had the potential to become the best player in history, but each was cut down in his prime and forced to settle as one of the best ever.

So what puts Magic ahead of Bird? The first thing to look at is the number of titles, and Magic holds the edge over Bird 5-3, although he was only the best player on 4 of those title teams, which makes it a little closer. Of the three times the two players met in the NBA Finals, the Lakers won twice and the Celtics only once, and Magic also took his team to the Finals much more often, 9 times to Bird's 5.

In the 1980's there was only one season in which the Lakers did not advance at least to the Conference Finals, and that was the season in which Magic Johnson missed more than half of the regular season with a knee injury. The Celtics had two such seasons, one in which Bird missed most of the season, but the other season had no such explanation, with Boston being swept by the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round.

Bird's peak years were much better than Magic's, and he was able to play at that level for 5 years before he was cut down by injuries, but Magic was able to reach his peak level earlier in his career and maintained that level of play until his retirement 9 years later. For two seasons Magic was the league's best player, before Bird began his run at the top for 4 years, but Magic was never far behind, ranking as one of the top 10 players in the league in every full season he played.

With all the similarities between the two players, and how evenly they were matched up throughout their careers, the only place where you can definitively say that Magic was better than Bird was in playoff success, which happens to be the most important facet of the game. That is why Johnson is ranked just slightly ahead of Bird among the game's greatest players.

NBA Playoff Odds - 12 May

The first round is nearly over, with two final games taking place this weekend, but since the Eastern Conference finished their first round two days ago, they are starting the second round this evening. The only real surprise in the first round was Philadelphia's upset over Chicago, which was helped along by the devastating injury to Derrick Rose, but the rest of the series went pretty much according to plan. Here are the results of my first round predictions, along with the updated odds for each team advancing in the playoffs.

First Round Review

These are my original first round predictions, along with the number of games different the actual result was.

Bulls in 5 - 4
Celtics in 6 - 0
Pacers in 5 - 0
Heat in 7 - 2
Spurs in 5 - 1
Clippers in 6 - 1 or 2
Nuggets in 6 - 1 or 2
Thunder in 5 - 1

I correctly predicted the winner of 5 of the 6 series that have ended so far, and was within 1 game of being exactly correct in 4 of them. If both road teams win in game 7 this weekend, I will have picked 7 of the 8 series  correctly, with 6 being within 1 game of perfection. And in case you're wondering, here are the odds of each team pulling off the first round upset:

Nuggets over Lakers - 48.2%
Clippers over Grizzlies - 42.1%

Odds of Making the Conference Finals

1. (1) San Antonio - 85.5% (+3.5)
2. (2) Oklahoma City - 73.5% (+1.4)
3. (3) Miami - 69.2% (-0.9)
4. (5) Boston - 52.1% (+24.0)
5. (7) Philadelphia - 47.9% (+22.8)
6. (6) Indiana - 30.8% (+3.9)
7. (9) Denver - 15.8% (+2.4)
8. (8) LA Lakers - 10.7% (-3.0)
9. (12) Memphis - 8.3% (+1.9)
10. (11) LA Clippers - 6.2% (-4.6)

With both Los Angeles teams blowing 3-1 leads, each lost a lot of momentum and saw their odds of reaching the Conference Finals diminish, while nearly every other team improved its standing this week, especially Boston and Philadelphia, each of which was far from a lock to pass the first round a week ago but took care of business in 6 games. The Spurs and Thunder are becoming even more likely to meet because of the extra rest they are getting while their future opponents are being beat up in the first round.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals

1. (1) San Antonio - 61.8% (+1.8)
2. (2) Miami - 47.0% (+4.8)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 28.0% (+0.2)
4. (6) Boston - 19.2% (+8.9)
5. (7) Philadelphia - 18.0% (+8.9)
6. (5) Indiana - 15.8% (+3.9)
7. (10) Denver - 3.9% (+0.5)
8. (12) Memphis - 2.7% (+0.6)
9. (9) LA Clippers - 2.0% (-2.1)
10. (11) LA Lakers - 1.7% (-0.6)

Even with two teams still alive, Los Angeles is very unlikely to see a team in the NBA Finals, with only the city of Memphis having worse overall odds of the 9 cities with a team still alive. Miami was helped by having two Eastern Conference teams advance despite not having home court in the first round, and it's becoming increasingly likely that LeBron will face another team from Texas in the Finals.

Odds of Winning the NBA Championship

1. (1) San Antonio - 46.4% (+2.9)
2. (2) Miami - 19.0% (+2.1)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 17.1% (+1.2)
4. (6) Boston - 5.0% (+2.5)
5. (7) Philadelphia - 4.7% (+2.5)
6. (5) Indiana - 4.0% (+0.9)
7. (9) Denver - 1.6% (+0.3)
8. (NR) Memphis - 1.0% (+1.0)

The Spurs' odds of winning the title are inching closer to 50-50 every day, and it's no surprise if you step back and consider how well they've played lately. Over the last two months, they have lost only three games, and they didn't even try in one of those, and they also won twice when they weren't trying. They have had two 11-game winning streaks this year, and are currently on a 14-game streak, last losing to the Lakers over a month ago.

Updated Playoff Predictions

Second Round

Celtics over 76ers in 7
Heat over Pacers in 5
Spurs over Grippers in 5
Thunder over Nakers in 5

Conference Finals

Heat over Celtics in 5
Spurs over Thunder in 5

NBA Finals

Spurs over Heat in 6

Top 100 NBA Players: #8

Larry Bird

(Kalb: #6, Simmons: #5, BBR: #8)

Larry Bird was one of the most dominant players of the 1980's, and he put together one of the greatest 4-year runs of any player in NBA history, but back problems ended his career prematurely and prevented him from fulfilling him potential as possibly the greatest player of all time.

When Larry Bird and Magic Johnson arrived in the NBA in 1979, they were perhaps the most anticipated pair of rookies in history, and they did not disappoint. Nearly every season for the next decade ended with one of them hoisting the championship trophy, with three of those belonging to Larry Bird and the Boston Celtics. Bird was their best player from the day he entered the league until the day he walked away.

In just his second season in the NBA, he had arrived as one of the top 5 players in the NBA, and Boston finished the season with the league's top record. That season, Bird won his first NBA championship, but was not awarded the Finals MVP award because of a subpar performance in the Finals, although it's pretty obvious from looking at the overall playoff statistics of Bird and Cedric Maxwell, who won the award, that Bird was the team's best player:

Bird - 21.9 pts, 14.0 reb, 6.1 ast, 2.3 stl, 1.0 blk, .470 FG%, .375 3P%, .894 FT%
Maxwell - 16.1 pts, 7.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.9 blk, .580 FG%, .818 FT%

Bird was the better player of the two by far, but because of the perception that he wasn't playing as well as he normally did, he was not rewarded with the MVP he deserved. A couple of years later, Bird turned up his game to another level and ensured that he would not be denied any award he deserved again.

For the next four seasons, Bird was easily the best player in the league, piling up some of the most dominant seasons in history right in a row, and each of those four seasons ended in the NBA Finals, with two titles and two seasons as the runner-up. His stats over those four seasons are incredible, as you can see below:

Bird (1983-1987) - 26.6 pts, 9.9 reb, 6.9 ast, 1.8 stl, .509 FG%, .395 3P%, .894 FT%

Only four other players have ever had shooting percentages that high during a single season, including Steve Nash, and only one other player ever reached those heights in the three major categories for a full season, Oscar Robertson. Bird had one more great season left, in which he set career highs in scoring average, shooting percentage, and free throw percentage, but by that time a new, younger force had emerged as the league's top player, a young man named Michael Jordan.

The next season, Bird only played in the first six games before ending his season early to have surgery on both feet, and once he returned, back issues prevented him from ever regaining the form he had before the injuries. The Celtics never made it back to the Conference Finals during the final years of Bird's career, but with all he accomplished in a relatively short time, there is no way to argue that he doesn't belong in the discussion as one of the best players of all time.

Bird's career did not last as long as Duncan's, and he does not have as many championships either, but he did lead one more team to the Finals, and the level of play he reached during the prime of his career was far beyond anything Duncan was ever able to do, but another championship this season could push Duncan close enough that he could pass Bird at some point in the near future.

Top 100 NBA Players: #9

Tim Duncan

(Kalb: #9, Simmons: #7, BBR: #17)

Tim Duncan has been one of the most consistent players in NBA history, and though his quiet demeanor makes him easy to overlook, he has played at such a high level since the day he entered the league and has seen so much success that he can't be left out of the top 10.

When Duncan arrived in the NBA in 1997 as the #1 overall pick, he was immediately paired with recent MVP and fellow big man David Robinson in the frontcourt for the San Antonio Spurs, and he immediately established himself as one of the best players in the league. In fact, during his rookie season, only Karl Malone and Michael Jordan were better, and Duncan won the Rookie of the Month award every month of the season and was nearly a unanimous choice for Rookie of the Year.

The next season, with Jordan gone, Duncan took advantage of the void at the top and became the best player in the NBA in just his second season as a pro. His nearest competition that year was fellow power forward Karl Malone, and though Malone was voted MVP that season, Duncan took the more impressive trophy home that season, earning his first Finals MVP award. I believe that he should have won both awards that season, and here are the numbers for both players to show why:

Duncan - 21.7 pts, 11.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.5 blk, .495 FG%, .690 FT%
Malone - 23.8 pts, 9.4 reb, 4.1 ast, 0.6 blk, .493 FG%, .788 FT%

Malone was a slightly better offensive player than Duncan that year, but Duncan was easily the better defensive player, and the two teams ended up with identical records to finish the regular season, so Duncan should have been rewarded, but was overlooked because Malone was more experienced.

San Antonio was unable to repeat as champions the following season, because Duncan injured his knee right before the playoffs and the Spurs lost in the first round. After working hard for a couple seasons to get back to his peak level again, Duncan again became the league's dominant player in 2002, edging out Kobe and Shaq as the best players during the regular season and winning the MVP award. Unfortunately, he and the Spurs were no match for the Lakers in the playoffs, who knocked them out in the second round.

The next season, Duncan was once again the top player in the league and headed to the playoffs with his second MVP in hand, with different results this time. When they met up with the Lakers in the second round again, they avenged their previous losses and knocked out the 3-time defending champs in 6 games, clearing the path for Duncan to earn his second championship ring and the Finals MVP award to go with it.

Duncan remained one of the top 10 players in the league for the next several years, and the Spurs were perennial championship contenders, which is of itself a testament to his greatness. He is currently playing his 15th season, and the Spurs have made the playoffs in each of those seasons, winning 4 championships along the way. Duncan has won two MVP's and 3 Finals MVP's, although each of those numbers should have been increased by one, since Duncan didn't earn the MVP he earned in 1999, and he was still the best Spur on the 2007 championship teams, despite the fact that Tony Parker was awarded that season's Finals MVP.

There are only two other players who can claim that they were the best player for that many regular seasons and for that many championship teams as well: George Mikan and Michael Jordan. While Duncan has lost a step over the last few years, he is still one of the best players on one of the best teams in the league, and still ranks as one of the top 20 players in the league at age 35. The four titles San Antonio has won during the Duncan era puts San Antonio at #4 all time in total titles, behind only the Lakers, Celtics, and Bulls. About the only bad thing you can say about him is that he was never able to defend a championship the following year.

Duncan and West's career charts match up more closely than any others I have seen so far, with the only difference being that Duncan has been a little more consistent as he nears the end of his career, while West was a little more up-and-down. West obviously made it to the Finals much more often than Duncan has, but Duncan has the advantage of having won the title each time he got there, and he was also able to claim the title of league's best player for several years, which West never accomplished.

Updated NBA Playoff Odds

The first round of the playoffs is in full swing, and injuries have already made a huge impact, with Derrick Rose and Amare Stoudemire leaving their teams shorthanded with serious injuries, and Rajon Rondo sitting out a game due to suspension. Four underdogs have already stolen home court advantage from the favorites, which means that the odds have been shaken up quite a bit. These are the newly updated odds of each team advancing in the playoffs and winning the championship this year.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

1. LA Clippers over Memphis - 57.7%
2. Philadelphia over Chicago - 53.3%
3. Denver over LA Lakers - 39.9%
4. Atlanta over Boston - 31.2%

When the Clippers stormed back from 27 down to steal Game 1 in Memphis, it marked LA's other team as the most likely to pull an upset in the first round. That win gave them the home court advantage in the series, with three of the next four games in Los Angeles. Philadelphia wasn't even on the upset radar heading into the series with Chicago, but when Derrick Rose went down late in Game 1 with a torn ACL, Chicago was deflated and the 76ers have taken two straight games and are now favored to win the series. Denver's upset odds have decreased slightly because they weren't able to win in Los Angeles, but by winning their first home game of the series they proved that they are still alive and could knock off the Lakers. Atlanta also saw their odds dip after Boston took Game 2 in Atlanta without Rondo, but these two teams are so evenly matched that Atlanta could still take it, but they must win at least once in Boston.

Most Likely First Round Winners

1. Oklahoma City over Dallas - 98.3%
2. Miami over New York - 98.0%
3. San Antonio over Utah - 97.6%
4. Indiana over Orlando - 83.7%

The top three are all looking like sweeps, with the Spurs a little behind the others in the odds since they've only played two games. Orlando has at least put up a fight and even won a game in Indiana, but the Pacers took back the home court by returning the favor in the first game in Orlando. These four series will not last much longer.

Most Likely to Make Conference Finals

Previous ranking and percent change both in parentheses.

1. (1) San Antonio - 82.0% (+8.3)
2. (3) Oklahoma City - 72.1% (+14.7)
3. (4) Miami - 70.1% (+27.6)
4. (2) Chicago - 33.9% (-25.6)
5. (8) Boston - 28.1% (+12.0)
6. (5) Indiana - 26.9% (-3.0)
7. (13) Philadelphia - 25.1% (+16.6)
8. (11) LA Lakers - 13.7% (+3.2)
9. (6) Denver - 13.4% (-10.7)
10. (9) Atlanta - 12.9% (-3.0)
11. (10) LA Clippers - 10.8% (-1.8)
12. (12) Memphis - 6.4% (-3.5)
13. (15) Orlando - 2.1% (-4.7)

The other three teams are so unlikely to even win in the first round that their odds of winning two rounds is basically zero. The chance that we'll see the Spurs and Thunder battle it out in the West is looking pretty good, and it would be a great matchup of youth vs. experience. Miami has done more for its image this week than any other team, and that has allowed them to make a big jump here, even as their opponent in the Conference Finals becomes less clear.

Most Likely to Make NBA Finals

1. (1) San Antonio - 60.0% (+6.0)
2. (4) Miami - 42.2% (+23.2)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 27.8% (+2.4)
4. (2) Chicago - 21.0% (-22.8)
5. (5) Indiana - 11.9% (+1.7)
6. (6) Boston - 10.3% (+2.4)
7. (12) Philadelphia - 9.1% (+5.6)
8. (7) Atlanta - 4.8% (-2.7)
9. (10) LA Clippers - 4.1% (-1.1)
10. (8) Denver - 3.4% (-3.7)
11. (13) LA Lakers - 2.3% (+0.2)
12. (11) Memphis - 2.1% (-1.5)

It is becoming increasingly likely that the Spurs will make their fifth trip to the Finals in the Tim Duncan era, and while Miami is their most likely opponent, there are still four or five teams in the East with a reasonable shot of meeting them there. Oklahoma City is the only team in the West who looks like a candidate to take out the Spurs before that point.

Most Likely to Win the NBA Championship

1. (1) San Antonio - 43.5% (+6.2)
2. (4) Miami - 16.9% (+10.0)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 15.9% (+1.5)
4. (2) Chicago - 10.2% (-13.8)
5. (5) Indiana - 3.1% (+0.3)
6. (7) Boston - 2.5% (+0.2)
7. (NR) Philadelphia - 2.2% (+2.2)
8. (9) LA Clippers - 1.6% (-0.4)
9. (5) Denver - 1.3% (-1.5)
10. (8) Atlanta - 1.2% (-0.9)

There are still only 4 teams that have a real chance to win the championship, and San Antonio is definitely the favorite at this point. Miami is the hottest team in the playoffs right now, and Chicago is still in the running despite losing Rose, because they played a good portion of the season without him anyway and still earned the top overall seed, which gives them home court advantage no matter who they play the rest of the way.

Top 100 NBA Players: #10

Jerry West

(Kalb: #12, Simmons: #8, BBR: #16)

What better way to kick off the top 10 than with the player that the NBA chose to model its logo after? Jerry West was one of those rare players who would have been great in any era, and may have been remembered even more fondly if his career had come just a decade later.

Among the top 10 players of all time, West has fewer championships than 8 of the others. But if you examine his career closely, you'll see that he was one of the greatest winners of all time, just not a perennial champion. He played a total of 14 seasons in the NBA, and 9 of those seasons ended in the NBA Finals. 6 times those losses came to Bill Russell's Boston Celtics, with West as Elgin Baylor's sidekick during the first three losses and as the Lakers star during the next three losses. West's dominance continued after the end of the Celtics dynasty, and the Lakers made three more trips to the Finals in the 1970's, facing the New York Knicks each time, with the Lakers finally winning a title in 1972. Wilt Chamberlain was named the MVP of that Finals, but West was the Lakers' best player and should have been given the award. Here is a comparison of their stats from that season's playoffs:

West - 22.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 8.9 ast, .376 FG%, .830 FT%
Chamberlain - 14.7 pts, 21.0 reb, 3.3 ast, .563 FG%, .492 FT%

Wilt's 21 rebounds per game were probably what caught the voters' attention, but West either scored or assisted on over 40 points per game for the Lakers, nearly double Chamberlain's average. West had won a Finals MVP before, so I guess it evened things out, but it's pretty impressive to note that when West won the Finals MVP in 1969, he was the only player in history to win the award despite playing for the losing team. He earned it with one of the greatest Finals performances of all time, which included 53 points in Game 1 and a triple-double of 42 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 assists in Game 7, which the Lakers lost by 2.

West also holds the distinction of posting the highest scoring average over the course of a playoff series, and is the only player in the top 5 besides Michael Jordan. In the 1965 Western Conference Finals, West averaged 46.3 points per game, a record which many have approached but none have surpassed in the last 47 years. His scoring average for the entire playoffs was 40.6, which is still the highest in history.

It was unfortunate for West to have played in the 1960's more multiple reasons. One obvious one was the dominance of the Celtics during that period, but there are a couple of other reasons as well. One is that steals were not recorded until West's final season, in which he only played 31 games due to a career-ending injury. In that short span, he averaged 2.6 steals per game, at the tail end of his career. He would probably have been remembered as the greatest defensive guard in NBA history if they had just kept track of them, but his opponents still remember how tough he was on both ends of the floor.

The other thing that would have helped West if he had played in a later era was the three-point line. West was well-known for his shooting range, and one of his most famous moments involved a very long shot. In Game 3 of the 1970 NBA Finals, New York took a 2-point lead with just seconds remaining, and since the Lakers were out of timeouts, West took the inbound pass and heaved a shot from 60 feet that was right on target, tying the game (since there was no three-point line) and keeping the Lakers alive. Because of that and several other big moments near the end of games, West earned the nickname "Mr. Clutch."

West was the best player on 6 NBA Finals teams, a feat that only three other players can boast of. Those players are Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, and Bill Russell, and though those players seemed to win a lot more often, you cannot take away West's greatness from the lack of rings on his fingers. It has been said that the only thing lacking in his game was the ability to play above the rim, but West would still be recognized as a star in today's NBA.

The career paths of West and Olajuwon look pretty similar, with West starting out a little stronger, and Olajuwon coming on a little later in his career. Each was among the greatest defensive players ever at his respective position, and each led his team to a championship late in his career. While Hakeem was able to complete the trick twice, his overall Finals record of 2-1 still doesn't quite compare to West's, even though the Lakers great ended up at 1-8 in the title series, because he was there three times as often as Olajuwon.