There is still one team undefeated in college basketball, and that team has still not done enough to reach the top 25 in my rankings, despite the fact that there are 9 teams from the non-power conferences among the top teams. The two teams with just one loss are both in my top 10, but are not ranked at the very top. That slot belongs to a team that has lost 3 times, but has outplayed everybody they've faced recently. Here are the full top 25 rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing differing levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (2-0) (19-3) -21.10 (3)
2. (6) Kentucky (2-0) (21-1) -18.33 (1)
3. (3) Michigan State (1-0) (17-4) -17.01 (10)
4. (2) Kansas (1-1) (17-4) -16.53 (8)
5. (7) North Carolina (2-0) (18-3) -16.28 (6)
6. (9) Wisconsin (1-0) (17-5) -16.22 (20)
7. (5) Syracuse (2-0) (22-1) -16.19 (2)
8. (13) Florida State (1-0) (14-6) -14.28 (24)
9. (11) Florida (2-0) (17-4) -14.24 (11)
10. (4) Missouri (1-1) (19-2) -14.14 (4)
11. (12) Baylor (2-0) (19-2) -13.69 (6)
12. (15) Indiana (1-1) (17-5) -13.60 (20)
13. (19) Marquette (2-0) (18-4) -13.36 (15)
14. (14) Duke (2-0) (18-3) -13.22 (5)
15. (10) UNLV (2-0) (20-3) -13.17 (13)
16. (8) Wichita State (1-1) (18-4) -13.10 (33)
17. (16) Creighton (2-0) (20-2) -12.18 (12)
18. (20) Memphis (2-0) (15-6) -11.46 (NR)
19. (NR) Saint Mary's (2-0) (21-2) -11.37 (16)
20. (NR) Harvard (2-0) (18-2) -11.26 (23)
21. (22) Georgetown (0-1) (16-4) -10.95 (14)
22. (21) Saint Louis (1-1) (16-5) -10.70 (NR)
23. (NR) Virginia (2-0) (17-3) -10.56 (18)
24. (NR) New Mexico (2-0) (17-4) -10.55 (34)
25. (NR) Belmont (2-0) (15-7) -10.52 (NR)
Dropped Out
(23) California (1-0) (17-5) -10.27 (38)
(18) West Virginia (0-3) (15-8) -10.12 (34)
(17) Middle Tennessee State (1-1) (20-3) -10.09 (31)
(25) Long Beach State (2-0) (16-6) -10.00 (37)
(24) BYU (1-1) (18-6) -9.39 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
ACC - 4
Big 12 - 3
Big East - 3
SEC - 2
MWC - 2
MVC - 2
CUSA - 1
WCC - 1
Ivy - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
Florida State's upset victory over Duke last week was no fluke. The Seminoles are now the #2 team in the ACC, behind the Tar Heels, who they have already beaten, and they would be ranked ahead of them if it weren't for losses to Princeton and Clemson right around the new year. They have another chance to pad the resume this week against Virginia, as they set out to prove just how good they really are.
Missouri was looking pretty good last week after a one-point upset of Baylor down in Waco, but then they got too complacent with their success and let an obviously inferior Oklahoma State team beat them in a huge surprise on Wednesday night. Beating Texas Tech wasn't enough to repair the damage from that loss, but a win over Kansas this week would probably do it.
Right after I went on bragging about Wichita State last week, they went and let me down with a triple-overtime loss at Drake, a team just barely above .500 that shouldn't have given them much of a test. The Shockers never gave up, battling back from 6 points down in the second overtime to force a third, but without their two best players for the final four minutes, Wichita State got shocked and took their second conference loss.
I didn't have a lot of faith in Saint Mary's before this week, as they hadn't played up to the level I expected of them early in the season, so I had picked them to be upset twice, by Loyola Marymount and BYU. They proved me wrong with strong road wins in both instances, which got them back into my rankings for the first time in 3 weeks, and now I'm thinking that they are probably going to be the ones to finally beat Gonzaga for the WCC title, not BYU.
On Friday, Harvard traveled to Yale with the Ivy League lead on the line, and most expected it would be a close game. I pick the Crimson to win by 2, so when they demolished the Bulldogs 65-35, it suddenly became clear that there is no competition for the top spot in the Ivy League and its berth in the NCAA Tournament, and that they deserve the spot in the national rankings they've held for most of the season.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Tennessee at (1) Kentucky - Wildcats by 21
(6) North Carolina at Wake Forest - Tar Heels by 15
(10) Michigan State at Illinois - Spartans by 4
Seton Hall at (15) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 14
Clemson at (18) Virginia - Cavaliers by 16
(20) Wisconsin at Penn State - Badgers by 11
New Mexico at Air Force - Lobos by 5
Wednesday
(6) Baylor at Texas A&M - Bears by 7
Oklahoma at (8) Kansas - Jayhawks by 19
Illinois State at (12) Creighton - Bluejays by 15
Colorado State at (13) UNLV - Rebels by 17
Connecticut at (14) Georgetown - Hoyas by 9
Boise State at (17) San Diego State - Aztecs by 14
(20) Indiana at (22) Michigan - Wolverines by 1
Georgia Tech at (24) Florida State - Seminoles by 22
Wichita State at Missouri State - Shockers by 1
Memphis at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 4
Saint Bonaventure at Saint Louis - Billikens by 11
Thursday
(5) Duke at Virginia Tech - Blue Devils by 1
Southeast Missouri State at (9) Murray State - Racers by 23
South Carolina at (11) Florida - Gators by 22
San Diego at (16) Saint Mary's - Gaels by 26
Friday
Cornell at (23) Harvard - Crimson by 21
Belmont at Lipscomb - Bruins by 7
Saturday
(1) Kentucky at South Carolina - Wildcats by 13
(2) Syracuse at Saint Johns - Orange by 11
(3) Ohio State at (20) Wisconsin - Badgers by 2
(8) Kansas at (4) Missouri - Tigers by 4
(6) Baylor at Oklahoma State - Bears by 7
(6) North Carolina at Maryland - Tar Heels by 11
(9) Murray State at Tennessee-Martin - Racers by 16
Vanderbilt at (11) Florida - Gators by 11
(12) Creighton at Northern Iowa - Bluejays by 1
(13) UNLV at Wyoming - Cowboys by 1
South Florida at (14) Georgetown - Hoyas by 14
(15) Marquette at Notre Dame - Golden Eagles by 1
TCU at (17) San Diego State - Aztecs by 17
(18) Virginia at (24) Florida State - Seminoles by 10
Auburn at (19) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 15
(20) Indiana at Purdue - Boilermakers by 1
Columbia at (23) Harvard - Crimson by 21
Rutgers at (25) Louisville - Cardinals by 14
Indiana State at Wichita State - Shockers by 20
Xavier at Memphis - Tigers by 12
Dayton at Saint Louis - Billikens by 13
New Mexico at Boise State - Lobos by 5
Sunday
Miami at (5) Duke - Blue Devils by 13
(22) Michigan at (10) Michigan State - Spartans by 16
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 41-15 (.732) 325-76 overall (.810)
Upsets: 5-8 (.385) 32-21 overall (.604)
Monday, January 30, 2012
Sunday, January 29, 2012
NBA Rankings - 29 Jan
The three hottest teams in the league this week were the two top teams in the West and the Boston Celtics in the East, who came from way outside the playoff picture to move into the #7 slot with a .500 record. The Miami Heat, who were #1 last week, were not as good as expected this week, fell a bit, but today's victory over Chicago, which isn't counted in today's rankings, could help them begin to move back up. Here are the updated rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Chicago (2-1) (17-4) -5.40 (2)
2. Denver (2-0) (14-5) -4.91 (4)
3. Oklahoma City (3-0) (16-3) -3.90 (7)
4. Philadelphia (3-1) (14-6) -3.64 (3)
5. Portland (3-1) (12-8) -3.06 (9)
6. Miami (3-1) (14-5) -2.87 (1)
7. Atlanta (2-1) (14-6) -2.10 (5)
8. San Antonio (2-1) (12-8) -1.58 (11)
9. Dallas (2-1) (12-8) -0.11 (8)
10. Houston (3-1) (12-8) -0.07 (16)
11. Memphis (1-3) (10-9) 0.12 (6)
12. Boston (4-0) (9-9) 0.77 (22)
13. Minnesota (2-1) (9-10) 0.94 (15)
14. Indiana (2-2) (12-6) 0.99 (14)
15. Milwaukee (3-2) (8-11) 1.37 (19)
16. LA Clippers (2-1) (10-6) 1.71 (17)
17. LA Lakers (1-2) (11-9) 1.80 (13)
18. New Orleans (1-2) (4-15) 3.19 (20)
19. Utah (1-2) (11-7) 3.30 (10)
20. Orlando (1-3) (12-7) 3.53 (12)
21. New York (1-3) (7-13) 5.17 (23)
22. Phoenix (1-3) (7-12) 5.90 (18)
23. New Jersey (3-1) (7-13) 6.07 (24)
24. Golden State (1-2) (6-12) 6.18 (21)
25. Toronto (2-2) (6-14) 6.76 (26)
26. Cleveland (1-2) (7-11) 6.96 (25)
27. Detroit (0-4) (4-17) 9.21 (27)
28. Sacramento (0-3) (6-14) 10.78 (28)
29. Washington (2-3) (4-16) 11.27 (30)
30. Charlotte (0-5) (3-18) 15.71 (29)
The Boston Celtics were the hottest and most surprising team this week, winning all four of their games, the last three of which came against Eastern Conference contenders, including a 31-point blowout of the Orlando Magic, in which they held Orlando to a franchise-low 56 points. The Celtics went from looking dead in the water after losing 6 of 7 to looking like the Celtic teams of recent years, with a chance of making a good playoff run.
New York was able to pull out of their nosedive this week by blowing out the hapless Charlotte Bobcats, but they have not been able to pull themselves back up, with 9 losses in 10 games knocking them out of current playoff contention. In their win over Charlotte, leading scorer Carmelo Anthony finished win just 1 point, failing to hit a field goal in 8 attempts and dropping him out of MVP contention.
Miami only lost once this week, but with the competition they faced, they should have been winning by an average of 20 points per game, not 4. They atoned somewhat with their win over Chicago today, but since the game was at home, there's no guarantee that it will lead to them climbing back toward the top spot, unless they start playing up to their potential every night.
Charlotte has lost 14 of their last 15 games, helping them clinch the bottom spot without any doubt. The only team that could have found themselves at the bottom, Washington, beat Charlotte twice this week, proving that the Bobcats are at another level of inferiority altogether. If they were not playing in the Eastern Conference, it would almost be time to write them off completely, but a winning record is not a prerequisite for making the playoffs in the East.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Cleveland at Boston - Celtics by 11
Toronto at New Jersey - Nets by 5
Indiana at Orlando - Magic by 2
San Antonio at Dallas - Mavericks by 3
Atlanta at New Orleans - Hawks by 1
LA Lakers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 11
Monday
Orlando at Philadelphia - 76ers by 12
Chicago at Washington - Bulls by 12
New Orleans at Miami - Heat by 11
Minnesota at Houston - Rockets by 6
Detroit at Milwaukee - Bucks by 12
San Antonio at Memphis - Grizzlies by 3
Dallas at Phoenix - Mavericks by 2
Portland at Utah - Trail Blazers by 2
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers - Thunder by 1
Tuesday
Boston at Cleveland - Celtics by 2
New Jersey at Indiana - Pacers by 10
Atlanta at Toronto - Hawks by 4
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 9
Denver at Memphis - Nuggets by 1
Sacramento at Golden State - Warriors by 9
Charlotte at LA Lakers - Lakers by 18
Wednesday
Washington at Orlando - Magic by 12
Chicago at Philadelphia - 76ers by 3
Toronto at Boston - Celtics by 11
Detroit at New Jersey - Nets by 8
Phoenix at New Orleans - Hornets by 7
Oklahoma City at Dallas - Mavericks by 1
Miami at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Indiana at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
Houston at San Antonio - Spurs by 6
Charlotte at Portland - Trail Blazers by 23
LA Clippers at Utah - Jazz by 3
Thursday
Memphis at Atlanta - Hawks by 7
Chicago at New York - Bulls by 6
New Orleans at San Antonio - Spurs by 9
Portland at Sacramento - Trail Blazers by 9
Utah at Golden State - Warriors by 2
Denver at LA Clippers - Nuggets by 2
Friday
Cleveland at Orlando - Magic by 8
Miami at Philadelphia - 76ers by 5
Washington at Toronto - Raptors by 9
Milwaukee at Detroit - Bucks by 3
Minnesota at New Jersey - Timberwolves by 1
Phoenix at Houston - Rockets by 11
New York at Boston - Celtics by 9
Memphis at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 9
Indiana at Dallas - Mavericks by 6
LA Lakers at Denver - Nuggets by 11
Saturday
Philadelphia at Atlanta - Hawks by 3
Orlando at Indiana - Pacers by 6
LA Clippers at Washington - Clippers by 5
Dallas at Cleveland - Mavericks by 3
New Orleans at Detroit - Hornets by 2
New Jersey at New York - Knicks by 5
Houston at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 4
Chicago at Milwaukee - Bulls by 2
Oklahoma City at San Antonio - Spurs by 2
Charlotte at Phoenix - Suns by 14
LA Lakers at Utah - Jazz by 3
Denver at Portland - Trail Blazers by 3
Golden State at Sacramento - Warriors by 1
Sunday
Memphis at Boston - Celtics by 4
Toronto at Miami - Heat by 14
Prediction Results
NBA: 32-18 (.640) 72-34 overall (.679)
Upsets: 8-4 (.667) 12-7 (.632)
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Chicago (2-1) (17-4) -5.40 (2)
2. Denver (2-0) (14-5) -4.91 (4)
3. Oklahoma City (3-0) (16-3) -3.90 (7)
4. Philadelphia (3-1) (14-6) -3.64 (3)
5. Portland (3-1) (12-8) -3.06 (9)
6. Miami (3-1) (14-5) -2.87 (1)
7. Atlanta (2-1) (14-6) -2.10 (5)
8. San Antonio (2-1) (12-8) -1.58 (11)
9. Dallas (2-1) (12-8) -0.11 (8)
10. Houston (3-1) (12-8) -0.07 (16)
11. Memphis (1-3) (10-9) 0.12 (6)
12. Boston (4-0) (9-9) 0.77 (22)
13. Minnesota (2-1) (9-10) 0.94 (15)
14. Indiana (2-2) (12-6) 0.99 (14)
15. Milwaukee (3-2) (8-11) 1.37 (19)
16. LA Clippers (2-1) (10-6) 1.71 (17)
17. LA Lakers (1-2) (11-9) 1.80 (13)
18. New Orleans (1-2) (4-15) 3.19 (20)
19. Utah (1-2) (11-7) 3.30 (10)
20. Orlando (1-3) (12-7) 3.53 (12)
21. New York (1-3) (7-13) 5.17 (23)
22. Phoenix (1-3) (7-12) 5.90 (18)
23. New Jersey (3-1) (7-13) 6.07 (24)
24. Golden State (1-2) (6-12) 6.18 (21)
25. Toronto (2-2) (6-14) 6.76 (26)
26. Cleveland (1-2) (7-11) 6.96 (25)
27. Detroit (0-4) (4-17) 9.21 (27)
28. Sacramento (0-3) (6-14) 10.78 (28)
29. Washington (2-3) (4-16) 11.27 (30)
30. Charlotte (0-5) (3-18) 15.71 (29)
The Boston Celtics were the hottest and most surprising team this week, winning all four of their games, the last three of which came against Eastern Conference contenders, including a 31-point blowout of the Orlando Magic, in which they held Orlando to a franchise-low 56 points. The Celtics went from looking dead in the water after losing 6 of 7 to looking like the Celtic teams of recent years, with a chance of making a good playoff run.
New York was able to pull out of their nosedive this week by blowing out the hapless Charlotte Bobcats, but they have not been able to pull themselves back up, with 9 losses in 10 games knocking them out of current playoff contention. In their win over Charlotte, leading scorer Carmelo Anthony finished win just 1 point, failing to hit a field goal in 8 attempts and dropping him out of MVP contention.
Miami only lost once this week, but with the competition they faced, they should have been winning by an average of 20 points per game, not 4. They atoned somewhat with their win over Chicago today, but since the game was at home, there's no guarantee that it will lead to them climbing back toward the top spot, unless they start playing up to their potential every night.
Charlotte has lost 14 of their last 15 games, helping them clinch the bottom spot without any doubt. The only team that could have found themselves at the bottom, Washington, beat Charlotte twice this week, proving that the Bobcats are at another level of inferiority altogether. If they were not playing in the Eastern Conference, it would almost be time to write them off completely, but a winning record is not a prerequisite for making the playoffs in the East.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Cleveland at Boston - Celtics by 11
Toronto at New Jersey - Nets by 5
Indiana at Orlando - Magic by 2
San Antonio at Dallas - Mavericks by 3
Atlanta at New Orleans - Hawks by 1
LA Lakers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 11
Monday
Orlando at Philadelphia - 76ers by 12
Chicago at Washington - Bulls by 12
New Orleans at Miami - Heat by 11
Minnesota at Houston - Rockets by 6
Detroit at Milwaukee - Bucks by 12
San Antonio at Memphis - Grizzlies by 3
Dallas at Phoenix - Mavericks by 2
Portland at Utah - Trail Blazers by 2
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers - Thunder by 1
Tuesday
Boston at Cleveland - Celtics by 2
New Jersey at Indiana - Pacers by 10
Atlanta at Toronto - Hawks by 4
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 9
Denver at Memphis - Nuggets by 1
Sacramento at Golden State - Warriors by 9
Charlotte at LA Lakers - Lakers by 18
Wednesday
Washington at Orlando - Magic by 12
Chicago at Philadelphia - 76ers by 3
Toronto at Boston - Celtics by 11
Detroit at New Jersey - Nets by 8
Phoenix at New Orleans - Hornets by 7
Oklahoma City at Dallas - Mavericks by 1
Miami at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Indiana at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
Houston at San Antonio - Spurs by 6
Charlotte at Portland - Trail Blazers by 23
LA Clippers at Utah - Jazz by 3
Thursday
Memphis at Atlanta - Hawks by 7
Chicago at New York - Bulls by 6
New Orleans at San Antonio - Spurs by 9
Portland at Sacramento - Trail Blazers by 9
Utah at Golden State - Warriors by 2
Denver at LA Clippers - Nuggets by 2
Friday
Cleveland at Orlando - Magic by 8
Miami at Philadelphia - 76ers by 5
Washington at Toronto - Raptors by 9
Milwaukee at Detroit - Bucks by 3
Minnesota at New Jersey - Timberwolves by 1
Phoenix at Houston - Rockets by 11
New York at Boston - Celtics by 9
Memphis at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 9
Indiana at Dallas - Mavericks by 6
LA Lakers at Denver - Nuggets by 11
Saturday
Philadelphia at Atlanta - Hawks by 3
Orlando at Indiana - Pacers by 6
LA Clippers at Washington - Clippers by 5
Dallas at Cleveland - Mavericks by 3
New Orleans at Detroit - Hornets by 2
New Jersey at New York - Knicks by 5
Houston at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 4
Chicago at Milwaukee - Bulls by 2
Oklahoma City at San Antonio - Spurs by 2
Charlotte at Phoenix - Suns by 14
LA Lakers at Utah - Jazz by 3
Denver at Portland - Trail Blazers by 3
Golden State at Sacramento - Warriors by 1
Sunday
Memphis at Boston - Celtics by 4
Toronto at Miami - Heat by 14
Prediction Results
NBA: 32-18 (.640) 72-34 overall (.679)
Upsets: 8-4 (.667) 12-7 (.632)
Saturday, January 28, 2012
NBA MVP Rankings - 28 Jan
The top players all played very well this week, but some of the MVP leaders saw their teams collapse around them, hurting their standing among the top players. Of the ten players currently on my list 9 are currently on teams that are in playoff position, and six of those also would have home court advantage in the first round. Here are the updated MVP leaders, with rising players in green and falling players in red.
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 29.2 pts, 8.0 reb, 7.1 ast, 1.9 stl, .549 FG%, .379 3P%, .756 FT%
Each of the stats listed above is impressive on its own, but consider the fact that each one is higher than LeBron's career average, and these numbers are just mind-blowing. Actually, one of his stats is below his career average this season: his minutes per game, which is 3 minutes lower than his average, meaning that he's doing more than he used to with less time on the court. Miami is currently the #2 team in the East, and LeBron has done most of that without Dwyane Wade to help him out. Keep this up, and he'll take home his third MVP.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 26.3 pts, 7.6 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.2 stl, .507 FG%, .836 FT%
Durant and the Thunder have won 11 of their past 12 games, even though Durant only topped 30 points in one of those 11 wins. Oklahoma City now owns the best record in the entire NBA, and they may have the best chance at winning the Finals, especially after all the playoff experience they gained last season by making the Western Conference Finals. If Durant wants to win the MVP, he's going to have to at least keep the Thunder atop the West, but taking the top overall record would nearly clinch it.
3. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 30.2 pts, 5.7 reb, 5.6 ast, 1.2 stl, .454 FG%, .840 FT%
The Lakers have continued to struggle, but Kobe is still leading the league in scoring, and Los Angeles hasn't fallen completely out of playoff position, thanks to a win over the Clippers on Wednesday. His shooting percentage has continued to drop as the season has progressed, so if he doesn't get some help, his MVP back at home won't be getting any company.
4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 20.8 pts, 4.7 reb, 5.8 ast, 2.0 stl, .456 FG%, .781 FT%
Westbrook celebrated his big, new contract extension with his best game of the season, putting up 28 points and handing out a season-high 11 assists as the Thunder won their 11th game in the past 12. The win gave Oklahoma City the league's best record, which is why they have two players among the MVP leaders, one of only two teams that can say that.
5. Chris Bosh - MIA - 21.2 pts, 7.8 reb, 2.2 ast, .527 FG%, .796 FT%
Bosh wasn't even in my top ten last week, but that was before he put up his best week with the Heat. He topped 30 points twice, both Miami victories, and shot over 94% from the free throw line, including a perfect 14 for 14 in their win over Cleveland. If he had played better last night against the Knicks, you might have seen him pass Westbrook for the top sidekick award.
6. Blake Griffin - LAC - 21.3 pts, 11.2 reb, 3.1 ast, .521 FG%, .504 FT%
Griffin's averages are down across the board this year, but the Clippers' best player is still an obvious MVP candidate, since Chris Paul's numbers haven't been as good as usual so far. It's obvious that Griffin is doing something right, and maybe that something has something to do with his shooting percentage, which is the only statistic in which he has improved this season. There has to be a reason that a different Los Angeles team is #3 in the West, and Griffin seems to be the easiest one to spot.
7. Kevin Love - MIN - 24.9 pts, 13.8 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.1 stl, .437 FG%, .404 3P%, .806 FT%
I had Minnesota down for three upsets this week. The first, against Houston, did not happen, but you can't fault Love for that. He scored 39 points and pulled down 12 rebounds while hitting all 5 of his three-point attempts, but Minnesota was unable to upset the visitors. Upset #2 was against San Antonio yesterday, when Love let others handle more of the scoring and concentrated on grabbing 16 rebounds as the Spurs went down up north. Their next upset chance comes tomorrow against the Lakers, who are currently in the #8 spot that the Wolves so desperately want to reach.
8. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 22.5 pts, 8.9 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.1 stl, .497 FG%, .773 FT%
This week, only one number popped out when you look over Aldridge's performances, and that was his 16-rebound performance in 28 minutes against Sacramento on Monday. Other than that, he had a pretty average week, and the Blazers followed suit, winning 3 but losing twice, which keeps them in the running for the playoffs, but did nothing to set them or their star apart from the rest of the field.
9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 19.9 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.2 ast, 2.1 blk, 1.4 stl, .555 FG%, .478 FT%
Howard has still been playing pretty well lately, but Orlando suffered two of the worst losses in its history this week, including a 31-point loss at Boston, a team that had 5 players sitting out due to injury. Howard shot only 4 for 15 during that game, which definitely didn't help things, but it seems that his teammates aren't contributing much at all. This morning Howard called out his teammates for their lack of effort in recent games, so we'll see if he can get some help or if he'll be leaving town.
10. Danilo Gallinari - DEN - 17.9 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.8 ast, 1.5 stl, .467 FG%, .887 FT%
Denver has won 6 straight games, and other than the dud he put up against Philadelphia, Gallinari has been the biggest reason. His best game came against his former team, New York, where he put up 37 points and 11 rebounds while hitting 18 out of 20 free throws as the Nuggets beat the Knicks to lengthen their slide out of playoff position. Denver, meanwhile, has the #2 record in the West and looks to have gotten the better end of last season's blockbuster trade so far.
Dropping Out
Andre Iguodala - PHI - 12.9 pts, 6.2 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.9 stl, .446 FG%, .371 3P%, .671 FT%
Last week Iguodala made his first appearance among the MVP leaders, and right on cue he had the worst week he could have possibly had, averaging just 8 points on 37.5% shooting as the 76ers lost twice, one which came to the hopeless New Jersey Nets, which is absolutely inexcusable for a team that was looking like a real contender just two weeks ago.
Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 23.6 pts, 6.9 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.2 stl, .394 FG%, .803 FT%
New York finally won a game this week, but it was despite Anthony, not because of him. The Knicks' best player scored just 1 point in 30 minutes of action, quite possibly the worst game of any MVP candidate in history. In the game before that he was severely outplayed by Danilo Gallinari, the player he was traded for last year, and he shot less than 30% for the week. Maybe New York needs to give the keys back to Amare.
Honorable Mention
Derrick Rose - CHI
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Joe Johnson - ATL
James Harden - OKC
Josh Smith - ATL
Paul Millsap - UTA
Most Improved Player
1. Jeff Teague - ATL - +6.8 pts, +0.8 reb, +3.3 ast, +1.5 stl, +4.0% FG%, +3.0% 3P%
Teague stepped in as Atlanta's starting point guard in his third NBA season, and he is showing that that is exactly where he belongs. Atlanta has been one of the surprises in the East so far, currently holding the #3 spot in the conference, and Teague has been a surprise also, currently ranked #5 in the league in steals per game.
2. Greg Monroe - DET - +6.4 pts, +2.1 reb, +1.5 ast, +20.5% FT%
Monroe became a starter midway through his rookie season, and slowly climbed the Rookie of the Year rankings, although Blake Griffin and John Wall made it impossible for him to win the award, but he is even better this year than he was toward the end of last year, establishing himself as the best player in Detroit despite being only 21 years old, and he has put up two straight 20-10 games against two of the three best teams in the East.
3. Ryan Anderson - ORL - +6.0 pts, +1.2 reb, +3.0% 3P%, +6.6% FT%
Anderson has been a huge surprise so far this season, hitting over 42% of his threes so far, although he shooting nearly 60% of his shots from back there. The common thread in Orlando's two blowout losses this week was Anderson, who missed all 8 of his shots and failed to score against Boston, then didn't play against New Orleans because of a calf injury.
4. Marc Gasol - MEM - +3.2 pts, +3.2 reb, +0.7 ast
There is now a real debate over which of the Gasol brothers is a better player, and statistically there is little separating the two. Even with Rudy Gay returning, Gasol has set himself apart as the best Grizzly this year, and his three double-doubles this week are a large part of the reason that Memphis is in contention for the playoffs.
5. Marcin Gortat - PHX - +4.7 pts, +2.0 reb, +1.7% FG%
Gortat went from playing only 15 minutes per game and averaging 4 points as Dwight Howard's backup early last season to leading the Phoenix Suns in scoring in less than one season. He had 9 straight double-doubles until he was held to only 8 points against Portland last night, but there is no doubt that he was just sitting there ready to explode last season.
Honorable Mention
Ty Lawson - DEN
Kyle Lowry - HOU
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 29.2 pts, 8.0 reb, 7.1 ast, 1.9 stl, .549 FG%, .379 3P%, .756 FT%
Each of the stats listed above is impressive on its own, but consider the fact that each one is higher than LeBron's career average, and these numbers are just mind-blowing. Actually, one of his stats is below his career average this season: his minutes per game, which is 3 minutes lower than his average, meaning that he's doing more than he used to with less time on the court. Miami is currently the #2 team in the East, and LeBron has done most of that without Dwyane Wade to help him out. Keep this up, and he'll take home his third MVP.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 26.3 pts, 7.6 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.2 stl, .507 FG%, .836 FT%
Durant and the Thunder have won 11 of their past 12 games, even though Durant only topped 30 points in one of those 11 wins. Oklahoma City now owns the best record in the entire NBA, and they may have the best chance at winning the Finals, especially after all the playoff experience they gained last season by making the Western Conference Finals. If Durant wants to win the MVP, he's going to have to at least keep the Thunder atop the West, but taking the top overall record would nearly clinch it.
3. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 30.2 pts, 5.7 reb, 5.6 ast, 1.2 stl, .454 FG%, .840 FT%
The Lakers have continued to struggle, but Kobe is still leading the league in scoring, and Los Angeles hasn't fallen completely out of playoff position, thanks to a win over the Clippers on Wednesday. His shooting percentage has continued to drop as the season has progressed, so if he doesn't get some help, his MVP back at home won't be getting any company.
4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 20.8 pts, 4.7 reb, 5.8 ast, 2.0 stl, .456 FG%, .781 FT%
Westbrook celebrated his big, new contract extension with his best game of the season, putting up 28 points and handing out a season-high 11 assists as the Thunder won their 11th game in the past 12. The win gave Oklahoma City the league's best record, which is why they have two players among the MVP leaders, one of only two teams that can say that.
5. Chris Bosh - MIA - 21.2 pts, 7.8 reb, 2.2 ast, .527 FG%, .796 FT%
Bosh wasn't even in my top ten last week, but that was before he put up his best week with the Heat. He topped 30 points twice, both Miami victories, and shot over 94% from the free throw line, including a perfect 14 for 14 in their win over Cleveland. If he had played better last night against the Knicks, you might have seen him pass Westbrook for the top sidekick award.
6. Blake Griffin - LAC - 21.3 pts, 11.2 reb, 3.1 ast, .521 FG%, .504 FT%
Griffin's averages are down across the board this year, but the Clippers' best player is still an obvious MVP candidate, since Chris Paul's numbers haven't been as good as usual so far. It's obvious that Griffin is doing something right, and maybe that something has something to do with his shooting percentage, which is the only statistic in which he has improved this season. There has to be a reason that a different Los Angeles team is #3 in the West, and Griffin seems to be the easiest one to spot.
7. Kevin Love - MIN - 24.9 pts, 13.8 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.1 stl, .437 FG%, .404 3P%, .806 FT%
I had Minnesota down for three upsets this week. The first, against Houston, did not happen, but you can't fault Love for that. He scored 39 points and pulled down 12 rebounds while hitting all 5 of his three-point attempts, but Minnesota was unable to upset the visitors. Upset #2 was against San Antonio yesterday, when Love let others handle more of the scoring and concentrated on grabbing 16 rebounds as the Spurs went down up north. Their next upset chance comes tomorrow against the Lakers, who are currently in the #8 spot that the Wolves so desperately want to reach.
8. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 22.5 pts, 8.9 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.1 stl, .497 FG%, .773 FT%
This week, only one number popped out when you look over Aldridge's performances, and that was his 16-rebound performance in 28 minutes against Sacramento on Monday. Other than that, he had a pretty average week, and the Blazers followed suit, winning 3 but losing twice, which keeps them in the running for the playoffs, but did nothing to set them or their star apart from the rest of the field.
9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 19.9 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.2 ast, 2.1 blk, 1.4 stl, .555 FG%, .478 FT%
Howard has still been playing pretty well lately, but Orlando suffered two of the worst losses in its history this week, including a 31-point loss at Boston, a team that had 5 players sitting out due to injury. Howard shot only 4 for 15 during that game, which definitely didn't help things, but it seems that his teammates aren't contributing much at all. This morning Howard called out his teammates for their lack of effort in recent games, so we'll see if he can get some help or if he'll be leaving town.
10. Danilo Gallinari - DEN - 17.9 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.8 ast, 1.5 stl, .467 FG%, .887 FT%
Denver has won 6 straight games, and other than the dud he put up against Philadelphia, Gallinari has been the biggest reason. His best game came against his former team, New York, where he put up 37 points and 11 rebounds while hitting 18 out of 20 free throws as the Nuggets beat the Knicks to lengthen their slide out of playoff position. Denver, meanwhile, has the #2 record in the West and looks to have gotten the better end of last season's blockbuster trade so far.
Dropping Out
Andre Iguodala - PHI - 12.9 pts, 6.2 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.9 stl, .446 FG%, .371 3P%, .671 FT%
Last week Iguodala made his first appearance among the MVP leaders, and right on cue he had the worst week he could have possibly had, averaging just 8 points on 37.5% shooting as the 76ers lost twice, one which came to the hopeless New Jersey Nets, which is absolutely inexcusable for a team that was looking like a real contender just two weeks ago.
Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 23.6 pts, 6.9 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.2 stl, .394 FG%, .803 FT%
New York finally won a game this week, but it was despite Anthony, not because of him. The Knicks' best player scored just 1 point in 30 minutes of action, quite possibly the worst game of any MVP candidate in history. In the game before that he was severely outplayed by Danilo Gallinari, the player he was traded for last year, and he shot less than 30% for the week. Maybe New York needs to give the keys back to Amare.
Honorable Mention
Derrick Rose - CHI
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Joe Johnson - ATL
James Harden - OKC
Josh Smith - ATL
Paul Millsap - UTA
Most Improved Player
1. Jeff Teague - ATL - +6.8 pts, +0.8 reb, +3.3 ast, +1.5 stl, +4.0% FG%, +3.0% 3P%
Teague stepped in as Atlanta's starting point guard in his third NBA season, and he is showing that that is exactly where he belongs. Atlanta has been one of the surprises in the East so far, currently holding the #3 spot in the conference, and Teague has been a surprise also, currently ranked #5 in the league in steals per game.
2. Greg Monroe - DET - +6.4 pts, +2.1 reb, +1.5 ast, +20.5% FT%
Monroe became a starter midway through his rookie season, and slowly climbed the Rookie of the Year rankings, although Blake Griffin and John Wall made it impossible for him to win the award, but he is even better this year than he was toward the end of last year, establishing himself as the best player in Detroit despite being only 21 years old, and he has put up two straight 20-10 games against two of the three best teams in the East.
3. Ryan Anderson - ORL - +6.0 pts, +1.2 reb, +3.0% 3P%, +6.6% FT%
Anderson has been a huge surprise so far this season, hitting over 42% of his threes so far, although he shooting nearly 60% of his shots from back there. The common thread in Orlando's two blowout losses this week was Anderson, who missed all 8 of his shots and failed to score against Boston, then didn't play against New Orleans because of a calf injury.
4. Marc Gasol - MEM - +3.2 pts, +3.2 reb, +0.7 ast
There is now a real debate over which of the Gasol brothers is a better player, and statistically there is little separating the two. Even with Rudy Gay returning, Gasol has set himself apart as the best Grizzly this year, and his three double-doubles this week are a large part of the reason that Memphis is in contention for the playoffs.
5. Marcin Gortat - PHX - +4.7 pts, +2.0 reb, +1.7% FG%
Gortat went from playing only 15 minutes per game and averaging 4 points as Dwight Howard's backup early last season to leading the Phoenix Suns in scoring in less than one season. He had 9 straight double-doubles until he was held to only 8 points against Portland last night, but there is no doubt that he was just sitting there ready to explode last season.
Honorable Mention
Ty Lawson - DEN
Kyle Lowry - HOU
Monday, January 23, 2012
College Basketball Rankings - 23 Jan
Only one undefeated team remains among the 344 teams in Division I college basketball, thanks to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who took down #1 Syracuse in a game they dominated from start to finish, leaving only the Murray State Racers unblemished. Kentucky is the new #1 in the national polls, but they have yet to crack the top 5 in my statistical rankings. Here are this week's updated rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (1-0) (17-3) -22.71 (3)
2. (3) Kansas (2-0) (16-3) -19.30 (5)
3. (4) Michigan State (1-1) (16-4) -17.01 (11)
4. (5) Missouri (2-0) (18-1) -16.81 (2)
5. (2) Syracuse (1-1) (20-1) -16.61 (4)
6. (6) Kentucky (2-0) (19-1) -16.45 (1)
7. (10) North Carolina (1-0) (16-3) -16.44 (8)
8. (13) Wichita State (2-0) (17-3) -15.92 (29)
9. (9) Wisconsin (2-0) (16-5) -15.47 (25)
10. (8) UNLV (2-0) (18-3) -15.39 (15)
11. (12) Florida (1-0) (15-4) -14.27 (13)
12. (11) Baylor (0-2) (17-2) -14.21 (7)
13. (18) Florida State (2-0) (13-6) -13.91 (26)
14. (7) Duke (1-1) (16-3) -13.88 (6)
15. (15) Indiana (1-1) (16-4) -12.74 (17)
16. (22) Creighton (2-0) (18-2) -12.33 (14)
17. (25) Middle Tennessee State (2-0) (19-2) -12.10 (30)
18. (20) West Virginia (2-0) (15-5) -12.00 (28)
19. (21) Marquette (2-0) (16-4) -11.95 (18)
20. (17) Memphis (1-1) (13-6) -11.80 (NR)
21. (NR) Saint Louis (1-0) (15-4) -11.70 (NR)
22. (19) Georgetown (2-0) (16-3) -11.39 (10)
23. (24) California (1-1) (16-5) -11.17 (NR)
24. (14) BYU (2-1) (17-5) -11.14 (NR)
25. (NR) Long Beach State (2-0) (14-6) -11.00 (NR)
Dropped Out
(23) Alabama (0-2) (13-6) -10.82 (NR)
(16) New Mexico (0-2) (15-4) -10.58 (38)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 4
Big 12 - 3
ACC - 3
SEC - 2
MVC - 2
MWC - 1
Sun Belt - 1
CUSA - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
WCC - 1
Big West - 1
The Wichita State Shockers entered my top 10 this week despite not being ranked nationally in either major poll, but they have had a very strong start in the Missouri Valley Conference, which is always among the strongest of the mid-majors, with their only loss coming to Creighton, who has been ranked all season long. Their most impressive win of the season came over UNLV in early December, when they beat the Rebels by 19. The Shockers are a very balanced team, with three players averaging over 12 points per game, but none scoring over 12.5.
Wisconsin has finally found their way back into the top 25 of the ESPN poll, although their drop was kind of extreme considering the fact that 4 of their 5 losses were to ranked teams, and they have beaten both BYU and UNLV already. They also play in the toughest conference, so a few losses are to be expected. They have two great upset opportunities coming up, with Indiana and Ohio State both making visits to Madison in the next 12 days.
Speaking of UNLV, the Rebels have lost three games all season, two to the teams ranked directly above them here, and one to San Diego State on the road, a team that has reached the top 25 nationally, although they are still only #69 by my calculations. Their big win came Thanksgiving weekend, when they beat then-#1 North Carolina. Senior Chace Stanback leads the team in scoring at 14.7 per game, but his biggest contribution has been from long range, where he is shooting 47.7% this season, up more than 11% over his previous best.
After four weeks away from the top 25, the Long Beach State 49ers are back with 7 straight wins to open conference play, including a 23-point victory over UC-Santa Barbara on the road, which is important because the Gauchos are in second place in the Big West so far. The Big West schedule is not very difficult, so the 49ers must win big every night if they want to maintain this spot for much longer.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
(1) Kentucky at Georgia - Wildcats by 10
(7) Baylor at Oklahoma - Bears by 4
(12) San Diego State at Wyoming - Cowboys by 8
South Florida at (18) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 15
(22) Michigan at Purdue - Boilermakers by 8
Wednesday
(2) Missouri at Oklahoma State - Tigers by 10
Penn State at (3) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 31
(6) Duke at Maryland - Blue Devils by 9
Minnesota at (11) Michigan State - Spartans by 17
(14) Creighton at Drake - Bluejays by 5
(15) UNLV at Boise State - Rebels by 9
LSU at (16) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 10
(24) Kansas State at Texas Tech - Wildcats by 11
Villanova at (25) Louisville - Cardinals by 9
BYU at Virginia Tech - Hokies by 3
Evansville at Wichita State - Shockers by 22
Rice at Memphis - Tigers by 20
Florida State at Wake Forest - Seminoles by 11
West Virginia at Saint John's - Mountaineers by 10
Saint Louis at Xavier - Musketeers by 3
Thursday
North Carolina State at (8) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 17
(13) Florida at Mississippi - Gators by 4
(17) Indiana at (25) Wisconsin - Badgers by 10
(20) Saint Mary's at Loyola Marymount - Lions by 1
Boston College at (21) Virginia - Cavaliers by 27
Troy at Middle Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 26
Long Beach State at Cal-Riverside - 49ers by 9
Friday
(23) Harvard at Yale - Crimson by 2
Saturday
(1) Kentucky at LSU - Wildcats by 6
Texas Tech at (2) Missouri - Tigers by 31
West Virginia at (4) Syracuse - Orange by 12
(5) Kansas at Iowa State - Jayhawks by 5
Saint John's at (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 26
Texas at (7) Baylor - Bears by 11
Eastern Illinois at (9) Murray State - Racers by 26
(10) Georgetown at Pittsburgh - Hoyas by 1
(12) San Diego State at Colorado State - Rams by 4
(16) Mississippi State at (13) Florida - Gators by 14
Bradley at (14) Creighton - Bluejays by 24
(15) UNLV at Air Force - Rebels by 9
(18) Marquette at Villanova - Wildcats by 1
(20) Saint Mary's at BYU - Cougars by 8
(21) Virginia at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 2
(23) Harvard at Brown - Crimson by 16
Oklahoma at (24) Kansas State - Wildcats by 14
(25) Louisville at Seton Hall - Pirates by 9
Wichita State at Drake - Shockers by 9
Middle Tennessee State at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 4
Marshall at Memphis - Tigers by 14
Cal State-Fullerton at Long Beach State - 49ers by 17
Saint Louis at Massachusetts - Minutemen by 1
Sunday
(22) Michigan at (3) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 23
Georgia Tech at (8) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 23
Iowa at (17) Indiana - Hoosiers by 18
Notre Dame at (19) Connecticut - Huskies by 11
Stanford at California - Golden Bears by 13
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 36-17 (.679) 284-61 overall (.823)
Upsets: 8-5 (.615) 27-13 overall (.675)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (1-0) (17-3) -22.71 (3)
2. (3) Kansas (2-0) (16-3) -19.30 (5)
3. (4) Michigan State (1-1) (16-4) -17.01 (11)
4. (5) Missouri (2-0) (18-1) -16.81 (2)
5. (2) Syracuse (1-1) (20-1) -16.61 (4)
6. (6) Kentucky (2-0) (19-1) -16.45 (1)
7. (10) North Carolina (1-0) (16-3) -16.44 (8)
8. (13) Wichita State (2-0) (17-3) -15.92 (29)
9. (9) Wisconsin (2-0) (16-5) -15.47 (25)
10. (8) UNLV (2-0) (18-3) -15.39 (15)
11. (12) Florida (1-0) (15-4) -14.27 (13)
12. (11) Baylor (0-2) (17-2) -14.21 (7)
13. (18) Florida State (2-0) (13-6) -13.91 (26)
14. (7) Duke (1-1) (16-3) -13.88 (6)
15. (15) Indiana (1-1) (16-4) -12.74 (17)
16. (22) Creighton (2-0) (18-2) -12.33 (14)
17. (25) Middle Tennessee State (2-0) (19-2) -12.10 (30)
18. (20) West Virginia (2-0) (15-5) -12.00 (28)
19. (21) Marquette (2-0) (16-4) -11.95 (18)
20. (17) Memphis (1-1) (13-6) -11.80 (NR)
21. (NR) Saint Louis (1-0) (15-4) -11.70 (NR)
22. (19) Georgetown (2-0) (16-3) -11.39 (10)
23. (24) California (1-1) (16-5) -11.17 (NR)
24. (14) BYU (2-1) (17-5) -11.14 (NR)
25. (NR) Long Beach State (2-0) (14-6) -11.00 (NR)
Dropped Out
(23) Alabama (0-2) (13-6) -10.82 (NR)
(16) New Mexico (0-2) (15-4) -10.58 (38)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 4
Big 12 - 3
ACC - 3
SEC - 2
MVC - 2
MWC - 1
Sun Belt - 1
CUSA - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
WCC - 1
Big West - 1
The Wichita State Shockers entered my top 10 this week despite not being ranked nationally in either major poll, but they have had a very strong start in the Missouri Valley Conference, which is always among the strongest of the mid-majors, with their only loss coming to Creighton, who has been ranked all season long. Their most impressive win of the season came over UNLV in early December, when they beat the Rebels by 19. The Shockers are a very balanced team, with three players averaging over 12 points per game, but none scoring over 12.5.
Wisconsin has finally found their way back into the top 25 of the ESPN poll, although their drop was kind of extreme considering the fact that 4 of their 5 losses were to ranked teams, and they have beaten both BYU and UNLV already. They also play in the toughest conference, so a few losses are to be expected. They have two great upset opportunities coming up, with Indiana and Ohio State both making visits to Madison in the next 12 days.
Speaking of UNLV, the Rebels have lost three games all season, two to the teams ranked directly above them here, and one to San Diego State on the road, a team that has reached the top 25 nationally, although they are still only #69 by my calculations. Their big win came Thanksgiving weekend, when they beat then-#1 North Carolina. Senior Chace Stanback leads the team in scoring at 14.7 per game, but his biggest contribution has been from long range, where he is shooting 47.7% this season, up more than 11% over his previous best.
After four weeks away from the top 25, the Long Beach State 49ers are back with 7 straight wins to open conference play, including a 23-point victory over UC-Santa Barbara on the road, which is important because the Gauchos are in second place in the Big West so far. The Big West schedule is not very difficult, so the 49ers must win big every night if they want to maintain this spot for much longer.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
(1) Kentucky at Georgia - Wildcats by 10
(7) Baylor at Oklahoma - Bears by 4
(12) San Diego State at Wyoming - Cowboys by 8
South Florida at (18) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 15
(22) Michigan at Purdue - Boilermakers by 8
Wednesday
(2) Missouri at Oklahoma State - Tigers by 10
Penn State at (3) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 31
(6) Duke at Maryland - Blue Devils by 9
Minnesota at (11) Michigan State - Spartans by 17
(14) Creighton at Drake - Bluejays by 5
(15) UNLV at Boise State - Rebels by 9
LSU at (16) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 10
(24) Kansas State at Texas Tech - Wildcats by 11
Villanova at (25) Louisville - Cardinals by 9
BYU at Virginia Tech - Hokies by 3
Evansville at Wichita State - Shockers by 22
Rice at Memphis - Tigers by 20
Florida State at Wake Forest - Seminoles by 11
West Virginia at Saint John's - Mountaineers by 10
Saint Louis at Xavier - Musketeers by 3
Thursday
North Carolina State at (8) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 17
(13) Florida at Mississippi - Gators by 4
(17) Indiana at (25) Wisconsin - Badgers by 10
(20) Saint Mary's at Loyola Marymount - Lions by 1
Boston College at (21) Virginia - Cavaliers by 27
Troy at Middle Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 26
Long Beach State at Cal-Riverside - 49ers by 9
Friday
(23) Harvard at Yale - Crimson by 2
Saturday
(1) Kentucky at LSU - Wildcats by 6
Texas Tech at (2) Missouri - Tigers by 31
West Virginia at (4) Syracuse - Orange by 12
(5) Kansas at Iowa State - Jayhawks by 5
Saint John's at (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 26
Texas at (7) Baylor - Bears by 11
Eastern Illinois at (9) Murray State - Racers by 26
(10) Georgetown at Pittsburgh - Hoyas by 1
(12) San Diego State at Colorado State - Rams by 4
(16) Mississippi State at (13) Florida - Gators by 14
Bradley at (14) Creighton - Bluejays by 24
(15) UNLV at Air Force - Rebels by 9
(18) Marquette at Villanova - Wildcats by 1
(20) Saint Mary's at BYU - Cougars by 8
(21) Virginia at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 2
(23) Harvard at Brown - Crimson by 16
Oklahoma at (24) Kansas State - Wildcats by 14
(25) Louisville at Seton Hall - Pirates by 9
Wichita State at Drake - Shockers by 9
Middle Tennessee State at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 4
Marshall at Memphis - Tigers by 14
Cal State-Fullerton at Long Beach State - 49ers by 17
Saint Louis at Massachusetts - Minutemen by 1
Sunday
(22) Michigan at (3) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 23
Georgia Tech at (8) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 23
Iowa at (17) Indiana - Hoosiers by 18
Notre Dame at (19) Connecticut - Huskies by 11
Stanford at California - Golden Bears by 13
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 36-17 (.679) 284-61 overall (.823)
Upsets: 8-5 (.615) 27-13 overall (.675)
Sunday, January 22, 2012
NBA Rankings - 22 Jan
Memphis and Houston enter today with 6-game winning streaks, but only one of them has played better than expected over that stretch, thereby allowing them to move up in the rankings. Meanwhile, a team that has lost 7 straight still moved up in my rankings due to the strength of their opponents and how close some of those losses were. Last week's #1 team lost twice this week when only one was expected, and as a result there is a new #1 team this week, and it happens to be the team that beat them yesterday. Here are the updated rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Miami (3-0) (11-4) -10.28 (3)
2. Chicago (3-1) (15-3) -8.91 (2)
3. Philadelphia (2-2) (11-5) -7.76 (1)
4. Denver (4-1) (12-5) -5.41 (10)
5. Atlanta (3-1) (12-5) -4.80 (4)
6. Memphis (4-0) (9-6) -4.34 (17)
7. Oklahoma City (2-1) (13-3) -3.31 (6)
8. Dallas (2-2) (10-7) -2.94 (5)
9. Portland (2-2) (9-7) -2.43 (12)
10. Utah (3-1) (10-5) -2.24 (18)
11. San Antonio (2-3) (10-7) -1.44 (8)
12. Orlando (3-1) (11-4) -1.03 (11)
13. LA Lakers (1-2) (10-7) -0.95 (13)
14. Indiana (1-1) (10-4) -0.70 (9)
15. Minnesota (3-1) (7-9) 0.05 (14)
16. Houston (4-0) (9-7) 1.16 (15)
17. LA Clippers (2-2) (8-5) 1.51 (7)
18. Phoenix (2-2) (6-9) 1.96 (21)
19. Milwaukee (1-2) (5-9) 2.40 (22)
20. New Orleans (0-4) (3-13) 3.95 (24)
21. Golden State (2-2) (5-10) 4.42 (27)
22. Boston (1-2) (5-9) 4.64 (20)
23. New York (0-4) (6-10) 6.84 (19)
24. New Jersey (1-2) (4-12) 7.09 (25)
25. Cleveland (1-3) (6-9) 7.69 (16)
26. Toronto (0-3) (4-12) 8.16 (23)
27. Detroit (1-4) (4-13) 8.32 (26)
28. Sacramento (2-2) (6-11) 8.70 (28)
29. Charlotte (0-3) (3-13) 9.00 (30)
30. Washington (1-2) (2-13) 9.92 (29)
Miami played only three games this week, and all were at home, but they were also all against very tough competition. They beat the Spurs, Lakers, and 76ers by an average of 18 points each this week, and they did it all without Dwyane Wade, who is out with a sprained ankle. All this has also given LeBron James the boost he needed to take over the top spot in my MVP rankings, which I posted yesterday.
Denver is now the top-rated team in the West, thanks to a four-game winning streak that has happened during an East Coast road trip. None of the wins was by a huge margin, and two of them were in overtime, but the win over Philadelphia along with the fact that all of the wins came on the road has made the Nuggets look stronger than anybody else on this side of the country.
Memphis is currently on a 6-game winning streak, but if you want to know why they are in the top 10, look no further than win #3 in that streak, a 16-point victory over the Chicago Bulls, the team with the best record in the NBA and the second-best team according to my formula. They are playing four road games on the West Coast this week against teams that are better on average than their recent opponents, so they may have a bit of trouble extending their streak much farther.
Utah's only loss this week came to the defending champs, and all three of their wins came against teams that I believe will make the playoffs, and all of those were also double-digit victories. The only two losses by the Jazz in 2012 came by 3 points to the two most recent Western Conference Champions, both still sporting their MVP's.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Monday
Washington at Philadelphia - 76ers by 22
Orlando at Boston - Magic by 1
San Antonio at New Orleans - Spurs by 1
New Jersey at Chicago - Bulls by 21
Atlanta at Milwaukee - Hawks by 3
Houston at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 6
Detroit at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 16
Phoenix at Dallas - Mavericks by 9
Sacramento at Portland - Trail Blazers by 16
Memphis at Golden State - Grizzlies by 4
Tuesday
Orlando at Indiana - Pacers by 4
New York at Charlotte - Bobcats by 2
Cleveland at Miami - Heat by 23
Toronto at Phoenix - Suns by 11
Memphis at Portland - Trail Blazers by 3
Wednesday
New York at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 4
New Jersey at Philadelphia - 76ers by 19
Charlotte at Washington - Wizards by 4
Miami at Detroit - Heat by 14
Indiana at Chicago - Bulls by 13
Milwaukee at Houston - Rockets by 6
New Orleans at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 12
Minnesota at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Atlanta at San Antonio - Spurs by 1
Toronto at Utah - Jazz by 15
Denver at Sacramento - Nuggets by 10
Portland at Golden State - Trail Blazers by 2
LA Clippers vs. LA Lakers - Lakers by 3
Thursday
Boston at Orlando - Magic by 10
Memphis at LA Clippers - Grizzlies by 1
Friday
Charlotte at Philadelphia - 76ers by 21
Indiana at Boston - Pacers by 1
New Jersey at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 4
Atlanta at Detroit - Hawks by 9
Orlando at New Orleans - Magic by 1
Milwaukee at Chicago - Bulls by 16
Washington at Houston - Rockets by 13
New York at Miami - Heat by 22
San Antonio at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Utah at Dallas - Mavericks by 5
Toronto at Denver - Nuggets by 18
Phoenix at Portland - Trail Blazers by 9
Oklahoma City at Golden State - Thunder by 3
Saturday
Detroit at Philadelphia - 76ers by 21
Washington at Charlotte - Bobcats by 5
New York at Houston - Rockets by 10
LA Lakers at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Sacramento at Utah - Jazz by 15
Memphis at Phoenix - Grizzlies by 2
Sunday
Chicago at Miami - Heat by 6
Cleveland at Boston - Celtics by 8
Toronto at New Jersey - Nets by 6
Indiana at Orlando - Magic by 5
San Antonio at Dallas - Mavericks by 6
Atlanta at New Orleans - Hawks by 4
LA Lakers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 4
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 11
Prediction Results
NBA: 40-16 (.714)
Upsets: 4-3 (.571)
Saturday, January 21, 2012
NBA MVP Rankings - 21 Jan
Last week, Kobe Bryant was on fire, putting up 40 points every night and having the Lakers looking like title contenders. A lot can happen in just one week, because neither of those is true anymore. As a result, there is a new, albeit familiar, face atop the MVP rankings, and two new ones in the top 10, replacing players that didn't live up to the hype this week. Here are my current top 10 MVP contenders, with rising players in green and falling players in red. Also, check out my 6th man rankings at the bottom of the post.
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 29.9 pts, 7.9 reb, 7.6 ast, 2.0 stl, .563 FG%, .474 3P%, .718 FT%
The week didn't start out well for the Heat, who lost three straight games and were not looking like a great team, and it didn't help that Dwyane Wade got hurt for the second time this season, but then King James took over and started playing like the superstar he is, putting up 3 straight 30-point games while shooting over 60% from long distance and pulling Miami up to #4 in the East standings. He's been the best player for years now, and now he's basically doing it alone again, like he did for all those years in Cleveland, with similar results.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 26.5 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.1 stl, .498 FG%, .841 FT%
Other than a head-scratching loss at last-place Washington on Wednesday, this was a solid week for the two-time defending scoring champ. He was perfect from the free throw line (24-24) and put up nearly 30 points per game while keeping the Thunder in the West's top spot, but he didn't do anything spectacular enough to warrant moving him up a spot, especially since his teammate, Russell Westbrook, had his best week of the season, which hurt Durant's chances of moving up.
3. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 30.4 pts, 5.5 reb, 5.7 ast, 1.4 stl, .454 FG%, .843 FT%
The Lakers went 1-3 this week. In the three losses, Kobe averaged 32 points per game. In their lone win, against the Mavericks, he put up only 14 points. So not only did his streak of 40-point games come to an end, the Lakers nearly dropped out of the playoffs and played better without his help this week. No matter what your MVP criteria are, there's no way Kobe can keep from falling this week.
4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 20.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 5.5 ast, 1.7 stl, .452 FG%, .805 FT%
This week, Westbrook averaged 27-7-6, shot over 50% from the field and long distance, and hit nearly 90% of his free throws, by far his strongest week of the season. Last week he was barely even among my top 10 players, and I said that he was having a disappointing season, but that he might be turning a corner, and it looks like he did just that in the past 7 days, giving the Thunder the best 1-2 punch in the entire league, at least until Wade is back at full strength in Miami.
5. Dwight Howard - ORL - 20.2 pts, 16.1 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.3 blk, 1.4 stl, .575 FG%, .458 FT%
Howard was completely shut down by the defense of the New York Knicks on Monday (yes, you read that right), scoring 8 points on 3-6 shooting as his teammates took over and led the Magic to victory. Then he redeemed himself with two straight 20-20 performances against the Spurs and Lakers, which kept him from plummeting in the rankings. In fact, if Westbrook hadn't been so great this week, he might have been able to maintain his #4 spot, even after the New York debacle.
6. Kevin Love - MIN - 24.7 pts, 14.5 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.1 stl, .426 FG%, .809 FT%
Minnesota still hasn't crept into the playoff picture in the West, but if Love keeps playing like he has so far this season, it would be no surprise to find the Wolves among the top 8 teams in the conference within the next two weeks. Last night he had the highlight of the night as he hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give his team a road upset of the Los Angeles Clippers, who are currently among the top 4 seeds in the West.
7. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 23.2 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.4 stl, .491 FG%, .768 FT%
Aldridge earned this spot with his game last night in Toronto, Portland's fifth straight game on the road in 8 days, when he dominated the Raptor big men for 33 points and 23 rebounds, while still finding time to hand out 5 assists. With Brandon Roy's retirement just before the season began, Aldridge is the unquestioned leader of the Blazers, and he has taken them on his back and carried them just like he did in the second half of last season.
8. Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 25.7 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.1 ast, 1.4 stl, .412 FG%, .813 FT%
Carmelo had a very inconsistent week, sitting out one game and playing horribly in a loss to Phoenix on Wednesday, finishing 5-22 for 12 points as the Knicks continued to struggle. That game was sandwiched between two 30-point games, both of which were also losses, putting New York's losing streak at 5 games and dropping them nearly out of the current playoff picture.
9. Blake Griffin - LAC - 21.2 pts, 11.7 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.0 stl, .509 FG%, .526 FT%
The Clippers had their busiest week of the season so far, and while Griffin was pulling down rebounds like normal, his shooting was just off, especially in LA's two losses, to Utah and Minnesota. His field goal percentage has nearly matched his free throw percentage, which is not a good thing, especially since he isn't the defensive beast that Dwight Howard is, which makes up for Howard's lack of shooting skill from the stripe.
10. Andre Iguodala - PHI - 14.3 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.3 ast, 2.1 stl, .460 FG%, .662 FT%
Iguodala is the only player on this list who isn't scoring over 20 points per game, and he isn't even close to reaching that plateau, but he is a better all-around player than anyone on this list other than LeBron, Kobe, and Westbrook, and he has the 76ers at #2 in the East and looking like a real challenger to the Bulls and Heat as the best team in the East. Philly's small forward is the first player with real MVP potential in the City of Brotherly Love since Iverson left over 5 years ago.
Dropping Out
Derrick Rose - CHI - 20.8 pts, 3.5 reb, 8.7 ast, .439 FG%, .877 FT%
Chicago is still holding onto the best record in the league, and Rose is their best player, but he has sat out the past three games, and the Bulls still managed to win two of them. In the game he did play he only scored 18 points on 35% shooting, so maybe a break to get healthy could help him get back onto this list again later this season.
Pau Gasol - LAL - 16.3 pts, 9.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.3 blk, .518 FG%, .783 FT%
Gasol's numbers were down across the board this week as the Lakers took a nosedive in the standings. I'm not sure whether Kobe is trying to do too much or Gasol is doing too little, but these two need to figure out their roles if they want to see an MVP, or even more importantly, a playoff berth.
Honorable Mention
Luol Deng - CHI
Chris Bosh - MIA
Derrick Rose - CHI
Danilo Gallinari - DEN
Paul Millsap - UTA
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Ryan Anderson - ORL
Sixth Man of the Year
1. James Harden - OKC - 16.3 pts, 3.9 reb, 3.1 ast, .450 FG%, .867 FT%
Harden has continued to improve every aspect of his game during his third season as a pro, increasing his average in every category but steals so far in this season despite the fact that he is still coming off the bench. His minutes have only increased by 3 per game, so there's more to his statistical jump than just being on the court more. He will be around for a while, and right now there's no doubt that this award is his if he doesn't become a starter.
2. Al Harrington - DEN - 14.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 0.9 ast, 1.4 stl, .554 FG%, .675 FT%
Who would have thought that the Nuggets would be #2 in the West at any point this season, with so many of their players stuck playing overseas? Al Harrington is taking advantage of the extra minutes that are available by shooting far better than he ever has before, 8% better than his career best and 11% better than his career average. If he can keep it up and keep Denver in the playoff hunt, he could have a shot to beat out Harden for Sixth Man.
3. Louis Williams - PHI - 15.1 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.5 ast, .411 FG%, .859 FT%
Williams has been riding the 76ers bench for over 6 years now, and he has steadily improved over the years, until today, at 25 years old, when he is having what looks like his best season yet. When he was playing 30 minutes per game two seasons ago, he still only averaged 14 points per game, and now he is over 15 per game with only 25 minutes of court time a night. It looks like he has finally matured into an NBA player.
4. Andre Miller - DEN - 9.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 6.3 ast, 1.3 stl, .438 FG%, .775 FT%
Miller continues to be a steady veteran player who has the potential to explode once in a while, which is exactly what happened on Wednesday, when he posted 28 points and 10 assists on the 76ers, one of his former teams. He followed it up with 0 points and 5 assists against Washington on Friday, but on the balance he is a very important part of a deep Nuggets bench.
5. Evan Turner - PHI - 10.4 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.9 ast, .468 FG%, .711 FT%
The #2 pick from one season ago has developed into a solid player off the bench for the surprising 76ers, and it can't be a coincidence that all five players on this list come from teams ranked in the top 2 in their conference. With the compacted season we're having, deep benches are going to be necessary to keep up momentum throughout the season and the playoffs.
Honorable Mention
Thaddeus Young - PHI
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Baltimore at New England - Patriots by 11
NY Giants at San Francisco - 49ers by 5
Prediction Results
NFL: 2-2 (.500) 173-91 overall (.655)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 26-23 overall (.531)
Odds of Winning the Super Bowl
1. New England - 46.5% (+9.4)
2. San Francisco - 30.4% (+21.5)
3. NY Giants - 15.6% (+14.3)
4. Baltimore - 7.4% (+2.9)
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 29.9 pts, 7.9 reb, 7.6 ast, 2.0 stl, .563 FG%, .474 3P%, .718 FT%
The week didn't start out well for the Heat, who lost three straight games and were not looking like a great team, and it didn't help that Dwyane Wade got hurt for the second time this season, but then King James took over and started playing like the superstar he is, putting up 3 straight 30-point games while shooting over 60% from long distance and pulling Miami up to #4 in the East standings. He's been the best player for years now, and now he's basically doing it alone again, like he did for all those years in Cleveland, with similar results.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 26.5 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.1 stl, .498 FG%, .841 FT%
Other than a head-scratching loss at last-place Washington on Wednesday, this was a solid week for the two-time defending scoring champ. He was perfect from the free throw line (24-24) and put up nearly 30 points per game while keeping the Thunder in the West's top spot, but he didn't do anything spectacular enough to warrant moving him up a spot, especially since his teammate, Russell Westbrook, had his best week of the season, which hurt Durant's chances of moving up.
3. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 30.4 pts, 5.5 reb, 5.7 ast, 1.4 stl, .454 FG%, .843 FT%
The Lakers went 1-3 this week. In the three losses, Kobe averaged 32 points per game. In their lone win, against the Mavericks, he put up only 14 points. So not only did his streak of 40-point games come to an end, the Lakers nearly dropped out of the playoffs and played better without his help this week. No matter what your MVP criteria are, there's no way Kobe can keep from falling this week.
4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 20.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 5.5 ast, 1.7 stl, .452 FG%, .805 FT%
This week, Westbrook averaged 27-7-6, shot over 50% from the field and long distance, and hit nearly 90% of his free throws, by far his strongest week of the season. Last week he was barely even among my top 10 players, and I said that he was having a disappointing season, but that he might be turning a corner, and it looks like he did just that in the past 7 days, giving the Thunder the best 1-2 punch in the entire league, at least until Wade is back at full strength in Miami.
5. Dwight Howard - ORL - 20.2 pts, 16.1 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.3 blk, 1.4 stl, .575 FG%, .458 FT%
Howard was completely shut down by the defense of the New York Knicks on Monday (yes, you read that right), scoring 8 points on 3-6 shooting as his teammates took over and led the Magic to victory. Then he redeemed himself with two straight 20-20 performances against the Spurs and Lakers, which kept him from plummeting in the rankings. In fact, if Westbrook hadn't been so great this week, he might have been able to maintain his #4 spot, even after the New York debacle.
6. Kevin Love - MIN - 24.7 pts, 14.5 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.1 stl, .426 FG%, .809 FT%
Minnesota still hasn't crept into the playoff picture in the West, but if Love keeps playing like he has so far this season, it would be no surprise to find the Wolves among the top 8 teams in the conference within the next two weeks. Last night he had the highlight of the night as he hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give his team a road upset of the Los Angeles Clippers, who are currently among the top 4 seeds in the West.
7. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 23.2 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.4 stl, .491 FG%, .768 FT%
Aldridge earned this spot with his game last night in Toronto, Portland's fifth straight game on the road in 8 days, when he dominated the Raptor big men for 33 points and 23 rebounds, while still finding time to hand out 5 assists. With Brandon Roy's retirement just before the season began, Aldridge is the unquestioned leader of the Blazers, and he has taken them on his back and carried them just like he did in the second half of last season.
8. Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 25.7 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.1 ast, 1.4 stl, .412 FG%, .813 FT%
Carmelo had a very inconsistent week, sitting out one game and playing horribly in a loss to Phoenix on Wednesday, finishing 5-22 for 12 points as the Knicks continued to struggle. That game was sandwiched between two 30-point games, both of which were also losses, putting New York's losing streak at 5 games and dropping them nearly out of the current playoff picture.
9. Blake Griffin - LAC - 21.2 pts, 11.7 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.0 stl, .509 FG%, .526 FT%
The Clippers had their busiest week of the season so far, and while Griffin was pulling down rebounds like normal, his shooting was just off, especially in LA's two losses, to Utah and Minnesota. His field goal percentage has nearly matched his free throw percentage, which is not a good thing, especially since he isn't the defensive beast that Dwight Howard is, which makes up for Howard's lack of shooting skill from the stripe.
10. Andre Iguodala - PHI - 14.3 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.3 ast, 2.1 stl, .460 FG%, .662 FT%
Iguodala is the only player on this list who isn't scoring over 20 points per game, and he isn't even close to reaching that plateau, but he is a better all-around player than anyone on this list other than LeBron, Kobe, and Westbrook, and he has the 76ers at #2 in the East and looking like a real challenger to the Bulls and Heat as the best team in the East. Philly's small forward is the first player with real MVP potential in the City of Brotherly Love since Iverson left over 5 years ago.
Dropping Out
Derrick Rose - CHI - 20.8 pts, 3.5 reb, 8.7 ast, .439 FG%, .877 FT%
Chicago is still holding onto the best record in the league, and Rose is their best player, but he has sat out the past three games, and the Bulls still managed to win two of them. In the game he did play he only scored 18 points on 35% shooting, so maybe a break to get healthy could help him get back onto this list again later this season.
Pau Gasol - LAL - 16.3 pts, 9.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.3 blk, .518 FG%, .783 FT%
Gasol's numbers were down across the board this week as the Lakers took a nosedive in the standings. I'm not sure whether Kobe is trying to do too much or Gasol is doing too little, but these two need to figure out their roles if they want to see an MVP, or even more importantly, a playoff berth.
Honorable Mention
Luol Deng - CHI
Chris Bosh - MIA
Derrick Rose - CHI
Danilo Gallinari - DEN
Paul Millsap - UTA
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Ryan Anderson - ORL
Sixth Man of the Year
1. James Harden - OKC - 16.3 pts, 3.9 reb, 3.1 ast, .450 FG%, .867 FT%
Harden has continued to improve every aspect of his game during his third season as a pro, increasing his average in every category but steals so far in this season despite the fact that he is still coming off the bench. His minutes have only increased by 3 per game, so there's more to his statistical jump than just being on the court more. He will be around for a while, and right now there's no doubt that this award is his if he doesn't become a starter.
2. Al Harrington - DEN - 14.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 0.9 ast, 1.4 stl, .554 FG%, .675 FT%
Who would have thought that the Nuggets would be #2 in the West at any point this season, with so many of their players stuck playing overseas? Al Harrington is taking advantage of the extra minutes that are available by shooting far better than he ever has before, 8% better than his career best and 11% better than his career average. If he can keep it up and keep Denver in the playoff hunt, he could have a shot to beat out Harden for Sixth Man.
3. Louis Williams - PHI - 15.1 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.5 ast, .411 FG%, .859 FT%
Williams has been riding the 76ers bench for over 6 years now, and he has steadily improved over the years, until today, at 25 years old, when he is having what looks like his best season yet. When he was playing 30 minutes per game two seasons ago, he still only averaged 14 points per game, and now he is over 15 per game with only 25 minutes of court time a night. It looks like he has finally matured into an NBA player.
4. Andre Miller - DEN - 9.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 6.3 ast, 1.3 stl, .438 FG%, .775 FT%
Miller continues to be a steady veteran player who has the potential to explode once in a while, which is exactly what happened on Wednesday, when he posted 28 points and 10 assists on the 76ers, one of his former teams. He followed it up with 0 points and 5 assists against Washington on Friday, but on the balance he is a very important part of a deep Nuggets bench.
5. Evan Turner - PHI - 10.4 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.9 ast, .468 FG%, .711 FT%
The #2 pick from one season ago has developed into a solid player off the bench for the surprising 76ers, and it can't be a coincidence that all five players on this list come from teams ranked in the top 2 in their conference. With the compacted season we're having, deep benches are going to be necessary to keep up momentum throughout the season and the playoffs.
Honorable Mention
Thaddeus Young - PHI
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Baltimore at New England - Patriots by 11
NY Giants at San Francisco - 49ers by 5
Prediction Results
NFL: 2-2 (.500) 173-91 overall (.655)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 26-23 overall (.531)
Odds of Winning the Super Bowl
1. New England - 46.5% (+9.4)
2. San Francisco - 30.4% (+21.5)
3. NY Giants - 15.6% (+14.3)
4. Baltimore - 7.4% (+2.9)
Monday, January 16, 2012
College Basketball Rankings - 16 Jan
There was a whole slew of upsets this week, but unfortunately I didn't see most of them coming. As a result, five teams were dropped from the top 25, and most were replaced by teams that sprung upsets this week. There are 7 teams among my top 25 that come from the non-power conferences, and most of them are finally receiving votes in the national polls, even though I've had many of them ranked all season long. Here is my latest top 25, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (1-1) (16-3) -20.79 (6)
2. (2) Syracuse (2-0) (19-0) -19.18 (1)
3. (4) Kansas (2-0) (14-3) -18.45 (7)
4. (5) Michigan State (1-1) (15-3) -17.42 (9)
5. (9) Missouri (2-0) (16-1) -16.39 (5)
6. (7) Kentucky (2-0) (17-1) -16.17 (2)
7. (6) Duke (2-0) (15-2) -15.25 (4)
8. (8) UNLV (0-1) (16-3) -15.15 (20)
9. (11) Wisconsin (2-0) (14-5) -14.86 (29)
10. (3) North Carolina (1-1) (15-3) -14.70 (8)
11. (25) Baylor (2-0) (17-0) -14.29 (3)
12. (15) Florida (2-0) (14-4) -13.87 (14)
13. (18) Wichita State (3-0) (15-3) -13.48 (33)
14. (13) BYU (1-0) (15-4) -13.26 (38)
15. (10) Indiana (0-2) (15-3) -13.01 (13)
16. (24) New Mexico (1-0) (15-2) -12.73 (28)
17. (NR) Memphis (2-0) (12-5) -12.45 (NR)
18. (NR) Florida State (2-0) (11-6) -12.22 (NR)
19. (NR) Georgetown (1-1) (14-3) -12.02 (12)
20. (NR) West Virginia (1-1) (13-5) -11.92 (33)
21. (22) Marquette (2-0) (14-4) -11.80 (22)
22. (19) Creighton (3-0) (16-2) -11.71 (18)
23. (21) Alabama (1-1) (13-4) -11.70 (35)
24. (23) California (2-0) (15-4) -11.04 (37)
25. (NR) Middle Tennessee (2-0) (17-2) -10.78 (30)
Dropped Out
(16) Kansas State (0-2) (12-4) -10.58 (27)
(14) Saint Mary's (3-0) (17-2) -10.35 (23)
(20) Saint Louis (1-1) (14-4) -10.31 (NR)
(12) Murray State (2-0) (18-0) -10.05 (10)
(17) Iona (1-1) (14-4) -10.00 (NR)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 4
Big 12 - 3
SEC - 3
ACC - 3
MWC - 2
MVC - 2
WCC - 1
CUSA - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
Baylor finally made their move in my rankings this week after they defied my upset pick for the second time this year (BYU and Kansas State), then destroyed Oklahoma State with an offensive explosion of 106 points on Saturday. Prior to the win over the Wildcats, their most impressive win was over the Cougars, which explains why I hadn't had them ranked higher up to this point. This week they have Kansas and Missouri on the schedule, by far the two toughest teams they have faced all year.
New Mexico lost a couple of embarrassing games early in the season, but lately they have been coming together, and they can now boast that they haven't lost a game since Thanksgiving Day. The Lobos beat Saint Louis last week, then avoided a potential upset at Wyoming this week. In the coming week, they face the two ranked teams in their conference, San Diego State and UNLV, and I feel that they will probably make quite a statement against the Aztecs on Wednesday.
Memphis is used to finding themselves among the national rankings, but they have rarely been among my top 25 over the years, but this season they have not lost any game to a bad team, with all 5 losses coming to teams currently ranked in the top 25. They still haven't beaten a ranked team, and they don't have one left on the schedule, but they have beaten Belmont and they can beat Xavier next month for a quality win.
Florida State won a very difficult road game this week at Virginia Tech, but that's not the reason you're seeing them here today. On Saturday they pulled the biggest upset of the season so far, as they led by double digits for the entire second half against #3 North Carolina and ended up winning in a 33-point blowout. The Seminoles have lost more games than any other team in my rankings, but that win alone makes them a team to be feared.
Middle Tennessee found themselves in the top 25 finally after starting their conference schedule 6-0, and though they don't have any ranked teams on their schedule, they have beaten two teams from the power conferences, UCLA and Mississippi, and they have split wins with Belmont, still a conference leader even if they're not the power they were last year. They may not lose another game this year, and even if they do, it will only be once or twice.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Arkansas at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 20
(9) Michigan State at (19) Michigan - Spartans by 3
(12) Georgetown at DePaul - Hoyas by 7
Maryland at Florida State - Seminoles by 22
Wednesday
(10) Murray State at Morehead State - Racers by 6
Cincinnati at (11) Connecticut - Huskies by 11
(13) Indiana at Nebraska - Hoosiers by 5
(15) Mississippi State at Mississippi - Rebels by 2
(16) San Diego State at New Mexico - Lobos by 15
(18) Creighton at Missouri State - Bears by 2
TCU at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 25
Wichita State at Northern Iowa - Shockers by 1
Northwestern at Wisconsin - Badgers by 16
Memphis at UCF - Tigers by 1
Marshall at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 12
Thursday
Wake Forest at (4) Duke - Blue Devils by 28
(8) North Carolina at Virginia Tech - Tar Heels by 1
(17) Virginia at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 1
Pepperdine at (23) Saint Mary's - Gaels by 25
(25) Illinois at Penn State - Fighting Illini by 2
Loyola Marymount at BYU - Cougars by 21
Vanderbilt at Alabama - Crimson Tide by 12
California at Washington - Golden Bears by 2
Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 25
Saturday
(1) Syracuse at Notre Dame - Orange by 9
Alabama at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 12
(5) Missouri at (3) Baylor - Bears by 5
Florida State at (4) Duke - Blue Devils by 10
(6) Ohio State at Nebraska - Buckeyes by 13
(7) Kansas at Texas - Jayhawks by 2
Purdue at (9) Michigan State - Spartans by 15
(10) Murray State at SIU-Edwardsville - Racers by 15
(11) Connecticut at Tennessee - Volunteers by 2
Rutgers at (12) Georgetown - Hoyas by 16
LSU at (14) Florida - Gators by 17
(15) Mississippi State at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
Air Force at (16) San Diego State - Aztecs by 13
Indiana State at (18) Creighton - Bluejays by 21
(19) Michigan at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 4
New Mexico at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 10
(21) Louisville at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 5
(22) Marquette at Providence - Golden Eagles by 3
(23) Saint Mary's at Santa Clara - Gaels by 11
(24) Harvard at Dartmouth - Crimson by 9
BYU at Pepperdine - Cougars by 14
Southern Illinois at Wichita State - Shockers by 25
California at Washington State - Golden Bears by 3
Middle Tennessee State at Southern Alabama - Blue Raiders by 5
SMU at Memphis - Tigers by 23
Cincinnati at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 13
Sunday
Penn State at (13) Indiana - Hoosiers by 22
Virginia Tech at (17) Virginia - Cavaliers by 10
Wisconsin at (25) Illinois - Fighting Illini by 1
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 43-15 (.741) 248-44 overall (.849)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 19-8 overall (.704)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (1-1) (16-3) -20.79 (6)
2. (2) Syracuse (2-0) (19-0) -19.18 (1)
3. (4) Kansas (2-0) (14-3) -18.45 (7)
4. (5) Michigan State (1-1) (15-3) -17.42 (9)
5. (9) Missouri (2-0) (16-1) -16.39 (5)
6. (7) Kentucky (2-0) (17-1) -16.17 (2)
7. (6) Duke (2-0) (15-2) -15.25 (4)
8. (8) UNLV (0-1) (16-3) -15.15 (20)
9. (11) Wisconsin (2-0) (14-5) -14.86 (29)
10. (3) North Carolina (1-1) (15-3) -14.70 (8)
11. (25) Baylor (2-0) (17-0) -14.29 (3)
12. (15) Florida (2-0) (14-4) -13.87 (14)
13. (18) Wichita State (3-0) (15-3) -13.48 (33)
14. (13) BYU (1-0) (15-4) -13.26 (38)
15. (10) Indiana (0-2) (15-3) -13.01 (13)
16. (24) New Mexico (1-0) (15-2) -12.73 (28)
17. (NR) Memphis (2-0) (12-5) -12.45 (NR)
18. (NR) Florida State (2-0) (11-6) -12.22 (NR)
19. (NR) Georgetown (1-1) (14-3) -12.02 (12)
20. (NR) West Virginia (1-1) (13-5) -11.92 (33)
21. (22) Marquette (2-0) (14-4) -11.80 (22)
22. (19) Creighton (3-0) (16-2) -11.71 (18)
23. (21) Alabama (1-1) (13-4) -11.70 (35)
24. (23) California (2-0) (15-4) -11.04 (37)
25. (NR) Middle Tennessee (2-0) (17-2) -10.78 (30)
Dropped Out
(16) Kansas State (0-2) (12-4) -10.58 (27)
(14) Saint Mary's (3-0) (17-2) -10.35 (23)
(20) Saint Louis (1-1) (14-4) -10.31 (NR)
(12) Murray State (2-0) (18-0) -10.05 (10)
(17) Iona (1-1) (14-4) -10.00 (NR)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 4
Big 12 - 3
SEC - 3
ACC - 3
MWC - 2
MVC - 2
WCC - 1
CUSA - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
Baylor finally made their move in my rankings this week after they defied my upset pick for the second time this year (BYU and Kansas State), then destroyed Oklahoma State with an offensive explosion of 106 points on Saturday. Prior to the win over the Wildcats, their most impressive win was over the Cougars, which explains why I hadn't had them ranked higher up to this point. This week they have Kansas and Missouri on the schedule, by far the two toughest teams they have faced all year.
New Mexico lost a couple of embarrassing games early in the season, but lately they have been coming together, and they can now boast that they haven't lost a game since Thanksgiving Day. The Lobos beat Saint Louis last week, then avoided a potential upset at Wyoming this week. In the coming week, they face the two ranked teams in their conference, San Diego State and UNLV, and I feel that they will probably make quite a statement against the Aztecs on Wednesday.
Memphis is used to finding themselves among the national rankings, but they have rarely been among my top 25 over the years, but this season they have not lost any game to a bad team, with all 5 losses coming to teams currently ranked in the top 25. They still haven't beaten a ranked team, and they don't have one left on the schedule, but they have beaten Belmont and they can beat Xavier next month for a quality win.
Florida State won a very difficult road game this week at Virginia Tech, but that's not the reason you're seeing them here today. On Saturday they pulled the biggest upset of the season so far, as they led by double digits for the entire second half against #3 North Carolina and ended up winning in a 33-point blowout. The Seminoles have lost more games than any other team in my rankings, but that win alone makes them a team to be feared.
Middle Tennessee found themselves in the top 25 finally after starting their conference schedule 6-0, and though they don't have any ranked teams on their schedule, they have beaten two teams from the power conferences, UCLA and Mississippi, and they have split wins with Belmont, still a conference leader even if they're not the power they were last year. They may not lose another game this year, and even if they do, it will only be once or twice.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Arkansas at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 20
(9) Michigan State at (19) Michigan - Spartans by 3
(12) Georgetown at DePaul - Hoyas by 7
Maryland at Florida State - Seminoles by 22
Wednesday
(10) Murray State at Morehead State - Racers by 6
Cincinnati at (11) Connecticut - Huskies by 11
(13) Indiana at Nebraska - Hoosiers by 5
(15) Mississippi State at Mississippi - Rebels by 2
(16) San Diego State at New Mexico - Lobos by 15
(18) Creighton at Missouri State - Bears by 2
TCU at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 25
Wichita State at Northern Iowa - Shockers by 1
Northwestern at Wisconsin - Badgers by 16
Memphis at UCF - Tigers by 1
Marshall at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 12
Thursday
Wake Forest at (4) Duke - Blue Devils by 28
(8) North Carolina at Virginia Tech - Tar Heels by 1
(17) Virginia at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 1
Pepperdine at (23) Saint Mary's - Gaels by 25
(25) Illinois at Penn State - Fighting Illini by 2
Loyola Marymount at BYU - Cougars by 21
Vanderbilt at Alabama - Crimson Tide by 12
California at Washington - Golden Bears by 2
Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 25
Saturday
(1) Syracuse at Notre Dame - Orange by 9
Alabama at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 12
(5) Missouri at (3) Baylor - Bears by 5
Florida State at (4) Duke - Blue Devils by 10
(6) Ohio State at Nebraska - Buckeyes by 13
(7) Kansas at Texas - Jayhawks by 2
Purdue at (9) Michigan State - Spartans by 15
(10) Murray State at SIU-Edwardsville - Racers by 15
(11) Connecticut at Tennessee - Volunteers by 2
Rutgers at (12) Georgetown - Hoyas by 16
LSU at (14) Florida - Gators by 17
(15) Mississippi State at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
Air Force at (16) San Diego State - Aztecs by 13
Indiana State at (18) Creighton - Bluejays by 21
(19) Michigan at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 4
New Mexico at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 10
(21) Louisville at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 5
(22) Marquette at Providence - Golden Eagles by 3
(23) Saint Mary's at Santa Clara - Gaels by 11
(24) Harvard at Dartmouth - Crimson by 9
BYU at Pepperdine - Cougars by 14
Southern Illinois at Wichita State - Shockers by 25
California at Washington State - Golden Bears by 3
Middle Tennessee State at Southern Alabama - Blue Raiders by 5
SMU at Memphis - Tigers by 23
Cincinnati at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 13
Sunday
Penn State at (13) Indiana - Hoosiers by 22
Virginia Tech at (17) Virginia - Cavaliers by 10
Wisconsin at (25) Illinois - Fighting Illini by 1
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 43-15 (.741) 248-44 overall (.849)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 19-8 overall (.704)
Sunday, January 15, 2012
NBA Rankings - 15 Jan
Now that three weeks of this shortened season are in the books, it is finally time to reveal my first NBA rankings of the 2011-2012 NBA season. Just like with all of my other rankings, these are based strictly on statistical facts, like home court advantage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule. Just for reference, I am also comparing mine to the statistical rankings of John Hollinger from ESPN. You will find his current rankings in parentheses right after each team's record and rating. Gaps between groups of teams represent different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (Holl)
1. Philadelphia (9-3) -5.42 (1)
2. Chicago (12-2) -3.71 (2)
3. Miami (8-4) -0.60 (3)
4. Atlanta (9-4) -0.19 (4)
5. Dallas (8-5) 0.11 (8)
6. Oklahoma City (11-2) 0.53 (5)
7. LA Clippers (6-3) 0.73 (9)
8. San Antonio (8-4) 0.96 (10)
9. Indiana (9-3) 1.20 (13)
10. Denver (8-4) 1.86 (6)
11. Orlando (8-3) 2.10 (12)
12. Portland (7-5) 2.57 (7)
13. LA Lakers (9-5) 3.49 (11)
14. Minnesota (4-8) 4.06 (14)
15. Houston (5-7) 5.39 (16)
16. Cleveland (5-6) 5.57 (17)
17. Memphis (5-6) 6.11 (15)
18. Utah (7-4) 7.33 (18)
19. New York (6-6) 7.92 (20)
20. Boston (4-7) 8.94 (22)
21. Phoenix (4-7) 9.51 (19)
22. Milwaukee (4-7) 9.81 (23)
23. Toronto (4-9) 10.39 (25)
24. New Orleans (3-9) 10.45 (24)
25. New Jersey (3-10) 10.61 (27)
26. Detroit (3-9) 11.84 (26)
27. Golden State (3-8) 11.97 (21)
28. Sacramento (4-9) 14.95 (28)
29. Washington (1-11) 15.27 (30)
30. Charlotte (3-10) 17.02 (29)
Only five teams are ranked more than 2 spots in my rankings from their spot in Hollinger's rankings: Dallas, Indiana, Denver, Portland, and Golden State. The discrepancy with these teams is most likely due to momentum, which has helped Dallas immensely since their horrible start, and has hurt Golden State and Portland, who have been on losing streaks lately after starting the season somewhat strongly.
Philadelphia is not a team you would normally think of as a powerful team, especially since they made the playoffs last year for the first time in a while, and they were eliminated in the first round, but this season they have been tearing up their competition, leading the league with a +15.2 point differential, meaning they outscore their opponents by an average of 101-86. They are #3 in scoring and #2 in scoring defense so far, and all three of their losses have been by single digits on the road to teams in playoff contention. The 76ers are for real.
The #2 team in point differential is Chicago, which has been average on offense but incredible on defense this season, a category in which they currently lead the league. They have the league's best record, just like last season, and defending MVP Derrick Rose hasn't even been playing as well as he did last year, so these Bulls could turn out to be this season's champions now that they have gained some playoff experience.
Minnesota is the best team with a losing record so far this season, and although their 4-8 mark may look like just another season for the Wolves, they are actually better than their record shows. Three of their losses were against the very best teams and came down to the final possession, and they opened up the new year with back-to-back home wins over the Mavericks and Spurs. Add to that a legitimate MVP candidate in Kevin Love, and you're looking at a team that could surprise everybody and make the playoffs for the first time since that other Kevin left town.
Charlotte may not own the worst record in the league, but they have been the least competitive team so far this season. Among their 10 losses are 8 by double digits, including four by more than 20 points and two by 30 or more. At least those losses came to pretty good teams, but even then, we are talking about what is supposed to be a professional basketball team, and I'm not sure they could beat most of the top 25 college teams right now, even in a 40-minute game.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Golden State at Detroit - Pistons by 7
Utah at Denver - Nuggets by 12
Phoenix at San Antonio - Spurs by 14
Monday
Orlando at New York - Magic by 1
Chicago at Memphis - Bulls by 5
Milwaukee at Philadelphia - 76ers by 20
Houston at Washington - Rockets by 5
Cleveland at Charlotte - Cavaliers by 6
Portland at New Orleans - Trail Blazers by 3
New Jersey at LA Clippers - Clippers by 15
Toronto at Atlanta - Hawks by 16
Oklahoma City at Boston - Thunder by 3
Sacramento at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 16
Dallas at LA Lakers - Lakers by 2
Tuesday
Golden State at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 9
Charlotte at Orlando - Magic by 20
San Antonio at Miami - Heat by 7
Phoenix at Chicago - Bulls by 16
Detroit at Houston - Rockets by 9
Denver at Milwaukee - Nuggets by 5
LA Clippers at Utah - Jazz by 1
Wednesday
San Antonio at Orlando - Magic by 4
Denver at Philadelphia - 76ers by 14
Oklahoma City at Washington - Thunder by 10
Phoenix at New York - Knicks by 9
Toronto at Boston - Celtics by 7
Golden State at New Jersey - Nets by 8
Portland at Atlanta - Hawks by 8
Memphis at New Orleans - Hornets by 1
Detroit at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 15
Indiana at Sacramento - Pacers by 9
Dallas at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2
Thursday
New Orleans at Houston - Rockets by 12
LA Lakers at Miami - Heat by 9
Dallas at Utah - Mavericks by 1
Friday
Atlanta at Philadelphia - 76ers by 10
Denver at Washington - Nuggets by 8
Portland at Toronto - Trail Blazers by 3
Phoenix at Boston - Celtics by 6
Chicago at Cleveland - Bulls by 4
Memphis at Detroit - Grizzlies by 1
Milwaukee at New York - Knicks by 7
LA Lakers at Orlando - Magic by 8
Sacramento at San Antonio - Spurs by 19
Indiana at Golden State - Pacers by 6
Minnesota at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Saturday
Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 11
Portland at Detroit - Trail Blazers by 4
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 2
Denver at New York - Nuggets by 1
Dallas at New Orleans - Mavericks by 5
Charlotte at Chicago - Bulls by 24
San Antonio at Houston - Rockets by 3
Oklahoma City at New Jersey - Thunder by 5
Sacramento at Memphis - Grizzlies by 14
Minnesota at Utah - Jazz by 4
TW. Team (Record) Rating (Holl)
1. Philadelphia (9-3) -5.42 (1)
2. Chicago (12-2) -3.71 (2)
3. Miami (8-4) -0.60 (3)
4. Atlanta (9-4) -0.19 (4)
5. Dallas (8-5) 0.11 (8)
6. Oklahoma City (11-2) 0.53 (5)
7. LA Clippers (6-3) 0.73 (9)
8. San Antonio (8-4) 0.96 (10)
9. Indiana (9-3) 1.20 (13)
10. Denver (8-4) 1.86 (6)
11. Orlando (8-3) 2.10 (12)
12. Portland (7-5) 2.57 (7)
13. LA Lakers (9-5) 3.49 (11)
14. Minnesota (4-8) 4.06 (14)
15. Houston (5-7) 5.39 (16)
16. Cleveland (5-6) 5.57 (17)
17. Memphis (5-6) 6.11 (15)
18. Utah (7-4) 7.33 (18)
19. New York (6-6) 7.92 (20)
20. Boston (4-7) 8.94 (22)
21. Phoenix (4-7) 9.51 (19)
22. Milwaukee (4-7) 9.81 (23)
23. Toronto (4-9) 10.39 (25)
24. New Orleans (3-9) 10.45 (24)
25. New Jersey (3-10) 10.61 (27)
26. Detroit (3-9) 11.84 (26)
27. Golden State (3-8) 11.97 (21)
28. Sacramento (4-9) 14.95 (28)
29. Washington (1-11) 15.27 (30)
30. Charlotte (3-10) 17.02 (29)
Only five teams are ranked more than 2 spots in my rankings from their spot in Hollinger's rankings: Dallas, Indiana, Denver, Portland, and Golden State. The discrepancy with these teams is most likely due to momentum, which has helped Dallas immensely since their horrible start, and has hurt Golden State and Portland, who have been on losing streaks lately after starting the season somewhat strongly.
Philadelphia is not a team you would normally think of as a powerful team, especially since they made the playoffs last year for the first time in a while, and they were eliminated in the first round, but this season they have been tearing up their competition, leading the league with a +15.2 point differential, meaning they outscore their opponents by an average of 101-86. They are #3 in scoring and #2 in scoring defense so far, and all three of their losses have been by single digits on the road to teams in playoff contention. The 76ers are for real.
The #2 team in point differential is Chicago, which has been average on offense but incredible on defense this season, a category in which they currently lead the league. They have the league's best record, just like last season, and defending MVP Derrick Rose hasn't even been playing as well as he did last year, so these Bulls could turn out to be this season's champions now that they have gained some playoff experience.
Minnesota is the best team with a losing record so far this season, and although their 4-8 mark may look like just another season for the Wolves, they are actually better than their record shows. Three of their losses were against the very best teams and came down to the final possession, and they opened up the new year with back-to-back home wins over the Mavericks and Spurs. Add to that a legitimate MVP candidate in Kevin Love, and you're looking at a team that could surprise everybody and make the playoffs for the first time since that other Kevin left town.
Charlotte may not own the worst record in the league, but they have been the least competitive team so far this season. Among their 10 losses are 8 by double digits, including four by more than 20 points and two by 30 or more. At least those losses came to pretty good teams, but even then, we are talking about what is supposed to be a professional basketball team, and I'm not sure they could beat most of the top 25 college teams right now, even in a 40-minute game.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Golden State at Detroit - Pistons by 7
Utah at Denver - Nuggets by 12
Phoenix at San Antonio - Spurs by 14
Monday
Orlando at New York - Magic by 1
Chicago at Memphis - Bulls by 5
Milwaukee at Philadelphia - 76ers by 20
Houston at Washington - Rockets by 5
Cleveland at Charlotte - Cavaliers by 6
Portland at New Orleans - Trail Blazers by 3
New Jersey at LA Clippers - Clippers by 15
Toronto at Atlanta - Hawks by 16
Oklahoma City at Boston - Thunder by 3
Sacramento at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 16
Dallas at LA Lakers - Lakers by 2
Tuesday
Golden State at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 9
Charlotte at Orlando - Magic by 20
San Antonio at Miami - Heat by 7
Phoenix at Chicago - Bulls by 16
Detroit at Houston - Rockets by 9
Denver at Milwaukee - Nuggets by 5
LA Clippers at Utah - Jazz by 1
Wednesday
San Antonio at Orlando - Magic by 4
Denver at Philadelphia - 76ers by 14
Oklahoma City at Washington - Thunder by 10
Phoenix at New York - Knicks by 9
Toronto at Boston - Celtics by 7
Golden State at New Jersey - Nets by 8
Portland at Atlanta - Hawks by 8
Memphis at New Orleans - Hornets by 1
Detroit at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 15
Indiana at Sacramento - Pacers by 9
Dallas at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2
Thursday
New Orleans at Houston - Rockets by 12
LA Lakers at Miami - Heat by 9
Dallas at Utah - Mavericks by 1
Friday
Atlanta at Philadelphia - 76ers by 10
Denver at Washington - Nuggets by 8
Portland at Toronto - Trail Blazers by 3
Phoenix at Boston - Celtics by 6
Chicago at Cleveland - Bulls by 4
Memphis at Detroit - Grizzlies by 1
Milwaukee at New York - Knicks by 7
LA Lakers at Orlando - Magic by 8
Sacramento at San Antonio - Spurs by 19
Indiana at Golden State - Pacers by 6
Minnesota at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Saturday
Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 11
Portland at Detroit - Trail Blazers by 4
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 2
Denver at New York - Nuggets by 1
Dallas at New Orleans - Mavericks by 5
Charlotte at Chicago - Bulls by 24
San Antonio at Houston - Rockets by 3
Oklahoma City at New Jersey - Thunder by 5
Sacramento at Memphis - Grizzlies by 14
Minnesota at Utah - Jazz by 4
Saturday, January 14, 2012
NBA MVP Rankings - 14 Jan
The NBA season has been up and running now for nearly 3 weeks, and there has already been a lot of excitement. The Clippers are rising, the Heat are struggling, and there a couple of new faces among the MVP favorites in addition to many of the old standbys. This season I have finally discovered a method to reward players whose teams will reach and advance in the postseason and punishes them for games missed using pure statistical methods rather than my own opinions. Here are my initial MVP rankings, along with my first Rookie of the Year rankings for the 2011-2012 season.
Most Valuable Player
1. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 31.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 5.5 ast, .461 FG%, .832 FT%
Just when you thought that Kobe was past his prime, he came out on fire to prove everybody wrong. LeBron has been the best player in the NBA for years, but Kobe has his team winning while posting gaudy numbers. His scoring average is the highest he's had in 5 years, and at this point the Thunder appear to be the only obstacle preventing them from making it to the Finals yet again. Oh, and Kobe has scored at least 40 in 3 straight games. He could become the oldest MVP since Karl Malone back in 1999.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 25.7 pts, 7.2 reb, 3.6 ast, .491 FG%, .404 3P%
Durant may not be leading the league in scoring like he has the past two seasons, but he has improved his numbers in almost every other category, and he has the Thunder holding onto the best record in the West so far. He has recorded double-doubles in three straight games, something he has never been known for, and Oklahoma City is on a 5-game winning streak for the second time this season.
3. LeBron James - MIA - 29.5 pts, 8.2 reb, 7.4 ast, 2.0 stl, .578 FG%
James has been incredible so far in this young season, improving in every category but free throw shooting while playing without Dwyane Wade on quite a few occasions so far. Perhaps the most impressive number on his stat line above is his field goal percentage, which is nearly 7% over his career high and currently ranks #4 in the entire league, tops among all non-centers.
4. Dwight Howard - ORL - 20.5 pts, 15.2 reb, 2.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .586 FG%
Despite all the trade rumors swirling around him, Howard continues to dominate in the paint, where he is currently looking at a new career-high in rebounding while ranking third in the league in field goal percentage and fifth in blocked shots. He also broke Wilt Chamberlain's 50-year-old record for free throw attempts in a game when he shot 39 against Golden State last night, and although he only made 21, it's still a record that could stand for a long time.
5. Derrick Rose - CHI - 21.1 pts, 3.4 reb, 8.5 ast, .448 FG%, .873 FT%
The defending MVP has been hampered by a toe injury, which could explain why he's not playing at the same level he did last season as he led the Bulls to the league's best record in the regular season. Although he's not playing at the level we're accustomed to, he's still got Chicago at the top of the standings, so expect to see him rise even higher once he's healthy.
6. Kevin Love - MIN - 24.5 pts, 14.7 reb, 1.7 ast, .429 FG%, .794 FT%
Love is scoring even more this year than last year, when he was among the most improved players in the league and led all players in rebounding, but he has been taking a lot more shots to do it. Minnesota finished last season as the worst team in the league, so the fact that he has led them to 4 wins already shows a lot of improvement, but he won't stay in contention for the MVP without getting them into the playoffs.
7. Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 25.5 pts, 6.2 reb, 4.3 ast, .439 FG%, .822 FT%
Anthony continues his strong play for the Knicks, and he has taken over as the clear top player in New York while Amare struggles with injuries. Unfortunately, Anthony sprained his ankle in New York's loss to Memphis on Thursday, and he will most likely sit out tonight's game against Oklahoma City, a game where the Knicks really need to have their star.
8. Blake Griffin - LAC - 23.3 pts, 10.8 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.1 stl, .531 FG%
Last year's runaway Rookie of the Year is playing at about the same level that won him the award and tons of fans last season, but the difference this year is that the Clippers have a real point guard to get Griffin the ball, which has them looking like a playoff contender for the first time in years. If he can get his free throw shooting up a bit and grab a few more boards, he has a real chance at being in the MVP running at the end of just his second season.
9. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 18.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.6 stl, .776 FT%
Westbrook has not been as dominant from the point guard position as he was last season, with his assists dropping from 8 to 5 per game this season, he is still the man getting the ball to the best player on the best team in the West. His scoring and shooting percentage have been increasing recently, so he may finally be getting used to being on the court again.
10. Pau Gasol - LAL - 16.6 pts, 9.7 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.5 blk, .553 FG%
Gasol does not look as good as he did last year, especially early in the season, where he was my MVP choice for the first two months of the season before he let off the gas down the stretch and disappeared in the playoffs. This season Andrew Bynum is looking like the #2 center in the league, and he may be replacing Gasol as the Lakers best big man before very long.
Honorable Mention
LaMarcus Aldridge - POR
Luol Deng - CHI
James Harden - OKC
Ryan Anderson - ORL
Andre Iguodala - PHI
Josh Smith - ATL
Danilo Gallinari - DEN
Rookie of the Year
1. Kyrie Irving - CLE - 17.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 5.1 ast, .473 FG%, .892 FT%
This year's Rookie of the Year field is a lot more open than last year, but there is no doubt that the best youngster so far has been the #1 pick from Duke. He has scored at least 20 points in 4 straight games, and even though the Cavaliers lost three of those, they are currently in position for the #8 seed in the playoffs, which is much better than last year, when they were very close to setting a new record for futility.
2. MarShon Brooks - NJN - 14.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.0 ast, .462 FG%, .765 FT%
Brooks was the #25 pick in the draft out of Providence, but he has played so well lately that he has cracked the starting lineup in New Jersey just two weeks into his rookie season. He reached 20 points for the third time this season in last night's victory over Phoenix, and it doesn't appear to be a fluke. He should be in the picture all season long.
3. Ricky Rubio - MIN - 10.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.7 stl, .421 3P%
Rubio has been as good as advertised in his first NBA season, which comes two full years after he was drafted #5 by Minnesota. His scoring has been very consistent, between 10 and 13 for 6 straight games, and he's already had 4 double-digit assist games, which has him ranked #8 in the league in assist average already.
4. Brandon Knight - DET - 12.3 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.8 ast, .454 FG%, .875 FT%
The second point guard taken in the draft last season becomes the third-best of his class so far because of Rubio finally getting into the league, but Knight has been a legitimately solid player so far, putting up double-figure points in 6 straight games, although his assist numbers have been pretty lousy for a point guard, and can't be helped by the anemic Pistons offense.
5. Kemba Walker - CHA - 10.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.8 ast, .377 FG%, .735 FT%
Yet another guard picked in the top ten makes my early-season ROY rankings, but Walker has not been a very consistent player so far this season, shooting worse from the field than almost anyone else in the league, but last night he went 6-8 against Detroit. Now we'll have to see if it was just a fluke or a sign that he's getting comfortable.
Honorable Mention
Markieff Morris - PHX
Check back tomorrow to see my first NBA team rankings and predictions of the season.
Most Valuable Player
1. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 31.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 5.5 ast, .461 FG%, .832 FT%
Just when you thought that Kobe was past his prime, he came out on fire to prove everybody wrong. LeBron has been the best player in the NBA for years, but Kobe has his team winning while posting gaudy numbers. His scoring average is the highest he's had in 5 years, and at this point the Thunder appear to be the only obstacle preventing them from making it to the Finals yet again. Oh, and Kobe has scored at least 40 in 3 straight games. He could become the oldest MVP since Karl Malone back in 1999.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 25.7 pts, 7.2 reb, 3.6 ast, .491 FG%, .404 3P%
Durant may not be leading the league in scoring like he has the past two seasons, but he has improved his numbers in almost every other category, and he has the Thunder holding onto the best record in the West so far. He has recorded double-doubles in three straight games, something he has never been known for, and Oklahoma City is on a 5-game winning streak for the second time this season.
3. LeBron James - MIA - 29.5 pts, 8.2 reb, 7.4 ast, 2.0 stl, .578 FG%
James has been incredible so far in this young season, improving in every category but free throw shooting while playing without Dwyane Wade on quite a few occasions so far. Perhaps the most impressive number on his stat line above is his field goal percentage, which is nearly 7% over his career high and currently ranks #4 in the entire league, tops among all non-centers.
4. Dwight Howard - ORL - 20.5 pts, 15.2 reb, 2.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .586 FG%
Despite all the trade rumors swirling around him, Howard continues to dominate in the paint, where he is currently looking at a new career-high in rebounding while ranking third in the league in field goal percentage and fifth in blocked shots. He also broke Wilt Chamberlain's 50-year-old record for free throw attempts in a game when he shot 39 against Golden State last night, and although he only made 21, it's still a record that could stand for a long time.
5. Derrick Rose - CHI - 21.1 pts, 3.4 reb, 8.5 ast, .448 FG%, .873 FT%
The defending MVP has been hampered by a toe injury, which could explain why he's not playing at the same level he did last season as he led the Bulls to the league's best record in the regular season. Although he's not playing at the level we're accustomed to, he's still got Chicago at the top of the standings, so expect to see him rise even higher once he's healthy.
6. Kevin Love - MIN - 24.5 pts, 14.7 reb, 1.7 ast, .429 FG%, .794 FT%
Love is scoring even more this year than last year, when he was among the most improved players in the league and led all players in rebounding, but he has been taking a lot more shots to do it. Minnesota finished last season as the worst team in the league, so the fact that he has led them to 4 wins already shows a lot of improvement, but he won't stay in contention for the MVP without getting them into the playoffs.
7. Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 25.5 pts, 6.2 reb, 4.3 ast, .439 FG%, .822 FT%
Anthony continues his strong play for the Knicks, and he has taken over as the clear top player in New York while Amare struggles with injuries. Unfortunately, Anthony sprained his ankle in New York's loss to Memphis on Thursday, and he will most likely sit out tonight's game against Oklahoma City, a game where the Knicks really need to have their star.
8. Blake Griffin - LAC - 23.3 pts, 10.8 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.1 stl, .531 FG%
Last year's runaway Rookie of the Year is playing at about the same level that won him the award and tons of fans last season, but the difference this year is that the Clippers have a real point guard to get Griffin the ball, which has them looking like a playoff contender for the first time in years. If he can get his free throw shooting up a bit and grab a few more boards, he has a real chance at being in the MVP running at the end of just his second season.
9. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 18.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.6 stl, .776 FT%
Westbrook has not been as dominant from the point guard position as he was last season, with his assists dropping from 8 to 5 per game this season, he is still the man getting the ball to the best player on the best team in the West. His scoring and shooting percentage have been increasing recently, so he may finally be getting used to being on the court again.
10. Pau Gasol - LAL - 16.6 pts, 9.7 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.5 blk, .553 FG%
Gasol does not look as good as he did last year, especially early in the season, where he was my MVP choice for the first two months of the season before he let off the gas down the stretch and disappeared in the playoffs. This season Andrew Bynum is looking like the #2 center in the league, and he may be replacing Gasol as the Lakers best big man before very long.
Honorable Mention
LaMarcus Aldridge - POR
Luol Deng - CHI
James Harden - OKC
Ryan Anderson - ORL
Andre Iguodala - PHI
Josh Smith - ATL
Danilo Gallinari - DEN
Rookie of the Year
1. Kyrie Irving - CLE - 17.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 5.1 ast, .473 FG%, .892 FT%
This year's Rookie of the Year field is a lot more open than last year, but there is no doubt that the best youngster so far has been the #1 pick from Duke. He has scored at least 20 points in 4 straight games, and even though the Cavaliers lost three of those, they are currently in position for the #8 seed in the playoffs, which is much better than last year, when they were very close to setting a new record for futility.
2. MarShon Brooks - NJN - 14.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.0 ast, .462 FG%, .765 FT%
Brooks was the #25 pick in the draft out of Providence, but he has played so well lately that he has cracked the starting lineup in New Jersey just two weeks into his rookie season. He reached 20 points for the third time this season in last night's victory over Phoenix, and it doesn't appear to be a fluke. He should be in the picture all season long.
3. Ricky Rubio - MIN - 10.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.7 stl, .421 3P%
Rubio has been as good as advertised in his first NBA season, which comes two full years after he was drafted #5 by Minnesota. His scoring has been very consistent, between 10 and 13 for 6 straight games, and he's already had 4 double-digit assist games, which has him ranked #8 in the league in assist average already.
4. Brandon Knight - DET - 12.3 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.8 ast, .454 FG%, .875 FT%
The second point guard taken in the draft last season becomes the third-best of his class so far because of Rubio finally getting into the league, but Knight has been a legitimately solid player so far, putting up double-figure points in 6 straight games, although his assist numbers have been pretty lousy for a point guard, and can't be helped by the anemic Pistons offense.
5. Kemba Walker - CHA - 10.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.8 ast, .377 FG%, .735 FT%
Yet another guard picked in the top ten makes my early-season ROY rankings, but Walker has not been a very consistent player so far this season, shooting worse from the field than almost anyone else in the league, but last night he went 6-8 against Detroit. Now we'll have to see if it was just a fluke or a sign that he's getting comfortable.
Honorable Mention
Markieff Morris - PHX
Check back tomorrow to see my first NBA team rankings and predictions of the season.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Updated NFL Rankings and Playoff Odds
All four home teams won on wild card weekend, despite the fact that both #4 seeds were underdogs, especially the Denver Broncos, who were playing a team with 4 more regular season wins and a quarterback who has been to 3 Super Bowls in the last 7 years. The #3 seeds both won convincingly and increased their odds of advancing, although one has much better odds than the other. Here are the updated rankings of each team that made the playoffs this year, with gaps where non-playoff teams appear in the rankings. Eliminated teams are in italics.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (14-3) -13.50 (1)
2. Green Bay (15-1) -10.37 (2)
3. New England (13-3) -9.82 (3)
5. San Francisco (13-3) -7.85 (4)
6. Detroit (10-7) -5.95 (6)
7. NY Giants (10-7) -4.11 (10)
8. Baltimore (12-4) -3.85 (8)
9. Pittsburgh (12-5) -3.21 (7)
10. Houston (11-6) -2.86 (12)
13. Atlanta (10-7) -1.82 (9)
20. Cincinnati (9-8) 1.85 (18)
28. Denver (9-8) 6.26 (28)
Top 5 Teams Sitting at Home
4. Philadelphia
6. Detroit
9. Pittsburgh
11. Seattle
12. San Diego
Odds of Making the Conference Championship
1. New England - 100.0% (+16.9)
2. Green Bay - 77.5% (-2.2)
3. Baltimore - 62.7% (-4.3)
4. New Orleans - 55.8% (+12.5)
5. San Francisco - 44.2% (-7.5)
6. Houston - 37.3% (+15.1)
7. NY Giants - 22.5% (+12.4)
8. Denver - 0.0% (-0.5)
New England's odds increased the most this week because of the Steelers upset loss in Denver, leaving the best team in the AFC with one that shouldn't even be in the playoffs. New Orleans played the toughest first round opponent of any of the favorites, but still managed to win convincingly, making a showdown with Green Bay seem even more likely. Houston and New York increased their odds by winning close games, and Denver's odds disappeared despite their win, because Houston's win means that the Broncos must face New England next, a team they will not beat.
Odds of Making the Super Bowl
1. New England - 77.7% (+13.9)
2. Green Bay - 45.1% (-3.6)
3. New Orleans - 31.9% (+7.8)
4. San Francisco - 18.3% (-3.1)
5. Baltimore - 14.6% (-6.1)
6. Houston - 7.7% (+1.6)
Odds of Winning the Super Bowl
1. New England - 37.1% (+6.6)
2. Green Bay - 25.0% (-3.7)
3. New Orleans - 20.5% (+4.5)
4. San Francisco - 8.9% (-2.3)
5. Baltimore - 4.5% (-2.3)
Predictions
New Orleans at San Francisco - Saints by 2
Denver at New England - Patriots by 20
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 5
NY Giants at Green Bay - Packers by 10
Prediction Results
NFL: 3-1 (.750) 171-89 overall (.658)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 26-22 overall (.542)
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (14-3) -13.50 (1)
2. Green Bay (15-1) -10.37 (2)
3. New England (13-3) -9.82 (3)
5. San Francisco (13-3) -7.85 (4)
6. Detroit (10-7) -5.95 (6)
7. NY Giants (10-7) -4.11 (10)
8. Baltimore (12-4) -3.85 (8)
9. Pittsburgh (12-5) -3.21 (7)
10. Houston (11-6) -2.86 (12)
13. Atlanta (10-7) -1.82 (9)
20. Cincinnati (9-8) 1.85 (18)
28. Denver (9-8) 6.26 (28)
Top 5 Teams Sitting at Home
4. Philadelphia
6. Detroit
9. Pittsburgh
11. Seattle
12. San Diego
Odds of Making the Conference Championship
1. New England - 100.0% (+16.9)
2. Green Bay - 77.5% (-2.2)
3. Baltimore - 62.7% (-4.3)
4. New Orleans - 55.8% (+12.5)
5. San Francisco - 44.2% (-7.5)
6. Houston - 37.3% (+15.1)
7. NY Giants - 22.5% (+12.4)
8. Denver - 0.0% (-0.5)
New England's odds increased the most this week because of the Steelers upset loss in Denver, leaving the best team in the AFC with one that shouldn't even be in the playoffs. New Orleans played the toughest first round opponent of any of the favorites, but still managed to win convincingly, making a showdown with Green Bay seem even more likely. Houston and New York increased their odds by winning close games, and Denver's odds disappeared despite their win, because Houston's win means that the Broncos must face New England next, a team they will not beat.
Odds of Making the Super Bowl
1. New England - 77.7% (+13.9)
2. Green Bay - 45.1% (-3.6)
3. New Orleans - 31.9% (+7.8)
4. San Francisco - 18.3% (-3.1)
5. Baltimore - 14.6% (-6.1)
6. Houston - 7.7% (+1.6)
Odds of Winning the Super Bowl
1. New England - 37.1% (+6.6)
2. Green Bay - 25.0% (-3.7)
3. New Orleans - 20.5% (+4.5)
4. San Francisco - 8.9% (-2.3)
5. Baltimore - 4.5% (-2.3)
Predictions
New Orleans at San Francisco - Saints by 2
Denver at New England - Patriots by 20
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 5
NY Giants at Green Bay - Packers by 10
Prediction Results
NFL: 3-1 (.750) 171-89 overall (.658)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 26-22 overall (.542)
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
College Football Rankings - Final
The season has ended, and with Alabama's huge upset of LSU, no team has finished the season undefeated. Meanwhile, there are still 5 teams that lost only once this season. Because there is no playoff to crown a definitive champion, the best way to determine which team is best is by ranking them statistically based on performance and strength of schedule, which is exactly what I do. Are you ready to see who this year's national champion is? Here is my final top 25 of the season, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (ESPN)
1. (3) Alabama (12-1) -35.19 (1)
2. (1) LSU (13-1) -32.71 (2)
3. (2) Oklahoma State (12-1) -28.61 (3)
4. (4) Oregon (12-2) -25.89 (4)
5. (5) Wisconsin (11-3) -24.67 (11)
6. (6) Stanford (11-2) -24.48 (7)
7. (7) Oklahoma (10-3) -21.89 (15)
8. (9) Boise State (12-1) -21.08 (6)
9. (10) Houston (13-1) -19.45 (14)
10. (8) USC (10-2) -18.91 (NR)
11. (12) Arkansas (11-2) -18.15 (5)
12. (11) Michigan (11-2) -16.06 (9)
13. (13) Michigan State (11-3) -15.23 (10)
14. (14) Texas A&M (7-6) -14.95 (32)
15. (18) South Carolina (11-2) -14.53 (8)
16. (15) Baylor (10-3) -12.65 (12)
17. (16) Notre Dame (8-5) -12.64 (36)
18. (20) TCU (11-2) -12.63 (13)
19. (23) Georgia (10-4) -12.02 (20)
20. (NR) Southern Miss (12-2) -11.91 (19)
21. (NR) West Virginia (10-3) -11.71 (18)
22. (22) Texas (8-5) -11.70 (28)
23. (17) Kansas State (10-3) -11.02 (16)
24. (21) Florida State (9-4) -10.70 (23)
25. (24) Missouri (8-5) -9.88 (27)
Dropped Out
(19) California (7-6) -9.64 (NR)
(25) Vanderbilt (6-7) -9.09 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 7
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 3
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 2
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
ACC - 1
Bowl Record by Conference
1. Big 12 (6-2)
2. MAC (4-1)
2. CUSA (4-1)
4. SEC (6-3)
5. Big East (3-2)
6. Ind (1-1)
7. MWC (2-3)
8. Sun Belt (1-2)
9. Big 10 (4-6)
10. Pac 12 (2-5)
11. WAC (0-3)
12. ACC (2-6)
It is interesting to note that the conference with the best overall record in bowl games is the same one that has had the most teams in my rankings all season long. Is it a coincidence? No. This formula treats all teams equally and measures exactly how they should perform against any other team based on what they've already done, which also explains how I was able to predict over 70% of this season's games correctly.
The ACC, which has had only one or two ranked teams all season long according to my formula, ended up with the worst record of any conference in bowl games, highlighted by two embarrassing losses in the BCS, especially Clemson's 70-33 loss to West Virginia, the champion of a conference that has been looked down upon for a while among the BCS hierarchy.
Two of the non-AQ conferences ended up with 4-1 records in bowl games, including a 2-1 record against teams from the AQ conferences. Houston's 30-14 blowout of Penn State proved that the Cougars belonged in the top 10, where they spent a few weeks late in the season, and SMU manhandling Pitt, a co-champion of the Big East, showed that there is not as much separation between the bottom and top as many would like to believe.
Going into the championship game, LSU looked like they would end up on top of my rankings unless they were blown out, and it turns out that that was exactly what happened, dropping a team that had been sitting at #1 for nearly 2 months to #2, but not by a close margin. Alabama was the best team this season, although I wish we could have seen them prove it against Oklahoma State, Oregon, and some of the other top teams. At least they left no doubt with their shutout.
Prediction Results
College Football: 26-9 (.743) 398-158 overall (.716)
Upsets: 4-5 (.444) 49-72 overall (.405)
My upset percentage was not as high as I would have liked this season, but my overall pick percentage for college football rose from 66% last season to nearly 72% this year, which is quite a jump. Next year I'll aim to hit 75%, and I hope to have all of my followers back to watch it happen.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (ESPN)
1. (3) Alabama (12-1) -35.19 (1)
2. (1) LSU (13-1) -32.71 (2)
3. (2) Oklahoma State (12-1) -28.61 (3)
4. (4) Oregon (12-2) -25.89 (4)
5. (5) Wisconsin (11-3) -24.67 (11)
6. (6) Stanford (11-2) -24.48 (7)
7. (7) Oklahoma (10-3) -21.89 (15)
8. (9) Boise State (12-1) -21.08 (6)
9. (10) Houston (13-1) -19.45 (14)
10. (8) USC (10-2) -18.91 (NR)
11. (12) Arkansas (11-2) -18.15 (5)
12. (11) Michigan (11-2) -16.06 (9)
13. (13) Michigan State (11-3) -15.23 (10)
14. (14) Texas A&M (7-6) -14.95 (32)
15. (18) South Carolina (11-2) -14.53 (8)
16. (15) Baylor (10-3) -12.65 (12)
17. (16) Notre Dame (8-5) -12.64 (36)
18. (20) TCU (11-2) -12.63 (13)
19. (23) Georgia (10-4) -12.02 (20)
20. (NR) Southern Miss (12-2) -11.91 (19)
21. (NR) West Virginia (10-3) -11.71 (18)
22. (22) Texas (8-5) -11.70 (28)
23. (17) Kansas State (10-3) -11.02 (16)
24. (21) Florida State (9-4) -10.70 (23)
25. (24) Missouri (8-5) -9.88 (27)
Dropped Out
(19) California (7-6) -9.64 (NR)
(25) Vanderbilt (6-7) -9.09 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 7
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 3
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 2
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
ACC - 1
Bowl Record by Conference
1. Big 12 (6-2)
2. MAC (4-1)
2. CUSA (4-1)
4. SEC (6-3)
5. Big East (3-2)
6. Ind (1-1)
7. MWC (2-3)
8. Sun Belt (1-2)
9. Big 10 (4-6)
10. Pac 12 (2-5)
11. WAC (0-3)
12. ACC (2-6)
It is interesting to note that the conference with the best overall record in bowl games is the same one that has had the most teams in my rankings all season long. Is it a coincidence? No. This formula treats all teams equally and measures exactly how they should perform against any other team based on what they've already done, which also explains how I was able to predict over 70% of this season's games correctly.
The ACC, which has had only one or two ranked teams all season long according to my formula, ended up with the worst record of any conference in bowl games, highlighted by two embarrassing losses in the BCS, especially Clemson's 70-33 loss to West Virginia, the champion of a conference that has been looked down upon for a while among the BCS hierarchy.
Two of the non-AQ conferences ended up with 4-1 records in bowl games, including a 2-1 record against teams from the AQ conferences. Houston's 30-14 blowout of Penn State proved that the Cougars belonged in the top 10, where they spent a few weeks late in the season, and SMU manhandling Pitt, a co-champion of the Big East, showed that there is not as much separation between the bottom and top as many would like to believe.
Going into the championship game, LSU looked like they would end up on top of my rankings unless they were blown out, and it turns out that that was exactly what happened, dropping a team that had been sitting at #1 for nearly 2 months to #2, but not by a close margin. Alabama was the best team this season, although I wish we could have seen them prove it against Oklahoma State, Oregon, and some of the other top teams. At least they left no doubt with their shutout.
Prediction Results
College Football: 26-9 (.743) 398-158 overall (.716)
Upsets: 4-5 (.444) 49-72 overall (.405)
My upset percentage was not as high as I would have liked this season, but my overall pick percentage for college football rose from 66% last season to nearly 72% this year, which is quite a jump. Next year I'll aim to hit 75%, and I hope to have all of my followers back to watch it happen.
Monday, January 9, 2012
College Basketball Rankings - 9 Jan
This week, several of the top 10 teams found themselves on the losing end of games against unranked opponents, and in nearly every case, that upset was predicted right here one week ago. Only three teams remain undefeated, with Syracuse and Baylor from the power conferences and Murray State from the Ohio Valley, which makes them the least likely to lose because they have fewer powerful opponents left to face. All of the upsets have shaken up the rankings, and don't expect the number of upsets to decrease with conference play in full swing. Here are my latest rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (2-0) (15-2) -22.13 (5)
2. (3) Syracuse (2-0) (17-0) -18.51 (1)
3. (2) North Carolina (1-0) (14-2) -17.85 (3)
4. (6) Kansas (2-0) (12-3) -17.67 (10)
5. (10) Michigan State (1-0) (14-2) -17.39 (7)
6. (9) Duke (1-1) (13-2) -16.45 (6)
7. (5) Kentucky (2-0) (15-1) -16.35 (2)
8. (15) UNLV (1-0) (16-2) -15.96 (12)
9. (17) Missouri (1-1) (14-1) -15.95 (9)
10. (8) Indiana (2-0) (15-1) -15.68 (8)
11. (4) Wisconsin (0-2) (12-5) -15.24 (26)
12. (14) Murray State (2-0) (16-0) -13.57 (14)
13. (16) BYU (2-0) (14-4) -13.13 (NR)
14. (7) Saint Mary's (1-0) (14-2) -13.05 (27)
15. (11) Florida (1-1) (12-4) -12.91 (19)
16. (22) Kansas State (1-1) (12-2) -12.75 (18)
17. (NR) Iona (3-0) (13-3) -12.56 (NR)
18. (12) Wichita State (2-0) (12-3) -12.45 (35)
19. (19) Creighton (2-0) (13-2) -12.32 (21)
20. (18) Saint Louis (1-1) (13-3) -12.07 (NR)
21. (NR) Alabama (2-0) (12-3) -11.97 (32)
22. (23) Marquette (0-2) (12-4) -11.30 (24)
23. (NR) California (1-1) (13-4) -11.19 (NR)
24. (20) New Mexico (2-0) (14-2) -11.18 (30)
25. (13) Baylor (2-0) (15-0) -10.78 (4)
Dropped Out
(21) Georgetown (1-1) (13-2) -10.41 (11)
(24) Belmont (2-1) (11-6) -9.98 (NR)
(25) Virginia Tech (0-1) (11-4) -9.12 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 3
Big East - 2
ACC - 2
MWC - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
OVC - 1
MAAC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Michigan State has opened conference play in the most difficult conference with 3 victories, two against top 10-caliber opponents. This week's victim was Wisconsin, who had been ranked #1 in my rankings just two weeks ago, and the fact that the game took place in Madison made the Spartans' victory mean even more. Coincidentally, that game was the only upset I picked this week that didn't come through.
UNLV moved into the top 10 this week after winning their only game on the road by 32 points. Even though that opponent was only Cal State-Bakersfield, the margin by itself is amazing. This week they face a real test on the road at San Diego State, which entered the ESPN poll this week, but still has some ground to make up in my rankings. A big win over the Rebels would help.
Missouri joined my top 10 this week despite losing their first game of the season to Kansas State. The jump was aided by their 38-point victory over Oklahoma, and the loss did not hurt them that much because they were expected to lose, as I correctly predicted last week. Even though Baylor is currently ranked higher, Missouri and the Kansas schools all look like they'll finish ahead of the Bears once conference play has concluded.
BYU continues its strong showing in my rankings despite not earning a single vote in the national polls. Sure, they may have lost Jimmer to the NBA, but Brandon Davies is back and playing like a star, and three of their losses are to teams that are among my top 25. Do not be surprised if the Cougars end Gonzaga's 11-year streak as WCC champions in their first season in the conference.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Miami at (3) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 20
(4) Baylor at (18) Kansas State - Wildcats by 10
(5) Ohio State at Illinois - Buckeyes by 9
Iowa at (7) Michigan State - Spartans by 24
(15) Louisville at Providence - Cardinals by 4
Georgia at (19) Florida - Gators by 23
Northern Iowa at (21) Creighton - Bluejays by 14
Chicago State at (22) San Diego State - Aztecs by 34
(25) Harvard at Monmouth - Crimson by 14
Illinois State at Wichita State - Shockers by 16
Wednesday
(1) Syracuse at Villanova - Orange by 7
(2) Kentucky at Auburn - Wildcats by 13
(9) Missouri at Iowa State - Tigers by 2
(10) Kansas at Texas Tech - Jayhawks by 15
Northwestern at (13) Michigan - Wolverines by 14
Saint John's at (24) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 22
Temple at Saint Louis - Billikens by 13
LSU at Alabama - Crimson Tide by 16
Thursday
(17) Virginia at (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 18
Minnesota at (8) Indiana - Hoosiers by 21
Jacksonville State at (14) Murray State - Racers by 28
Tennessee at (20) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 10
(23) Gonzaga at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 11
Wisconsin at Purdue - Boilermakers by 3
Manhattan at Iona - Gaels by 18
Colorado at California - Golden Bears by 16
Friday
(24) Creighton at Illinois State - Bluejays by 1
Bradley at Wichita State - Shockers by 28
Saturday
Providence at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 29
(2) Kentucky at Tennessee - Wildcats by 5
(3) North Carolina at Florida State - Tar Heels by 4
Oklahoma State at (4) Baylor - Bears by 16
(7) Michigan State at Northwestern - Spartans by 6
Texas at (9) Missouri - Tigers by 15
Iowa State at (10) Kansas - Jayhawks by 20
(12) UNLV at (22) San Diego State - Rebels by 2
(13) Michigan at Iowa - Wolverines by 1
Tennessee Tech at (14) Murray State - Racers by 22
DePaul at (15) Louisville - Cardinals by 20
(16) Connecticut at Notre Dame - Irish by 7
(18) Kansas State at Oklahoma - Wildcats by 1
(19) Florida at South Carolina - Gators by 6
Alabama at (20) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 2
(23) Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount - Bulldogs by 5
Pittsburgh at (24) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 14
George Washington at (25) Harvard - Crimson by 18
Santa Clara at BYU - Cougars by 27
Portland at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 29
Saint Louis at Charlotte - 49ers by 2
New Mexico at Wyoming - Cowboys by 4
Utah at California - Golden Bears by 36
Sunday
(8) Indiana at (5) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 14
(6) Duke at Clemson - Blue Devils by 5
(11) Georgetown at Saint Johns - Hoyas by 5
Southern Illinois at (24) Creighton - Bluejays by 24
Wichita State at Indiana State - Shockers by 6
Nebraska at Wisconsin - Badgers by 24
Loyola-Maryland at Iona - Gaels by 21
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 40-7 (.851) 205-29 overall (.876)
Upsets: 6-1 (.857) 18-4 overall (.818)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (2-0) (15-2) -22.13 (5)
2. (3) Syracuse (2-0) (17-0) -18.51 (1)
3. (2) North Carolina (1-0) (14-2) -17.85 (3)
4. (6) Kansas (2-0) (12-3) -17.67 (10)
5. (10) Michigan State (1-0) (14-2) -17.39 (7)
6. (9) Duke (1-1) (13-2) -16.45 (6)
7. (5) Kentucky (2-0) (15-1) -16.35 (2)
8. (15) UNLV (1-0) (16-2) -15.96 (12)
9. (17) Missouri (1-1) (14-1) -15.95 (9)
10. (8) Indiana (2-0) (15-1) -15.68 (8)
11. (4) Wisconsin (0-2) (12-5) -15.24 (26)
12. (14) Murray State (2-0) (16-0) -13.57 (14)
13. (16) BYU (2-0) (14-4) -13.13 (NR)
14. (7) Saint Mary's (1-0) (14-2) -13.05 (27)
15. (11) Florida (1-1) (12-4) -12.91 (19)
16. (22) Kansas State (1-1) (12-2) -12.75 (18)
17. (NR) Iona (3-0) (13-3) -12.56 (NR)
18. (12) Wichita State (2-0) (12-3) -12.45 (35)
19. (19) Creighton (2-0) (13-2) -12.32 (21)
20. (18) Saint Louis (1-1) (13-3) -12.07 (NR)
21. (NR) Alabama (2-0) (12-3) -11.97 (32)
22. (23) Marquette (0-2) (12-4) -11.30 (24)
23. (NR) California (1-1) (13-4) -11.19 (NR)
24. (20) New Mexico (2-0) (14-2) -11.18 (30)
25. (13) Baylor (2-0) (15-0) -10.78 (4)
Dropped Out
(21) Georgetown (1-1) (13-2) -10.41 (11)
(24) Belmont (2-1) (11-6) -9.98 (NR)
(25) Virginia Tech (0-1) (11-4) -9.12 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 3
Big East - 2
ACC - 2
MWC - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
OVC - 1
MAAC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Michigan State has opened conference play in the most difficult conference with 3 victories, two against top 10-caliber opponents. This week's victim was Wisconsin, who had been ranked #1 in my rankings just two weeks ago, and the fact that the game took place in Madison made the Spartans' victory mean even more. Coincidentally, that game was the only upset I picked this week that didn't come through.
UNLV moved into the top 10 this week after winning their only game on the road by 32 points. Even though that opponent was only Cal State-Bakersfield, the margin by itself is amazing. This week they face a real test on the road at San Diego State, which entered the ESPN poll this week, but still has some ground to make up in my rankings. A big win over the Rebels would help.
Missouri joined my top 10 this week despite losing their first game of the season to Kansas State. The jump was aided by their 38-point victory over Oklahoma, and the loss did not hurt them that much because they were expected to lose, as I correctly predicted last week. Even though Baylor is currently ranked higher, Missouri and the Kansas schools all look like they'll finish ahead of the Bears once conference play has concluded.
BYU continues its strong showing in my rankings despite not earning a single vote in the national polls. Sure, they may have lost Jimmer to the NBA, but Brandon Davies is back and playing like a star, and three of their losses are to teams that are among my top 25. Do not be surprised if the Cougars end Gonzaga's 11-year streak as WCC champions in their first season in the conference.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Miami at (3) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 20
(4) Baylor at (18) Kansas State - Wildcats by 10
(5) Ohio State at Illinois - Buckeyes by 9
Iowa at (7) Michigan State - Spartans by 24
(15) Louisville at Providence - Cardinals by 4
Georgia at (19) Florida - Gators by 23
Northern Iowa at (21) Creighton - Bluejays by 14
Chicago State at (22) San Diego State - Aztecs by 34
(25) Harvard at Monmouth - Crimson by 14
Illinois State at Wichita State - Shockers by 16
Wednesday
(1) Syracuse at Villanova - Orange by 7
(2) Kentucky at Auburn - Wildcats by 13
(9) Missouri at Iowa State - Tigers by 2
(10) Kansas at Texas Tech - Jayhawks by 15
Northwestern at (13) Michigan - Wolverines by 14
Saint John's at (24) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 22
Temple at Saint Louis - Billikens by 13
LSU at Alabama - Crimson Tide by 16
Thursday
(17) Virginia at (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 18
Minnesota at (8) Indiana - Hoosiers by 21
Jacksonville State at (14) Murray State - Racers by 28
Tennessee at (20) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 10
(23) Gonzaga at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 11
Wisconsin at Purdue - Boilermakers by 3
Manhattan at Iona - Gaels by 18
Colorado at California - Golden Bears by 16
Friday
(24) Creighton at Illinois State - Bluejays by 1
Bradley at Wichita State - Shockers by 28
Saturday
Providence at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 29
(2) Kentucky at Tennessee - Wildcats by 5
(3) North Carolina at Florida State - Tar Heels by 4
Oklahoma State at (4) Baylor - Bears by 16
(7) Michigan State at Northwestern - Spartans by 6
Texas at (9) Missouri - Tigers by 15
Iowa State at (10) Kansas - Jayhawks by 20
(12) UNLV at (22) San Diego State - Rebels by 2
(13) Michigan at Iowa - Wolverines by 1
Tennessee Tech at (14) Murray State - Racers by 22
DePaul at (15) Louisville - Cardinals by 20
(16) Connecticut at Notre Dame - Irish by 7
(18) Kansas State at Oklahoma - Wildcats by 1
(19) Florida at South Carolina - Gators by 6
Alabama at (20) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 2
(23) Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount - Bulldogs by 5
Pittsburgh at (24) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 14
George Washington at (25) Harvard - Crimson by 18
Santa Clara at BYU - Cougars by 27
Portland at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 29
Saint Louis at Charlotte - 49ers by 2
New Mexico at Wyoming - Cowboys by 4
Utah at California - Golden Bears by 36
Sunday
(8) Indiana at (5) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 14
(6) Duke at Clemson - Blue Devils by 5
(11) Georgetown at Saint Johns - Hoyas by 5
Southern Illinois at (24) Creighton - Bluejays by 24
Wichita State at Indiana State - Shockers by 6
Nebraska at Wisconsin - Badgers by 24
Loyola-Maryland at Iona - Gaels by 21
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 40-7 (.851) 205-29 overall (.876)
Upsets: 6-1 (.857) 18-4 overall (.818)
Thursday, January 5, 2012
NFL Rankings and Playoff Predictions
With all of the excitement and possibilities for the playoffs entering the final weekend, the whole thing ended up a little anticlimactic, with no team changing positions in the final week. There are, however, a lot of very good matchups coming up in the playoffs, even if only a few teams have a realistic chance of even playing in the Super Bowl. Here are my rankings of the 12 remaining teams, along with various odds related to the upcoming postseason.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (13-3) -12.95 (1)
2. Green Bay (15-1) -10.40 (2)
3. New England (13-3) -9.56 (4)
4. San Francisco (13-3) -8.22 (3)
6. Detroit (10-6) -6.14 (6)
7. Pittsburgh (12-4) -4.80 (7)
8. Baltimore (12-4) -4.41 (9)
9. Atlanta (10-6) -3.97 (8)
10. NY Giants (9-7) -2.56 (13)
12. Houston (10-6) -2.12 (10)
18. Cincinnati (9-7) 0.21 (17)
28. Denver (8-8) 7.18 (28)
Best Teams Left Out
5. Philadelphia (8-8) -7.77 (5)
11. Seattle (7-9) -2.38 (11)
13. San Diego (8-8) -1.76 (16)
14. Dallas (8-8) -0.90 (12)
15. Miami (6-10) -0.85 (15)
16. NY Jets (8-8) -0.39 (18)
Odds of Making the Conference Championship
1. New England - 83.1%
2. Green Bay - 79.7%
3. Baltimore - 67.0%
4. San Francisco - 51.7%
5. New Orleans - 43.3%
6. Pittsburgh - 23.4%
7. Houston - 22.2%
8. NY Giants - 10.1%
Odds of Making the Super Bowl
1. New England - 63.8%
2. Green Bay - 48.7%
3. New Orleans - 24.1%
4. San Francisco- 21.4%
5. Baltimore - 20.7%
6. Pittsburgh - 9.2%
7. Houston - 6.1%
Odds of Winning the Super Bowl
1. New England - 30.5%
2. Green Bay - 28.7%
3. New Orleans - 16.0%
4. San Francisco - 11.2%
5. Baltimore - 6.8%
Odds of each Conference Winning the Super Bowl
NFC - 58.1%
AFC - 41.9%
Odds of each Seed Winning Super Bowl
#1 - 59.2%
#2 - 18.0%
#3 - 17.6%
#4 - 0.6%
#5 - 4.0%
#6 - 0.9%
Odds of Super Bowl XLV Rematch
Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh - 4.5%
Team with Worst Playoff Odds
Denver
Wins 1st round - 24.5%
Makes AFC Championship - 0.5%
Makes Super Bowl - 0.03%
Wins Super Bowl - 0%
Random Odds
For the Birds - Baltimore vs. Atlanta - 0.4%
Here, Kitty, Kitty - Detroit vs. Cincinnati - 0.01%
O, Pioneers - San Francisco vs. New England - 13.7%
First Timers - Houston vs. Detroit - 0.09%
Guaranteed First-time Winner - Detroit or Atlanta vs. Houston or Cincinnati - 0.3%
Battle of Harbaugh - San Francisco vs. Baltimore - 4.4%
Offensive Shootout - New Orleans, Green Bay, or Detroit vs. New England - 47.3%
Defensive Struggle - Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Houston vs. San Francisco - 7.7%
Super Bowl MVP Faceoff - 69.9%
"New"bies - New Orleans or New York vs. New England - 16.5%
Big "D" - Denver vs. Detroit - 0.0005% (also least likely matchup)
Playoff Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
First Round
Cincinnati at Houston - Texans by 6
Detroit at New Orleans - Saints by 10
Atlanta at NY Giants - Giants by 2
Pittsburgh at Denver - Steelers by 9
Second Round
NY Giants at Green Bay - Packers by 11
New Orleans at San Francisco - Saints by 1
Pittsburgh at New England - Patriots by 8
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 6
Conference Championships
New Orleans at Green Bay - Packers by 1
Baltimore at New England - Patriots by 9
Super Bowl
Green Bay vs. New England - Packers by 1
New England may have the best odds of winning the Super Bowl, but that is only because they have the easiest path to get there. The AFC is a wasteland this year, with Houston starting a third-string quarterback, Pittsburgh missing Mendenhall and a hobbled quarterback, Cincinnati starring two rookies, and Denver with a quarterback who passes for less than 125 yards per game at less than a 50% completion percentage.
New England feels like a pretty safe pick to be in Indianapolis in February, but Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Francisco all have a decent chance to represent the NFC. If the Packers or Saints make it, look for them to take their second title in 3 seasons. If the 49ers somehow get in, look for Tom Brady to get another Super Bowl MVP.
Prediction Results
NFL: 12-4 (.750) 168-88 overall (.656)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 25-22 overall (.532)
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (13-3) -12.95 (1)
2. Green Bay (15-1) -10.40 (2)
3. New England (13-3) -9.56 (4)
4. San Francisco (13-3) -8.22 (3)
6. Detroit (10-6) -6.14 (6)
7. Pittsburgh (12-4) -4.80 (7)
8. Baltimore (12-4) -4.41 (9)
9. Atlanta (10-6) -3.97 (8)
10. NY Giants (9-7) -2.56 (13)
12. Houston (10-6) -2.12 (10)
18. Cincinnati (9-7) 0.21 (17)
28. Denver (8-8) 7.18 (28)
Best Teams Left Out
5. Philadelphia (8-8) -7.77 (5)
11. Seattle (7-9) -2.38 (11)
13. San Diego (8-8) -1.76 (16)
14. Dallas (8-8) -0.90 (12)
15. Miami (6-10) -0.85 (15)
16. NY Jets (8-8) -0.39 (18)
Odds of Making the Conference Championship
1. New England - 83.1%
2. Green Bay - 79.7%
3. Baltimore - 67.0%
4. San Francisco - 51.7%
5. New Orleans - 43.3%
6. Pittsburgh - 23.4%
7. Houston - 22.2%
8. NY Giants - 10.1%
Odds of Making the Super Bowl
1. New England - 63.8%
2. Green Bay - 48.7%
3. New Orleans - 24.1%
4. San Francisco- 21.4%
5. Baltimore - 20.7%
6. Pittsburgh - 9.2%
7. Houston - 6.1%
Odds of Winning the Super Bowl
1. New England - 30.5%
2. Green Bay - 28.7%
3. New Orleans - 16.0%
4. San Francisco - 11.2%
5. Baltimore - 6.8%
Odds of each Conference Winning the Super Bowl
NFC - 58.1%
AFC - 41.9%
Odds of each Seed Winning Super Bowl
#1 - 59.2%
#2 - 18.0%
#3 - 17.6%
#4 - 0.6%
#5 - 4.0%
#6 - 0.9%
Odds of Super Bowl XLV Rematch
Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh - 4.5%
Team with Worst Playoff Odds
Denver
Wins 1st round - 24.5%
Makes AFC Championship - 0.5%
Makes Super Bowl - 0.03%
Wins Super Bowl - 0%
Random Odds
For the Birds - Baltimore vs. Atlanta - 0.4%
Here, Kitty, Kitty - Detroit vs. Cincinnati - 0.01%
O, Pioneers - San Francisco vs. New England - 13.7%
First Timers - Houston vs. Detroit - 0.09%
Guaranteed First-time Winner - Detroit or Atlanta vs. Houston or Cincinnati - 0.3%
Battle of Harbaugh - San Francisco vs. Baltimore - 4.4%
Offensive Shootout - New Orleans, Green Bay, or Detroit vs. New England - 47.3%
Defensive Struggle - Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Houston vs. San Francisco - 7.7%
Super Bowl MVP Faceoff - 69.9%
"New"bies - New Orleans or New York vs. New England - 16.5%
Big "D" - Denver vs. Detroit - 0.0005% (also least likely matchup)
Playoff Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
First Round
Cincinnati at Houston - Texans by 6
Detroit at New Orleans - Saints by 10
Atlanta at NY Giants - Giants by 2
Pittsburgh at Denver - Steelers by 9
Second Round
NY Giants at Green Bay - Packers by 11
New Orleans at San Francisco - Saints by 1
Pittsburgh at New England - Patriots by 8
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 6
Conference Championships
New Orleans at Green Bay - Packers by 1
Baltimore at New England - Patriots by 9
Super Bowl
Green Bay vs. New England - Packers by 1
New England may have the best odds of winning the Super Bowl, but that is only because they have the easiest path to get there. The AFC is a wasteland this year, with Houston starting a third-string quarterback, Pittsburgh missing Mendenhall and a hobbled quarterback, Cincinnati starring two rookies, and Denver with a quarterback who passes for less than 125 yards per game at less than a 50% completion percentage.
New England feels like a pretty safe pick to be in Indianapolis in February, but Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Francisco all have a decent chance to represent the NFC. If the Packers or Saints make it, look for them to take their second title in 3 seasons. If the 49ers somehow get in, look for Tom Brady to get another Super Bowl MVP.
Prediction Results
NFL: 12-4 (.750) 168-88 overall (.656)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 25-22 overall (.532)
Monday, January 2, 2012
College Basketball Rankings - 2 Jan
Once again, my predictions on which teams would be upset this week proved to be largely correct, with 4 correct upset picks with one near miss tarnishing another perfect week. All of my picks are based on these statistical rankings, which compares each team to every other team in the nation by comparing how each team should fare in each game with their actual results. Wisconsin, which had been #1 for 3 weeks, had a disappointing performance against Iowa, which has allowed another team to overtake them for the top spot. Here are the updated rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (4) Ohio State (1-1) (13-2) -20.14 (7)
2. (3) North Carolina (2-0) (13-2) -18.98 (4)
3. (5) Syracuse (2-0) (15-0) -18.73 (1)
4. (1) Wisconsin (1-1) (12-3) -18.12 (19)
5. (6) Kentucky (2-0) (13-1) -17.61 (2)
6. (15) Kansas (2-0) (10-3) -17.18 (15)
7. (22) Saint Mary's (2-0) (13-2) -16.54 (27)
8. (2) Indiana (1-1) (13-1) -16.51 (12)
9. (16) Duke (2-0) (12-1) -16.48 (3)
10. (12) Michigan State (2-0) (13-2) -15.66 (11)
11. (9) Florida (1-1) (11-3) -14.88 (14)
12. (19) Wichita State (1-1) (10-3) -14.84 (NR)
13. (8) Baylor (1-0) (13-0) -14.17 (5)
14. (NR) Murray State (1-0) (14-0) -14.13 (18)
15. (11) UNLV (2-0) (15-2) -13.79 (17)
16. (13) BYU (2-1) (12-4) -13.56 (NR)
17. (14) Missouri (1-0) (13-0) -13.32 (6)
18. (21) Saint Louis (1-1) (12-2) -13.12 (36)
19. (10) Creighton (1-1) (11-2) -12.71 (24)
20. (NR) New Mexico (2-0) (12-2) -12.56 (29)
21. (20) Georgetown (2-0) (12-1) -11.91 (9)
22. (NR) Kansas State (1-0) (11-1) -11.38 (22)
23. (7) Marquette (1-1) (12-2) -10.76 (20)
24. (NR) Belmont (1-0) (9-5) -10.69 (NR)
25. (NR) Virginia Tech (1-0) (11-3) -10.25 (NR)
Dropped Out
(23) Texas (1-0) (10-3) -9.490 (NR)
(24) Harvard (2-0) (12-1) -9.486 (21)
(17) Iona (0-1) (10-3) -9.40 (NR)
(25) California (2-0) (12-3) -9.04 (NR)
(18) Ohio (1-0) (12-1) -8.25 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
ACC - 3
Big East - 3
SEC - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
MWC - 2
OVC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
Ohio State took over the top spot despite losing on Saturday to Indiana. The reason that they were able to move up was that they were on the road, and Indiana was ranked ahead of the Buckeyes in my rankings entering last week. Their two losses are both on the road at top 8 teams, but they also own victories over Florida and Duke, who are both in the top 11. The Buckeyes appear to be the best team so far in a very deep conference.
Kansas won both of its games this week by an average of 40 points, and although neither was against a notable opponent, the fact that they were able to dominate that way was enough to earn them a spot in the top ten. They were picked to beat Howard and North Dakota by about 30 points each, so that extra 10 points was huge.
Saint Mary's had one of its biggest tests of the season this week when BYU came to visit, and they gained a lot of credibility by beating up on a team that has not been blown out by anyone but Wisconsin this year. They followed that up with a 29-point road victory, and while the opponent was just Pepperdine, any blowout on the road is impressive.
Just like last time that Indiana pulled off a huge upset, they dropped in my overall rankings immediately afterward. Both times Indiana should have won those upsets by more than they did, and they also lost to Michigan State this week by more than they should have. Still, this team is one that you need to keep your eye on throughout the season and deep into March, because they've proven they can win the big ones.
Marquette took a huge tumble this week after Vanderbilt came to town and took the Golden Eagles out behind their own woodshed. After 12 minutes of play, the Commodores led the home team 35-8, and Marquette was never able to fully recover. Their only quality win of the season, over Wisconsin, also took a hit this week when the Badgers were upset unexpectedly by a very weak Iowa team in Madison.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Arkansas-Little Rock at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 27
Oklahoma at (6) Missouri - Tigers by 14
Nebraska at (7) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 32
(8) Connecticut at Seton Hall - Pirates by 10
(10) Louisville at Saint Johns - Cardinals by 4
(11) Michigan State at (19) Wisconsin - Badgers by 11
UAB at (14) Florida - Gators by 23
(21) Harvard at Fordham - Crimson by 8
Drake at (24) Creighton - Bluejays by 25
Houston Baptist at New Mexico - Lobos by 36
Wednesday
(1) Syracuse at Providence - Orange by 11
(3) Duke at Temple - Owls by 1
(20) Marquette at (9) Georgetown - Hoyas by 10
(22) Kansas State at (15) Kansas - Jayhawks by 14
Eastern Kentucky at (18) Murray State - Racers by 25
Saint Louis at Dayton - Billikens by 2
Wichita State at Evansville - Shockers by 7
Belmont at Jacksonville - Bruins by 6
Thursday
(13) Michigan at (12) Indiana - Hoosiers by 21
(17) UNLV at Cal State-Bakersfield - Rebels by 6
BYU at Loyola Marymount - Cougars by 9
Saint Mary's at San Diego - Gaels by 19
Friday
Lipscomb at Belmont - Bruins by 21
Saturday
(20) Marquette at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 17
South Carolina at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 28
(3) Duke at Georgia Tech - Blue Devils by 7
Boston College at (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 39
(5) Baylor at Texas Tech - Bears by 9
(6) Missouri at (22) Kansas State - Wildcats by 7
(7) Ohio State at Iowa - Buckeyes by 10
(8) Connecticut at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 3
(9) Georgetown at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 5
Notre Dame at (10) Louisville - Cardinals by 11
(14) Florida at Tennessee - Gators by 4
(15) Kansas at Oklahoma - Jayhawks by 1
(16) Mississippi State at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 6
(18) Murray State at Austin Peay - Racers by 7
Dartmouth at (21) Harvard - Crimson by 27
Miami at (23) Virginia - Cavaliers by 6
(24) Creighton at Bradley - Bluejays by 10
San Francisco at BYU - Cougars by 27
George Washington at Saint Louis - Billikens by 26
Wichita State at Southern Illinois - Shockers by 12
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - Hokies by 4
North Dakota at New Mexico - Lobos by 27
Sunday
(11) Wisconsin at (16) Michigan - Badgers by 6
(15) Indiana at Penn State - Hoosiers by 11
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 43-8 (.843) 165-22 overall (.882)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 12-3 overall (.800)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (4) Ohio State (1-1) (13-2) -20.14 (7)
2. (3) North Carolina (2-0) (13-2) -18.98 (4)
3. (5) Syracuse (2-0) (15-0) -18.73 (1)
4. (1) Wisconsin (1-1) (12-3) -18.12 (19)
5. (6) Kentucky (2-0) (13-1) -17.61 (2)
6. (15) Kansas (2-0) (10-3) -17.18 (15)
7. (22) Saint Mary's (2-0) (13-2) -16.54 (27)
8. (2) Indiana (1-1) (13-1) -16.51 (12)
9. (16) Duke (2-0) (12-1) -16.48 (3)
10. (12) Michigan State (2-0) (13-2) -15.66 (11)
11. (9) Florida (1-1) (11-3) -14.88 (14)
12. (19) Wichita State (1-1) (10-3) -14.84 (NR)
13. (8) Baylor (1-0) (13-0) -14.17 (5)
14. (NR) Murray State (1-0) (14-0) -14.13 (18)
15. (11) UNLV (2-0) (15-2) -13.79 (17)
16. (13) BYU (2-1) (12-4) -13.56 (NR)
17. (14) Missouri (1-0) (13-0) -13.32 (6)
18. (21) Saint Louis (1-1) (12-2) -13.12 (36)
19. (10) Creighton (1-1) (11-2) -12.71 (24)
20. (NR) New Mexico (2-0) (12-2) -12.56 (29)
21. (20) Georgetown (2-0) (12-1) -11.91 (9)
22. (NR) Kansas State (1-0) (11-1) -11.38 (22)
23. (7) Marquette (1-1) (12-2) -10.76 (20)
24. (NR) Belmont (1-0) (9-5) -10.69 (NR)
25. (NR) Virginia Tech (1-0) (11-3) -10.25 (NR)
Dropped Out
(23) Texas (1-0) (10-3) -9.490 (NR)
(24) Harvard (2-0) (12-1) -9.486 (21)
(17) Iona (0-1) (10-3) -9.40 (NR)
(25) California (2-0) (12-3) -9.04 (NR)
(18) Ohio (1-0) (12-1) -8.25 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
ACC - 3
Big East - 3
SEC - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
MWC - 2
OVC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
Ohio State took over the top spot despite losing on Saturday to Indiana. The reason that they were able to move up was that they were on the road, and Indiana was ranked ahead of the Buckeyes in my rankings entering last week. Their two losses are both on the road at top 8 teams, but they also own victories over Florida and Duke, who are both in the top 11. The Buckeyes appear to be the best team so far in a very deep conference.
Kansas won both of its games this week by an average of 40 points, and although neither was against a notable opponent, the fact that they were able to dominate that way was enough to earn them a spot in the top ten. They were picked to beat Howard and North Dakota by about 30 points each, so that extra 10 points was huge.
Saint Mary's had one of its biggest tests of the season this week when BYU came to visit, and they gained a lot of credibility by beating up on a team that has not been blown out by anyone but Wisconsin this year. They followed that up with a 29-point road victory, and while the opponent was just Pepperdine, any blowout on the road is impressive.
Just like last time that Indiana pulled off a huge upset, they dropped in my overall rankings immediately afterward. Both times Indiana should have won those upsets by more than they did, and they also lost to Michigan State this week by more than they should have. Still, this team is one that you need to keep your eye on throughout the season and deep into March, because they've proven they can win the big ones.
Marquette took a huge tumble this week after Vanderbilt came to town and took the Golden Eagles out behind their own woodshed. After 12 minutes of play, the Commodores led the home team 35-8, and Marquette was never able to fully recover. Their only quality win of the season, over Wisconsin, also took a hit this week when the Badgers were upset unexpectedly by a very weak Iowa team in Madison.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Arkansas-Little Rock at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 27
Oklahoma at (6) Missouri - Tigers by 14
Nebraska at (7) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 32
(8) Connecticut at Seton Hall - Pirates by 10
(10) Louisville at Saint Johns - Cardinals by 4
(11) Michigan State at (19) Wisconsin - Badgers by 11
UAB at (14) Florida - Gators by 23
(21) Harvard at Fordham - Crimson by 8
Drake at (24) Creighton - Bluejays by 25
Houston Baptist at New Mexico - Lobos by 36
Wednesday
(1) Syracuse at Providence - Orange by 11
(3) Duke at Temple - Owls by 1
(20) Marquette at (9) Georgetown - Hoyas by 10
(22) Kansas State at (15) Kansas - Jayhawks by 14
Eastern Kentucky at (18) Murray State - Racers by 25
Saint Louis at Dayton - Billikens by 2
Wichita State at Evansville - Shockers by 7
Belmont at Jacksonville - Bruins by 6
Thursday
(13) Michigan at (12) Indiana - Hoosiers by 21
(17) UNLV at Cal State-Bakersfield - Rebels by 6
BYU at Loyola Marymount - Cougars by 9
Saint Mary's at San Diego - Gaels by 19
Friday
Lipscomb at Belmont - Bruins by 21
Saturday
(20) Marquette at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 17
South Carolina at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 28
(3) Duke at Georgia Tech - Blue Devils by 7
Boston College at (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 39
(5) Baylor at Texas Tech - Bears by 9
(6) Missouri at (22) Kansas State - Wildcats by 7
(7) Ohio State at Iowa - Buckeyes by 10
(8) Connecticut at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 3
(9) Georgetown at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 5
Notre Dame at (10) Louisville - Cardinals by 11
(14) Florida at Tennessee - Gators by 4
(15) Kansas at Oklahoma - Jayhawks by 1
(16) Mississippi State at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 6
(18) Murray State at Austin Peay - Racers by 7
Dartmouth at (21) Harvard - Crimson by 27
Miami at (23) Virginia - Cavaliers by 6
(24) Creighton at Bradley - Bluejays by 10
San Francisco at BYU - Cougars by 27
George Washington at Saint Louis - Billikens by 26
Wichita State at Southern Illinois - Shockers by 12
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - Hokies by 4
North Dakota at New Mexico - Lobos by 27
Sunday
(11) Wisconsin at (16) Michigan - Badgers by 6
(15) Indiana at Penn State - Hoosiers by 11
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 43-8 (.843) 165-22 overall (.882)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 12-3 overall (.800)
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